Fromm is at BEST a 5th round pick! (and other QB thoughts)

[ScoDucks823]

Mostly a lurker on here, but I continue to see people talk about Fromm as the 3rd best QB/ mid round prospect. I think this is ridiculous.

I really can't see much of a difference between him and Aaron Murray. Does he have strengths? Yes: he's clearly a great locker room guy and is generally accurate on short routes, but this accuracy decreases dramatically on intermediate routes (especially to the sideline) and he is completely incapable of pushing it downfield. 

His absolute peak is as a solid backup, but I honestly think it's more likely he ends up in the XFL (if it still stands) within a few years. Being a great locker room guy isn't enough to keep you around the league long term. He's much more likely to be the next Kirk Herbstreit than he is the next Drew Brees (I honestly can't believe there are people that think this is a legit comparison).

I'm an Oregon fan/ alum, but not a huge Herbert guy. Still, I think he's being underrated by some due to the lack of solid receivers he had at oregon. I think a lot of his "inaccuracy" and (clear) indecision was due to receivers not running the right routes/ being in the right spots. Anyone putting Fromm over him clearly has not watched the film. Also, I'm a med student and Tua's injury should TERRIFY any evaluator. His medical re-checks on the hip have been positive, but that history of soft tissue injuries isn't going to go away. I'd be shocked if his hip was not arthritic, a la Gurley's knees, within a few years, and it seems more likely than not that he will struggle to finish most seasons. 

Burrow, to me, is a no-brainer. Obviously, the physical skills aren't all that "imposing" but that's not what wins at the QB position. His anticipation, movement in the phone booth, and ability to win off-script while still showing incredible ball placement is next level. Sure, he didn't have great production prior to this year, but he was still known within the LSU team as a leader and one of the toughest competitors on the team. I see a more athletic Tom Brady (not saying he will have the same success, but he has that same competitive demeanor and incredible accuracy with enough arm strength).

[BayRaider]

Fromm will go in the 3rd to the Colts or Patriots in my opinion. Probably the Colts at Pick 75. He’s a great insurance plan for Rivers. You really don’t need a strong arm for that offense. 

[ScoDucks823]

20 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Fromm will go in the 3rd to the Colts or Patriots in my opinion. Probably the Colts at Pick 75. He’s a great insurance plan for Rivers. You really don’t need a strong arm for that offense. 

It's not even that I don't think he has a strong arm, it seems to me like he doesn't even have the arm to make all the NFL throws. Teddy Brdigewater doesn't have a strong arm but he can make most if not all the throws. I think Fromm's arm is notably weaker than Teddy's. I honestly think teams won't even view him as an insurance policy/ quarterback of the future. he's a pure backup at the next level, no starter potential

[Tugboat]

10 hours ago, ScoDucks823 said:

It's not even that I don't think he has a strong arm, it seems to me like he doesn't even have the arm to make all the NFL throws. Teddy Brdigewater doesn't have a strong arm but he can make most if not all the throws. I think Fromm's arm is notably weaker than Teddy's. I honestly think teams won't even view him as an insurance policy/ quarterback of the future. he's a pure backup at the next level, no starter potential

I think Fromm's season pretty well put down any notions that he'd be a "QB of the Future" for anyone as a prospect...but teams do still quite like to have themselves a solid and safe game managing, ball distributing Backup QB on a bargain rookie deal for a few years.  If there's even a hint of upside like there is with Fromm...teams will often draft that guy in the 3rd or 4th round.

[ScoDucks823]

11 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I think Fromm's season pretty well put down any notions that he'd be a "QB of the Future" for anyone as a prospect...but teams do still quite like to have themselves a solid and safe game managing, ball distributing Backup QB on a bargain rookie deal for a few years.  If there's even a hint of upside like there is with Fromm...teams will often draft that guy in the 3rd or 4th round.

I don't disagree with the premise that teams will take a guy with a hint of upside in the 3rd or 4th. My disagreement is that Fromm is the archetype that fits into that. Looking at the history of quarterbacks drafted in the mid rounds (considering 5th the cutoff for late, as the beginning of day 3), and those guys typically were missing 1 trait physical trait (Finley arm strength, wilson height, Mallet more missing that whole "not doing cocaine" thing, etc.) and could be coached up around the rest. 

The guys taken in the 5th and later more closely line up with Fromm's profile: leader types who will fit in great in the locker room, not completely screw you over when they're put in the game due to injury, but severely lacking on the physical side. Late round guys are typically either that or total flyers.

