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2020 Draft

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37 minutes ago, Mojibwe said:

I don’t understand the S over peoples jones. I think he will be legit. Then to take 2 wr’s later on?  I am not excited about a single pick from this draft.

Yeah I’m fairly disappointed in this one.  I’ll be honest, I wanted nothing to do with Herbert, so that pretty much took the air out for me on day one.  Then to trade up for a LB with questionable instincts and hasn’t been asked to cover in college, is a head scratcher for today’s NFL. Then we get a decent RB (I like Kelley) a kick returner, camp fodder at S and a undersized slow timed WR.

We never addressed the offensive or defensive line AGAIN, we didn’t get faster at the skill positions (a theme with everyone else in the division) and we left with a lot of question marks left on this team. I think we’re the 4th place team in this division and we’ll be drafting in the top ten again next year. Unless Herbert kills it and becomes a top 10-12QB in this league, we set ourselves back a few years this weekend  

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On April 24, 2020 at 1:35 PM, BoltsFan937 said:

Yeah I’m not gonna lie, I was straight up disappointed. This one could get some guys fired especially coming off last years draft.  Tillery looked terrible last season, Adderley never saw the field and the jury is out on Pipkins.  Back that up with Herbert and Murray and some of these guys need to hit.  Then add in the fact that Lock looked pretty decent in Denver and that makes two QBs within our own division we could have had and passed. An honest look tells me we very well could be last in the division again and drafting in the top 10.  
I hope I’m wrong I really do, but this pick feels forced to me. Feels like other picks in the past like English, Davis, Cason etc etc. I just don’t have a good feeling about it. 
Murray I think is a nice pick, but to move up is brutal in this draft and particularly when we only have our allotted 7 picks.  I feel like we’ve blown top of the draft picks for years and it’s frustrating.  I have to be honest, I actually love what every other team in our division is doing, I scratch my head when it comes to us though 

We gave a third to move back into the first. I don't think it was that brutal.

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Been watching a lot of Herbert film since the draft, and I'm really not a fan of that pick.

The guy really struggles in a lot of ways, and I'm scratching my head trying to think why someone would draft him this high.

The major problems I see with him is a clear lack of anticipation on his throws, and some really questionable accuracy. There's examples of both in all the tape I've watched and several times a game.

People talk about his arm talent, but the only thing I've noticed is he throws fastballs 90% of the time. and like I stated above a good bunch of them aren't even on target.

He's, at best, a developmental guy. Not a top 10 pick.

 

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4 hours ago, kramxel said:

Been watching a lot of Herbert film since the draft, and I'm really not a fan of that pick.

The guy really struggles in a lot of ways, and I'm scratching my head trying to think why someone would draft him this high.

The major problems I see with him is a clear lack of anticipation on his throws, and some really questionable accuracy. There's examples of both in all the tape I've watched and several times a game.

People talk about his arm talent, but the only thing I've noticed is he throws fastballs 90% of the time. and like I stated above a good bunch of them aren't even on target.

He's, at best, a developmental guy. Not a top 10 pick.

 

Probably liked his physical talents and work ethic. He also seemed like a highly intelligent guy who seemed to finally improve mechanically once he had a proper QB coach after the season was over. The Ducks also had issues in the coaching department (3 different coaches?) as well as in the talent department. I believe only two other offensive guys from Oregon were drafted (all in the third day).

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I've said it all along, and I've watched a LOT of Herbert.  But he's a guy that if you put the time in and let him develop, you're going to get a really good one. He's got a weird combo of terrible receivers, and zero consistency there (people were in and out of the lineup all year), terrible playcalling, and zero consistency there (had 4 different playcallers throughout the year).  His biggest problem is consistency, and it's hard, when there's zero consistency around him.  He's a guy that's going to thrive in structure, just based on his makeup and the way that it seems like he processes information.  You watch the Colorado game, and he shows the ability to throw with anticipation and throw guys open. Then he loses his 3 top receivers and it all goes away.  His best two receivers both played half the season.  He was just in a nighmare-ish situation. That said, his consistency and how he works through things needs to be coached up.  There's a lot of projection there.  But I love the rout that they're taking with him. Let him sit, and absolutely don't force him into anything.  That's something that Telesco said to him right away on the call.  "Be patient, we're going to sit and let you develop" or something along those lines.  He's got everything you want to develop, including the crazy smarts and intellect and the ability to process information, but he needs to learn the how and get more consistent at it. Because his coaching at Oregon was AWFUL. I've always said that he's the kind of guy, who isn't going to beat you out of structure like Rodgers/Mahomes, but he's a guy that's going to consistently win consistently presnap and at the line more like the previous generation of pocket passers. I think it's pretty easy to see him end up very much like Carson Wentz after sitting a year or two. I still he got "be conservative" beaten into his head to a fault by his OL head coach and RB coach playcaller.  You have to snap him out of that. 

