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Nastradamus

Wrote a few thousand words on “Quinn’s plan”

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8 minutes ago, SimbaWho said:

 

I mean, I wouldn't build a team/defense back to front. QB/OL/Pass rushers, *Interior pass rushers if possible*, would be the way I build my team. Just a personal preference but it's why I can't get behind a lot of what they're doing. 

It's just a basic fundamental difference between Quinn/Patricia regime and myself as a fan right now on how I like to see teams built. I like teams built like Jim Schwartz had here with a good QB, solid/above average Oline, and a good pass rush. Many different ways to build teams and be successful though. Bill Polian built his Colts/Bills team in much the same way. '91 Redskins, Dallas Cowboys to an extent.... *(They just had a huge collection of talent too.)

Hopefully they pick the right fellas and pull the right strings in game. While i'm a big downer on this regime, and do think they'll be fired. I'm not going to be pissed if they all the sudden are super successful and lead the Lions to playoffs/ playoff wins. I'm hoping they trade down, pick Young. If forced to draft at 3 with no trade down option... I would pick Tristan Wirfs. He's a safe pick, can play LG or RT immediately imo, possible LT future, might be able to move on from Taylor.* Nice comp pick likely. *

I'll be a little upset if I see a CB drafted at 3 or a LB. I like Simmons but I got burnt by Aaron Curry years ago and the sting isn't gone. 

 

I'm hoping they trade down OR pick Young right?

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It's what every fan is basically hoping for I think. I feel like anything else at 3 will cause controversy in some way... It's when the obvious move isn't available lol. 

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2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

a) Are you the author of that post or just posted it in here?

b) Ryan was rated higher than Coleman by PFF last year. He did finish off the last 3 weeks better but a really up and down year. 

Yes Ryan was better, but Coleman is younger and is signed long term at 9 mil per. He's not being replaced by an older, minute upgrade. 

and ya I'm the author

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23 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Yes Ryan was better, but Coleman is younger and is signed long term at 9 mil per. He's not being replaced by an older, minute upgrade. 

and ya I'm the author

I read a little bit but definitely looking forward to reading the rest. Good job, that is a ton of work. 

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2 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Let me throw a scenario at you.

If we sign Logan Ryan and WAS trades down, would you draft Young or Okudah?

Man that is tough... I think I would still go Okudah. Granted Young may be a slightly better prospect overall, but Okudah is the best corner to come out in a while. Certainly would be very happy either way.

You?

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1 minute ago, BarryTheBest said:

Man that is tough... I think I would still go Okudah. Granted Young may be a slightly better prospect overall, but Okudah is the best corner to come out in a while. Certainly would be very happy either way.

You?

With Logan Ryan on board, I'd have to go Young. I love Okudah as a prospect, but I feel a Flowers/Young duo with those pieces in the secondary would give us a very good defense this year.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SimbaWho said:

 

I mean, I wouldn't build a team/defense back to front. QB/OL/Pass rushers, *Interior pass rushers if possible*, would be the way I build my team. Just a personal preference but it's why I can't get behind a lot of what they're doing. 

It's just a basic fundamental difference between Quinn/Patricia regime and myself as a fan right now on how I like to see teams built. I like teams built like Jim Schwartz had here with a good QB, solid/above average Oline, and a good pass rush. Many different ways to build teams and be successful though. Bill Polian built his Colts/Bills team in much the same way. '91 Redskins, Dallas Cowboys to an extent.... *(They just had a huge collection of talent too.)

Hopefully they pick the right fellas and pull the right strings in game. While i'm a big downer on this regime, and do think they'll be fired. I'm not going to be pissed if they all the sudden are super successful and lead the Lions to playoffs/ playoff wins. I'm hoping they trade down, pick Young. If forced to draft at 3 with no trade down option... I would pick Tristan Wirfs. He's a safe pick, can play LG or RT immediately imo, possible LT future, might be able to move on from Taylor.* Nice comp pick likely. *

I'll be a little upset if I see a CB drafted at 3 or a LB. I like Simmons but I got burnt by Aaron Curry years ago and the sting isn't gone. 

 

I agree with this almost word for word.  The only thing I think I would differ on would be taking a DT at 3 if I was building the team, if Young was not available.  However, I'm not as high on Brown.  I have no idea why.  I think I'm opposed to Auburn players and my bias is showing.  I think Kinlaw is going to be the beast DT in this draft. But anyways, fantastic post.

Edited by LionArkie

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Posted (edited)

I don't want Brown at 3. You have to take a player with Suh/McCoy/Sapp pedigree which I'm not sure he has. He's going to be good prolly but I don't think Derrick Brown will be a top interior pass rusher in the NFL, which is the only reason you'd pick him at 3.

I like interior pass rushers a lot, but I wasn't suggesting drafting one at 3 in this draft. 

Edited by SimbaWho

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2 hours ago, SimbaWho said:

 

I mean, I wouldn't build a team/defense back to front. QB/OL/Pass rushers, *Interior pass rushers if possible*, would be the way I build my team. Just a personal preference but it's why I can't get behind a lot of what they're doing. 

It's just a basic fundamental difference between Quinn/Patricia regime and myself as a fan right now on how I like to see teams built. I like teams built like Jim Schwartz had here with a good QB, solid/above average Oline, and a good pass rush. Many different ways to build teams and be successful though. Bill Polian built his Colts/Bills team in much the same way. '91 Redskins, Dallas Cowboys to an extent.... *(They just had a huge collection of talent too.)

