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Daniel's Draft Thread

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Posted (edited)

I like having one thread for positional rankings and mock drafts.  Thanks to this pandemic, I've had a chance to watch a lot more tape on some prospects to get rankings together.  I'll update them as I finish, and as things change.

Disclaimer: I'm not an expert, I don't do this for a job, and I don't have time to watch every game from every prospect.  Yall don't either.  I expect my rankings to deviate from the norm, but that's part of it.  If, however, you think I've evaluated a prospect incorrectly, I would like to hear about it.  Guys can have single games that make them look very different.

Also, I don't do set numbers.  I rank until the dropoff is big enough for me to stop caring.  But I try to get 10 in for most positions.  Honorable mentions are not necessarily my next ranked prospects, more prospects that I want to talk about for one reason or another.

QB: The QB class is top heavy, both Burrow and Tua are great prospects, but after that, there's a big, big drop.  There's a plateau of several second round prospects, many of which are projects, then another, bigger gap before you get to the late rounders.  It's rare to see a QB class this staggered, but overall, the quality isn't bad.  Not very deep, but a lot of potential.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU: Not much to say here.  No brainer.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama: I'm concerned about his durability, but his talent is way above the rest of the class.

3. Jake Fromm, Georgia: I'm a Fromm fan.  Does he have physical limitations?  Yeah, but he has a high floor, and in this class, that puts him ahead of the rest, but there's a big gap between him and Tua.

4. Justin Herbert, Oregon: I do not like Herbert, but he has all the physical tools and has had moments of brilliance over the last couple seasons.  He's consistent, and less likely to bust than those below him.  He's only a hair below Fromm.

5. Jacob Eason, Washington: All the physical tools are there, but he needs major, major work.  If my team's staff had a QB developer, I'd rank him above Fromm and Herbert both, but with his low floor, he's a tab below them.

6. Nate Stanley, Iowa: His ceiling is backup, but high end backup.  There's a huge gap between Eason and Stanley.  Stanley can be taken in the fourth IMO.

7. James Morgan, FIU: Did well in a small program.  He did well at the Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl, but I did not like what I saw at the Combine.  Still, there's upside there.

8. Jordan Love, Utah St: Yeah, this is low.  I wouldn't draft him at all unless my staff had a proven QB developer, and even then, I wouldn't touch him till the third.  He needs to be taught to play the position from the ground up.  Elite physical tools, but you'd say the same about Chase Young, and you don't want him under center.  Watch his LSU tape and tell me you see a draftable prospect there.

9. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma: Hurts has physical ability for days, but his mechanics don't seem to have improved while he's been in college.  Maybe the NFL takes him higher, but I'm not a fan of his.

 

RB: Of course, this is a great RB class, but not as good as advertised.  A lot of the guys with big seasons in 2019 either suffered injuries or took a step back this year.  And of course, Etienne and Harris stayed in school too.  Still, the class is great, with two first round talents, and four second round talents.  After that, there's still a lot of good, with gadget guys and a ton of just productive college runners.

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin: I've been on the Taylor train for a while, so this isn't a reaction to his combine, but DID YOU SEE HIS COMBINE?!  Stud.  And he can catch well enough to be used in the passing game.

2. D'Andre Swift, Georgia: The default No. 1 for a lot of people got there for a reason.  Yall know who he is and what he can do.  Late first.

3. Zach Moss, Utah: There were so many highly touted defensive prospects on the Utes this season I watched three of their games just to scout them, and the one I was most impressed by, every time, was Moss.  He's an early second round prospect.

4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU: I struggled with these next two.  They're both great at what they do, and they're neck and neck, but I had to go with Helaire, though having Burrow and that ridiculous interior OL didn't hurt.

5. JK Dobbins, Ohio St: Dobbins is like a really fast human bowling ball, which is surprising since he's not that short.  He runs really low though.

6. Cam Akers, Florida St: I could be convinced to put Akers higher, based on the lack of talent around him and his impressive combine.  Taking him before CEH would be defensible, as 4-6 are very similarly ranked.

7. AJ Dillon, Boston College:  A big, powerful runner with great speed for his size, and explosiveness for days.  He's not much of a pass catcher, but he's the whole package on the ground.

8. Eno Benjamin, Arizona St: He's been productive at Arizona St for two seasons, both as a runner and as a pass catcher.  Doesn't do great at the second level.

9. KeShawn Vaughn, Vandy: Vaughn is a straight up downhill runner, but one with the size, speed, and power to make that work for him in the NFL.

10. Joshua Kelley, UCLA: His jumps left much to be desired, but he was a productive (ground only) runner in college, and ran a fantastic 40.

