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BayRaider

How many WR1's are in the NFL? And how important is it?

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Posted (edited)

Personally, I feel it's a rare breed and on average looking at history, there is 10-14 in the NFL at any given time.

Here is my rankings:

Wide Receiver True 1's:

1. Michael Thomas

Definitely my #1. You just can't guard this guy, good luck. He's massive, with an insane catch radius both wide and vertical, and will just convert an insane amount of 3rd downs. Best WR in the NFL.

2. Mike Evans

Perhaps I have Evans a little higher than most but he has everything you want. Hulk-Like Size and catch radius, solid at routes, great hands, aggressive, good speed for his size, 3rd down converter, extremely reliable.

3. Tyreek Hill

I also have Hill higher than most but he makes a huge difference for the Chiefs. They are so much better with him it's not even funny. Not only does Hill run a 4.24, but he's built like a tank and a really good route runner.

4. AJ Green

Also maybe not a popular choice but I've always preferred Green over most WR's. His skillset is insane. He's injury prone and has been on a lackluster offense for years but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he does great, great things with Joe Burrow.

5. Julio Jones

6. DeAndre Hopkins

7. JuJu Smith-Schuster

8. Courtland Sutton

Big fan of Sutton, he's gonna keep doing great things.

9. Odell Beckam Jr.

I personally feel Odell is slightly overrated but I still think he's a true WR1, Top 10 WR.

10. Keenan Allen

11. Amari Cooper

12. Cooper Kupp

Upper Tier WR2's including: Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Mike Williams.

Normal Tier WR2's: Tyrell Williams, Jarvis Landry, Deebo Samuel, T.Y. Hilton, John Brown (although I personally love Brown), D.J. Chark, Tyler Boyd, Julian Edelmen, Hollywood Brown, DaVante Parker, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Locket, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Robby Anderson, Golden Tate, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Ross, Alshon Jeffrey, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golloday (not as sold on him as most are, more of a fantasy darling).

Everything after these should be a #3 option, although I probably forgot a couple names.

How important is a WR1?

Personally, I think it's a luxury position. Would I love to luck into one in the 2nd-4th Round? Absolutely. But using a Top 15 pick on one is excessive. The Chiefs won with a WR1 last year but Mahomes/Reid is one of the greatest combos we've ever seen. Before last year, you'd have to go back all the way to SB42 with Plaxico Burress and SB41 with Marvin Harrison. A long, long time ago. Before that, you'd have to back to The Greatest Show on Turf with Super Bowl 34 with Holt/Bruce.

Not saying having a WR1 is a bad thing, but it depends on the price. Most Championship teams have almost always had two WR2's and a solid defense. Having a true WR1 is not really necessary to win a Super Bowl and usually does not result in a Super Bowl win, as you could of spent those resources elsewhere. Is it bad to have one? Absolutely not. Especially if you got them in the Late 1st or later + On a Rookie Contract Still. Having a great player at any position is always a great thing. It's just that resources are scarce.

 

 

Edited by BayRaider

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I think the same can be said for most positions. How many elite QBs have one ring, or none? How many championships does Joe Thomas have? Or Watt? Or AP? A single position, on it’s own, never almost never leads to a championship. Quarterback is really the only position that even lets a team have multiple bites at the apple.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I think the same can be said for most positions. How many elite QBs have one ring, or none? How many championships does Joe Thomas have? Or Watt? Or AP? A single position, on it’s own, never almost never leads to a championship. Quarterback is really the only position that even lets a team have multiple bites at the apple.

Just saying resources are scarce. For example, one of the best keys to winning a Super Bowl over the past 15 years have been four very solid DLinemen and one Top 10 CB. Odds are spending a high resource on a WR1, whether it was a Top 15 pick or a huge contract, the odds of you having those other five players are slim to none. 
 

As for your QB argument, outside of Eli/Flacco/Armless Peyton, a Top 5 QB has won the Super Bowl every year since Super Bowl 38.... (Wentz was MVP that year and they don’t get the #1 seed without him).  

Edited by BayRaider

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2 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Davante Adams isn’t a “true 1” in what world?

Adams is not the greatest separator by any means and has had a Top 2-3 QB in the league throwing in very tight-accurate windows. Adams is a solid WR. I don’t see him as a WR1. He’ll get shut down by most Top Corners. 

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Posted (edited)

Sure fire #1’s

Julio Jones

Michael Thomas

Davante Adams

Mike Evans

Deandre Hopkins

Tyreek Hill

OBJ

Keenan Allen

Amari Cooper 

TY Hilton

 

WR’s i think are number ones but need to see more:

Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen,  Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, Aj Green (health perspective)

after that i start getting into #2 WR type status

Edited by bigbadbuff

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Davante Adams has 40 TDs over the last 4 years even with missing 7 games.

He had 1300+ yards in 2018.

He's a clear #1

 

The last time AJ Green put up #1 numbers was 2015.

 

If Marvin Jones returns to 2017 form and stays healthy then the Lions have a pair of #1s.

The Falcons could as well, although Ridley would always be 1A to Julio.

 

Teams like Philly don't have a #1  (Alshon has really bad mojo with Wentz)

  • Jackson could put up #1 numbers in 5 games, be mediocre in 5 games, and be invisible in 6 games.
    • Does that make him a 2 a 3 or his own thing.

