2020 Draft

[Zappaz]

The more I think about the draft and what TT has done leading up to it, the less I think the Chargers draft a OT especially high. 

 

They locked up the right side with Bulaga but I don't think they go away from Pipkins so quickly since they used a 3rd on him just last year. I know a lot of people think that OT could be a first or second round target but I just dont see it happening. He was brought in as a project and played okay as the year progressed, I think he is plotted as LT #1. 

[BoltsFan937]

I think an offensive lineman with positional versatility (Wirfs) still makes a lot of sense at 6.  Even if Pipkins works out at LT we could slide Wirfs in at LG as an upgrade to Feeney.  Then in a couple years we could slide him out to tackle when Bulaga moves on.  I see your point though, and if we’re high on Pipkins, and aren’t enamored with Herbert/Love at 6, it opens the door for guys like Simmons/Brown/and I think Lamb. 

[BoltsFan937]

Filed under things that probably mean nothing, but QB coach Jeff Christensen is currently working with Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton.  Also, bleacher report is saying FWIW that Herm Edwards said in a radio show that Newton would be signing with the Chargers. Again, probably nothing, but I’m bored and dying for draft info lol

[Duffman57]

On 3/27/2020 at 9:10 AM, BoltsFan937 said:

I think an offensive lineman with positional versatility (Wirfs) still makes a lot of sense at 6.  Even if Pipkins works out at LT we could slide Wirfs in at LG as an upgrade to Feeney.  Then in a couple years we could slide him out to tackle when Bulaga moves on.  I see your point though, and if we’re high on Pipkins, and aren’t enamored with Herbert/Love at 6, it opens the door for guys like Simmons/Brown/and I think Lamb. 

I don't see this making any sense.

Team loves Feeney, and I thin, they still have hope for both Ques and Lamp.  They're going to battle it out for the LG spot. Are you really fine with spending the 6 pick on a OG? Because I'm not thrilled with that. Pipkins won't be on the roster anymore when the Bulaga deal is done.  He'll also be a free agent.  If you're drafting OT at 6, then you're giving up on Pipkins copmletely. And you have to remember something.  Campen hasn't even TALKED TO any of the OL right now.  I'd bet that we spend a 4th(ish) round pick, get them into camp/minicamp all of that and get Campen a chance to work with them, and see if he thinks they're ready, and then if he doesn't make a move for a Vet like Penn/Peters who are likely going to wait to sign till around training camp in order to not have to deal with any of the minicamps/mandatory stuff. They're not going to just go and replace guys who had a good showing at the end of the year and were drafted relatively highly, especially with a guy who has a massive history of drafting and developing very good OL in the middle rounds.

You just have to take QB there as long as you think one of those guys can be a franchise guy.  QB is just too valuable now a days to pass up on a guy who you think is a franchise caliber player.  You need a complete roster regardless of level of play at QB to win a super bowl, but QB is the only position where you need at least an above average or better player to have a chance.  

Even if its bests case scenario, you would take Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Wentz, Goff, guys who are middling QB's who I would call just above average, over someone like even Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner if Simmons does end up that good, or Tyron Smith/Trent Williams etc if Wirfs ends up that good.  And those top 2 guys are the only ones that I would even THINK of trading for even just a good QB.  So basically Simmons/Wirfs/Thomas/Becton/Wills has to be clearly the best LB/OT in the league in order to offset the value of even come close to just an above average QB.  On top of that, of the best LB's in the league, most of them weren't 1st rounders, whereas QB it's almost all top picks.  The value just isn't there to pick any other position if you think that, even if we miss out on Tua, Herbert/Love are more than likely going to be above average QB's in this league.

[BoltsFan937]

1. The team “loves Freeney” cmon man, that can’t be true. And if so, I’d have to question who’s evaluating the talent on this team because Feeney is average at best.  We can get out of the Bulaga contract after 2021 with a 3m dead cap hit as opposed to, I believe a 14m 2022 salary.  At that point, we would have cut bait on Bulaga and Pouncey (@25m in salary) and replaced with possibly Ques and Wirfs still on a rookie deal, would save a lot of money.  So yeah, he makes some sense to me. You’re also assuming Pipkins works out at LT, that’s not guaranteed (although I actually do think he has some promise).