HM: Darrynton Evans, App St: A small, but crazy productive runner, Evans is a guy I haven't watched tape on, but he's clearly an athlete.  Worth looking into for a small, speedy guy, but his few receptions don't bode well for his usefulness.

 

WR: The WR class is absolutely stacked.  I think about 5 guys deserve first round status, then about 4 I gave second round grades to.  After that, the dropoff isn't huge, and there are tons of talented guys that could be had in the third, fourth, or even fifth rounds, but I didn't want to rank like 20 players.

1. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama: He does everything well.  Blue chip receiving prospect, just doesn't have elite athleticism.

2. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma: Another guy with everything, but I was actually really surprised by how slow he ran and his low vert.

3. Justin Jefferson, LSU: He was part of a stacked roster, but he got it done on the field and eased my concerns with a great showing at the combine.

4. Jalen Reagor, TCU: This season wasn't his most productive, but he looked great in 2018, and jumped out of the building.

5. Henry Ruggs, Bama: Most have him higher, but I'm wary of the combine star WRs without a ton of production.  Hard to get that playing second fiddle to Jeudy though.

6. Denzel Mims, Baylor: Very similar to Ruggs, he's your prototype burner, just ever so slightly less athletic.

7. Tee Higgins, Clemson: If the reports of his 40 times are legit, he's gonna drop.  Receivers that slow don't work out in the NFL, but he was a productive WR in college, at least.

8. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona St: Only one season of big time production, but he has size and tested well.

9. Chase Claypool, Notre Dame: A biig receiver, and he can really move for a man his size.  One note, but a rare combo.

10. Laviska Shenault, Colorado: I don't see the hype, and his injury exacerbates things, but he can catch a 50/50 ball.

HM: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan: Dude is an athlete.  He'd be a great upside grab in the later rounds when the top prospects are gone.

HM: Juaun Jennings, Tennessee: Despite his very poor testing, Jennings will be a good grab for someone looking for a possession receiver in the late rounds. 

 

TE: This TE class is...lacking.  There are two players I feel comfortable saying are starters this season, but even the top prospect is more developmental than you usually see.  After the top two, there are a few who look like solid depth guys who will see snaps this year, or are good developmental projects, but the pickings are slim.  Didn't take Trautman into account, because I can't find tape from Dayton.

1. Cole Kmet, Notre Dame: Big, lanky, and good hands, he's not where he needs to be to be a top TE, but he can add plenty onto his frame and become a matchup nightmare soon after he gets into the league.  Late first rounder/early second.

2. Brycen Hopkins, Purdue: Son of former Titans OT Brad, Brycen is a receiver in a TE's body, and his body of work shows that.  Worth a second rounder.

3. Thaddeus Moss, LSU: It's easy to forget just how stacked LSU's offense was this year.  Moss is a good all around player, but having Edwards-Helaire and Jefferson in the same offense makes your job a little easier.

4. Harrison Bryant, FAU: Bryant caught a lot of passes, but needs a lot more work.  He transitioned from tackle, so his blocking is good, and he could develop into a much better player since he's pretty raw.

5. Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri: Super raw guy coming off of an injury.  But he was surprisingly good in the combine drills, has protoype size, and blistering speed.  An ideal developmental project.

6. Hunter Byant, Washington: Not a great blocker, but an excellent receiver, and he has the strength to develop as a blocker.

7. Colby Parkinson, Stanford: He's a big one, and he has straight line speed, but he can't block, and his production dropped off this season.  Can catch though, I just think he's closer to maxed out than the others.

8. Jared Pinkney, Vandy: I had Pinkney higher up in this class initially, but one thing the combine is actually good for is red flagging guys with athletic limitations.  Pinkney runs like a pocket QB, and despite his good blocking, strength, and polished technique, that's a severe problem for the NFL, and may flag him as just a blocking tight end.  Which is too bad.

 

OT:  I really like this tackle class.  It's very, very top heavy, with five first round talents, a couple of second round talents, and several third rounders.  Then there are the small school guys that I haven't watched tape on generating buzz from quality combine performances.  A great time to need a tackle.

1. Andrew Thomas, Georgia: The most polished product in this class.  Some below him have higher ceilings, but for my money, his record against SEC pass rushers speaks for itself.

2. Mekhi Beckton, Louisville: In a 180 from above, Beckton needs a good bit of work, but if developed, will be a top 5 tackle in the league.  His floor isn't that low either, IMO.

3. Tristan Whifs, Iowa: Another freakish athlete, Whirfs is a better fit on the right side, but there, he should dominate as a run blocker.  Just look at those thighs!

