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HoboRocket

Top 10 Statistical QBs 2019-20

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Wow. Jimmy G was an elite QB this year. Did NOT expect that. 

Look. I knew he was efficient. I watched him mercilessly destroy my Cardinals. But the way that everyone made it out to be, he was just a 3rd-and-long guy in most of the games where he'd barely throw the ball because he wasn't very reliable on an every-down basis. 

But Jimmy G was INCREDIBLE. 

Okay, so he threw for 3,978 passing yards. That's good for 12th in the NFL. Higher than Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson.

He threw 27 TDs. That's tied for 5th, and higher than Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and a host of others. 

His 8.4. YPA is third, and the highest among all QBs who started every game, behind only Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. 

His 69.1 completion percentage is fourth, behind only Brees, Carr, and Tannehill. 

Overall, dang. Jimmy G was kind of an elite QB. I thought he was more of an Alex Smith, Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton-type game manager this past year. He wasn't. 

He was definitely a top-10 statistical QB this past year.

Believe it or not, Jameis has an argument for top-10 statistical QB this year, too, despite the INT. He had 5,109 passing yards (1st), 33 TDs (2nd), 8.2 YPA (5th). He also threw for 243 first downs (1st by a mile). His pick-sixes and INTs led the league, though. 

My top-10 statistically, not talent-wise, at the QB position this year (in no particular order) are:

Lamar Jackson

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Patrick Mahomes

Jimmy G

Jameis Winston

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

The only snubs are Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz

Who would you list as your top-10 at the position statistically this past year? Would Jameis be included? What about Ryan Tannehill? And how much do you value rushing production statistically?

 

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On 3/24/2020 at 1:14 PM, HoboRocket said:

Wow. Jimmy G was an elite QB this year. Did NOT expect that. 

Look. I knew he was efficient. I watched him mercilessly destroy my Cardinals. But the way that everyone made it out to be, he was just a 3rd-and-long guy in most of the games where he'd barely throw the ball because he wasn't very reliable on an every-down basis. 

But Jimmy G was INCREDIBLE. 

Okay, so he threw for 3,978 passing yards. That's good for 12th in the NFL. Higher than Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson.

He threw 27 TDs. That's tied for 5th, and higher than Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and a host of others. 

His 8.4. YPA is third, and the highest among all QBs who started every game, behind only Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. 

His 69.1 completion percentage is fourth, behind only Brees, Carr, and Tannehill. 

Overall, dang. Jimmy G was kind of an elite QB. I thought he was more of an Alex Smith, Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton-type game manager this past year. He wasn't. 

He was definitely a top-10 statistical QB this past year.

Believe it or not, Jameis has an argument for top-10 statistical QB this year, too, despite the INT. He had 5,109 passing yards (1st), 33 TDs (2nd), 8.2 YPA (5th). He also threw for 243 first downs (1st by a mile). His pick-sixes and INTs led the league, though. 

My top-10 statistically, not talent-wise, at the QB position this year (in no particular order) are:

Lamar Jackson

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Patrick Mahomes

Jimmy G

Jameis Winston

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

The only snubs are Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz

Who would you list as your top-10 at the position statistically this past year? Would Jameis be included? What about Ryan Tannehill? And how much do you value rushing production statistically?

 

Jimmy G has the fewest amount of yards thrown in the air and the highest number of YAC from receivers (I'm 99% sure).

 

Not knocking his play, but he largely gets too much credit for their success.  

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Quote

Top 10 Statistical QBs 2019-20

It depends on what statistics you're looking at. if it's just raw numbers with no context then that doesn't mean much to me.

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Gotta stan for my boy Tanny. Dude was literally historic last year. 10 games played compared to 16 for the others hurts his bulk numbers, but he was more efficient than every single one of those guys.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/24/2020 at 3:14 PM, HoboRocket said:

Wow. Jimmy G was an elite QB this year. Did NOT expect that. 

Look. I knew he was efficient. I watched him mercilessly destroy my Cardinals. But the way that everyone made it out to be, he was just a 3rd-and-long guy in most of the games where he'd barely throw the ball because he wasn't very reliable on an every-down basis. 

But Jimmy G was INCREDIBLE. 

Okay, so he threw for 3,978 passing yards. That's good for 12th in the NFL. Higher than Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson.

He threw 27 TDs. That's tied for 5th, and higher than Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and a host of others. 

His 8.4. YPA is third, and the highest among all QBs who started every game, behind only Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. 

His 69.1 completion percentage is fourth, behind only Brees, Carr, and Tannehill. 

Overall, dang. Jimmy G was kind of an elite QB. I thought he was more of an Alex Smith, Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton-type game manager this past year. He wasn't. 

He was definitely a top-10 statistical QB this past year.

Believe it or not, Jameis has an argument for top-10 statistical QB this year, too, despite the INT. He had 5,109 passing yards (1st), 33 TDs (2nd), 8.2 YPA (5th). He also threw for 243 first downs (1st by a mile). His pick-sixes and INTs led the league, though. 

My top-10 statistically, not talent-wise, at the QB position this year (in no particular order) are:

Lamar Jackson

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Patrick Mahomes

Jimmy G

Jameis Winston

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

The only snubs are Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz

Who would you list as your top-10 at the position statistically this past year? Would Jameis be included? What about Ryan Tannehill? And how much do you value rushing production statistically?

 

You are looking at poor statistical metrics. 

Any/a is the #1 most correlated stat to winning.