But everything about this draft outside of Herbert screamed "win now mode" to me.  Moving up to get Murray just screamed "we're 1 piece away" on defense. I think they feel like they can win the same way as the 2010/2011 9ers won.  Decent QB play, but elite pass rushing and defense as a whole, on top of a really good running game. We already matched up with the best of the best on offense very well (Mahomes REALLY struggled against us), and on top of that, we took a lot of steps to address our shortcomings in Run D.  That kind of physical, athletic and super aggressive LB was a staple in all of Gus' (and Rich Smith's) defenses between Wagner, Telvin and Deion Jones. We got that guy, who's going to really free up a lot of things in the run game IMO.  That was the last piece we really needed on defense.  He's one of those guys who's gonna be better in coverage in the NFL than he was in college.  He's never going to be Fred Warner, but I think he can be a decent zone guy. 

Every guy has a particular role to play this year, and I don't think it came in the way that sacrifices the future either (we didn't buy ourselves out of future contracts).  Playing with a QB on a rookie/low end deal is going to be big for this team with all of the guys coming up for contract extensions. Kelley's going to come in and be a solid guy for a split backfield, Joe Reed is going to come in and be a return specialist and a spot player as a home run hitter on offense. Gilman is going to be a ST's specialist with future value as a Phillips type player.   KJ Hill can come in and be a reliable depth receiver like everyone wanted from Artavis Scott, and he has some PR value too. 

 

Also side note, but I actually played around with the idea of Gilman at CB.  Some teams asked him to play CB at the Senior Bowl.  Would be really interested to see what he does. He really fits the mold of a CB in our system and we love guys with real good 3 cone time and SS, who are physical and instinctive.  I would be interested if we don't have him playing some CB at the very least in the nickel. But he also could be a 1:1 replacement for Phillips. Either way, he's a guy who's really firey and supposedly a bigtime leader. He also loves to talk trash, so with everyone that hates on him, I would love to see him as a ST's leader and spot defensive player for a long time. I think that'll end up as a really good pick for us. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Did some early work looking into Josh Dunlop and Ryan Roberts.  Both are really interesting.

They're very much both lungers and can lose balance at times, but both of them showcase really good lateral agility and have really solid saquare power.  They're exactly the prototype guy that I expect from Campen.  Really good initial quickness and get out of thier stance quick for reach blocks and pass sets.  Both are smart with the awareness to pass off stunts and twists. 

Roberts especially is incredibly versatile. He's played games at both OG and OT spots in his college career, starting last year for FSU at RT, and taking over LT for the bowl game.  In' '18 Roberts played a REALLY good game against FSU and showed off his power and agility in pass pro, and actually held his own quite a few times vs Brian Burns (though like everyone else, Burns got the better of him a few times, it was a battle).  He's kind of lost in space, but he gets the job done at the LOS getting to reaches, . If they can reign him in and getting him taking better angles to the ball, then he can absolutely develop into a depth piece at OG/OT.  

Dunlop is more of a true OT, with more length and athleticism, but he's started games at LT, RG and RT, so he's another very versatile guy.  But I actually LOVE his game. There's some refinement to be had there, but I think he's got a legit shot at making this roster if he shows he can play OG. While UTSA got massacred vs Baylor, he really held his own asside from a few plays where he got overextended and bullrushed back into the QB.  What stands out to me with him is his combination of hands and feet. His feet put him in position, and then he'll fire his hands which are like vice grips.  Has the same kind of style that Campen teaches, where he actually shoots his hands outside at the shoulder/armpit and just locks guys in and mirrors with his feet. He played a hell of a game vs Lynch on Baylor who was a 4th rounder this year.  He's a guy who I'm really excited about, and I wouldn't be shocked if he's one to make the roster. I love what he brings to the table as a developmental player.  You see all the things Campen looks for, snap quickness, lateral agility/explosiveness and grip strength.  If I had to guess he's more likely than Roberts to make the team, but both have intriguing skillsets for the scheme. He's another one of those weird guys where he's a blindside RT with a lefty QB.

For a guy who has legit athletic testing thresholds and requirements, its interesting to see the guys he brought in since there isn't testing numbers to be had if you didn't go to the combine. 

