Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WizeGuy]

8 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

I've heard that it's actually good to get a little bit of a reaction from the vaccine because it means there was a immune response.  Is there any truth to that?

My grandma didn't feel much of anything.  Should I be nervous?

My grandma had it easy as well. I take solace in the fact that all the data coming out of Israel points to these vaccines being incredibly effective- even in the elderly. 

[WizeGuy]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

Boom! Peer reviewed study by a reputable publisher with 1.2 million participants.

"During the period from 14 to 20 days after the first dose, the estimated vaccine effectiveness for documented infection was 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51); symptomatic Covid-19 illness, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63); hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86); severe illness, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80); and death, 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100)."

"During the period from 21 to 27 days after the first dose, the estimated effectiveness for these outcomes was 60% (95% CI, 53 to 66), 66% (95% CI, 57 to 73), 78% (95% CI, 61 to 91), 80% (95% CI, 59 to 94), and 84% (95% CI, 44 to 100), respectively."

"In the follow-up period starting 7 days after the second dose, the vaccine effectiveness for documented infections, symptomatic illness, hospitalization, and severe disease was 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95), 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98), 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100), and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively."

"The estimated vaccine effectiveness for the asymptomatic infection proxy was 29% (95% CI, 17 to 39) during the period from 14 to 20 days after the first dose, 52% (95% CI, 41 to 60) 21 to 27 days after the first dose, and 90% (95% CI, 83 to 94) 7 or more days after the second dose (Table S3 and Fig. S5)."

Incredible results. It's 90% effective at preventing transmission. I think I may have a beer at the bar soon with these results. With regulations in place such as limited capacity and mask usage while moving around + me being fully vaccinated for over a month now= confidence I won't be infected by COVID.

The numbers don't lie, people. These vaccines are incredibly effective.

[TVScout]

Free updates, the lede:

Moderna says new version of vaccine is tailored to quell infection by South Africa variant.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/24/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

Boom! Peer reviewed study by a reputable publisher with 1.2 million participants.

"During the period from 14 to 20 days after the first dose, the estimated vaccine effectiveness for documented infection was 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51); symptomatic Covid-19 illness, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63); hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86); severe illness, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80); and death, 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100)."

"During the period from 21 to 27 days after the first dose, the estimated effectiveness for these outcomes was 60% (95% CI, 53 to 66), 66% (95% CI, 57 to 73), 78% (95% CI, 61 to 91), 80% (95% CI, 59 to 94), and 84% (95% CI, 44 to 100), respectively."

"In the follow-up period starting 7 days after the second dose, the vaccine effectiveness for documented infections, symptomatic illness, hospitalization, and severe disease was 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95), 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98), 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100), and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively."

"The estimated vaccine effectiveness for the asymptomatic infection proxy was 29% (95% CI, 17 to 39) during the period from 14 to 20 days after the first dose, 52% (95% CI, 41 to 60) 21 to 27 days after the first dose, and 90% (95% CI, 83 to 94) 7 or more days after the second dose (Table S3 and Fig. S5)."

Incredible results. It's 90% effective at preventing transmission. I think I may have a beer at the bar soon with these results. With regulations in place such as limited capacity and mask usage while moving around + me being fully vaccinated for over a month now= confidence I won't be infected by COVID.

The numbers don't lie, people. These vaccines are incredibly effective.

Do we have anything like this pertaining to Moderna or can we assume that since it's an mRNA, it will be the same?

[BobbyPhil1781]

Looks like we'll be hitting that plateau soon.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/14-day-change-cases

I have visited this site daily and for the past month, it's been nothing but yellow for 90% of the map if not more.  A few red sprinkled in but usually states that have a very low case count anyway so they basically have nowhere to go but up and the amounts are fairly small.

Now that we're seeing a lot of grey, I anticipate that the plateau is coming. Is this off-base to assume?

370k currently infectious according to https://reproduction.live/world/US and an R value of .71

[MWil23]

2nd dose incoming 2 weeks from tomorrow, and the nurse told us to brace ourselves for a rough 24-48 hours afterwards. 