 

 

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Put Davante on a different team, his numbers will be no where close. 
 

Rodgers ball-placement is the best of any QB in history. Throws it to Adams where a defender can’t make a play what so ever. Adams is not a good NFL separator. And it’s not that he’s overly great at catching in traffic like Evans and Thomas, it’s Rodgers ball-placement. 
 

Not disrespecting Adams, I think he’s a great Upper Tier WR2 and a Top 15-16 WR in the league. Top 5 is a hugeeee stretch though. 
 

Really gotta stop looking at box scores, some members on this forum live by stats and think they are king. 

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8 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Just saying resources are scarce. For example, one of the best keys to winning a Super Bowl over the past 15 years have been four very solid DLinemen and one Top 10 CB. Odds are spending a high resource on a WR1, whether it was a Top 15 pick or a huge contract, the odds of you having those other five players are slim to none. 
 

Yeah, but that’s not apples-to-apples. Is Aaron Donald or JJ Watt, on their own, also overvalued?

8 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

As for your QB argument, outside of Eli/Flacco/Armless Peyton, a Top 5 QB has won the Super Bowl every year since Super Bowl 38.... (Wentz was MVP that year and they don’t get the #1 seed without him).  

Wentz isn’t an elite QB, though. If anything, it reinforces the idea that anyone could have a great year and get you in there - not just the elite QBs. 

SB 38/39: Elite defenses, elite HC

SB 40: Elite defense, great HC

SB 41: Hot defense, stacked offense

SB 42: Hot defense, Eli

SB 43: Big Ben, great defense, good offense, top tier HC

SB 44: Hot defense, good HC

SB 45: elite defense, stacked offense

SB 46: Eli, hot defense, good offense

SB 47: Flacco, hot offense, hot defense

SB 48: great run game, GOAT tier defense

SB 49/51/53: good all around team, GOAT HC

SB 50: GOAT tier defense, Zombie Peyton

SB 52: Hot team all around

SB 53: great coach

The point of this isn’t to say QBs are worthless or not the most valuable position. But even they hardly ever do it without a deep team or great positional groups. If this thread is just to say that WRs aren’t as valuable as most other positions - yeah, most agree with that. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah, but that’s not apples-to-apples. Is Aaron Donald or JJ Watt, on their own, also overvalued?

Wentz isn’t an elite QB, though. If anything, it reinforces the idea that anyone could have a great year and get you in there - not just the elite QBs. 

SB 38/39: Elite defenses, elite HC

SB 40: Elite defense, great HC

SB 41: Hot defense, stacked offense

SB 42: Hot defense, Eli

SB 43: Big Ben, great defense, good offense, top tier HC

SB 44: Hot defense, good HC

SB 45: elite defense, stacked offense

SB 46: Eli, hot defense, good offense

SB 47: Flacco, hot offense, hot defense

SB 48: great run game, GOAT tier defense

SB 49/51/53: good all around team, GOAT HC

SB 50: GOAT tier defense, Zombie Peyton

SB 52: Hot team all around

SB 53: great coach

The point of this isn’t to say QBs are worthless or not the most valuable position. But even they hardly ever do it without a deep team or great positional groups. If this thread is just to say that WRs aren’t as valuable as most other positions - yeah, most agree with that.

Somewhat. Not entirely the point of the thread. I do think WR is the least important position behind SLB. But you still need two solid WR2’s to usually win a championship unless you have an elite tier defense. The point is a true WR1 is usually a waste of resources considering you’ll have to spend a Top 15 Pick or pay 21M per year. A Top 15 Pick or paying top dollar to/on DE, DT, CB, QB, OT, is certainly not a waste of resources if you go over the years of Championship Teams.

Edited by BayRaider

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1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Somewhat. Not entirely the point of the thread. I do think WR is the least important position behind SLB. But you still need two solid WR2’s to usually win a championship unless you have an elite tier defense. The point is a true WR1 is usually a waste of resources considering you’ll have to spend a Top 15 Pick or pay 21M per year. A Top 15 Pick or paying top dollar to/on DE, DT, CB, QB, OT, is certainly not a waste of resources if you over the years of Championship Teams.

But isn’t there sufficient evidence that an elite DT usually won’t bring you a chip as well? Or an elite DE? Or OT? And I mean on their own, not within a unit.

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Apex-level wide receivers are fun, and certainly help to a degree, but I'm more interested in whether or not my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th receivers can beat the opponent's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th coverage options.

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In what world is Cooper Kupp better than Davante Adams?

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2 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Adams is not the greatest separator by any means and has had a Top 2-3 QB in the league throwing in very tight-accurate windows. Adams is a solid WR. I don’t see him as a WR1. He’ll get shut down by most Top Corners. 

I can't tell if this guy is serious? Adams is easily a number 1 receiver and one of the tops ones at that.

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2 minutes ago, BarnettOSU said:

I can't tell if this guy is serious? Adams is easily a number 1 receiver and one of the tops ones at that.

Just my opinion. I respect yours if you think differently. You are welcome to share, without using stats as your indicator (stats are useless without substance) on why you think Davante is a WR1. 

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