4. Jedrick Willis, Alabama: Another technician in the mold of Thomas, Willis is great, but I don't think he's as polished as Thomas or as athletic as Beckton and Whirfs (despite his good 40), so he's the odd man out in the top 4.

5. Austin Jackson, OT, USC: There's a sizable gap here, but not a huge one.  Jackson is a first rounder, but a late one.  He's a solid, but unspectacular tackle.

6. Josh Jones, Houston: Just a hair below Jackson is Jones.  His needle seems to be pointing up, but he didn't test that well at the combine.

7. Ezra Cleveland, Boise St: Boy, he blew up the combine.  Looked good in the drills too.  If I had more tape to go on of him with elite pass rushers, he might be higher.

8. Isaiah Wilson, Georgia: Wilson looked kinda bad in Indy, but I liked him on the field.  He's a tweener, but I think he'd be solid at right tackle.  Third round prospect.

9. Prince Wanogho, Auburn: Everybody seems higher on him than me.  I honestly just don't see more than a third round skillset with him.  He's not awful though.

10. Matt Peart, UConn: Looked very fluid and natural at the combine, and tested well.  Haven't seen his tape TBH.  I don't watch many UConn football games.

HM: Charlie Heck, UNC: I'm more bullish on Heck than most.  I wouldn't take him until Day 3, but he'd be the first of the day 3 prospects in my ranking.  Tall as they come, quick feet, NFL bloodlines.

 

OL: This isn't a particularly strong center class, but it's not bad.  There are three I see as potential starters in their first season.  The guard class, however (when you exclude tweener OTs) is very weak.  I gave no guards a first round grade, and IMO, only Bredesen is worth a second.  The third round is the sweet spot there.  All that said, I couldn't really get much on some of the very small school guys, who I'm sure will be a good chunk of the OL class that's drafted.

1. Cesar Ruiz, Michigan: Ruiz had a great career, is just a junior with the arrow trending up, and athleticism.  He's the top interior guy, and a late first round prospect.

2. Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin: Surprise, surprise, Wisconsin puts forward more solid OL prospects.  Love the way he bounces around looking for blocks to make.

3. Ben Bredesen, Michigan: Bredesen I like quite a bit, but he played next to Ruiz, which can make things look better than they are.  But I might be overthinking it.

4. Cameron Clark, Charlotte: I really, really like Clark.  He moves well, super fluid, and pretty quick.  He'll be jumping up dramatically in level of competition though.  Early third.

5. Shane Lemieux, Oregon: Lemieux is solid, but I don't think he's as athletic as some of the other prospects, and he was half of a lot of double teams.  He dealt with the Utes impressively though.

6. Damien Lewis, LSU: LSU is a stacked team, but for my money, Lewis is the best of the batch.  Better fit on the right side.

7. Matt Hennessy, Temple: I like a lot of the center prospects this season.  A good batch.  Hennessy looked fantastic in the combine drills.

8. Netane Muti, Fresno St: Has trouble getting on blocks when he pulls or stretches, but otherwise a very good player.  Looks athletic too.  Late third/early fourth.

9. Calvin Throckmorton, Oregon: Throckmorton seemed to mostly struggle with speed rushers, which won't be a huge issue at guard.

10. Logan Stenberg, Kentucky: Gets overpowered on occasion, but otherwise is very good at sustaining blocks.  A little sloppy, so there's room to grow.

11. Robert Hunt, LA Lafayette: He's big and powerful, but he doesn't pull with enough speed and can get held high.  Level of competition an issue too.

HM: Solomon Kindley, Georgia: This is more of a dishonorable mention.  I do not see the hype with Kindley.  At all.  He's a fine college player, but he's sloppy, limited to RG, and not even that powerful. Got beaten with power, speed, and technique way more than a top prospect should.

 

Edited by Daniel
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Posted (edited)

Defensive Rankings:

DT: The DT class isn't particularly top heavy, but it is very deep.  I gave a Day 2 grade to 8 players, and there are guys I like later than that.  Immediate contributors are going to be few, but rotational guys and future studs abound.

1. Javon Kinlaw, SC: Ridiculous power at the point of attack.  Not sure how many pass rush moves he has, as he didn't need many really in college.  Ate up double teams and still penetrated.  Still has room to grow, and is dripping with potential.

2. Derrick Brown, Auburn: He's a pretty well rounded DL prospect, but I don't think he's on the level of Quinnen Williams.  Or Javon Kinlaw, for that matter.  I have him as a middle first round prospect only.

3. Ross Blacklock, TCU: Lacks power, but bends like an edge rusher, and is really quick.  He also does a great job of getting off of blocks.  End of the first prospect.

