AFC Playoff Picture

[broncofan48]

Way too early, but how do you guys see the AFC Playoff Picture shaking out?

 

I think the AFC South winner will be Tennesee but whoever it is won't have a great record (9-7, 10-6)

AFC East will be New England, with Miami being a darkhorse for WC

AFC North will be Pitt, with Baltimore being in the running for WC.

AFC West, I see Kansas City winning it, but Oakland and Denver both having legit shots at the crown.

 

For Denver to make the playoffs, if they can't win division, one of Oakland or KC will be getting a WC bid, leaving Denver, Baltimore and maybe Miami fighting for the #6 seed IMO.

 

4-0 to start the year might be optimistic but if they can swing it, having a head to head victory over Oakland would be huge. 

 

In the end I think its likely Denver ends up as WC but which one could really make a difference.  I'd rather play Oakland or KC for a third time than go to New England if Denver makes it to the Divisional Round.

[AnAngryAmerican]

We're only 1/8 of the way into the season, I generally don't think the playoff races really begin to take shape until the calendar moves to October, but this is interesting to look at and see what we have to do. As a starting point I will say that the two wild card teams in the AFC will be 10-6 or better.

I think from the get-go we can eliminate the Jets, Bengals, Browns, Bills and Colts from contention. The Chargers, who I think are a top-half (i.e. top 8) team talent wise in the AFC, will join them this week if they lose at home to the Chiefs and find themselves at 0-3, especially if we and Oakland also win and there's three 3-0 teams in the AFCW. 

The AFCE will go to the Pats and the Dolphins have an interesting track for the wild card. On one hand they get four games against the Jets and the Bills but on the other they play the AFCW and NFCS, both are good divisions top-to-bottom. They have a brutal stretch that will likely determine their WC changes in late November where they play at Pats, host us and then host the Pats in three-straight weeks. They'll probably need to go 2-1 in those three games to have a legit chance at the wild card. 

If Ben stays healthy, the Steelers should win the AFCN relatively comfortably. I know the Ravens are 2-0 and have the Jags this week but they have a tough schedule after that with trips to Oakland, Minnesota, Tennessee, Green Bay and have to play the Steelers twice. They also have the Dolphins, Lions and Texans at home. Even still, 10-6 is not entirely out of the question for the Ravens. 

The South is a mess. I agree that the Titans are probably the best team, top to bottom, of that lot. I think DeShaun Watson is going to be a good player in this league, but it won't be this year, but the Texans' defense is legit. Bill O'Brien is a jerk but they have a pretty easy schedule; their only sure-loss games are this week at New England, week 5 vs the Chiefs and at Seattle in week 8, they also play the Steelers at home on Christmas Day. But they play their division and have patsies like the 49ers, Rams and Browns on their schedule. The Jags have everything except at QB and the Colts have nothing except for the QB (and he won't be back for a few more weeks) so I don't either factoring in; but Jags D is good enough to pull off an upset here and there and the Colts will be a different team when Luck comes back, but even still. The AFCS will likely come down to the two Titans-Texans games, with the winner likely winning the division and loser spending January at home. There's a chance, a good one I think, that the winner of this division is 9-7 and has worst record of all six AFC playoff teams.  

The AFCW is where it gets really wild. One of us, the Chiefs or the Raiders will win the division. Because of how good the division is, there's a real chance that all four beat up each other and even the division winner is 3-3 in their in-division games. The Chargers next five games are: vs KC, vs Philly, at NYG, at OAK, vs DEN and at NE (ouch!) so they could be out of it before Halloween (honestly 2-7 after the trip to Foxboro is not out of the question) but there's enough talent on that team that they can wreck someone's playoff hopes in the second half of the year. I don't even want to speculate on the best team among us, the Raiders and the Chiefs; all three good in all three phases and are well-coached. I like how we match-up with Oakland better, as it's strength versus strength (OAK pass offense vs DEN pass defense), than we do against KC. But I also think KC is the shakier of the two because two games has not sold me that Alex Smith is anything more than an average QB (the same could be said about Trevor, FWIW). The Raiders lucked out that three of their four trips to the East Coast (at WSH, at MIA, at PHI) come in prime time, only is their trip to Buffalo a morning game. All four of our East Coast trips feature 11am kickoffs. 

In the end, I think the WC race comes down to four teams - the Ravens, Dolphins, and which ever two don't win the AFCW - fighting for two spots. Because of this, from our perspective, we need to win as many of our AFC games as possible. Even two-and-half months out, our Dec. 3 trip to Miami in week 13 is shaping up to be a huge game for both teams

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I think there will be two, maybe three, AFC teams that miss the playoffs that have a better record in the AFC South Champion 

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I think there will be two, maybe three, AFC teams that miss the playoffs that have a better record in the AFC South Champion 

The thing is, TEN could go 6-0 there - they won @ JAX, and IND does not look challenging at all.  Winning on road vs. a division opponent is never a given, but you have to give them 2 for IND, which leaves them only 2 home games and 1 road game vs HOU.   That's a huge advantage to seeding if they run the board.  10-6 pretty easy if you go 6-0 in-division.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The thing is, TEN could go 6-0 there - they won @ JAX, and IND does not look challenging at all.  Winning on road vs. a division opponent is never a given, but you have to give them 2 for IND, which leaves them only 2 home games and 1 road game vs HOU.   That's a huge advantage to seeding if they run the board.  10-6 pretty easy if you go 6-0 in-division.

Going 6-0 in division is really tough. How many times have the Pats (consistently a top team in football) gone 6-0 against the AFCE (constitantly a bottom conference)? And the Titans are not the Pats.

I also have the titans going 4-6 out of conference but think they drop 2 in conference (Houston has a great D and there's still talk of Luck returning this year)

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Going 6-0 in division is really tough. How many times have the Pats (consistently a top team in football) gone 6-0 against the AFCE (constitantly a bottom conference)? And the Titans are not the Pats.

I also have the titans going 4-6 out of conference but think they drop 2 in conference (Houston has a great D and there's still talk of Luck returning this year)

Yeah, 6-0 is absolutely a monster.   Winning the road games is the toughest part, though, and they took @ Jax, which to be honest, looks like the only real contender (HOU has major OL and secondary problems).  Still, @HOU is going to be a test.   

We'll find out a lot about the Titans' legitimacy this week - on paper, SEA seems like a close road W - but the TEN strength is in the trenches, and an amazing run game and young QB.  SEA struggles against RB & TE who can catch ball, that's what TEN excels at.  I think given how bad SEA's OL is, we could see a very surprising easy home W (not a blowout, but a game they clearly outclass SEA).  SEA is awful against the run...which is eye-opening, they shouldn't be with that DL to begin with, then adding Sheldon Richardson.  But the stats and game film both say SEA is really vulnerable to the run, and their OL is maybe worst, at best bottom 5 OL, facing a very strong DL (Casey is a beast).   As you'll notice by my picks, I'm going TEN @ home.   We'll see, one of the non-AFCW games I really want to see this weekend.