[squire12]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

2nd dose incoming 2 weeks from tomorrow, and the nurse told us to brace ourselves for a rough 24-48 hours afterwards. 

tell your wife to get ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@MWil23 is going to be large and in charge!!!!!!!!!!!

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

tell your wife to get ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@MWil23 is going to be large and in charge!!!!!!!!!!!

Is there a size bigger than huge?  

[WizeGuy]

17 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Do we have anything like this pertaining to Moderna or can we assume that since it's an mRNA, it will be the same?

We do not. Pfizer is able to obtain this data due to giving a ton of doses to Israel in return for large scale data on the effects of this vaccine in the real world. They are unable to do this in the US or Europe due to different regulations on patient privacy (I don't really know the specifics here).

I'd assume Moderna would show similar results, but that's a better question for @ramssuperbowl99 @Shanedorf

[ramssuperbowl99]

46 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

We do not. Pfizer is able to obtain this data due to giving a ton of doses to Israel in return for large scale data on the effects of this vaccine in the real world. They are unable to do this in the US or Europe due to different regulations on patient privacy (I don't really know the specifics here).

I'd assume Moderna would show similar results, but that's a better question for @ramssuperbowl99 @Shanedorf

This is all my opinion, since like you said, we don't have a similar study for Moderna.

In general, I think the CDC, and I'll particularly call out Dr. Fauci, have really tried to combat the bad faith, anti-science subculture in America by only reporting what they can directly prove. I'm assuming part of this has been the reaction from that population to comments like the January, "don't wear masks" stuff that we still hear about. Anyone looking at that with a shred of intellectual honestly would realize the CDC's primary concern was making sure when someone's dad has a heart attack, his cardiologist's coffee breath wasn't going directly into his open chest cavity, but people still quote that in bad faith as an excuse to not wear a mask.

Applying that here, simply with general concepts of how infection works and what we've seen so far, there's nothing that says we should expect vaccinated people to be asymptomatic carries in any significant level. Viruses replicate through infection, vaccines prevent infection, and that means vaccines prevent replication. Since the likelihood of COVID infection is determined by viral load, which is dependent on viral replication, it just stands to reason that once you're vaccinated, you're not going to pass it on at any real rate. Could it happen where you shake hands with an infected person and a small amount of virus sticks on your hand, doesn't bind to your skin cells, and then when you shake hands with someone non-vaccinated it transfers? Yes, it's possible. Is it likely or something we should worry about? In my opinion, no.

But, there's a game theory element to this because of the audience. What if Fauci comes on TV and says all of that, and he's right? Well, we get a few weeks of relaxation mentally. But what if he's wrong? Well now until the end of time you're going to have people saying "well I don't care if I wear a mask or not because I'm vaccinated and Fauci said it'd be okay".  My take is he's done the math of the risk-reward and is approaching this like a deposition.

And the price we all pay for that is that the general public's fear level about spreading even with a vaccine is going to stay super high. I got a hair cut this week, because I'm 2 weeks out from my second shot, and my stylist was terrified that this was never going to end. It's frustrating for me personally, because there's a version of this where we can teach concepts so that people can apply them - which obviously I love doing- instead of just regurgitating numbers

[WizeGuy]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This is all my opinion, since like you said, we don't have a similar study for Moderna.

In general, I think the CDC, and I'll particularly call out Dr. Fauci, have really tried to combat the bad faith, anti-science subculture in America by only reporting what they can directly prove. I'm assuming part of this has been the reaction from that population to comments like the January, "don't wear masks" stuff that we still hear about. Anyone looking at that with a shred of intellectual honestly would realize the CDC's primary concern was making sure when someone's dad has a heart attack, his cardiologist's coffee breath wasn't going directly into his open chest cavity, but people still quote that in bad faith as an excuse to not wear a mask.

Applying that here, simply with general concepts of how infection works and what we've seen so far, there's nothing that says we should expect vaccinated people to be asymptomatic carries in any significant level. Viruses replicate through infection, vaccines prevent infection, and that means vaccines prevent replication. Since the likelihood of COVID infection is determined by viral load, which is dependent on viral replication, it just stands to reason that once you're vaccinated, you're not going to pass it on at any real rate. Could it happen where you shake hands with an infected person and a small amount of virus sticks on your hand, doesn't bind to your skin cells, and then when you shake hands with someone non-vaccinated it transfers? Yes, it's possible. Is it likely or something we should worry about? In my opinion, no.