4. Justin Madubuike, TAMU: Not the powerful gap eater that some others are, but quick, a number of moves, and bounces around the Oline looking for weak spots.  Can have trouble shedding blocks.  Early second rounder/end of the first.

5. Marlon Davidson, Auburn: The more tape I watched of Davison, the more I thought he and Brown were pretty similar quality prospects.  Davidson is much in the mold of the two above him, just not as athletic.  He should go in the early parts of the second round.

6. Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma: Another well rounded DT, Gallimore has speed, power, and moves galore.  He's a solid, middle-second prospect.

7. James Lynch, Baylor: I'm possibly falling into a bit of a trap here, as when I first watched his tape, I thought "OK, late Day 2 prospect."  But damn if he didn't obliterate the 3 cone drill, and do well in the broad jump.  He also has a ridiculous amount of production.  Late second.

8. Raekwon Davis, Bama: Better than his numbers this season, he won't contribute much to the pass rush, but he's a solid run defending DT.

9. Rashard Lawrence, LSU: Just looking at this year, he'd be lower on this list, but he took a backwards step from an excellent 2018.  I'm very bullish on him and expect him to be a steal.

10. DaVon Hamilton, Ohio St: A bit of a flash in the pan guy, and he disappears for stretches.  Makes a lot of plays though.

HM. McTelvin Agim, Arkansas: Almost a one trick pony, but he has a decent bullrush and really, really excels at getting skinny to get past OLs.  A coach that can use him will be very happy.

HM. Larrell Murchison, NC St: Another guy who does one thing really well, he has a crazy first step.  Not athletic enough to make the most of it, and very stiff.  Potential is there though.

 

Edge: I'm not too excited about this edge class.  After the top two, there are questions about nearly every prospect in the class.  GMs will need to really know what they want and do their homework this season.

1. Chase Young, Ohio St

2. Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn St: YGM gets called raw or unpolished a lot, but I don't really see it.  He's a big pass rusher with speed and power.  He could refine his technique a bit, but that's true of almost every prospect.

3. AJ Epenesa, Iowa: Epenesa has an unmatched resume on the field these last two seasons, but he has some athletic limitations.  He's explosive and powerful, but not particularly fast.

4. Jonathan Greenard, Florida: Good bend, not quite enough speed to take full advantage, but great first step, strength, and some moves.

5. Josh Uche, Michigan: An Edge that plays like a LB. High motor, moves really well in space, and has speed and power, but lacks any real moves, which is why he doesn't have the production you expect watching him.  Late second round.

6. Darrell Taylor, Tennessee: My guy.  Taylor survives on speed rushing the outside or getting skinny or swimming to the inside, but he's got pretty good bend.

7. Terrell Lewis, Alabama: Another speed/power guy, he sets the edge well and is at his best when he can stunt to the inside.  Fairly raw.

8. Jabari Zuniga, Florida: He didn't play much this season, but he got consistent penetration when he did, and he's a freak athlete.  Boom or bust.

9. K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU: I probably need to defend this, but I don't see elite bend.  I see a fast guy with a nose for the ball who started blowing up when his team was rolling.  I feel like he's a Kevin Dodd: his team elevated him and not the other way around. Late third round prospect IMO.

10. Zack Baun, Wisconsin: Pure speed rusher who also has some off the ball LB skills, and is a hitter, but size is a concern.

HM. Bradlee Anae, Utah: He's done well in the postseason and is a passable athlete.  I was not impressed by his tape.  Would be a good grab for depth in the fourth round.

HM. Julian Okwara, Notre Dame: Twitchy, does well when he can get around the edge with speed, and can get off blocks.  But that's about all he got, hence why he struggled vs. Georgia's tackles.

HM. Curtis Weaver, Boise St: Weaver is an edge who plays like a DT.  Not very quick, a good bull rush, will struggle against NFL tackles.

 

LB: The linebacker class isn't nearly as good as the top talent classes, but it's nothing to sneeze at.  Simmons is a blue chip, Murray is a future stud, and Queen, Brooks, Harrison, and ADG are guys that look ready to start right away.  After that, there aren't any more complete LBs, but there's still a lot of gadget guys, depth players, and some promising projects.  A good bit of depth to this class.

1. Isaiah Simmons, Clemson: The best prospect in this class, but off the ball linebackers aren't as valuable as QBs, Pass Rushers, and OTs.

2. Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma: Murray doesn't read and react to the level that Simmons does, but he can tackle downhill and play sideline to sideline.

3. Patrick Queen, LSU: Queen is one of the LSU guys I'm a little suspect of.  He looks great on film, but he's more coverage linebacker than a thumper. Late first/early second, could be passed over if a team needs more physical play.

4. Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech: Brooks has been a monster in backfields for several years at TTU, and he can rush the passer with the best of them, but lacks coverage ability, though speed is clearly there.

5. Malik Harrison, Ohio St: Harrison is a big, athletic linebacker who can do it all.  Middle second round talent.

6. Akeem Davis-Gaither, App St: ADG is a little small, but the NFL is moving in that direction, and he was a tackle machine in college who also excels in pass coverage.

7. Troy Dye, Oregon: Dye is another NFL style lean LB, who can contribute to the pass rush and coverage.  He had three very productive years at Oregon.

8. Willie Gay, Mississippi St: The level of production isn't there, and he's not a finished product, but he is an elite athlete with prototypical size.  I expect him to go higher than his play warrants based on upside.

9. Logan Wilson, Wyoming: Fundamentally sound LB with intangibles and all that good stuff, but lacking read and react ability.

10. Anfernee Jennings, Bama: A pass rusher in college, his future is probably playing inside (or outside in a 4-3).  He can penetrate well, and showed some ability to cover passes, but he'll be a project.

HM: David Woodward, Utah St: Only played part of the season in 2019, but showed some real ability in that time.  He's a little small though, and not particularly athletic.  Could be a core special teams player.

 

S: Two of the consensus top safeties (Chinn and Dugger) are from super small schools, so I'm not including them.  Just don't have the info.  As a result, this safety class is really top heavy, and then there are some big drops.  Just one solid first rounder, two seconds, and then just depth guys after that.  Not a great class.

1. Grant Delpit, LSU: One reason I don't like Fulton as much as many others is the ridiculous help he got from Delpit and Stingley.  Delpit is a beast, has great size, and can hit.

2. Xavier McKinney, Alabama: McKinney makes plays all over the place, and made a ridiculous amount of turnovers this past season.  Not got the size of Delpit, but a very good safety prospect.  Top of the second, maybe bottom of the first.

3. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota: Winfield is small, so what he can be used for is limited, but boy is he an interception machine.  He reminds me a bit of Byard.  He should go in the early to middle second round.

4. Terrell Burgess, Utah: One of the many just OK Utah defenders, Burgess did have a nose for the ball, and did pretty well reading plays.  He's definitely got the speed you want in a FS.  He could be taken in the mid to late third.

5. JR Reed, Georgia: Not as big as you'd want for a box safety, not as rangy as you'd want for a midfield safety, he's a tweener.  Luckily, that distinction is disappearing for a lot of teams. Early day three prospect.

6. Tanner Muse, Clemson: The LB/S hybrid type that's getting to be in vogue, Muse was shockingly fast at the combine.  He ain't quick or fluid though, so that speed isn't that useful.  Still, a big athletic hybrid safety-linebacker is something a lot of teams would covet for depth purposes.

7. Ashtyn Davis, California: Davis got injured near the end of the season and did next to nothing at the combine, so there's a medical concern.  He doesn't look particularly athletic or aggressive on tape, but production is there.

 

CB: I like the corner class more than most seem to.  Two blue chips is already a good start, and I have similar grades on my third through seventh ranked players.  After that, there's a drop, but still good players.  I expect Day 2 to be very corner heavy.

1. CJ Henderson, Florida: I might be overthinking it, but as a Tennessee fan, I've been really wanting Henderson off the college field for two years.  He's a blue chip prospect, who does everything well and has elite athleticism.

2. Jeff Okudah, Ohio St: I like Okudah, but he doesn't have the history that Henderson does, and by that I mean Henderson was better in 2018.  Still a top 10 prospect and elite athlete.

3. Jeff Gladney, TCU: There's a sizable gap here, but Gladney is my only other first round CB.  He does everything well, and I like his physicality.  Could have better ball skills though.

4. AJ Terrell, Clemson: He got roasted by LSU, but that was an aberration.  He's a hard hitter and versatile, but not a blanket cover corner for man schemes.  Top of the second.

5. Trevon Diggs, Alabama: Terrell looked bad against LSU, but Diggs was manhandled by Chase.  He's not very physical, but he reads and reacts well and has great ball skills, something severely lacking in most of the other top prospects in this class.

6. Kristian Fulton, LSU: Fulton likes a cushion, and he gets manhandled, but he's got great physical tools and a nose for the ball.

7. Damon Arnette, Ohio St: I'm always a little wary of No. 2 CBs with a top end teammate.  It makes them much harder to evaluate.  Arnette gets separated on a lot, but he closes those gaps well, has good ball skills, and likes to spy in the backfield nearly every play.  Last of my second round corners.

