BayRaider 2020 Semi-Final Version Mock Draft

[BayRaider]

Final Version:

I know we are four weeks out but we have all the information we need. I may revise this a week before the draft with small edits depending on where Cam Newton and Trent Williams land. However, it would be Final Version 1.1 with minor edits.

This is what I actually think transpires come draft day. I spent about 8-9 hours on this one and pretended to be every team in-depth.

Trades:

- Miami sends #5, #26, 5th Round Pick to Detroit for #3, 4th Round Pick

- Philadelphia sends #21, #103 to Miami for #18

- New England sends #23, #87, #100 to Atlanta for #16, 7th Round Pick

- Seattle sends #27, 4th Round Pick to New Orleans for #24

- Cleveland sends #41 to Washington for OT Trent Brown, 2021 Conditional 3rd Round Pick (downgraded to a 4th if Trent starts 14+ games), 2020 7th Round Pick

Mock Draft:

https://www.thedraftnetwork.com/mockdraft/thniE9sqxZ

Once you are done viewing the mock,

Pick Analysis:

- Pick #3, I expect Dolphins and Chargers to get into a bidding war. Heck, you may even have the Panthers, Raiders, and Jaguars jump in as well. Dolphins will have to give up #26, which is really bad value, but I'm sure they want Tua at any reasonable cost. To me, Tua is a Top 5 QB in the NFL and it's absolutely worth it to give up Pick #26.

- Pick #4, Gettlemen likes the safe route and Andrew Thomas is the most polished LT in this draft. He's actually being slept on by everyone and can easily be argued as the #1 OT. He's not flashy, but he's damn good. This would be a solid pick for the Giants.

- Pick #6, I'm expecting the Chargers to sign Cam Newton. Even if they don't, I don't think they reach for Herbert here. They may roll with Tyrod and aim for a QB in the 3rd Round, which is why I have them selecting Eason in the 3rd. QB Carrousel between Cam, Tyrod, and Eason, one should stick and play well. Jedrick Willis is great value here for the Chargers and a Franchise Tackle.

- Pick #7, I don't expect a Rookie HC to do anything flashy their first draft. Build the trenches. Derek Brown is an excellent player.

- Pick #9, Herbert to the Jags? Going to have four Jag fans posting in this thread angrily. That's fine. Gardner Minshew in my honest opinion is not the answer. Their front office knows this. He's a absolutely excellent Fringe-Starter and Top-Top Tier Backup, but he's not a Long Term answer. He has a below average arm and cannot make certain NFL throws. It's hard to imagine the Jags pass on Herbert here.

- Pick #10, Browns go BPA, which is obviously Simmons. Browns defense could be very scary in 2020.

Pick #11, Jets biggest needs are OT, WR, and EDGE. Becton doesn't fit their blocking scheme and I think Gase is going to try to build the defense here, which was a massive problem last year. Enter K'lavon Chaisson. Has the potential to be the next great 3-4 EDGE in the NFL. He's a little raw but there's certainly flashes of Von Miller there.

Pick #12, Raiders get their Franchise WR. Jerry Jeudy. IMO the best WR of the draft. This should help the offense quite a bit and gives Gruden and Carr a #1 Receiver.

Pick #14, Bucs get a massive OT to help out Brady, Mekhi Becton.

Pick #16, I actually really see this one happening. Patriots trade up for Jordan Love. Love is actually a very veryyyy good fit for their offensive scheme. I really think McDaniels can do wonders with Love and he's probably already drooling over Love's skillset, some things he never had with Brady.

Pick #18, Eagles are thrilled when CeeDee Lamb is still on the board and they made a trade up with the Dolphins. Win-win for both teams as the Dolphins need a OT, and none are worth Pick 18.

Pick #19, Raiders draft Grant Delpit to pair up with Johnathan Abram. Delpit may have tackling woes, but he's excellent at everything else, insane range, great coverage, great single-high, and a fantastic play-maker. Mayock has a Depth Chart to the Chiefs in his Front Office, and Delpit can really help slow down the Chiefs passing attack.

Pick #20, Jags likely trade Yannick, and Gross-Matos is one of my favorite players in the draft. I think he is going to be an absolute stud.

Pick #21, Dolphins need to protect their new Franchise QB, and they select OT Josh Jones here.

Pick #23, I think AJ Terrell is a great fit for the Falcons Secondary and Scheme. They need a corner with Trufant's departure and they get one here with a trade down.

Pick #24, Ross Blacklock has Seahawks written all over him. Such an excellent scheme fit for that team. I really think Blacklock has the potential to be the NFL's next great 3T. Seahawks trade up, as Vikings probably pick Blacklock at 25.

