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Pastor Dillon

Possible Extensions for Watson, Tunsil

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I have had a lot of free time to do some number crunching. Let's look at what these two guys will earn without an extension over the next several years:

Watson

year 4: 4.4 Million
Year 5: 24 million (roughly)
Year 6: 30 million (Franchise tag)
year 7: 35 million (Franchise tag)

These are estimates of course, but Watson would stand to make about 94 million over the next 4 years, with very few protections. That's 23 million per season, which seems to be the bottom amount that he has no reason to sign for. 

Lets look at the current highest paid QBs

Wilson makes 35 million
Big Ben makes 34 million
Rodgers makes 33.5 Million
Goff makes 33.5 million
Cousins makes 33 million
Wentz makes 32 million
Ryan makes 30 million

What most of those guys have in common is a Super Bowl birth. All of these except for Cousins. 

QB numbers always go up when there is a new contract being signed, but in this case Watson should show up too much higher. I would go all in, and FULLY GUARANTEE a contract extension in the neighborhood of 5 years 170 million

That comes out to 34 million a season, which isn't at the top of the game, but its the largest guaranteed contract in history. 
 Rusell Wilson's deal has cap hits of 26, 31, 32, and 37 million. So we are talking several years before Watsons cap hit becomes insanely large. By that point you restructure, convert to bonsuses and so forth to keep from every being on the hook for 34 million

 

Tunsil on the other hand isnt talking about the same numbers

He is in his 5th year option, which pays him 10.3 million. that means if we sign him to a deal that starts this season, we are hit with a cap number 10 million less than his actual number because we are already paying that. 

His 1st franchise tag would pay him 14 million and his next maybe 15 million. 

So he is looking at 3 years and 39 million. He doesn't want to risk that, especially at his position. 

Lets look at the top linemen contracts

Lane Johnson: 18 million per
Castonzo: 16.5 million per
Brown: 16 million per year
Lewen 16 million per yer
Solder: 15.5 million per years

So that is the market, but here is an interesting fact, Tunsil will turn 26 during training camp, making him 25 right now. only one person at 26 is currently in the top 20 of paid linemen, Jack Conklin at 14 million. 

So getting Tunsil a record breaking deal shouldnt be too hard. Lane Johnson got 72 million over 4 years with 55 guaranteed. I would offer tunsil 4 years 84 million, with 60 million in guaranteed money and I would walk away after that. If we can handle 21 million a year and be happy, we are better off moving on from him, taking our loses, and move Howard over to LT after next season. Lane Johnson's deal doesnt have him carrying a cap hit of more than 16.5 million, so there are ways to give Tunsil 21 million a season and stay around 14-18 in cap hit for the foreseeable future. 

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Posted (edited)

On Watson, I would not fully guarantee his contract. He takes too many hits and is at a higher risk for injury. I think Dak is about to get 35 Mil per year and Watson will want more. I think we are looking at 36 Mil per season to start. Do 5 years 190 Mil, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 per year with the first three years guaranteed (111 Mil). This leaves room for Mahomes to get his 200 Million dollar contract lol

Tunsil I think we should do a 7-year deal. He is really young and LT's last a long time. Howard Is the perfect RT. Don't mess with a good situation. Do a 7 year 142 Million dollar contract. 20, 18, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23. Do 56 Million (first 3 seasons) fully guaranteed. 


my original post the math was wrong. I had 122 mil total when it was supposed to be 142. Averaging just over 20 mil per season. 

Edited by amazingandre
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2 hours ago, amazingandre said:

On Watson, I would not fully guarantee his contract. He takes too many hits and is at a higher risk for injury. I think Dak is about to get 35 Mil per year and Watson will want more. I think we are looking at 36 Mil per season to start. Do 5 years 190 Mil, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 per year with the first three years guaranteed (111 Mil). This leaves room for Mahomes to get his 200 Million dollar contract lol

Tunsil I think we should do a 7-year deal. He is really young and LT's last a long time. Howard Is the perfect RT. Don't mess with a good situation. Do a 7 year 122 Million dollar contract. 20, 18, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23. Do 56 Million (first 3 seasons) fully guaranteed. 

when has anyone signed for 7 years?

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Per the Houston Chronicle's Aaron Wilson, the Texans offered Tunsil $18.5 million per year on their initial proposal, but Tunsil has balked at it and is looking for significantly more.  Anthony Castonzo is currently the highest-paid left tackle in the game at $16.5 million annually, while Lane Johnson is the top-paid overall tackle at $18 million per year.  Whatever happens, Tunsil is going to be the highest-paid tackle when all is said and done.  Tunsil doesn't turn 26 until August and essentially holds the ball in his court after the Texans gave up a pair of first-round picks and a second-rounder for him, along with Kenny Stills, last summer.

Update

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"Significantly more" is going to kill us, and there's no real escape plan from this demand. You can't let him walk, given the asking price to get him to begin with. 

Tunsil and company are smart; They know the Q rating on BoB and Cal is horrible, so shoot for the moon; If the Texans say no, they're the bad guy simply because this FO had demonstrated they're incompetent. 

Tunsil about to book $25mm a season.

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32 minutes ago, ET80 said:

"Significantly more" is going to kill us, and there's no real escape plan from this demand. You can't let him walk, given the asking price to get him to begin with. 

Tunsil and company are smart; They know the Q rating on BoB and Cal is horrible, so shoot for the moon; If the Texans say no, they're the bad guy simply because this FO had demonstrated they're incompetent. 

Tunsil about to book $25mm a season.

I bet he walks away with 20 per season. We offered 18.5 and he probably asked for 25. I don’t see him walking away from 20

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I’d burn the two 1st round picks before I paid Tunsil over 20 million a season. 
 

we can make him play for 10 million this year and franchise tag him next year and make him sit out. He’d lose more money than he’d make. 

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Rumor has it that Watson is seeking a 3 year extension, which would lock him up the next 5 seasons and allow him to hit free agency at age 30. Probably a 3 year/ 120 million deal 

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2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Rumor has it that Watson is seeking a 3 year extension, which would lock him up the next 5 seasons and allow him to hit free agency at age 30. Probably a 3 year/ 120 million deal 

Good work BoB. You set a precedent with Tunsil. Now DW4 wants get a bigger contract after 3 years too. Ugh.

I wonder if this will have an overwhelming effect on the league overall, with Dak signing a contract soon and Mahomes too, it's smart to take advantage of a growing salary cap.

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1 hour ago, Drained said:

Good work BoB. You set a precedent with Tunsil. Now DW4 wants get a bigger contract after 3 years too. Ugh.

I wonder if this will have an overwhelming effect on the league overall, with Dak signing a contract soon and Mahomes too, it's smart to take advantage of a growing salary cap.

It’s the trend in the NFL.....

All 5+ year contracts were basically 3 years contacts with a couple of non guaranteed years racked onto the end of the deal. (ie JJ Watt’s last 3 years of his 100 mil extension)

So leaving off those bogus years insignificant.

Watson will get a 3 year 120ish million dollar extension with the vast majority of it guaranteed 

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