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Zappaz

2020 Draft

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I'm thinking Tua... and Tua... and yeah Tua.

 

Lets say the board falls Burrow, Young, Okudah, Simmons, Tagovailoa.... Probably the most likely but also worst fall for the Chargers. 

1- Could go Herbert, or Love if they so desire, to lock up a QB. This is what is most expected, but do the Chargers covet either of those players enough to jump that early?

2- Could go OT with which ever they have rated highest. Like you said, I'm not sold on them giving up on Pipkins after 1 year but maybe they grab someone who can start day 1 then groom Pipkins for RT to take over after Bulaga is done. 

3- Maybe we go Brown to solidify the Dline. I doubt they do after spending money for a DT in free agency and picking Tillery in the first last year. 

4- Pass rusher? Would make sense with Bosa due a big deal and Ingram getting older but is there really any edge guy worth #6?

5- Wideout? I could see them taking the top rated wideout the more I think about it. With Allen due a big deal soon and Williams not far behind... then the cupboard being empty behind them then maybe wideout is a true option. The more I think about it the more I think this is a valid option especially if they think Tyrod is the guy next season... or maybe they already have a deal in place for Newton (please no). 

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20 minutes ago, Zappaz said:

I'm thinking Tua... and Tua... and yeah Tua.

 

Lets say the board falls Burrow, Young, Okudah, Simmons, Tagovailoa.... Probably the most likely but also worst fall for the Chargers. 

1- Could go Herbert, or Love if they so desire, to lock up a QB. This is what is most expected, but do the Chargers covet either of those players enough to jump that early?

2- Could go OT with which ever they have rated highest. Like you said, I'm not sold on them giving up on Pipkins after 1 year but maybe they grab someone who can start day 1 then groom Pipkins for RT to take over after Bulaga is done. 

3- Maybe we go Brown to solidify the Dline. I doubt they do after spending money for a DT in free agency and picking Tillery in the first last year. 

4- Pass rusher? Would make sense with Bosa due a big deal and Ingram getting older but is there really any edge guy worth #6?

5- Wideout? I could see them taking the top rated wideout the more I think about it. With Allen due a big deal soon and Williams not far behind... then the cupboard being empty behind them then maybe wideout is a true option. The more I think about it the more I think this is a valid option especially if they think Tyrod is the guy next season... or maybe they already have a deal in place for Newton (please no). 

You shouldn't want Love, especially not at 6.  The people trying to sell him as a poor man's Mahomes are spoon-feeding themselves a narrative.  You legitimately have to break down how he plays QB to bare bones and hope he takes to having it rewritten entirely.  He is closer to what the Cromagnon pundits like Bill Polian thought Lamar Jackson was than Lamar Jackson ever was.  Seek out Jamie Hoyle's eval on Love, it's spot on.

You have to ask yourself if, under these current logistics with the draft, would you really sweat that much taking someone like CJ Henderson who fills a need and while he's not Okudah, the gap between him and Okudah is considerably closer than the gap between Henderson and the next-best CB?

I'm pretty damn confident they're not taking DL in the 1st round; I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them not go DT the entire draft, particularly with the Linval Joseph pickup in free agency.  And of the guys that this TT FO has actually spent draft picks on at all, they've been guys with pass-rushing prowess not run-stoppers.  Just been the way it is and how this FO values DT's apparently.

I say all this fully recognizing the great infrequency with which Telesco moves around in drafts (it just very rarely happens).

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6 minutes ago, The LBC said:

You shouldn't want Love, especially not at 6.  The people trying to sell him as a poor man's Mahomes are spoon-feeding themselves a narrative.  You legitimately have to break down how he plays QB to bare bones and hope he takes to having it rewritten entirely.  He is closer to what the Cromagnon pundits like Bill Polian thought Lamar Jackson was than Lamar Jackson ever was.  Seek out Jamie Hoyle's eval on Love, it's spot on.

You have to ask yourself if, under these current logistics with the draft, would you really sweat that much taking someone like CJ Henderson who fills a need and while he's not Okudah, the gap between him and Okudah is considerably closer than the gap between Henderson and the next-best CB?