Qbr is the #2 most correlated stat to winning.

Passed rating is the #3 most correlated stat to winning.

Look at those and get back to me.

 

Ps: bulk metrics (yards) have no or negative correlation to winning, normally

Edited by Matts4313

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2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

You are looking at poor statistical metrics. 

Any/a is the #1 most correlated stat to winning.

Qbr is the #2 most correlated stat to winning.

Passed rating is the #3 most correlated stat to winning.

Look at those and get back to me.

 

Ps: bulk metrics (yards) have no or negative correlation to winning, normally

Should you be comparing the stats to winning or something else like offensive/passing efficiency? It probably gets close to the same mark with how the league is but I'm sure Dak killed Goff in those 3 metrics and the Rams had a better record. 

Obviously an isolated incident but if you change winning to offensive/passing efficiency I think it would make more sense to me. 

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1 hour ago, LeotheLion said:

Should you be comparing the stats to winning or something else like offensive/passing efficiency? It probably gets close to the same mark with how the league is but I'm sure Dak killed Goff in those 3 metrics and the Rams had a better record. 

Obviously an isolated incident but if you change winning to offensive/passing efficiency I think it would make more sense to me. 

Thats the wrong way of looking at it. Its ANY/A vs your opponents ANY/A. 

So if its Cowboys v Chiefs and Dak post a 9 ANY/A (very good game) but Pat Mahomes post a 12 ANY/A (incredible game); then the Cowboys are going to lose. 

The team that post the higher ANY/A in a contest has between an 80-85% chance of winning. 

 

But, yeah, there are always going to be statistical outliers over the course of a season. Thats the reason its 80-85% and not 100%.

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11 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Thats the wrong way of looking at it. Its ANY/A vs your opponents ANY/A. 

So if its Cowboys v Chiefs and Dak post a 9 ANY/A (very good game) but Pat Mahomes post a 12 ANY/A (incredible game); then the Cowboys are going to lose. 

The team that post the higher ANY/A in a contest has between an 80-85% chance of winning. 

 

But, yeah, there are always going to be statistical outliers over the course of a season. Thats the reason its 80-85% and not 100%.

We are talking about different things. 

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Just now, LeotheLion said:

We are talking about different things. 

You asked about offensive passing efficiency and I should have answered more directly.

ANY/A measures offensive passing efficiency. It takes into account everything, including sacks.

QBR is a measure of % chance to win based on QB's play. Thats why it tops out at 100.

Passer rating is a measure of QBs stats aggregated. Most heavily favors bulk stat padding.

 

The 3 combined paint a picture of how good a QB is. 

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On 3/26/2020 at 3:53 PM, Matts4313 said:

You asked about offensive passing efficiency and I should have answered more directly.

ANY/A measures offensive passing efficiency. It takes into account everything, including sacks.

QBR is a measure of % chance to win based on QB's play. Thats why it tops out at 100.

Passer rating is a measure of QBs stats aggregated. Most heavily favors bulk stat padding.

 

The 3 combined paint a picture of how good a QB is. 

Passer rating most definitely does not favor bulk stat padding.

Passer Rating is an even congregation of TD%, INT%, Completion Percentage, and Y/A. None of those stats favor bulk stats. 

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The top 10 QBs will continue to rotate year-on-year as playing conditions change for every single one of them. 

If you look at QBR of the last three years: 

2017
Carson Wentz - 78.5
Case Keenum - 72.8
Tom Brady - 70.6
Dak Prescott - 69.9
Matt Ryan - 67.1
Big Ben - 66.6
Matt Stafford - 65.2
Alex Smith - 65.1
Drew Brees - 62.5
Russell Wilson - 61.9

2018
Pat Mahomes - 80.3
Drew Brees - 79.2
Mitch Trubisky - 71.0
Big Ben - 69.6
Andrew Luck - 69.6
Tom Brady - 68.4
Phillip Rivers - 67.8
Jameis Winston - 66.2
Matt Ryan - 65.7
Jared Goff - 63.6

2019
Lamar Jackson - 81.8
Pat Mahomes - 76.3
Drew Brees - 71.7
Dak Prescott - 70.2
Russell Wilson - 69.8
Matt Stafford - 69.6
DeShaun Watson - 68.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 66.5
Ryan Tannehill - 62.2
Derek Carr - 62.2

I'd imagine 2020 (if we even have a season) will continue to throw up some strange names. 

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QBR is a garbage, subjective metric that's about as good as judges at a dunk contest.

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5 hours ago, Danger said:

QBR is a garbage, subjective metric that's about as good as judges at a dunk contest.

QBR is literally worst stat ever. ESPN tried being innovative coming up with their own dumb stat. Its sad any other sites would even use it. 

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7 hours ago, Danger said:

QBR is a garbage, subjective metric that's about as good as judges at a dunk contest.

It’s actually a good stat that was poorly promoted by ESPN. The stat is just based off of EPA per play, and as someone else noted it has a very high correlation to wins/losses.

If used in conjunction with ANY/A and passer rating, it’s a very good stat.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

as someone else noted it has a very high correlation to wins/losses.

And that's part of the problem right there. QBR puts too emphasis on whether the starting QB comes away with a win or loss. As if it's like the NBA where a single player can make a profound difference. You can't do that with a QB without context because the NFL is MUCH MORE team based.

Mitch Trubisky had the highest QBR in 2018 when we won 12 games. Do you think he was the best QB in that year?

Edited by JustAnotherFan

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