8. Reggie Robinson, Tulsa: Recently evaluated him and I like what I see.  Fast, nose for the ball, but gets shaken easily and hesitates on blitzes.

9. Jaylon Johnson, Utah: Johnson is a very limited CB, but if you need a cover corner on the outside, and don't need him to tackle well, or matchup on physical WRs, he's good.  Looks more like a safety to me though.

10. Cameron Dantzler, Miss St: Dantzler's speed limitations show up on film, not just the combine, and they are concerning.  Strangely, he plays faster in hos 2018 tape.  But, he's a hitter, and a good tackler.

11. Troy Pride, Notre Dame: He reads well and doesn't rely on a cushion.  Plays more physical than he is, so he's gonna lose a lot of 50/50 balls.

Edited by Daniel

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See, I also absolutely love this tackle class. There are 17 guys that I could see becoming NFL starters, though the last four or so will have a somewhat steep climb.

Top-10 Talents:

Andrew Thomas

Tristan Wirfs

Mekhi Becton

Jedrick Wills

Round 1 Talents:

Austin Jackson

Josh Jones

Trey Adams

Isaiah Wilson

Round 2 Talents:

Matt Peart

Ezra Cleveland

Prince Tega Wanogho

Terrance Steele

Round 3 Talents:

Jack Driscoll

Lucas Niang

Hakeem Adeniji

Yasir Durant

Saadhiq Charles

Charlie Heck

 

This class is simply loaded at OL and WR. What a year to be the Cardinals or Bills.

 

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2 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

See, I also absolutely love this tackle class. There are 17 guys that I could see becoming NFL starters, though the last four or so will have a somewhat steep climb.

Top-10 Talents:

Andrew Thomas

Tristan Wirfs

Mekhi Becton

Jedrick Wills

Round 1 Talents:

Austin Jackson

Josh Jones

Trey Adams

Isaiah Wilson

Round 2 Talents:

Matt Peart

Ezra Cleveland

Prince Tega Wanogho

Terrance Steele

Round 3 Talents:

Jack Driscoll

Lucas Niang

Hakeem Adeniji

Yasir Durant

Saadhiq Charles

Charlie Heck

 

This class is simply loaded at OL and WR. What a year to be the Cardinals or Bills.

 

I was getting hyped for the RB class for most of the season, but even if Najee and Etienne had declared, I don't think it'd be as good a class as the WR and OT groups.  It's a special draft at those positions.  And that's with Trey Smith staying in school.

We're overdue for a good tackle class anyway.

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9 hours ago, Daniel said:

I was getting hyped for the RB class for most of the season, but even if Najee and Etienne had declared, I don't think it'd be as good a class as the WR and OT groups.  It's a special draft at those positions.  And that's with Trey Smith staying in school.

We're overdue for a good tackle class anyway.

Alaric Jackson stayed in school, too.

And you're absolutely right that we're overdue. The rate that we were getting starting-caliber tackles was simply unsustainable. The NFL was pulling more starting-caliber QBs from the draft than starting offensive tackles lol. And it's not like there aren't a bunch of open spots for these players to fill. We've been living off of 2016 and that OL class for four years. I mean, since 2017, the league has had:

Garrett Boles as a late first round pick, and wasn't loved as a prospect due to being extremely raw. He's been bad.

Ryan Ramsczyk, who slid to the very end of the first round due to a perceived lack of passion and interest in football, as well as medical. He's been very good.

Cam Robinson, who was more of a guard prospect and second-round pick. He's been average or bad at tackle, depending on the year.

Forrest Lamp, 2nd round pick who was a major injury bust.

Dion Dawkins and Taylor Moton were both small school guard prospects that have successfully remained at tackle in the NFL, but both are slightly below average.

Mike McGlinchey was a legit high-draft pick left tackle prospect, but has played right tackle. He went to a team that had good tackles already. Aside him, 2018 was very similar to 2017 in that it had a handful of early second round prospects. 

Kolton Miller was picked higher than the consensus, not sure how he's done for Oakland. He also went to a team that had a good OL already.

Orlando Brown WAS considered a first-round prospect, but then had an awful off-season and fell. He's been solid.

Isaiah Wynn hasn't been very impressive and had been injured a lot. He was widely seen as a guard prospect except by hipsters like Bill Belichick and I.

Besides those guys, there were a few developmental picks like Brian O'Neill and Tyrell Crosby. Overall, both 2017 and 2018 were very weak classes in comparison to 2020. The two classes combined only had one top-16 caliber prospect, versus four for this year. Those two classes combined also only had three or so more first-round talents (Ramsczyk, Brown, and Miller). This year has at least two (Josh Jones and Austin Jackson), but I also believe that Isaiah Wilson will be a first-rounder, and Trey Adams is a surefire first-round talent but has a massive medical history (he was supposed to be a top-10 pick with McGlinchey in 2017... Yikes) (also McGlinchey stayed in school). 