I'm pretty damn confident they're not taking DL in the 1st round; I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them not go DT the entire draft, particularly with the Linval Joseph pickup in free agency.  And of the guys that this TT FO has actually spent draft picks on at all, they've been guys with pass-rushing prowess not run-stoppers.  Just been the way it is and how this FO values DT's apparently.

I say all this fully recognizing the great infrequency with which Telesco moves around in drafts (it just very rarely happens).

 

Yeah I'm on the Tua or bust wagon. At first I thought maybe Love because he was getting hyped up but the more I looked at him the less I liked. 

 

I didn't think about Henderson but that is definitely an option and I could easily see TT going that route as it does fill an immediate and future need. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

I can’t see Herbert going that high in this draft. To us or anyone. I really think he’s the guy that falls, that’s there at the end of round one, maybe someone trades back up for.  I don’t want to bash the kid, I think he has tools, but there’s enough question marks there to give teams pause with a pick that high.  I see him as this years Drew Lock.  Then again we’ve seen Trubisky, Ponder, Lynch and others go high so who knows.  
Jordan Love, when I watched his highlight tape I wanted to take him 1 overall.  The more you dig though, the more concerns you have.  He’s a day two prospect to me, I wouldn’t have a problem rolling the dice on him on Friday if he’s there, but definitely pass at 6. 

I think Tua is in play at 6 if he’s available and I think he will be.  Outside of the obvious health questions though, I wonder if he’s mobile enough for Anthony Lynn. I’ve always felt Lynn coveted a dual threat QB and do you really want Tua running around with his history?  We got rid of Rivers because he was a statue, if the goal is to make Tua a pocket passer to limit his exposure, what sense does that make?  I think it also may explain why we’ve been connected somewhat to Hurts, because of his mobility. 
Outside of QB and tackle, I can’t see us taking Brown or Simmons, there’s not an end worth the 6th pick so that leaves WR and corner.  Personally I’d love to get Jeudy in that spot and I think it makes some sense for reasons that Zappaz pointed out above.  Not necessarily the speed guy, but we could slide Keenan down in the slot.  It makes some sense to me and the need meets the value. I’d also say if we don’t go receiver at 6 (which I admit most likely won’t happen) then I think Aiyuk, Reagor or Hamlet would make a lot of sense at 37

Edited by BoltsFan937

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The worst kept secret out there is the Falcons trying to move up supposedly for a corner.  If Okudah goes 3 to the Lions then Henderson could be their target. They may have to get ahead of Carolina or Jacksonville which would make our pick a target for them. We’d be moving back quite a bit, but we’d also get a nice return on that trade. 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/20/2020 at 8:55 PM, BoltsFan937 said:

I can’t see Herbert going that high in this draft. To us or anyone. I really think he’s the guy that falls, that’s there at the end of round one, maybe someone trades back up for.  I don’t want to bash the kid, I think he has tools, but there’s enough question marks there to give teams pause with a pick that high.  I see him as this years Drew Lock.  Then again we’ve seen Trubisky, Ponder, Lynch and others go high so who knows.  
Jordan Love, when I watched his highlight tape I wanted to take him 1 overall.  The more you dig though, the more concerns you have.  He’s a day two prospect to me, I wouldn’t have a problem rolling the dice on him on Friday if he’s there, but definitely pass at 6. 

I think Tua is in play at 6 if he’s available and I think he will be.  Outside of the obvious health questions though, I wonder if he’s mobile enough for Anthony Lynn. I’ve always felt Lynn coveted a dual threat QB and do you really want Tua running around with his history?  We got rid of Rivers because he was a statue, if the goal is to make Tua a pocket passer to limit his exposure, what sense does that make?  I think it also may explain why we’ve been connected somewhat to Hurts, because of his mobility. 
Outside of QB and tackle, I can’t see us taking Brown or Simmons, there’s not an end worth the 6th pick so that leaves WR and corner.  Personally I’d love to get Jeudy in that spot and I think it makes some sense for reasons that Zappaz pointed out above.  Not necessarily the speed guy, but we could slide Keenan down in the slot.  It makes some sense to me and the need meets the value. I’d also say if we don’t go receiver at 6 (which I admit most likely won’t happen) then I think Aiyuk, Reagor or Hamlet would make a lot of sense at 37