But, there's a game theory element to this because of the audience. What if Fauci comes on TV and says all of that, and he's right? Well, we get a few weeks of relaxation mentally. But what if he's wrong? Well now until the end of time you're going to have people saying "well I don't care if I wear a mask or not because I'm vaccinated and Fauci said it'd be okay".  My take is he's done the math of the risk-reward and is approaching this like a deposition.

And the price we all pay for that is that the general public's fear level about spreading even with a vaccine is going to stay super high. I got a hair cut this week, because I'm 2 weeks out from my second shot, and my stylist was terrified that this was never going to end. It's frustrating for me personally, because there's a version of this where we can teach concepts so that people can apply them - which obviously I love doing- instead of just regurgitating numbers

Ive noticed a lot of people, even those who supported Fauci in 2020, turn on him this year due to his conservative approach to things. 

 

For example, he said we may still need masks in 2022. People jumped down his throat for saying that, but he was asked directly if we're going to need masks in 2022, and he said it's possible, but things should continue to get better every month. The headlines swarmed the 'it's possible' line because they knew it would draw views. The media really loves to fuel the fire, and is rarely ever held accountable. 

I personally think we're going to be approaching a strong sense of normal by summer, and be completely back to normal by fall, but I do think there's a very slight possibility not enough people take the vaccine, the virus continues to spread, and we have a mutation that evades vaccine more effectively.That, coupled with a tough flu season, could lead to another moderate surge in which it may be wise to mask up. This is coming from a layman, though, so my concept of science is incredibly basic.

The one thing I believe is for certain- a majority of vaccinated people are not going to wait long for the anti vaxxers to jump on board with getting vaccinated. The fatigue is real, and even masks is the hill people are willing to die on. Im just glad a majority of my family and friends are on board with getting vaccinated. 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by WizeGuy

[WizeGuy]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This is all my opinion, since like you said, we don't have a similar study for Moderna.

In general, I think the CDC, and I'll particularly call out Dr. Fauci, have really tried to combat the bad faith, anti-science subculture in America by only reporting what they can directly prove. I'm assuming part of this has been the reaction from that population to comments like the January, "don't wear masks" stuff that we still hear about. Anyone looking at that with a shred of intellectual honestly would realize the CDC's primary concern was making sure when someone's dad has a heart attack, his cardiologist's coffee breath wasn't going directly into his open chest cavity, but people still quote that in bad faith as an excuse to not wear a mask.

Applying that here, simply with general concepts of how infection works and what we've seen so far, there's nothing that says we should expect vaccinated people to be asymptomatic carries in any significant level. Viruses replicate through infection, vaccines prevent infection, and that means vaccines prevent replication. Since the likelihood of COVID infection is determined by viral load, which is dependent on viral replication, it just stands to reason that once you're vaccinated, you're not going to pass it on at any real rate. Could it happen where you shake hands with an infected person and a small amount of virus sticks on your hand, doesn't bind to your skin cells, and then when you shake hands with someone non-vaccinated it transfers? Yes, it's possible. Is it likely or something we should worry about? In my opinion, no.

But, there's a game theory element to this because of the audience. What if Fauci comes on TV and says all of that, and he's right? Well, we get a few weeks of relaxation mentally. But what if he's wrong? Well now until the end of time you're going to have people saying "well I don't care if I wear a mask or not because I'm vaccinated and Fauci said it'd be okay".  My take is he's done the math of the risk-reward and is approaching this like a deposition.

And the price we all pay for that is that the general public's fear level about spreading even with a vaccine is going to stay super high. I got a hair cut this week, because I'm 2 weeks out from my second shot, and my stylist was terrified that this was never going to end. It's frustrating for me personally, because there's a version of this where we can teach concepts so that people can apply them - which obviously I love doing- instead of just regurgitating numbers

Also, my wife who is a scientist studying ARDS (not a virologist, but still has way more knowledge regarding sciency stuff than 95% of the population) has been saying the same thing regarding transmission, but admits we needed more data before I can go to the bar for a brew as she's not yet vaccinated. Thank god for Israel!