Alright, so what about last year? Well, 2019 had a very mixed OT class and it was definitely not a strength. Cody Ford and Jawaan Taylor both fell due to concerns about not actually being a tackle and knee issues, respectively. Jonah Williams had concerns about his viability at left tackle, but we didn't get to see how good he is since he missed the season. He was listed at guard by Pro Football Reference. Andre Dillard was a quality prospect as an athletic pass protector with a weakness in the running game, but the raw strength to maybe be decent in that facet of his game someday. Tytus Howard is a guard or right tackle for the Texans, dealt with his share of struggles early on, and then missed half of the season.

Getting 2 to 4 good tackle prospects a year isn't sustainable when you have 64 starting tackle positions, a lot of these prospects bust, and teams don't like to start rookies. This year, though? Super deep.

So I guess I'm saying yeah. I agree with you agreeing with me.

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What makes you put Fromm over Herbert? 

Obviously I'm a duck fan, and Herbert has been very frustrating at times. Still, Fromm's physical tools are so lacking that I find it hard to see a starter down the road. Herbert was consistently surrounded by very mediocre receiver talent (great line, no doubt. and too bad Breeland got hurt, that was a great connection) that made his life much harder than it needed to be. I watched a really thorough film breakdown of Herbie that showed him moving through progressions effectively (for the most part) and generally showing good ball placement. What did him in a lot of the time was his receivers either not coming back to the ball, breaking their routes off at the wrong places (ie before the first down marker or clearly not reading coverage correctly, tough to say if it's where they were coached to be), or just flat out dropping it.

I have Herbert below Tua as QB3, although I'm EXTREMELY skeptical of Tua's injury history. If I were a GM, I wouldn't touch him in the first, but I recognize that he was a fantastic prospect pre-injury

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3 hours ago, ScoDucks823 said:

What makes you put Fromm over Herbert? 

Obviously I'm a duck fan, and Herbert has been very frustrating at times. Still, Fromm's physical tools are so lacking that I find it hard to see a starter down the road. Herbert was consistently surrounded by very mediocre receiver talent (great line, no doubt. and too bad Breeland got hurt, that was a great connection) that made his life much harder than it needed to be. I watched a really thorough film breakdown of Herbie that showed him moving through progressions effectively (for the most part) and generally showing good ball placement. What did him in a lot of the time was his receivers either not coming back to the ball, breaking their routes off at the wrong places (ie before the first down marker or clearly not reading coverage correctly, tough to say if it's where they were coached to be), or just flat out dropping it.

I have Herbert below Tua as QB3, although I'm EXTREMELY skeptical of Tua's injury history. If I were a GM, I wouldn't touch him in the first, but I recognize that he was a fantastic prospect pre-injury

See, I kinda think this is an overblown narrative.  Fromm's arm isn't great, but it's not a noodle.  Dude can throw downfield when he has time to set his feet, and he can throw with enough zip to get by.  If you want a Brett Favre or Sexy Rexy type QB, he's not gonna fit, but I really think the lacking tools thing is waaaay overblown.

He's not an athletic QB, but if you'll look at his 3-cone times, you'll see he's quick.  He can evade pass rushers in the pocket, which, if you're not looking for a running QB, is the more important thing anyway.

I watched some of Herbert last season, and a few games of his this season (Auburn, Washington, Utah, Wisconsin), and it's hard to quantify why I don't like him from back then.  I remember he just looked unspectacular most of the time I've seen him.  I mean, Auburn was a tough team, but he just didn't really push the ball downfield successfully.  He has had great moments, like the Washington game, where he looked like the real deal, but I just don't remember ever being consistently impressed with him.  Fromm has had more of those moments in his career.

When I'm done with tight ends and interior OLs, I'll watch some more of Herbert's tape and give you better notes.  My feelings about Herbert are not new.

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On 3/28/2020 at 5:35 PM, Daniel said:

See, I kinda think this is an overblown narrative.  Fromm's arm isn't great, but it's not a noodle.  Dude can throw downfield when he has time to set his feet, and he can throw with enough zip to get by.  If you want a Brett Favre or Sexy Rexy type QB, he's not gonna fit, but I really think the lacking tools thing is waaaay overblown.

He's not an athletic QB, but if you'll look at his 3-cone times, you'll see he's quick.  He can evade pass rushers in the pocket, which, if you're not looking for a running QB, is the more important thing anyway.