I think Herbert is a guy that there's so much to unravel with him that you're going to get a wide range of evaluations. Some people are going to see him as the classic, tall athletic big arm QB prototype that failed over and over, and some are going to see him as a guy who got screwed by coaching/talent around him. He's had 4 playcallers in 4 years, almost all of whom are former RB and OL coaches, a complete lack of talent at WR, and the way the offense ran was about as bad a fit as you could get for his skillset.  You saw games like Colorado and Washington State where they actually let him open it up, and he looks great. Then you have games like Arizona state where it looked like they said "just don't do anything that loses us this game" all week. And there's so much that rests on your evaluation of what was situation and what was player flaw. I think he's gonna need to sit and watch for a bit, but if you can clean things up, I think you have such a huge upside in a Phillip Rivers type of way, where he's going to murder you pre-snap and with game prep.

I think the way that people are talking about "WE ONLY WANT A MOBILE QB" is a little over the top.  Lynn came up under Greg Roman and had influences by Payton/Haley, who's a notorious proponent of QB's who can win outside of the pocket. The way he said it himself was something along the lines of "its a rare skill to be able to consistently win in the pocket, and if you can't win in the pocket, you have to be able to win outside of it".  I don't think that's the necessity that you need a running QB, but I think he want's a MOBILE one, which is exactly what Tua is.  You look at Drew Brees as the model for him in that kind of offense, where he's winning out of the pocket, but they're not having him run much at all.  

But the talk about taking whatever QB you have later is a little ridiculous, or passing on them and trying to take them later. If you have your guy, and you don't want to take him 6 overall, then he's probably not a guy you're willing to hand your franchise to.  Go look up the hit rate on QB's taken in the 1st round after the 10th overall pick.  The hit rate is almost non-existant, it's just not worth taking a QB there.  Outside of Lamar Jackson, who went outside more because of how transcendent/controversial a player he was, to a team that really wasn't looking for a QB and jumped on talent over anything else. Big Ben, Cutler and Coulpepper are guys that went 11, so I'm just throwing that out as "basically the top 10". The other guys are Flacco and then you have to go all the way back to Pennington for guys who actually held down a starting spot for a while....Basically, if you decide that you're going to "wait on someone" he's not your guy, and there's no point in drafting them uness you're really forcing a QB.

And that brings me to Telesco, who I think has done an absolutely impeccable job, especially early, of not forcing things.  He has said all along that especially at QB, you have to continuously look, and if your guy is there you have to jump on him. Tyrod is a guy that Lynn really likes, and that gives us the opportunity to put QB on hold if we don't see a guy that jumps out as a franchise QB.  If Tua's there, I'm betting hes the pick. But It's entirely up to Telesco and the scouts as to whether they think Herbert or Love is a guy they're confident in and is "their guy".  The more I think about it, the more it seems that they'll let Tyrod play out, and the fact that there's a very good QB class, that also consists of mobile/athletic QB's that can win outside the pocket,  on the way helps too (though the same was said this time last year about this class), but if we do indeed pick a QB, I think they're very confident that he's their guy long term.

If it's not going to be QB, then I don't know where we go.  Thomas is probably the safest bet, if it's an OT, I'd bet its him (unless we want to get Wirfs who has elite OG potential too, and see who wins at LT between him and Pipkins). But who knows how they see Simmons or Okudah or even Derrick Brown.  With Linval/Harris it doesn't seem like they're jumping on either of those positions, and I really don't like the outlook of Simmons, because you have to look at this as a franchise player, and it's just so hard to pay the elite LB's and IDL's market Value and win long term, unlike with premium positions (you see how it came back to bite the Jags). But it's something you can do temporarily when you have a rookie contract at QB. There's just so many things to think about long term. If I'm taking a non QB there, I would want Thomas over everyone else other than maybe Okudah. But it's just so hard with all of the top players on the board being non-premium position guys.