Fromm's potential is nothing more than a great backup. He doesn't have the absurd accuracy and pocket mobility of Burrow to make up for his lack of arm strength, can't make plays with his feat, and really (outside of his freshman year) hasn't elevated the play of those around him. Honestly, hope I'm wrong because Fromm was the most likeable guy on QB1 on Netflix (based on what I saw there, no surprise Tate Martell is where he is now) and a guy that's hard not to root for. 

[Chrissooner49er]

I think he is worth a 3rd, perhaps a very low 2nd round pick.

[Tugboat]

8 hours ago, ScoDucks823 said:

I don't disagree with the premise that teams will take a guy with a hint of upside in the 3rd or 4th. My disagreement is that Fromm is the archetype that fits into that. Looking at the history of quarterbacks drafted in the mid rounds (considering 5th the cutoff for late, as the beginning of day 3), and those guys typically were missing 1 trait physical trait (Finley arm strength, wilson height, Mallet more missing that whole "not doing cocaine" thing, etc.) and could be coached up around the rest. 

The guys taken in the 5th and later more closely line up with Fromm's profile: leader types who will fit in great in the locker room, not completely screw you over when they're put in the game due to injury, but severely lacking on the physical side. Late round guys are typically either that or total flyers.

Fromm's potential is nothing more than a great backup. He doesn't have the absurd accuracy and pocket mobility of Burrow to make up for his lack of arm strength, can't make plays with his feat, and really (outside of his freshman year) hasn't elevated the play of those around him. Honestly, hope I'm wrong because Fromm was the most likeable guy on QB1 on Netflix (based on what I saw there, no surprise Tate Martell is where he is now) and a guy that's hard not to root for. 

I mean...i have no idea where Fromm will actually end up going...but nowhere in that 3-5 range would surprise me.  Fromm has a bit of that Colt McCoy magic to him, in the big games he's been in and the apparent leadership and intangibles.  Teams are no stranger to burning 3rd or 4th round picks on guys like that, who they think can be a solid and cheap long-term backup for them, and a great teammate.  Sometimes those guys surprise at the next level.

 

By the time you're into the 3rd or 4th round and on...you're pretty much talking about two types of prospects at QB.  The "toolsy projects with serious issues"...and the "no tools, smart savvy backup prototypes".  Fromm is obviously in the latter bucket...but some teams in certain situations, end up prioritizing those sort of attributes over raw tools as mid-round QB project.

[Chrissooner49er]

On 3/29/2020 at 12:24 AM, Tugboat said:

I mean...i have no idea where Fromm will actually end up going...but nowhere in that 3-5 range would surprise me.  Fromm has a bit of that Colt McCoy magic to him, in the big games he's been in and the apparent leadership and intangibles.  Teams are no stranger to burning 3rd or 4th round picks on guys like that, who they think can be a solid and cheap long-term backup for them, and a great teammate.  Sometimes those guys surprise at the next level.

 

By the time you're into the 3rd or 4th round and on...you're pretty much talking about two types of prospects at QB.  The "toolsy projects with serious issues"...and the "no tools, smart savvy backup prototypes".  Fromm is obviously in the latter bucket...but some teams in certain situations, end up prioritizing those sort of attributes over raw tools as mid-round QB project.

I think he has more potential than Colt McCoy.

[THE DUKE]

I wouldn't touch him before day 3, which I've said since last summer.  5th round?  Sure, maybe mid to late 4th as a guy you can develop as a long term backup.

[MikeT14]

38 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I wouldn't touch him before day 3, which I've said since last summer.  5th round?  Sure, maybe mid to late 4th as a guy you can develop as a long term backup.

I am not very high on Fromm either. That said, here are other QBs that went in round 3-4 in the past 5 years: Will Grier,  Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Josh Dobbs (lol), Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty.

Now, avoiding hindsight for what it is, I think I would have taken Fromm over most of these guys from how I felt about them. Exceptions would have included Grier, Rudolph, Cook. That's probably it. 

[THE DUKE]

29 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I am not very high on Fromm either. That said, here are other QBs that went in round 3-4 in the past 5 years: Will Grier,  Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Josh Dobbs (lol), Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty.

Now, avoiding hindsight for what it is, I think I would have taken Fromm over most of these guys from how I felt about them. Exceptions would have included Grier, Rudolph, Cook. That's probably it. 

I don't know, I think Fromm fits right in with that group for the most part.  I certainly don't think he is going to be Dak.