I watched some of Herbert last season, and a few games of his this season (Auburn, Washington, Utah, Wisconsin), and it's hard to quantify why I don't like him from back then.  I remember he just looked unspectacular most of the time I've seen him.  I mean, Auburn was a tough team, but he just didn't really push the ball downfield successfully.  He has had great moments, like the Washington game, where he looked like the real deal, but I just don't remember ever being consistently impressed with him.  Fromm has had more of those moments in his career.

When I'm done with tight ends and interior OLs, I'll watch some more of Herbert's tape and give you better notes.  My feelings about Herbert are not new.

I guess we disagree on the Fromm tools point, which is fair; to each his own. 

On the Herbert front, I mostly agree, I just think we disagree on the cause. When I've watched him in detail (watched every game at least casually the last few years, and really dug into 4-5 of them), I see really few opportunities for him to push the ball downfield with his surrounding cast. Are there times where he passes up the big play in favor of something more solid? absolutely, but I think it has more to do with a lack of trust in his weapons. He dealt with tons of drops (not sure on the numbers but watching the games it was incredibly frustrating at times) and guys just being in the wrong position. This is not to say I think he's an amazing prospect- it worries me that these habits are too ingrained at this point and he will forever be a checkdown charlie. Looking forward to hearing what you have to say after digging in a bit more

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On 3/24/2020 at 7:03 PM, Daniel said:

Watch his LSU tape and tell me you see a draftable prospect there.

Kinda feel like you're box score scouting this one.  It wasn't great by any means, but it was hardly UDFA tape.  Of his 3 interceptions, one was a poor throw by Love (the one where Kary Vincent intercepted it).  Derek Stingley's INT was a great play by him, so I'm not going to fault Love for a great player.  The Delpit interception wasn't a great throw, but the WR didn't do him any favors on that throw.  And there were a TON of drops by his RBs and WRs.

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6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Kinda feel like you're box score scouting this one.  It wasn't great by any means, but it was hardly UDFA tape.  Of his 3 interceptions, one was a poor throw by Love (the one where Kary Vincent intercepted it).  Derek Stingley's INT was a great play by him, so I'm not going to fault Love for a great player.  The Delpit interception wasn't a great throw, but the WR didn't do him any favors on that throw.  And there were a TON of drops by his RBs and WRs.

No box score scouting on that one.  I've watched it twice.  By your count here, two INTs are his fault, and we're not getting into the dropped INTs by LSU.  IIRC, there were at least two.

And if we're getting into that, I seem to remember his WRs making some big after the catch plays for him to pad his stats.  But let's call it like it is: he played like crap.  He played worse than any other QB that played LSU that season, in fact.

We can do the same thing with his WF tape.  Say what you want about the talent surrounding him, a first round talent should be able to make better plays against good competition.  If he can't, it may not be 100% his fault, but there's a whooooole lot of space between "not his fault" and "first or second round QB."  Early round QB talents shouldn't need their WRs to make a play for them to complete a pass.

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Fromm only has a high floor if he has an overly stacked team like he did in 2018.

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54 minutes ago, ClutchDJ said:

Fromm only has a high floor if he has an overly stacked team like he did in 2018.

This basically sums up my feelings. He can hit a wide open receiver and cheer him on effectively as he runs down the sideline, but that's about it

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5 hours ago, Daniel said:

No box score scouting on that one.  I've watched it twice.  By your count here, two INTs are his fault, and we're not getting into the dropped INTs by LSU.  IIRC, there were at least two.

And if we're getting into that, I seem to remember his WRs making some big after the catch plays for him to pad his stats.  But let's call it like it is: he played like crap.  He played worse than any other QB that played LSU that season, in fact.

We can do the same thing with his WF tape.  Say what you want about the talent surrounding him, a first round talent should be able to make better plays against good competition.  If he can't, it may not be 100% his fault, but there's a whooooole lot of space between "not his fault" and "first or second round QB."  Early round QB talents shouldn't need their WRs to make a play for them to complete a pass.

I mean, I counted at least a half a dozen drops by his RBs and WRs.  Either way, trying to come to a conclusion based on a singular game is crazy.  Especially when one was the National Champ, and one finished 7-5 from a non-P5 conference.  He didn't play like crap.  He was okay.  As for the Wake Forest game, you're fixating on those interceptions.  Two of those were on him either trying to do too much or mechanically a great example of poor mechanics.  You're fixating on those turnovers, which he certainly will need to support.  I'd say I'm pretty critical of him, but this is overkill.  At this point, you're snowballing it.  Fromm certainly isn't a better prospect than Jordan Love, unless you're putting a premium on floors.  And based off your rankings, I'd think that's the case.

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