2. We play in the same division as the best freaking player in the league. So we have to play this dude twice a year and battle for the division and you want to go into those battles with Justin Herbert? Taking a QB at 6 is going to marry us to that dude for at least the next 3 years and that’s if he falls flat on his face.  So I’m sorry if I’m not excited about possibly ending up with a Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins or “middling” QB at 6 because of positional value.  All you’re doing by picking one of those guys is ensuring we get our tails kicked for the foreseeable future. We just saw what happened to the 49ers in the super bowl under those circumstances.  
 

I just think you take the best player there at 6. If it’s Wirfs or Wills take em, and figure out the QB thing later. 

[Duffman57]

15 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

1. The team “loves Freeney” cmon man, that can’t be true. And if so, I’d have to question who’s evaluating the talent on this team because Feeney is average at best.  We can get out of the Bulaga contract after 2021 with a 3m dead cap hit as opposed to, I believe a 14m 2022 salary.  At that point, we would have cut bait on Bulaga and Pouncey (@25m in salary) and replaced with possibly Ques and Wirfs still on a rookie deal, would save a lot of money.  So yeah, he makes some sense to me. You’re also assuming Pipkins works out at LT, that’s not guaranteed (although I actually do think he has some promise).

2. We play in the same division as the best freaking player in the league. So we have to play this dude twice a year and battle for the division and you want to go into those battles with Justin Herbert? Taking a QB at 6 is going to marry us to that dude for at least the next 3 years and that’s if he falls flat on his face.  So I’m sorry if I’m not excited about possibly ending up with a Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins or “middling” QB at 6 because of positional value.  All you’re doing by picking one of those guys is ensuring we get our tails kicked for the foreseeable future. We just saw what happened to the 49ers in the super bowl under those circumstances.  
 

I just think you take the best player there at 6. If it’s Wirfs or Wills take em, and figure out the QB thing later. 

Lynn has talked about Feeney non stop.  He said that they have him as the better C option over Quessenberry, among many other votes of confidence.

I just don't get the hate for him anymore.  I went back and watched more than a few games from the end of last year (yay quarantine boredom and getting paid to not work), and he was really solid.  Definitely average to above average in those games.  I get PFF hates him, and that he had his struggles (that were very noticeable mind you), but he was good at least down the stretch of last year, and he was definitely the best player on that OL at the end of the year....

 

Yes, I think Herbert can develop into a REALLY good QB, and I think the absolute worst case is you're getting a Colin Kaepernick type of player out of him, with the hopes he develops some touch and gets a little bit more comfortable in the pocket, because if that happens he's got Aaron Rodgers type of upside. Am I worried about a few of his traits, absolutely, but if you're waiting to take a perfect QB, then it's going to be a long time and a lot of ****ty football till you get there.  You see a QB you think is an good-above average NFL QB you go after him.  You're argument is "what if he's a bust".  What if Wirfs is Greg Robinson 2.0? What if Isaiah Simmons is Aaron Curry. QB is the one position where more than anything, especially with a short term option in place (which I think we roll with at least to start the season regardless of if we draft a guy at 6).  Matt Ryan, Goff, Foles, Flacco, Eli and the ghost of Peyton manning, are all just good QB's that have won a super bowl in recent years.  Would you love to get a top 5 guy at the position, duhhhh, but those guys come around once every few drafts and if you don't stumble upon them in the 2nd-3rd rounds, and aren't bad enough that particular year that there's an elite QB, then your SOL.  

 

But basically you're saying that you would rather be the Raiders, or Broncos, and just throw a pick at a 2nd round QB when you already have nothing at the position and hope the guy works out? Because that's how you waste a LOT of talent on your roster and become a 7-9 (sorry 8-9) team for the next 4 years regardless of how good your roster is.  But yeah, no I'd hate to be the 49ers and just barely lose out to the best QB in the league in a super bowl.  That would be awful. The matter of fact to me is that we can't win long term with what we have at QB, unless Stick is the second coming of Tony Romo.  A 2nd/3rd rounder isn't going to change that, just like Easton Stick didn't change that.

[Mojibwe]

Yeah there’s still a large amounts of misses on 1st round qb’s also though. Do you think Herbert is closer to Darnold/Jones or Rosen/lynch/trubinsky/bortles?

[BoltsFan937]

2 hours ago, Mojibwe said:

Yeah there’s still a large amounts of misses on 1st round qb’s also though. Do you think Herbert is closer to Darnold/Jones or Rosen/lynch/trubinsky/bortles?

