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OneTwoSixFive

Will the Packers be a better team in 2020 than 2019, or worse ?

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4 minutes ago, Jaegybomb said:

Experience boost helps half the roster and hurts the other half every year though.

It isn't a 50/50 split though. The Packers have been poster boys in the past for fielding one of the youngest teams in the league. The real problem I touched on my original post. Experience losses are definite (you already know how good the player was), while improvements due to added experience are uncertain.

Bottom line is success comes down to drafting, FA losses and gains, quality of the coaches ..........and most of all, quality of the players.

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31 minutes ago, Jaegybomb said:

Experience boost helps half the roster and hurts the other half every year though.

Maybe for the twilight McCarthy Packers, when all we had was player development. In year 2 of a new system, I think we can count on more than that.

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Most were wrong last year and most will be wrong this year
 

The highest vote totals in the preseason pole were for 10-11 wins,  with 8-9 wins coming in 2nd place.
Note: @incognito_man did say the pole didn't go high enough and he was correct

https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/19826-how-many-wins-for-the-2019-packers/?tab=comments#comment-1907407

i even said "seriously".

that's how serious I was.

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52 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

Maybe for the twilight McCarthy Packers, when all we had was player development. In year 2 of a new system, I think we can count on more than that.

co-signed. We need plug-n-play guys.

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Is there going to be a poll attached?

I think the team will be about the same with regard to talent by the time everything is said and done, have more injuries, have worse record, will still make the playoffs. 

Since I am always wrong with my predictions, I had to post this to keep my record intact.

 

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  • Because the Packers won the division, the play a “1st place schedule” right? So that’s Philly, SF, and NO right there. Pretty tough.
  • Then they swept the North last year. Even when Green Bay was expected to win the division, sweeps are hard to come by. Not likely to happen again
  •  NFC and AFC South - Atlanta with Julio Jones, Tampa Bay should be better with Brady, and Camless Carolina. The AFC doesn’t have any real patsys, especially if it’s an early Autumn muggy, hot day in Jacksonville-like a couple years back.

If the Packers can:

  • shore up the middle of that defense via the draft and maybe acquire another couple FAs to defend the run
  •  add some fire power on offense
  • Maintain that good locker room chemistry.
  • Go at least 4-2 in the Division.
  • They should be good, probably better than last year. 
  • But they may still lose a couple more games.  

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4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We had 9.7 Pythagorean wins. The fanbase knew the caliber of team we had.

Pythagorean ... ???  Sounds like a big frickin snake - Our fan base did know better!!

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Going to be a game or two worse but better overall.  Rest of the division is going to be worse and behind the Packers by 2 or more games.

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8 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We had 9.7 Pythagorean wins. The fanbase knew the caliber of team we had.

Point differential in a vacuum has significant limitations.

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10 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Point differential in a vacuum has significant limitations.

I'm all ears if you have a better predictive method.

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58 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm all ears if you have a better predictive method.

It's somewhat useful for a full dataset because things tend to even out across 32 teams, but it's less useful for a single team because there is absolutely no context involved. Like, say, an injury to a star QB.

It's not a very good snapshot, or predictor. It could be used as reference in defense of a stance when proper context is applied, as well.

But need to be convinced why a particular team is prone reversion. It's a decent gut check to alert a deeper analysis, but not much more than that.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

As of now we've downgraded at RT, TE, Slot CB, and probably ILB. 

We've upgraded: . . . 

We also have no reason to think that our ridiculous injury luck, or unsustainable record vs point differential will continue.

On the positive side, we've got another year in the system and our young skill players will be another year older. 

Tramon hasn’t left the building and already counting it as a downgrade? 
 

im hoping for a jump from 2nd/3rd year guys improving the team as well as some rookies but tough to tell right now.

Edited by Arthur Penske

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Posted (edited)

Packers win total for last year on the Over/Under was 9 wins, tied with bears, vikes, cowboys, steelers, browns.
Of that grouping, only the Packers and vikes exceeded their number.
Of course the Packers swept the division including the pivotal match-up at minny in December

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2019-nfl-win-totals-betting-odds-vegas

We'll see what the number is for 2020, I'm guessing 10.0

Edited by Shanedorf

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