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You’re Cincy: What would it take from Miami?

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On 3/23/2020 at 10:54 PM, .Buzz said:

You hang up the phone and don't listen, imo...

It's too hard to find franchise QBs. Trading down when you have one sitting right in front of you isn't an option.

I just want to challenge the conventional wisdom for a moment.

Only two top draft choice quarterbacks have won super bowls since 2000. That includes quarterbacks picked int he Top 3. Heck, in the Top 5.

So if you don't get a guy named Manning, it is not your best route to the Super Bowl.

You win Super Bowls by building a team, and then finding the Right Guy. Brady... obvi. Wilson was a 3rd. So was Foles. Brad Johnson was a 9th.

In the Past 20 years, winning Super Bowls with qb's originally drafted

1-5: 4, with 3 on original team
Rest of 1st Rd: 6, with 5 on original team
Later rounds: 10, with 7 on original team

Not on original team 5.

So there are multiple paths to winning a super bowl.  I just don't think a crappy team trading away most of their capital to get one guy, and then expose him to being murdered by pass-rushers is the optimum path. The Bengals have Mixon and some free agents, plus some aging-out players like Green and Atkins. A boatload of free agents has never worked. They need to build a TEAM, and then find the Right Quarterback.

So I would flip 1-1 for everything I could get, including 1 & 2 for 2021 as future picks are typically undervalued in trades. I'd keep 5 and turn it into a future pro bowler from a list of Young, Okudah, Simmons, Wills, and Lamb. (Don't quibble with specific names.) I'd flip 18 if I got it for present and future picks in rounds 2 & 3. I'd slide in round 2 but stay in round and pick up a 3 or two.

When the dust settles, I'd get from this draft and the next (including my native picks) 4 sure-fire players who are likely to make pro bowls and up to 10 players with a historically 50% chance of being solid pro starters. And 8 to 12 day three players that could add to the bounty. And one of those players might be Trevor Lawrence.

So no, I would not keep the first overall pick if I had a trade partner, unless I had previously set a solid foundation in place, with the Bengals have not. Free agents are a foundation of sand.

Historically for Cincy, you had Carson Palmer as a #1 pick, and he played in 2 playoff games. Dalton was 2nd round. He's been 2x as many playoff games with the same winning percentage. Boomer was a 2nd rounder and a 4x pro bowler. Anderson was also a 4x pro bowler and a 3rd rounder. Greg Cook was drafted 5th overall, and I believe he looked good until he blew out his shoulder in the 3rd or 4th game. That didn't work out so hot. Overall, Cincy has had decent quarterback play. They just never built a foundation to take advantage of it.

At the end of the day you have to be able to scout.

 

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If I were Cincy, I'd trade the #1 pick for:

#5

#18

#26

#39

2021 1st (MIA)

2021 2nd (HOU)

It's a lot, but that would be my price.

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One more thing to my diatribe.

In the last 20 years I think 13 quarterbacks have gone #1. There's been a grand total of 1 Super Bowls won by all 13 combined during their first contract.

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On 3/26/2020 at 9:00 PM, Techbert said:

One more thing to my diatribe.

In the last 20 years I think 13 quarterbacks have gone #1. There's been a grand total of 1 Super Bowls won by all 13 combined during their first contract.

Worth noting that if you go from 1998 to 2017, you have 14 #1 overall QBs. Of those 14, the two Mannings won Super Bowls. Cam and Goff got their teams to the Super Bowl. And Palmer, Luck, Vick, and Alex Smith came damn close. No, it's not a guarantee, but your odds are better than any other spot in the draft (I would expect).

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44 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Worth noting that if you go from 1998 to 2017, you have 14 #1 overall QBs. Of those 14, the two Mannings won Super Bowls. Cam and Goff got their teams to the Super Bowl. And Palmer, Luck, Vick, and Alex Smith came damn close. No, it's not a guarantee, but your odds are better than any other spot in the draft (I would expect).

And the last 14 years have been dominated by an anomaly in Tom Brady.  How many more does Peyton win if Brady/Belichek isn't there?

Unless Miami is ready to part with all picks in rounds 1-3 2020-2029, then they can just keep fantasizing about Burrow, because it isn't happening in reality.

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What do I do if I'm Cinci? TBH, here's what I do:

5, 18, 26, 2nd in 2020

1st in 2021

I'm personally not of the mindset that you can afford to pass on an elite position player, and while the AFC East is wide open, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised for that 2021 pick to be a VERY HIGH one, meaning, I'm looking at something like:

2020:

#5: One of the 3 best position players in the draft or Tua/Herbert

#18: Elite WR, solid OL/DL, the best S in the draft, a solid CB, the best interior OL in the draft

#26: A solid DE/DT (Espenesa for example)

2 2nds

2021:

2 1sts, both of them likely high (mine, Miami's).

I can use them as ammunition to make a move for Trevor Lawrence/Justin Fields if I passed on Tua/Herbert at #5.

Edited by MWil23

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No one is trading away Trevor Lawrence next year, no matter how many picks you offer.  If Fields repeats what he did last year and tightens up his game a bit, then odds are no one is trading away number 2 either.

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On 3/23/2020 at 10:54 PM, .Buzz said:

You hang up the phone and don't listen, imo...

It's too hard to find franchise QBs. Trading down when you have one sitting right in front of you isn't an option.

Except that Burrow is far from a lock as a franchise QB. This isn't Andrew Luck. People forget what a short resume he has. I like him fine, but two #1s would work for me. Never pin all your hopes on a guy with such a small track record IMO

Edited by bomont

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On 3/26/2020 at 5:41 AM, THE DUKE said:

History says 50% or more of the "draft haul" you get by trading Burrow are going to bust.  The Bengals have remade their defense through FA (Reader, Waynes, McKensie, Bell, Tynes added to Dunlap, Atkins, Jackson, Hubbard, Bates) so I expect 33 to either be a trade down for more picks or the top WR or OL available if one they like is still there (Mims, Jefferson, Ruiz, Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, etc.._)

Doesnt Joe also have that same chance to bust?

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5, 18, 26, 39, 2021 1st, and DeVante Parker.

Cincy has all the leverage in the world and Miami would have to mortgage their immediate future if I'm letting Burrow go there. 

Then, after announcing the trade deal, I'm not making it official and drafting him anyway just to stick it to them and leave them demoralized for thr next couple of years.

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10 hours ago, ninjapirate said:

Doesnt Joe also have that same chance to bust?

QB's who go #1 probably have a 70% bust rate or higher. So no, Joe has a higher chance of busting.

Edited by Jeezla

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If Cincy is sold on Burrow being a franchise QB, then there is nothing anyone can give.    Take him and move on.

If they arent sold on him, then by all means, go nuts and get as much as possible.    It will depend how much Miami is sold on him, too.   

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