2020 Draft

[BoltsFan937]

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51 minutes ago, Duffman57 said:

Yeah, that's why Luck is my "upside" comparison.  But the way they play, and their tape is actually really similar in terms of how they move and how they're footwork is. But yeah, Herbert's always been a though eval because of all of the factors that went into why he struggled.  There's just so much to unravel there. But I think it ultimately comes down to the fact that he HAS shown that he can anticipate, and has shown everything you want, and even strung it together for full games (Colorodo was as elite a game as you can find from a prospect), but just when he got rolling, things came to a halt and he had some UDFA looking games. Such a unique eval because of that. It's not like Trubisky where he was stuck behind a UDFA for 3 years that he couldn't beat out, but he also didn't develop like you'd expect a 4 year starter to.

But yeah, I think he's a very safe QB, and he doesn't really make a lot of bad mistakes, but at the same time, he'll miss plays that would go for touchdowns. A lot of people are going to freak out about him being all potential and not a QB worth a top 5-10 pick, but it's easy to envision him at least being a game manager, so like at the very worst case you're getting a guy who won't lose you games.  But the high end potential is all the way up there. 

I agree with all of that.  I actually think the Kaepernick comp is really good (minus the speed, Kap could blaze). And definitely potential to be better than that.  From a physical stand point, Herbert checks all the boxes no doubt. The unknown variable, as with most QB’s is gonna be how well he processes what defenses are giving him.  He’s obviously intelligent enough to do it, it’s just something we’re not gonna know until he puts some games under his belt.  It’s really hard to figure guys out, look at Burrow for example. Mediocre junior year, LSU brings in Brady, switch the system and it suits what Burrow does well and he explodes.  Happened with Goff as well with McVay after Fisher.  No reason Justin can’t do the same working in a system that plays to his strengths

[BoltsFan937]

I think we’ve analyzed Herbert to death, anyone care to talk about the other picks? I’ll be honest, Murray scares me a bit.  The athleticism and length are there all day, but his diagnosing could use some real work. He’s gonna be susceptible to misdirection at least early on in his career. He also gets swallowed up on blocks as well.  Correctable things but things that will hurt him at least early in his career. He does have Pro Bowl ceiling though if he puts it all together. The other picks, I just don’t see a lot of juice there. Josh Kelley seems like a league average back.  Reed and Gilman seem like depth chart/core special teamers to me. I do like Gilmans chances in that Adrian Phillips role which could get King traded.  I’m not sure Hill makes this team. He’s not gonna beat out Reed as a returner and I’m not sure if he can cover kicks. 

[Duffman57]

9 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think we’ve analyzed Herbert to death, anyone care to talk about the other picks? I’ll be honest, Murray scares me a bit.  The athleticism and length are there all day, but his diagnosing could use some real work. He’s gonna be susceptible to misdirection at least early on in his career. He also gets swallowed up on blocks as well.  Correctable things but things that will hurt him at least early in his career. He does have Pro Bowl ceiling though if he puts it all together. The other picks, I just don’t see a lot of juice there. Josh Kelley seems like a league average back.  Reed and Gilman seem like depth chart/core special teamers to me. I do like Gilmans chances in that Adrian Phillips role which could get King traded.  I’m not sure Hill makes this team. He’s not gonna beat out Reed as a returner and I’m not sure if he can cover kicks. 

Honestly I thought the Murray diagnosing stuff was overblown.  It was really 1 game where he struggled (the first matchup vs Baylor), and there were 3-4 of the exact same plays where he overran a gap (that I don't think was really his play to make).  Obviously its bad because it resulted in 2 TD's and a big 1st down but it seemed more situational and getting out schemed than anything else.  He was the weakside backer in all the plays, and the way they coached it was that the playside LB shoots his gap, and then the weakside backer drags over the top to kind of be a cleanup player.  It almost seemed like they told him "under no circumstances do you let anyone outside of you" because every time they ran that motion he was too wide and couldn't get back in time to make a play (it didn't help that the playside LB got pinned and made a huge gap he needed to tackle the RB in without allowing a yard). But outside of that game, I haven't had a single issue with his diagnostic ability.  The only other issue is that sometimes he shoots a wrong gap, or tries to undercut a blocker and doesn't get to the play in time.