I think you meant this for Duffman, but I’ll tell you my thoughts on Herbert. I think he has obvious arm talent,  his character make up is fine,  he seems to make good decisions with the ball and he certainly has the size and athleticism you would love to see in a QB.  I think he struggles when he sees a rush and that scares the crap out of me in the NFL.  His eyes go to the rush instead of looking to attack downfield (something Burrow was excellent at and scored huge plays off of). What worries me is, I’m not sure that’s correctable if you’re nervous or scared in the pocket.  A guy like David Carr couldn’t overcome that.  He’s also been a bit inconsistent in his intermediate throws (that I’m not as worried about).  It also bothers me that he didn’t take over games where you think he should (Arizona State stands out), just shouldn’t lose a game like that.  I see a lot of one read and rip-its, not a lot of off script stuff or creating when things break down, which we all know is going to happen in the NFL

Edited March 31, 2020 by BoltsFan937

[Duffman57]

2 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think you meant this for Duffman, but I’ll tell you my thoughts on Herbert. I think he has obvious arm talent,  his character make up is fine,  he seems to make good decisions with the ball and he certainly has the size and athleticism you would love to see in a QB.  I think he struggles when he sees a rush and that scares the crap out of me in the NFL.  His eyes go to the rush instead of looking to attack downfield (something Burrow was excellent at and scored huge plays off of). What worries me is, I’m not sure that’s correctable if you’re nervous or scared in the pocket.  A guy like David Carr couldn’t overcome that.  He’s also been a bit inconsistent in his intermediate throws (that I’m not as worried about).  It also bothers me that he didn’t take over games where you think he should (Arizona State stands out), just shouldn’t lose a game like that.  I see a lot of one read and rip-its, not a lot of off script stuff or creating when things break down, which we all know is going to happen in the NFL

Honestly I've never seen that problem with him before. He's actually fairly good at keeping his eyes downfield when he's escaping pressure. My issue with him is that he gets frantic after he's pressured and doesn't stay composed, which leads to a lot of bad mechanics and a lot of missed throws.  I think actually escaping and looking downfield isn't as much of an issue.  But the same premise. Its weird to me though because sometimes he looks SOOOOO good working the pocket and moving around, and then there's other plays where it looks like he just panics and forgets everything.  The "QB School" video on him (and if you want to watch part 2 he breaks down what went wrong (and right) during he ASU game) does a really good breakdown of his good in the pocket. That's a really interesting video on him, and it just shows over and over that he's SUCH a good decision maker, regardless of how he's pressured.

IIRC the Arizona State game really should've been won.  His guys dropped a few easy TD's and really could've done so much better.

But what I took most from that video is that the "1 read and go" plays are less clear than you think they are.  There's a lot of plays where he throws a little dump off, but in reality, it's because his first two reads wheren't there, and he goes to his checkdown.  He does that REALLY often, because his WR's are trash.

But to answer your question @Mojibwe, I think he's on the Jones/Darnold side of that for sure.  He might not be in the Mahomes, Rodgers type of elite QB, but he just makes everything look so easy.  He does all of the little things right.  The biggest thing there is that the floor is SO high. Because he simply doens't turn the ball over.  That might mean he's got a little bit of captain checkdown in him, and the QB school breakdown had a few plays of him missing bigger throws and a few TD's, but he keeps you alive and keeps drives going.  But his awareness and mind along with his accuracy gives him an (obviously not expected) chance to be a Tom Brady kind of QB, where he just repeatedly picks you apart that way.  He strikes me as a guy who's not going to beat you with things breaking down, but he's going to slice you apart pre-snap.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Duffman57

[BoltsFan937]

I went and watched both of those QB School videos from start to finish.  I thought they were both really well done (maybe O’Sullivan was a little effusive in his praise sometimes on some routine throws). I was a little lazy in my initial assessment, I think you’re (Duffman) right about the mechanics breaking down a little, where I thought he was more skittish. When he gets his lower half right and shoulders square, he throws some beautiful balls. But it gets real ugly when his lower body isn’t right. I won’t regurgitate JT in the videos but his breakdown was great.  If he can drop back and get his feet right, plant and throw, I think he’d be fine.  Not sure how he’d do rolling out and making plays.  For us, my question would be, if we wanted a guy to drop back and sling it, why not just keep Rivers? I think we’re looking for a guy to get out on the perimeter a bit, make some off script throws, make some plays with his legs when things break down.  I’d be surprised if Herbert was our guy, I think and I’ve thought all along, we’d prefer Love or at least a player more like Love than Herbert

