Whicker Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, Pickle Rick said: Really. The methodology is sound the numbers are soundish (can only increase). Of 33 games the average is 2.5 scum in the 7-15 slots. Round up to 3 we have a 3 in 9 or a 33% chance of lynching scum if we lynch from those spots. Now I'm not suggesting lynching from those spots for teh hell of it. Just using it in conjunction with teh thread, reads, etc. There is no selection bias for spots 7-15. It’s all random 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: Really. The methodology is sound the numbers are soundish (can only increase). Of 33 games the average is 2.5 scum in the 7-15 slots. Round up to 3 we have a 3 in 9 or a 33% chance of lynching scum if we lynch from those spots. Now I'm not suggesting lynching from those spots for teh hell of it. Just using it in conjunction with teh thread, reads, etc. how many scum are in the 1-9 slots. bet its about the same 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 How much stock would Pickle put in there if: 1. He/Orca or both were there 2. SwAg wasn’t there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Whicker said: There is no selection bias for spots 7-15. It’s all random It is not all random, depending on how and what people use to randomize, the results vary 2 minutes ago, Malfatron said: how many scum are in the 1-9 slots. bet its about the same Still should come out to a 1/3 chance in a narrowed field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Malfatron said: how many scum are in the 1-9 slots. bet its about the same I'd take that bet. (Then again you would be included sole of teh same numbers) There is a reason I was town for a year straight signing up in the first few spots. Cant remember if he did it, but I told @MWil23 to break his suck streak to signup early and he broke it somewhat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, Dome said: It’s not being obtuse, it’s just explaining that what you’re saying doesn’t mean what you think it does 12 votes end the day, period. 4 votes is 1/3 of the way there. That's exactly what I'm saying and means just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 *I'd take that bet. (Then again you would be including some of the same numbers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: I'd take that bet. (Then again you would be included sole of teh same numbers) There is a reason I was town for a year straight signing up in the first few spots. Cant remember if he did it, but I told @MWil23 to break his suck streak to signup early and he broke it somewhat lol. Okay, I will bet 10 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Pickle Rick said: *I'd take that bet. (Then again you would be including some of the same numbers) still, theres only 3 of the numbers shared. if the 7-15 theory is correct, theres should still be significantly more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Pickle Rick said: Cant remember if he did it, but I told @MWil23 to break his suck streak to signup early and he broke it somewhat lol. LOL We talked about this in dead chat a few games ago. I did that, then proceeded to be scum in Wrestlemafia 2, Town in Malf's game, back to scum last game in Daboyle's Office setup, back to Town here. 2 out of 4 times it worked, so I feel like the typical chance of hitting scum is like 1/4 or 1/5, but to be fair, my first 10 out of 11 Mafia games I was Town, so...who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: How much stock would Pickle put in there if: 1. He/Orca or both were there 2. SwAg wasn’t there Honey, would you not be posting this to discredit Pickle, if your name wasnt in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, The Orca said: Honey, would you not be posting this to discredit Pickle, if your name wasnt in there? the theory cant be possible with true random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Let it be known that JLA Mafia was the time where I lost all faith in our ability to play mafia. We’re arguing over which numbered signup to lynch hahaha. And giving justification!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Orca said: is not all random, depending on how and what people use to randomize, the results vary random.org is true random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, Malfatron said: the theory cant be possible with true random Which is impossible to achieve and soley dependent on the method used and how the roles are entered I have a huge gripe in general will randomization methods/sites. They usually suck and leave patterns/sets. That's why I take multiple extra steps when I do it I would be willing to bet more often than not more scum appears in the section proposed than others Though if truley random over a period of games 1/3 should be any "like" segment...never happens imo for the above reasons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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