But I saw someone that said it perectly.  He's a perfect Will LB, if you have a Mike that can "clean up the trash" for you.  If you're going to let him run wild, you better have a sound player that can fix some of the over-aggressive plays he makes, and I think Perryman/White/Tranquil are perfect for that job.  None of them are outstanding as playmakers, but they're absolutely great at assignment football.

Josh Kelley to me, seems like that guy that's going to be a 4-5 YPC back, that's extremely dependable.  What makes him interesting is how efficient he is, and the fact that he has home run speed. He's going to break some big plays just off reading the right gap and going. He's got a little bit of Alfred Morris in him to me.  If we can get him just reading the right gap and getting upfield, I think he's going to be really solid. 

I'm very interested in Reed. I think he can be a really good offensive weapon for us, and he's more of a deep threat than people give him credit for. 

I also liked the Alohi Gilman pick.  He's just that pure try-hard, classic navy guy.  He's got more athleticism than people give him credit for, but his game is all about the "want to". I think he fits in perfectly to the gap that Phillips left, and could even play some CB down the road (nickel/dime), since some teams asked him to do that last year.  He fits right into the versatile S mold that we love. It's gonna be fun to see what we do on defense this year. So many players that can do so many things. 

In terms of Hill, I think he does, more because of lack of depth than anything.  I think he's just that typical, dependable receiver that's going to get 3-5 looks a game. He's not going to have to play ST's, but I think he's got a shot at PR duties. I think he ends up being what everyone wanted Artavis Scott to be.  Just a no nonsense 4th receiver. 

[Duffman57]

21 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I 

I agree with all of that.  I actually think the Kaepernick comp is really good (minus the speed, Kap could blaze). And definitely potential to be better than that.  From a physical stand point, Herbert checks all the boxes no doubt. The unknown variable, as with most QB’s is gonna be how well he processes what defenses are giving him.  He’s obviously intelligent enough to do it, it’s just something we’re not gonna know until he puts some games under his belt.  It’s really hard to figure guys out, look at Burrow for example. Mediocre junior year, LSU brings in Brady, switch the system and it suits what Burrow does well and he explodes.  Happened with Goff as well with McVay after Fisher.  No reason Justin can’t do the same working in a system that plays to his strengths

Herbert and Kaep ran almost the exact same 40.  Just sayin. 

[BoltsFan937]

2 hours ago, Duffman57 said:

Herbert and Kaep ran almost the exact same 40.  Just sayin. 

I didn’t know that, was strictly going off of remembering some of the runs Kap used to break off (against GB in the playoffs particularly). Seemed like he was flying, no slight to Herbert, but it seemed like a different gear

[BoltsFan937]

12 hours ago, Duffman57 said:

Herbert and Kaep ran almost the exact same 40.  Just sayin. 

Because I truly have no life, I went back and watched the Kapernick combine on YouTube. Kap ran an official 4.53 (Herbert had a 4.71 & 4.69 solid times) but it also notes that Kapernick was not 100% during the drills. Not sure what the injury was though 

[Duffman57]

12 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Because I truly have no life, I went back and watched the Kapernick combine on YouTube. Kap ran an official 4.53 (Herbert had a 4.71 & 4.69 solid times) but it also notes that Kapernick was not 100% during the drills. Not sure what the injury was though 

http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=66869&DraftYear=2011

 

I'm pretty sure the official was 4.63 and the unofficial was 4.53. But either way, I do think Kaep is a little faster, but not significantly.  I still think Luck is the best comp for Herbert, very similar athleticism.

[BoltsFan937]

Deshaun Watson, that’s the guy I think Herbert plays like the most. Went back and watched a couple Clemson games from ‘16 and ‘17 and I saw a lot of similarities. Heck even the offenses were somewhat similar with Clemson running their fair share of screens. I thought both have similar strengths in athleticism and arm talent but have accuracy issues at times (particularly low thrown balls and balls behind receivers), I think both struggle somewhat with balls thrown outside the hashes or toward the boundary, a lot of line drive fast balls and not a whole lot of touch passes etc.  looked very similar to me