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OneTwoSixFive

Will the Packers be a better team in 2020 than 2019, or worse ?

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Posted (edited)

Get out your crystal balls. this is an opinion or gut-feeling type of question since we don't know exactly who will be on the roster come training camp. We DO have some ideas due to the losses and gains made already...... and even though we don't know the exact players picked in the draft, you could expect additions (or further additions) at OT, ILB, WR, DL, RB, IOL, probablyTE,  and possibly QB CB and/or safety, which basically means everywhere. It's the order in which those positions are filled that is likely to make the crystal ball just a little less cloudy.

There isn't much doubt (at least not in my mind) that the Packers are worse off at this time when you add up the gains and losses. However, the players lost have given the Pack cap room going forward.

In the longer term I think we will be about the same next year as last year. Packers will probably be better against the SanFran outside run game because they have been clearly shown they must get better against it. Rodgers is in his second year with La Fleur which is good (better knowledge of the system) and worse (he is a year older). There are likely to be more guys getting better on the team because they are young and improving, than there are getting worse. Several young guys on the receiver corps, Savage, Jenkins, Alexander, King, Gary, Hollman, Sullivan, Sternberger, Keke are just some of the guys I want to see getting better, while those slipping are Graham, T.Williams, maybe Bulaga. Good players leaving generally count more than the young improving guys, due to the fact that you can already see the history of descending good players (it's written in stone, being in the past). Future development, by comparison, is just guesswork - some will rise, some will not. 

I think (and so do several other posters) that we could win 1-3 games less in 2020 (than in 2019) but still be a slightly better team overall.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive

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Posted (edited)

I tend to be an optimist but currently, I"m not seeing a better team in 2020, at least win wise. We haven't addressed WR or our ability to stop the run with any of our off season moves. Still have the draft and there is time, but if you're not improving, you're getting worse! 

Edited by Golfman

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As of now we've downgraded at RT, TE, Slot CB, and probably ILB. 

We've upgraded: . . . 

We also have no reason to think that our ridiculous injury luck, or unsustainable record vs point differential will continue.

On the positive side, we've got another year in the system and our young skill players will be another year older. 

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We paid it backward with the FA signings last year so the team will be a little worse. Nothing variance can't overcome.

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Experience boost will be significant.  That's all we can bank on. 

You don't need to improve your roster every year in order to get better as experience is sometimes more important.

Just look at Super Bowl winners over the years. 

You could say that the Chiefs got worse.  Lost Houston, Berry, Ford... Their only significant addition on paper was Mathieu. 

Their offseason was not all that great, they didn't have a first round pick, they replaced Ford with Clark, and that dropoff was significant by every grading metric that's out there. 

The Patriots ALWAYS lose more than they gain.  This was true in 2018.
The Eagles added Jeffery, but their biggest addition turned out to be their least-inspiring when they signed Foles.  Darby was a move made in August.  Their second round pick was a redshirt corner, and their first round pick did nothing until the Super Bowl. 

I once looked into this and found all the Super Bowl winning teams from like 2000 to 2014 and showed that very few teams really added anything in free agency and went on to win the Super Bowl.  In fact, the majority of Super Bowl winning teams fit the following criteria:

1. Under 2 significant free agent signings *Note below.
2. Lots of low-tier additions (Wagner/Kirksey types).
3. RECENT run in the playoffs.  The 2017 Eagles are the only team in a decade to win without recent playoff experience. 
4. In-season or post-draft trades.

*All the significant free agent signings seem to win in their second, third or fourth year of a deal, which gives lots of faith for Z/P/AA.  Gilmore was a significant one who won his second year. 
Rodney McLeod/Brandon Brooks for the Eagles. 

Remembering that the season does not start tomorrow, yes.  The Packers will be a better team this coming season than they were last season.

 

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Just now, Shanedorf said:

Most were wrong last year and most will be wrong this year
 

The highest vote totals in the preseason pole were for 10-11 wins,  with 8-9 wins coming in 2nd place.
Note: @incognito_man did say the pole didn't go high enough and he was correct

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/19826-how-many-wins-for-the-2019-packers/?tab=comments#comment-1907407

I was off by 2 regular season games.

Quote

11 regular season, one postseason.

Then I said this:

Quote

14 regular season, 3 postseason next year.    

And that's exactly what it's going to be. 