Hopefully they pick the right fellas and pull the right strings in game. While i'm a big downer on this regime, and do think they'll be fired. I'm not going to be pissed if they all the sudden are super successful and lead the Lions to playoffs/ playoff wins. I'm hoping they trade down, pick Young. If forced to draft at 3 with no trade down option... I would pick Tristan Wirfs. He's a safe pick, can play LG or RT immediately imo, possible LT future, might be able to move on from Taylor.* Nice comp pick likely. *

I'll be a little upset if I see a CB drafted at 3 or a LB. I like Simmons but I got burnt by Aaron Curry years ago and the sting isn't gone. 

 

Last season is a clear example of pass rush > coverage.

 

10 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I agree with this almost word for word.  The only thing I think I would differ on would be taking a DT at 3 if I was building the team, if Young was not available.  However, I'm not as high on Brown.  I have no idea why.  I think I'm opposed to Auburn players and my bias is showing.  I think Kinlaw is going to be the beast DT in this draft. But anyways, fantastic post.

He had a pretty poor showing at the combine.

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Just now, Nnivolcm said:

Last season is a clear example of pass rush > coverage.

 

He had a pretty poor showing at the combine.

Did he?  Like I said I'm not a fan of his and I think at of all the people we could get in the top 10, I'd be most disappointed with him.

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10 minutes ago, SimbaWho said:

I don't want Brown at 3. You have to take a player with Suh/McCoy/Sapp pedigree which I'm not sure he has. He's going to be good prolly but I don't think Derrick Brown will be a top interior pass rusher in the NFL, which is the only reason you'd pick him at 3.

I like interior pass rushers a lot, but I wasn't suggesting drafting one at 3 in this draft. 

Yes, I understood what you were saying.  I probably worded my response poorly.  I was saying I differ with picking Wirfs at 3 if needed. If we did, I wouldn't be upset and think it would turn out good, but  I would prefer to pick up a DT instead due to our current roster.  This is the only spot I differed with you in your post, but it is only a slight difference.  I was also saying I do not like Brown, and was not trying to insinuate that you do.  Hope that clears up the confusion of my post.

Personally, I wouldn't be upset with Kinlaw at 3, but I know I'm the only person in the known universe who thinks this and I acknowledge it won't happen. I just don't want Brown in the top 10.

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Would love to read this, but I'm the only guy who doesn't have twitter, lol.

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28 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Did he?  Like I said I'm not a fan of his and I think at of all the people we could get in the top 10, I'd be most disappointed with him.

Quote

 

Size needs to be factored in with Brown's workout. Among defensive linemen at the combine over the past two decades, his height (6-feet-5) and weight (324 pounds) placed in the 84th and 94th percentile, respectively.

However, all of his measured, on-field work was historically bad. His 8.22 3-cone placed in the third -- yes, third -- percentile among defensive tackles. His vertical? 22nd percentile at the position. His broad jump was a respectable but far from super-impressive 66th percentile. His short shuttle time of 4.79 -- 18th percentile. Ndamukong Suh -- a trendy comparison for the Auburn star -- was light years more athletic than Brown when he tested at the combine in 2010. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-why-poor-combine-is-concerning-for-derrick-brown-and-other-notable-prospects/

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16 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

 

6 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Yeah, this reinforces it for me. I don’t want him unless he is in the second...or maybe not at all.

This is food for thought and a test for my modeling.

On the surface, yes Brown's numbers aren't great. When they talk about how he fits in the 84th and 94th percentile, they are taking those numbers at face value. 

When I look at how my numbers work out, which I adjust for height and weight (player/positional average) for DT's, 

  • Height - 76.625 Inches (6'5) (Top 80 - 90%)
  • Weight - 326 lbs (Top 70 - 80%)
  • Speed Score - 94.05 (Top 50% - 60%)
  • Explosion Score - 166.68 (Top 70% - 80%)
  • Agility Score - 12.81 (Below 50%)

His scores are somewhat uncharacteristic for a guy his size. Most of the guys with similar scores have been guys that are 300 - 310 lbs. The agility score is definitely concerning but the fact is, he is big and he is explosive. If they're talking about Suh, Brown's BJ of 108 is better than Suh's 105. Suh put up 32 reps on the bench and Brown put up 28. The biggest difference is Suh's elite level Vert at 35 1/2 inches vs Brown's 27 inches. 

The closest comparisons I could find for guys with similar numbers and ballpark size are: Jordan Phillips, Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Christian Wilkins. 

Surprisingly enough, Chris Jones isn't THAT far off score wise (100.82 speed score vs 94.05) and Explosion Score (162.91 vs 166.68). 

  • Jordan Phillips (Rd 2) - 53.6 PFF Score
  • Vernon Butler (Rd 1) - 59.0 PFF Score
  • Andrew Billings (Rd 4) - 69.3 PFF Score
  • Christian Wilkins (Rd 1) - 64.4 PFF Score
  • Chris Jones (Rd 2) - 84.9 PFF Score

Min: 53.6; Max: 84.9; Mean: 66.24

Someone should remind me to take a look at Brown's PFF score and see where he falls. 

 

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