Pick #25, Don't be mad at me Viking fans, but I think Aiyuk goes way higher than anyone thinks and goes in the 1st Round. This guy is a massive playmaker and has a very well-rounded game. He can take any ball to the house, solid route runner, solid hands, and solid size. He's my 17th Ranked Prospect, DJ's 19th Ranked Prospect, and Todd McShays 18th Ranked Prospect. Aiyuk is the perfect replacement for Diggs and do many of the same things Diggs did.

Pick #27, Saints grab one of their biggest needs, a flexible LB that can cover and defend the run. Queen is your guy. Really good fit for the Saints.

Pick #29, Titans grab one of sleepers in this draft, Zack Baun. He is going to be a terrific 3-4 EDGE player. I honestly think the Pats would of drafted him if they didn't trade up for Love.

Pick #30, Packers like to go trenches in the 1st, and I say they shore up the OL with OT Austin Jackson here. I think Jackson is really being slept on in this draft season and should be a terrific OT at the next level.

Pick #31, 49ers go with a guy you don't see in the 1st Round often, but IMO is a 1st Round Pick: Jaylon Johnson. Love this guy. Very physical corner, very good press coverage, great instincts, great size, and can learn a lot from Richard Sherman who have similar skillsets. Jaylon Johnson is Rock Ya-Sin 2.0 from last year with an even higher ceiling.

Pick #32, Chief fans about to be mad at me, but many people have this guy sneaking into the 1st. Marlon Davidson projects as a 3T at the next level and has great size and athleticism. He's a freak. Should be a fantastic replacement for Chris Jones in 2021. Even if Jones stays, him and Davidson can co-exist together and make a very very formidable team.

Pick #33, I wouldn't say WR is a big need for the Bengals but Jefferson is a Top 25 player in this class and you have a chance to reunite him with Burrow. I think the Bengals pull the trigger here.

Pick #36, Giants need a safety and get absolute tremendous value with McKinney here. You always have a couple 1st Round guys slip into the 2nd, and McKinney is one of them here.

Pick #39, Dolphins get one of my favorite players in the draft who I think will be a stud in the NFL. EDGE Julian Okwara. He's being severely slept on. Dolphins are building a scary, scary team. Better win soon Bills... better win soon.

Pick #40, Texans get WR Tee Higgins to replace Hopkins. I actually really like this BoB pick. Higgins is a solid player and should be a reliable go-to target for Watson.

Pick #44, finally the first RB comes off the board, and the RB domino begins. Some Colt fans will argue they don't need a RB but IMO Marlon Mack is not a feature back, and Taylor is a monster. Rivers will have to heavily rely on a dominant running game.

Pick #45, Tampa Bay gets the best back in the draft in my opinion, D'Andre Swift. He can do everything. Three down back to the core. Great runner, receiver, and blocker. Could be a stud in the NFL.

Pick #56, Dolphins add S Ashtyn Davis, a very physical safety with tremendous range. He's a projected Free Safety, and Dolphins keep building a scary-good team.

Pick #62, Packers get Chase Claypool. A boom or bust type Prospect who could be a Top 5 WR in the NFL if he "booms". Love Claypool and hope he succeeds in the NFL. Claypool/Adams would be a dynamite duo.

Pick #63, how did teams let Dobbins fall into the Chiefs hands? Perfect fit for them and makes their offense way, way better.

Pick #64, Seahawks are always looking for RBs and they need another one to pair with Carson and Homer. Cam Akers is a do-it-all RB and has Pete Carroll written all over him.

Pick #68, Jets need to address Wide Receiver, and surprisingly Hamler is still on the board. Gase loves his speed guys.

Pick #70, Dolphins decide to wait on RB until the 3rd, and get a perfect scheme fit in Zack Moss.

Pick #71, Chargers get a QB to gamble on in the 3rd to compete with Tyrod and possibly Cam if he signs there. Jacob Eason. He's got a rocket arm with great intangibles. He just needs a lot of fixing.

Pick #75, Colts draft their insurance plan, QB Jake Fromm. Fromm is a great fit for that Colt Offense. If Rivers arm dies mid-season, and the Colts are 6-2, insert Fromm to the rescue.

Pick #76, Bucs add Donovan People-Jones to go with Brady, Swift, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin? Yikes. Scary Offense.

Pick #77, I feel Cleveland is getting a bit overrated by draft analytic sites like PFF, and he drops lower than expected in this draft, but he's an absolute perfect ZBS Tackle. Fits in tremendously with the Broncos. Can also kick in to guard if need be.