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11 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Most were wrong last year and most will be wrong this year
 

The highest vote totals in the preseason pole were for 10-11 wins,  with 8-9 wins coming in 2nd place.
Note: @incognito_man did say the pole didn't go high enough and he was correct

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/19826-how-many-wins-for-the-2019-packers/?tab=comments#comment-1907407

We had 9.7 Pythagorean wins. The fanbase knew the caliber of team we had.

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12 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Experience boost will be significant.  That's all we can bank on. 

Experience boost helps half the roster and hurts the other half every year though.

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4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We had 9.7 Pythagorean wins. The fanbase knew the caliber of team we had.

Sick of this.  It’s a spit in the face to the clutch moments we had in games lesser teams lose.

We were not a powerhouse team last year.  We had clear and obvious faults.  The Chargers may have been a better team than us last year with less clear and less obvious faults.

The difference was we won games we should have lost and they lost games they should have won.

They didn’t have Crosby kicking game winning field goals.  They didn’t have King making game-clinching interceptions.  They didn’t have Amos with game-sealing interceptions.  They didn’t have Martinez making clutch interceptions that would have made packfanfb drool over him if he had been a player on a different team.  They didn’t have Aaron Jones making timely big plays.  They didn’t have Jimmy Graham making a clutch first down to seal a playoff win.

We won 13 games because we did what we had to do to win 13 games.  To complain about your team winning more games than they should is the epitome of being a Debbie Downer.  It should be celebrated that we overachieved, and yet all you want to do is crap on 13 wins and a Championship appearance in our new head coach’s FIRST YEAR because math says a game where 22 starters, 45 players and dozens of coaches fight scrap hit pull push and fight some more were supposed to lose more.

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23 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

Better team, worse record.

co-signed. Brady to Tampa Bay probably just added another loss on our record and we'll probably see them in the playoffs as well. The good news is that they don't really have a good running game though I suspect they'll invest a higher pick on a RB. DeAndre Swift makes sense for them in particular. Still, I can see our secondary overwhelmed by their receiving corps though that's not to say our secondary is bad by any means. 

 

Just now, Shanedorf said:

Packers play NFC South and AFC South so that means more domes and/ or warmer weather games

https://www.packers.com/schedule/2020-opponents

Yeah, you'd think that this would help our passing game, but I have to say that we're becoming a run-to-set-up-the-pass team. We have the stud RB with ok depth in order to facilitate that approach and it's clear that we'll be focusing our efforts on shoring up that defense in the draft. I'm convinced that Aaron wants to pass pass pass, while MLF wants to run run run.

----

I think we go 12-4 with all of the losses coming on the road to SF, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Indy; though I can see a really stupid loss to someone like Philly at home.

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I'll go with worse because of injury luck last year.

 

I will say though from like an age progression;

O- outside of AR, and Wagner (maybe TE but that was really bad last year as well), the O should get better or maintain or improve

D- outside of ILB and CB3, the entire squad is back and should be progressing or at least maintain

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2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Sick of this.  It’s a spit in the face to the clutch moments we had in games lesser teams lose.

We were not a powerhouse team last year.  We had clear and obvious faults.  The Chargers may have been a better team than us last year with less clear and less obvious faults.

The difference was we won games we should have lost and they lost games they should have won.

They didn’t have Crosby kicking game winning field goals.  They didn’t have King making game-clinching interceptions.  They didn’t have Amos with game-sealing interceptions.  They didn’t have Martinez making clutch interceptions that would have made packfanfb drool over him if he had been a player on a different team.  They didn’t have Aaron Jones making timely big plays.  They didn’t have Jimmy Graham making a clutch first down to seal a playoff win.

We won 13 games because we did what we had to do to win 13 games.  To complain about your team winning more games than they should is the epitome of being a Debbie Downer.  It should be celebrated that we overachieved, and yet all you want to do is crap on 13 wins and a Championship appearance in our new head coach’s FIRST YEAR because math says a game where 22 starters, 45 players and dozens of coaches fight scrap hit pull push and fight some more were supposed to lose more.

I agree with the line of thinking that we overachieved but its nothing to do with 'not deserving' those wins. We won because we outscored the opponents in the end. And if it was luck, we put ourselves in a decent position that the lucky play(s) actually impacted the result of the game.

Back to OP's question. I think it is very hard to say how we will be in 2020 till after the draft. If we can get a good run-stuffer on D AND a #2 WR between FA and the draft, I expect us be a better team than last year. Maybe our record in 2020 won't dictate that but I expect us to be a well-rounded playoff team if we can fill those two holes on the roster.

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