[ramssuperbowl99]

34 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Ive noticed a lot of people, even those who supported Fauci in 2020, turn on him this year due to his conservative approach to things. 

 

For example, he said we may still need masks in 2022. People jumped down his throat for saying that, but he was asked directly if we're going to need masks in 2022, and he said it's possible, but things should continue to get better every month. The headlines swarmed the 'it's possible' line because they knew it would draw views. The media really loves to fuel the fire, and is rarely ever held accountable. 

I personally think we're going to be approaching a strong sense of normal by summer, and be completely back to normal by fall, but I do think there's a very slight possibility not enough people take the vaccine, the virus continues to spread, and we have a mutation that evades vaccine more effectively.That, coupled with a tough flu season, could lead to another moderate surge in which it may be wise to mask up. This is coming from a layman, though, so my concept of science is incredibly basic.

The one thing I believe is for certain- a majority of vaccinated people are not going to wait long for the anti vaxxers to jump on board with getting vaccinated. The fatigue is real, and even masks is the hill people are willing to die on. Im just glad a majority of my family and friends are on board with getting vaccinated. 

 

I don't say anything as a criticism of Dr. Fauci personally, and I hope my post isn't viewed as me turning on him or anything like that. I get what he's doing and I understand why he's doing it. My frustrations are with the situation he finds himself in, and more generally that scientists feel powerless to reassure people with 99.999% confidence because of how segments of the population react if the 0.001% happens. The guy has been through work stress that I can't even imagine this past year; I have nothing but empathy for him.

[BobbyPhil1781]

4 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Applying that here, simply with general concepts of how infection works and what we've seen so far, there's nothing that says we should expect vaccinated people to be asymptomatic carries in any significant level. Viruses replicate through infection, vaccines prevent infection, and that means vaccines prevent replication. Since the likelihood of COVID infection is determined by viral load, which is dependent on viral replication, it just stands to reason that once you're vaccinated, you're not going to pass it on at any real rate. Could it happen where you shake hands with an infected person and a small amount of virus sticks on your hand, doesn't bind to your skin cells, and then when you shake hands with someone non-vaccinated it transfers? Yes, it's possible. Is it likely or something we should worry about? In my opinion, no.

Can't we apply this logic to those that have already been infected as well? This is what I suggested prior but didn't really get any responses. Maybe I'm not understanding the difference in how your body fights and infection vs being vaccinated for an infection?

Also, I'm glad I'm getting a pass for this year b/c I don't ever get a flu vaccine lol. My new client gave me the opportunity to get in line for my first shot on Tuesday. If this doesn't become an annual thing (fingers crossed), you'll have to get upset w/ me next year. Seeing Pfizer's data about how well one shot protects you is tempting to only get one but I won't (assuming I don't get Moderna's or J&J's [which is highly unlikely]).

[TVScout]

Not free:

The coronavirus is finally starting to run out of new people to infect

Vaccines and previous infections are combining to raise the level of population immunity

Quote

Serology studies that look for evidence of past cases find that in most states, between 10 to 20 percent of the population had been infected by the end of 2020. But that estimate does not account for the worst of the winter wave, when a quarter-million cases were reported each day — which means the current figure could be significantly higher. Modeled estimates from data scientist Youyang Gu suggest that nationwide, about 28 percent of people may have been infected with the coronavirus. And now vaccination is adding to those with immunity to the virus. Over 13 percent of people in the United States have received one dose of vaccine, and 6 percent are fully vaccinated. Those numbers will continue to grow rapidly: The number of people fully vaccinated is expected to double by early April, bringing coverage to 1 in 8 people. Some of those vaccinated will have also recovered from natural infection, so the total number of people immune will be somewhat less than the number of infections and vaccinations combined. But by early April, the number of people in the United States with immunity may approach 40 percent. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/26/coronavirus-population-immunity-rising/