Pick #105, Vikings gamble on Jalen Hurts, and see if they can develop him to be Kirks successor for 2021. Probably not, but it's certainly worth pick #105 to try.

 

Yes, I do see Eason, Fromm, and Hurts all falling to the 3rd Round. I think that's their true value and you won't see teams reach in the 2nd Round.

 

Raider Picks:

#12 - WR Jerry Jeudy - Alabama

 

Gruden loves his route runners and I think Jeudy is the best WR in the draft. He's as polished as they come, good speed, absolute fantastic route runner, and has tremendous elusiveness. And I think he's a little more aggressive than people give him credit for. This is the next great WR in the NFL imo.

#19 - S Grant Delpit - LSU

 

Many complain about his tackling but Delpit is a Superstar in the back-end when it comes to range, ball-hawk skills, coverage, and instincts. Mayock has a depth chart in his office of the Chiefs, what better way to slow them down than Grant Delpit? His tackling in 2019 may have been bad, but it was better in 2018. Was it the greatest in 2018? No, but it's amplified by people because of 2019. He also tackled very well in both CFP games. Pair Delpit with Abram and we have a dominant Safety Duo for the next four years minimum.

#80 - OT Prince Tega-Wanogho - Auburn

We need Tackle depth, badly. And not only is Prince depth, but he can be a starter. He is Draft Network's 66th Ranked Player, a starting OT, and we got tremendous value with him slipping to 80. Prince is a monster and Cable's type of OT. So not only does this give us depth, but it's also insurance for Kolton Miller. Miller was great in the 1st half of the season, however, in the 2nd Half of the season he was Above-Average with flashes of horribleness. I think that's a fair statement. Not saying Kolton is on the hotseat by any means, he had a solid 2019, but Prince makes a lot of sense here.

#81- OG Ben Bartch - St. Johns

 

Bartch is a guard at the next level and he's one of my favorite Guard Prospects in the draft. I think he is a Day One starter at Guard and becomes a very, very good starter. We need more Guards and the 3rd Round is always the perfect round to grab them. This also gives us flexibility of moving on from Gabe for a 5th Rounder and clearing cap space, if we do indeed want to do that. I'd still make the pick regardless though.

#91- CB Amik Robertson - Louisiana Tech

 

Even with Joyner on the roster, we need to address Nickel Corner. Amik Robertson may be my favorite Nickel-Only Prospect in the draft. We can groom him for a year and replace Joyner in 2021. Or if we are competing for a playoff spot Mid-Season, and Joyner is performing terribly, we can insert Robertson. Big fan of this guys tape.

 

Thanks guys, hope you enjoyed, one way or the other!

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by BayRaider

[Humble_Beast]

A really solid... I want Jeudy or Ruggs at 12.... I hope Grant is there at 19, at first thought you wanted to go 2 Tackles... We could use depth in the trenches, and can't go wrong there in the 3rd. 4th I would go RB, LB, or WR

[Humble_Beast]

I feel like we can sign a RB or LB depth for cheap in the next day or two.

[BayRaider]

3 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

I feel like we can sign a RB or LB depth for cheap in the next day or two.

I think we'll go RB in the 4th Round and may skip LB in this draft.

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

A really solid... I want Jeudy or Ruggs at 12.... I hope Grant is there at 19, at first thought you wanted to go 2 Tackles... We could use depth in the trenches, and can't go wrong there in the 3rd. 4th I would go RB, LB, or WR

Yes, Bartch is 100% a Guard at the next level. I definitely don't want back to back Tackles.

[Humble_Beast]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Yes, Bartch is 100% a Guard at the next level. I definitely don't want back to back Tackles.

what is Grant is not there at 19? what is plan B

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

what is Grant is not there at 19? what is plan B

He'll probably try to trade down. If not, I think the pick AJ Terrell, Patrick Queen, Kenneth Murray, or to a lesser extent: Xaiver McKinney. Probably one of those four.

[reddevil]

I like that there is an oline pick in the 3rd - but an OT that early and right next to another pick on the oline is overkill. I could see OT depth being picked if we trade back for extra picks. I definitely can see and hope we use a 3rd on a guard though.

[BayRaider]

29 minutes ago, reddevil said:

I like that there is an oline pick in the 3rd - but an OT that early and right next to another pick on the oline is overkill. I could see OT depth being picked if we trade back for extra picks. I definitely can see and hope we use a 3rd on a guard though.

Well we definitely need Tackle Depth in a serious way, and a good one. Prince fits that bill. Plus it was more of a “Can’t believe he’s still there” kind of pick, but still a need. 