Edited by Duffman57

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I think Wentz is a great comp for Herbert.  Athletic, big arm, inconsistent accuracy at times etc.  Obviously as I’ve stated, I was completely against this pick, but I’ve warmed up to it (really what choice do we have lol).  Sounds like we’re going to run some pistol and some concepts taken from Shanahan and Greg Roman with Baltimore.  If we do, I think that’s a great fit for Herbert.  Run some +1 concepts, RPO,s and QB designed runs and get Herbert on the move.  I think he has a chance to do well with that.  I think sometimes we (myself) get caught up in the predraft analysis on what guys can’t do (or haven’t shown) as opposed to what they can do. For instance with Isaiah Simmons, everyone’s draft darling, yeah does a lot of things well but I could make a highlight clip of teams running at him with great success and you would come away thinking he was day three prospect.  Same with Herbert, we can show missed throws and lack of touch misses but there’s plenty to like as well.  Telesco said it, ALL of these guys have strengths and weaknesses, we’re gonna have to work with Justin on his strenghts. Goff is the prime example, looked like a straight bust with Fisher, McVay came in and totally turned him around.  Could be the same for Herbert, get him with a consistent OC, in the right system, hopefully he can excel.  Sounds like he’s a hard worker, loves the game, smart, has the physical tools, a lot of things that can lead to success

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4 minutes ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think Wentz is a great comp for Herbert.  Athletic, big arm, inconsistent accuracy at times etc.  Obviously as I’ve stated, I was completely against this pick, but I’ve warmed up to it (really what choice do we have lol).  Sounds like we’re going to run some pistol and some concepts taken from Shanahan and Greg Roman with Baltimore.  If we do, I think that’s a great fit for Herbert.  Run some +1 concepts, RPO,s and QB designed runs and get Herbert on the move.  I think he has a chance to do well with that.  I think sometimes we (myself) get caught up in the predraft analysis on what guys can’t do (or haven’t shown) as opposed to what they can do. For instance with Isaiah Simmons, everyone’s draft darling, yeah does a lot of things well but I could make a highlight clip of teams running at him with great success and you would come away thinking he was day three prospect.  Same with Herbert, we can show missed throws and lack of touch misses but there’s plenty to like as well.  Telesco said it, ALL of these guys have strengths and weaknesses, we’re gonna have to work with Justin on his strenghts. Goff is the prime example, looked like a straight bust with Fisher, McVay came in and totally turned him around.  Could be the same for Herbert, get him with a consistent OC, in the right system, hopefully he can excel.  Sounds like he’s a hard worker, loves the game, smart, has the physical tools, a lot of things that can lead to success

I think people overstate "taking concepts from x offense". You guys have to remember that Lynn spent a lot of time learning under Roman and developing the offense with him for Tyrod in Buffalo. I think they have a very solid plan in place for him already which was a lot of what they succeeded with when they had him in Buffalo.  Roman is one of the best guys out there at designing a running game, and I think Campen will help with that. I also think that Herbert benefits from that same thing.  I could see them running a similar offense to what the 9ers ran in SF with Kaep. 

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On 4/27/2020 at 10:10 AM, Duffman57 said:

I think people overstate "taking concepts from x offense". You guys have to remember that Lynn spent a lot of time learning under Roman and developing the offense with him for Tyrod in Buffalo. I think they have a very solid plan in place for him already which was a lot of what they succeeded with when they had him in Buffalo.  Roman is one of the best guys out there at designing a running game, and I think Campen will help with that. I also think that Herbert benefits from that same thing.  I could see them running a similar offense to what the 9ers ran in SF with Kaep. 

Pretty sure Lynn said in the post-draft presser that they're going to run out of Pistol a good amount this year, which wasn't something they could do with Rivers considering Phil was... you know... not exactly mobile.

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15 hours ago, The LBC said:

Pretty sure Lynn said in the post-draft presser that they're going to run out of Pistol a good amount this year, which wasn't something they could do with Rivers considering Phil was... you know... not exactly mobile.

Yeah, which is something Roman uses a lot, with both the 9ers and the Bills with Tyrod there. I don't particularly think that it'll be a duplicate of that.  Also we ran more run pass options with Rivers than you would think, the run was just play action, and were real RPO's.

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Posted (edited)

Ducks fan here, wanted to chime in and give a little 411 about my man Justin Herbert.  He had some inconsistent problems but part of that is due to receiver issues and constant coaching changes.  Going to your team he has a lot of tools in place to contribute right away and help The Chargers win.  His mechanics need work but the stuff he has can't be taught; work and study ethics, a big arm, and athelticism.  

Herbert will make some amazing throws that will wow you at times but then miss some throws that will make you pull your hair out.  With time and proper coaching you will see the former more than the latter.  And the biggest hurdle may be playing directly under center instead of shotgun all the time.