[Duffman57]

18 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I went and watched both of those QB School videos from start to finish.  I thought they were both really well done (maybe O’Sullivan was a little effusive in his praise sometimes on some routine throws). I was a little lazy in my initial assessment, I think you’re (Duffman) right about the mechanics breaking down a little, where I thought he was more skittish. When he gets his lower half right and shoulders square, he throws some beautiful balls. But it gets real ugly when his lower body isn’t right. I won’t regurgitate JT in the videos but his breakdown was great.  If he can drop back and get his feet right, plant and throw, I think he’d be fine.  Not sure how he’d do rolling out and making plays.  For us, my question would be, if we wanted a guy to drop back and sling it, why not just keep Rivers? I think we’re looking for a guy to get out on the perimeter a bit, make some off script throws, make some plays with his legs when things break down.  I’d be surprised if Herbert was our guy, I think and I’ve thought all along, we’d prefer Love or at least a player more like Love than Herbert

Honestly, the more I watched JT break it down, the less it seemed like that was the cause.  I think the cause is him getting rattled.  He's kind of like Rivers in the fact that when it rains it pours with bad decisions and breakdowns, and you see that in the Arizona state game (the back to back picks among other breakdowns).  But you see it go so well when he's on the move during the WSU game.  It really does seem mental with him where he gets really rattled. They changed C's and had to shift the OL around in the ASU game, and he started looking at his protection.  Also going into the ASU game he lost his best WR and TE was already out.  So I think that has something to do with it.  Super weird to see such good decisions and then imediately going to all bad decisions in the game. He had 3 INT's all season and then throws them back to back.

But I think one thing stuck with me. Honestly Herbert is better on the run than you think, but he does the one thing that Lynn cares most about in his QB's. He takes care of the football SO well.  He's a guy that barely ever turns the ball over. 

[BoltsFan937]

That ASU game was ugly. I’m not gonna kill a kid over one bad game, I remember Roethlisberger threw 4 picks against Iowa his last year. It happens.  If I was worried about anything it would be his lower body mechanics. JT points it out time and time again where his lower body isn’t lined with where he’s throwing the ball, seems like that’s when the throws are wildly off. That seems correctable, but it’s a little concerning coming from a senior QB, would think that would be cleaned up by now.  

[Duffman57]

5 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

That ASU game was ugly. I’m not gonna kill a kid over one bad game, I remember Roethlisberger threw 4 picks against Iowa his last year. It happens.  If I was worried about anything it would be his lower body mechanics. JT points it out time and time again where his lower body isn’t lined with where he’s throwing the ball, seems like that’s when the throws are wildly off. That seems correctable, but it’s a little concerning coming from a senior QB, would think that would be cleaned up by now.  

It's also something he talks about in one of his chats. He's basically said that when you get to the NFL, they'll revamp everything technique wise. There's a lot of little thing that are taught for certain things in different schemes (I think they have him take that false step and may have had his stance closed off for a reason in college, things like that). So I think those things can get fixed.  But I think he's one of those guys who's going to have games where he goes off the rails, sorta like Romo or Rivers. But I still think that his mobility and ability to take care of the ball are things that are going to REALLY sell Lynn as a "best of both worlds" type of guy. 

[Duffman57]

26 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

That ASU game was ugly. I’m not gonna kill a kid over one bad game, I remember Roethlisberger threw 4 picks against Iowa his last year. It happens.  If I was worried about anything it would be his lower body mechanics. JT points it out time and time again where his lower body isn’t lined with where he’s throwing the ball, seems like that’s when the throws are wildly off. That seems correctable, but it’s a little concerning coming from a senior QB, would think that would be cleaned up by now.  

Go get in the FFMD thread fool.....

[BoltsFan937]

Well guys, we’re four days away from the draft.  Anyone have any new thoughts on who we’re taking at 6?  I can’t imagine this being anything other than a QB.  To go tackle would mean basically giving up on our third rounder from last year after one season, it’s hard for me to see that.  We already have a Isaiah Simmons in Derwin James. I can’t see us taking Derrick Brown after spending high picks on Jones and Tillery in the last couple years.  I could see Okudah if he’s still on the board, but I don’t know how you go corner over QB.