Edited by Duffman57

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Yeah with Herbert it’s whether you believe the question marks are him or a product of poor/inconsistent coaching at Oregon.  That seems like a tough question to answer.  I don’t watch a lot of Oregon football, but was every previous OC there running a heavy screen offense or is that just what Cristobal felt comfortable running with Herbert? Did he not trust Herbert enough to open it up more downfield?  Did Herbert pass up open shots downfield for the check down because he’s tentative or that’s what the staff stressed? There’s question marks around his anticipation and touch, did he just not have many of those opportunities?  For us, I think a big question is, does his personality mesh with the LA market?  LA is a city of stars, Herbert comes off more like Flacco than Newton.  Can he handle all the media and is he a “face of the franchise” type of guy?  Kinda seems like his personality is more suited for a smaller market team like maybe Jacksonville?  I don’t know, he seems like a great kid and he absolutely has tons of raw talent. I wouldn’t be totally against it if he were the pick tomorrow and I think he’s getting way too much negative hype around his name. When you have the amount of tape out there he has, people tend to start pointing out the negative and forgetting about the positive, and he has plenty of positive too.  

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Prescott, Rodgers, Cousins, Brees, Brady, Bridgewater, Garoppolo, Wilson, Carr, Lock, Jackson. I left out Minshew and Tyrod Taylor and possibly whoever starts in NE who are projected starters as well.  Guys are all starters (and some very high level ones) all taken after the top of the draft.  Almost half the league there

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So while I still think the Dolphins get Tua so this is more of a hypothetical question... 

 

What number would Tua wear? Does Keenan give up 13?

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47 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Prescott, Rodgers, Cousins, Brees, Brady, Bridgewater, Garoppolo, Wilson, Carr, Lock, Jackson. I left out Minshew and Tyrod Taylor and possibly whoever starts in NE who are projected starters as well.  Guys are all starters (and some very high level ones) all taken after the top of the draft.  Almost half the league there

Rodgers was the one I left off/forgot about.  But yeah, over the span of 20 years, you have that many guys. And of those you listed at this point, pretty much 3-4 of them are repalcement level QB's, and 2 of them (Wilson/Jackson) are guys that the talent was just doubted because people have biases against certain traits, so unless you find a revolutionary type player (which isn't anyone in this draft), then you're basically left with Cousins, Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Prescott.  So since 96' you have 5 guys who aren't replacement level QB's, and even the guys that were really successful sat behind another good QB for 2-3 years before they started or did anything successfully. If you're hoping to hit on the 1 every 5 years that comes around, then good luck.  If you're taking one of those guys, you need to plan not to play them for at least 2 years, if not 3. And on top of that, that means that OVER HALF OF THE LEAGUE has starters that were picked in the top 10...

Basically unless you're willing to develop and wait on a guy (and we might have missed that chance), I don't see the value in taking a QB after the top 10.

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Don’t one of you guys Duffman or LBC have the inside plug on who we like with our pick?  Years past, one of you guys always posted which way we were leaning. I specifically remember someone nailing the Mike Williams pick in 17 and we were leaning Taven Bryan (until Derwin fell) in 18?

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4 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Don’t one of you guys Duffman or LBC have the inside plug on who we like with our pick?  Years past, one of you guys always posted which way we were leaning. I specifically remember someone nailing the Mike Williams pick in 17 and we were leaning Taven Bryan (until Derwin fell) in 18?

One of the guys we both talked to regularly was Kyle Posey who for a while had a connection with one of the guys in the war room. So it was a pretty unique look at the draft stuff. I’m sad he’s a niners writer now. He’s damn good. 

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Yeah I was sad when KP jumped ship. His reaction to Derwin falling to us in 18 was awesome haha. Speaking of, I'm eager to watch the Lightning Round Podcast live draft stream again. Was always fun getting their opinions and reactions during the draft. 

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6 hours ago, Duffman57 said:

One of the guys we both talked to regularly was Kyle Posey who for a while had a connection with one of the guys in the war room. So it was a pretty unique look at the draft stuff. I’m sad he’s a niners writer now. He’s damn good. 

Gotcha, that stinks, I was looking forward to seeing who we were interested in this year.  I remember those years, I wasn’t on Williams or Bryan at all,  so it was fun to get that insight.  

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3 hours ago, Zappaz said:

Yeah I was sad when KP jumped ship. His reaction to Derwin falling to us in 18 was awesome haha. Speaking of, I'm eager to watch the Lightning Round Podcast live draft stream again. Was always fun getting their opinions and reactions during the draft. 

The second KP left I was kind of out on them.  The only one that I really liked and thought was good was Michael.  The others are too overreactionary and negative for my liking, and I feel like they just made opinions that weren't as well formed and just ran with them and nobody could tell them otherwise.

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