Edited March 30, 2020 by THE DUKE

[ScoDucks823]

34 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I am not very high on Fromm either. That said, here are other QBs that went in round 3-4 in the past 5 years: Will Grier,  Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Josh Dobbs (lol), Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty.

Now, avoiding hindsight for what it is, I think I would have taken Fromm over most of these guys from how I felt about them. Exceptions would have included Grier, Rudolph, Cook. That's probably it. 

Even among that list, only Beathard and Kessler can really be pointed to as guys that are as physically limited as Fromm (maybe Finley). I think the only reason Fromm goes above the 5th is because of the total lack of QBs after Herbert/Love in this draft. Guys like Matt Miller (who seems to basically just go based on what draft twitter says) have him as a 2nd round talent and that just seems silly to me.

I just think it's hard to justify taking a guy in the 3rd-4th round who's top potential outcome is a career backup when you should be building out the rest of your roster with those valuable picks

That being said, Fromm may be safer than many of these guys. But, I think if you're going to take a QB in these mid rounds you should be at least taking a swing at a guy with starter POTENTIAL (Jones showed brief flashes, Lauletta was the small school darling, Brissett and Mason were at least big strong dudes, Stidham showed potential at Baylor/ early at Auburn). Fromm is never going to be a difference maker, but the lineman/DB/WR/RB you get at this point in the draft can be a solid contributor for your team for at least their rookie deal

Edited March 30, 2020 by ScoDucks823
Adding more info

[MikeT14]

13 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I don't know, I think Fromm fits right in with that group for the most part.  I certainly don't think he is going to be Dak.

My point was that we didn't know Dak was going to be Dak. Err, I won't say we, I don't know personally where you saw him, but the consensus seemed to be Dak wasn't going to be where he is now. I am trying to look at it from where they stood draft day. Fromm is probably eyed better than most of that list. 

12 minutes ago, ScoDucks823 said:

Even among that list, only Beathard and Kessler can really be pointed to as guys that are as physically limited as Fromm (maybe Finley). I think the only reason Fromm goes above the 5th is because of the total lack of QBs after Herbert/Love in this draft. Guys like Matt Miller (who seems to basically just go based on what draft twitter says) have him as a 2nd round talent and that just seems silly to me.

I just think it's hard to justify taking a guy in the 3rd-4th round who's top potential outcome is a career backup when you should be building out the rest of your roster with those valuable picks

The physically limited standpoint is a far comparison. I think I'm just generalizing from the overall as a prospect. 

[ScoDucks823]

On 3/28/2020 at 10:24 PM, Tugboat said:

I mean...i have no idea where Fromm will actually end up going...but nowhere in that 3-5 range would surprise me.  Fromm has a bit of that Colt McCoy magic to him, in the big games he's been in and the apparent leadership and intangibles.  Teams are no stranger to burning 3rd or 4th round picks on guys like that, who they think can be a solid and cheap long-term backup for them, and a great teammate.  Sometimes those guys surprise at the next level.

 

By the time you're into the 3rd or 4th round and on...you're pretty much talking about two types of prospects at QB.  The "toolsy projects with serious issues"...and the "no tools, smart savvy backup prototypes".  Fromm is obviously in the latter bucket...but some teams in certain situations, end up prioritizing those sort of attributes over raw tools as mid-round QB project.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying here, I think it may just be more of a philosophical difference. At this point in the draft I think you're much better off building up the rest of your team than you are taking a guy that is going to be a backup his whole career. McCoy seems like a solid comparison but personally, I think he had a bit more of that "magic" and was more accurate on intermediate throws - he's really the absolute best case scenario for Fromm in my mind, probably even a bit better than I can see Fromm being. Only justification I can think of to take him before the 5th is if you're loaded up on picks in the mid rounds so you can afford to throw one at a backup QB. 

[THE DUKE]

12 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

My point was that we didn't know Dak was going to be Dak. Err, I won't say we, I don't know personally where you saw him, but the consensus seemed to be Dak wasn't going to be where he is now. I am trying to look at it from where they stood draft day. Fromm is probably eyed better than most of that list. 

The physically limited standpoint is a far comparison. I think I'm just generalizing from the overall as a prospect. 

I knew Dak had the physical tools, what I underestimated was his accuracy and poise.  Even so, I'd say he's a fringe top 10 QB, not too far off from Andy Dalton at his peak.  Andy Dalton 2015 before he got hurt was a potential MVP candidate and Dak is similar.  If everything is perfect around him, you can win with him, but he isn't going to elevate a team to a super bowl that isn't a complete team.