[jimkelly02]

Overall very good.  Very well thought.  There’s something’s I disagree with but that’s just a matter of preference not quality.  

I’m glad you picked up a LT, Parker sucks and we need a backup LT if Miller gets hurt ever.  I don’t think Bartch is 100% a Guard. That’s your opinion and it’s fine but many many people project him to stay at tackle. 100% is another hyperbole.  If your going to spend a 3rd on a guard I’d much rather it be an actual guard not a project.

i think you overrated Aiyuk.... a guy who struggles very much with contested balls, gained the vast majority of his yards from screen passes (30%+ of routes) followed by go routes (17% of routes) and (13%) hitch routes.  Very limited route tree.

Prince is a good LT prospect but there’s a reason he fell from a 1st At the beginning to the season to a 3rd round prospect.  His feet are lacking.  He’s not the “beast” we once thought he’d be.  Still good value.m and I like the pick.

Id much rather have Pittman than Bartch.  I think 2 3rds on OLine is overkill.  

there’s actually a real lot of “perfect” prospect to team matchings here.  On a cursory look it’s one of the better mocks I’ve seen.  I Ike Blacklock to Seattle.... your dang right that seems like a perfect pairing.

 

why didn’t you give us our 4 and 5th round picks? Come on don’t cheat us.  You really should edit it to add them in!!!

[big_palooka]

C- grade for me.

Juedy's skill is route running. But he struggles with contested catches and has dropsies when defenders are close. That doesn't bode well for Gruden's offense that relies on crossers and intermediate routes. Lamb is the better fit. Equally skilled as route runner, but more physical and an Alpha (which you should appreciate). He fits more of culture of what Mayock/Gruden want. Tough, physical playmaker who can thrive in contested catch situations. 

Delpit at 19 same as above regarding what M/G look for. He's not a physical player. He's not a "superstar" at any one thing. Just solid at a lot of things. There is no safety in this class on the Adams, Derrwin, etc. level. Just a bunch of solid guys who will do fine. 19 is too rich for a guy who isn't even the best safety in the class. 

3rd round is just mess for me.  To many resources placed at Oline. OT is to early given it's a backup spot to Trent/Kolton who are long term starters. Depth is great/needed, but pick 80 on a swing tackle who won't play is questionable. 

G? They signed a veteran Kush to add to Devey and James (2nd year) who can play all 3 interior spots. They still have Good who can start on most teams. Pick 81 on a completely unneeded position at this stage is misguided.

Then finishing up your top 100 picks with a nickel CB when they need someone on the outside. 

In summary... Jeudy and Delpit would be starters and excel. Jeudy is an A pick even if not my favorite WR in the class. Delpit is a reach at 19, good not great player.

Using 3 top 100 picks on players who will have ZERO impact on the team for years is a fail. You have 5 picks is the top 100 and you come away with a WR and S who can start and little to no depth on defense, hard to get behind. 

[big_palooka]

7 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Pick #25, Don't be mad at me Viking fans, but I think Aiyuk goes way higher than anyone thinks and goes in the 1st Round. This guy is a massive playmaker and has a very well-rounded game. He can take any ball to the house, solid route runner, solid hands, and solid size. He's my 17th Ranked Prospect, DJ's 19th Ranked Prospect, and Todd McShays 18th Ranked Prospect. Aiyuk is the perfect replacement for Diggs and do many of the same things Diggs did.

This made me laugh. Nothing like reading 2 guys draft rankings, then ranking him at 17 right between them both lol. Why not be bold and go to 16 and really one up them both?

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

This made me laugh. Nothing like reading 2 guys draft rankings, then ranking him at 17 right between them both lol. Why not be bold and go to 16 and really one up them both?

He had 2 contested catches last year.  Even worse he’s 3/14 in his 2 years at ASU on contested catches.  Really struggled to adjust to passes that aren’t spot on. Also he’s not going to get away with his offensive pass interferences like he did in college.... notorious for pushing off

25 of his 65 catches were screens, like I said above it was 30% of his routes.  
the guy going to struggle early like Harry did, because that offense did not teach their WRs a route tree beyond: screens, go routes, and hitches (61% of his routes).

when he catches a go route though it’s usually for a TD or a ton of yards, 8 catches deep with average of 48yds.

he could go round 1, teams certainly have drafted worse WRs on day 1.  But the guys not the premier WR BayRaider makes him out to be.
 

[Justwinning]

Not really digging the OL picks. Too early for that IMO. 

[Geezy]

Our OL already has about 30% of our cap space allocated to it. I’m all for OL depth, but not at the expense of starters at other positions. Also, we need a CB that can play outside. 
 

I appreciate the effort though!