I may be a bit biased but I think he will be a better pro QB than Tua and think you guys have a really talented prospect as your signal caller.

 

https://youtu.be/TeglTEHsM8w

https://youtu.be/w6AmK1bjoAQ

Edited by FosterTheSkins

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So this is going to sound really biased, but I went back and watched Andrew Luck, and while they have their differences, Luck and Herbert play REALLY similarly. They were both more "see it" throwers, and didn't really anticipate as much, but they both sort of broke down mechanically when plays didn't develop very well. Luck was better at the nuances of the game, and when things broke down, the biggest difference is that he trusted any one of his 3 NFL TE's to throw it up to.  Herbert didn't have anyone to do that with.  I would say Herbert is a more underdeveloped Luck. And basically not having a QB coach, and Luck having Pep/Shaw/Harbaugh (which is part of the reason I like the Pep hiring, being able to work with and develop relationships with that type of person/player is going to be really key) developing him through college is a significant source of that difference. Both are athletically gifted, and really smart, analytical football players. But with the rawness obviously comes the increased risk. I think Luck is the "good outcome" for Herbert, while Colin Kaepernick or a more athletic Joe Flacco is probably the down side on the outcome scale. I think that's a fairly reasonable range of outcomes, and the downside is enough to where you can win with him as a part of the offense if you build a good enough team around him, which is something I really like about him.  The downside is at a point where he may not WIN you a whole lot of games, but he will rarely lose you any games.

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I think that’s a pretty fair evaluation, Luck may be a little lofty, but there are some similarities there.  I don’t see any reason Herbert can’t be successful, I do think he needs to sit this year.  Herberts been a tough grade from Oregon’s offensive scheme to the players around him.  I’m not sure if the “see it” comes from lack of anticipation, trusting in his arm or if he’s slow to recognize/process what the defense is giving.  That’s one of the troubling things from the ASU game, they threw some different looks, heated him up a little and he had one of his worst games.  Credit him with settling down and having a better second half in that game.  
Ive watched more Herbert since the draft than I care to admit.  He misses some reads (checks it down), he’s inaccurate at times (I thought outside the hashes), has some Jeff George to him where everything is a fastball,  and it’s been mentioned that he seems to aim the ball at times.  That being said, he also has plenty of good tape as well where he makes some spectacular throws.  I’m excited for him to work with Pep,  be around pro level talent,  and learn a pro level offensive scheme.  If we work around his strengths, I don’t see any reason why he can’t be successful

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11 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think that’s a pretty fair evaluation, Luck may be a little lofty, but there are some similarities there.  I don’t see any reason Herbert can’t be successful, I do think he needs to sit this year.  Herberts been a tough grade from Oregon’s offensive scheme to the players around him.  I’m not sure if the “see it” comes from lack of anticipation, trusting in his arm or if he’s slow to recognize/process what the defense is giving.  That’s one of the troubling things from the ASU game, they threw some different looks, heated him up a little and he had one of his worst games.  Credit him with settling down and having a better second half in that game.  
Ive watched more Herbert since the draft than I care to admit.  He misses some reads (checks it down), he’s inaccurate at times (I thought outside the hashes), has some Jeff George to him where everything is a fastball,  and it’s been mentioned that he seems to aim the ball at times.  That being said, he also has plenty of good tape as well where he makes some spectacular throws.  I’m excited for him to work with Pep,  be around pro level talent,  and learn a pro level offensive scheme.  If we work around his strengths, I don’t see any reason why he can’t be successful

Yeah, that's why Luck is my "upside" comparison.  But the way they play, and their tape is actually really similar in terms of how they move and how they're footwork is. But yeah, Herbert's always been a though eval because of all of the factors that went into why he struggled.  There's just so much to unravel there. But I think it ultimately comes down to the fact that he HAS shown that he can anticipate, and has shown everything you want, and even strung it together for full games (Colorodo was as elite a game as you can find from a prospect), but just when he got rolling, things came to a halt and he had some UDFA looking games. Such a unique eval because of that. It's not like Trubisky where he was stuck behind a UDFA for 3 years that he couldn't beat out, but he also didn't develop like you'd expect a 4 year starter to.

But yeah, I think he's a very safe QB, and he doesn't really make a lot of bad mistakes, but at the same time, he'll miss plays that would go for touchdowns. A lot of people are going to freak out about him being all potential and not a QB worth a top 5-10 pick, but it's easy to envision him at least being a game manager, so like at the very worst case you're getting a guy who won't lose you games.  But the high end potential is all the way up there. 

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