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Packers 2018 Mock Offseason


ChaRisMa

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Gotta get one of these out of my system even though the major perceived needs on this team will be quite different by seasons end.

Scenario: 13-3 Super Bowl win over Denver, leading many to proclaim Rodgers did what Favre could not.

Re-Ups

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Davante Adams, WR, Age 26. 4 Years, 44 Million. 17 Million Guaranteed.

~ Future #1 as Jordy fades. Not a Julio but a worthy #1.

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Corey Linsley, C, Age 27. 4 Years, 28 Million. 9 Million Guaranteed.

~ Keep some continuity on the OL that will see some changes.

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Jeff Janis, WR, Age 27. 1 Year, 2.4 Million. 750K Guaranteed.

~ Special Teamer chooses his familiar hunting area over other small offers with hopes for more PT.

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Brett Goode, LS, Age 33. 1 Year, 1 Million. No Guarantees.

~ I don't understand why we tried to go a different route this year.

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Quinton Dial, DL, Age 28. 2 Years, 3 Million. 400K Guaranteed.

~ Dial is already making his way into the rotation, and his run defense warrants a spot in the rotation.

No Thanks

Morgan Burnett, S, Age 29.

~ Going to go with Josh Jones, the better physical specimen, with Brice also looking to kill people.

Davon House, CB, Age 29.

~ Going to go younger. Kevin King was drafted for this job. House was a nice stop gap.

Jahri Evans, G, Age 35.

~ Good stop-gap, but we can get a younger guy here as well.

Ahmad Brooks, OLB, Age 34.

~ Not sure yet what we have with him, but we need to get a young guy here as well.

Richard Rodgers, TE, Age 27.

~ Sure handed, but no other starter qualities. Best off somewhere with more opportunity.

Don Barclay, OL, Age 29.

~ Nope.

Demetri Goodson, CB, Age 29.

~ A nice late round shot that never got good enough for more than ST duties.

Draft

GREEN BAY TRADES 1.32, QB Brett Hundley,  and 3.99 (Lang Compensatory) to Arizona in exchange for 1.17 with which they select...

 

1.17 Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville. 5'11" 195 LBS. 4.4 Forty.

~ Injuries have stunted the All-American's season, but he's a great player. He is terrific in coverage. He will blow up WR screens and make plays around the LOS. He'd immediately be an upgrade as a returner as well.

2.64 Tyquan Lewis, EDGE, Ohio St. 6'4" 260 LBS. 4.8 Forty.

~ Lewis is going to be underrated by the looks of it. People will look at his body type and assume he can't bend the edge. But he can, and when he does, he has the strength to pull the QB down. That same strength also shows in the run game as well. Reminded me of Mike Neal with better bend. 


3.96 Luke Falk, QB, Washington St. 6'4" 210 LBS. 4.8 Forty.

~ Haven't looked at him hard, but he can throw and he takes care of the ball. Plan is to develop and trade, but if Rodgers retires before 2021, we'd have a fully developed MM guy.

4.131 Mason Cole, OL, Michigan. 6'4" 305 LBS. Fat Guy Forty.

~ Interior OL Swing Man to backstop 2-3 positions and compete for a starting job. 

 5. DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Penn St. 6'1" 206 LBS. 4.5 Forty.

~ Quite productive possession guy. Was hoping to go WR earlier, but I don't see the value of a third round WR being much better than a fifth round WR. So we'll reload in 2019 if no one emerges.

 

6. Brandon Facyson, CB, Virginia Tech. 6'2" 189 LBS. 4.5 Forty.

~ He's a rSR thanks to injuries, which have plagued him. But he has tremendous size and character. 

6. (Hyde Compensatory) Marcus Baugh, TE, Ohio St. 6'5" 250 LBS. 4.8 Forty.

~ Depth/competition.

7. Justin Jackson, RB, Northwestern. 5'11" 205 LBS. 4.5 Forty.

~ Liked this kid as a runner for a while now.

Post-Draft Free Agency

Eddie Lacy, RB, Age 27. 1 Year, 1.1 Million, 100k Guaranteed.

~ Lacy looks like he's going to be one and done in Seattle, where his role is getting smaller by the day, and I can't see him being a hot item on the open market if his season continues the way it has. I'd love to give him reps as a 2nd/3rd RB where he could potentially be a late game wrecking ball. I don't trust Montgomery to stay healthy a full season.

Connor Barwin, OLB, Age 31. 2 years, 2.4 Million. 400k Guaranteed.

~ A Plan C veteran to backstop the depth at OLB.

Depth Chart

Rodgers/Falk

Montgomery/Lacy/Williams/Jones/Ripkowski

Nelson/Adams/Cobb/Janis/Hamilton/Davis/Yancey

Bennett/Kendricks/Baugh

Bakhtiari/Taylor/Linsley/Murphy/Bulaga/Spriggs/McCray/Cole/Amichia

Daniels/Clark/Lowry/Adams/Dial

Matthews/Martinez/Ryan/Perry/Lewis/Barwin/Thomas/Fackrell

King/Alexander/Randall/Rollins/Hawkins/Facyson/Pipkins

Clinton-Dix/Jones/Brice/Evans

Crosby/Vogel/Goode

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Philosophically speaking I really hope we don't have to go CB again. I think this team has fallen behind the chains so to speak with some weaker draft classes lately. DL has eaten up a lot of picks as well. For years it seemed like we had some very smooth transitions with guys waiting in the wings. I think we really need TT to nail a draft soon. 

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Excellent as always ChaRisMa

I have a question about Burnett - many here have commented on the rarity of a 3rd deal from Thompson. And he's 29

But does the equation change IF you look at Burnett not as a Safety, but rather as an ILB ? He's the QB of the defense and neither Jones, nor Brice, nor Evans have the experience to handle that role just yet. With the Packers subbing other guys at ILB, you kind of need one player to wear the green dot and be on the field most of the time. GB is loaded at Safety, ILB is a different story. Just wondering if the position switch changes anybody's opinion about giving Burnett another contract. Lots of ways to structure it so he gets another bite at the apple before he retires-  and doesn't commit GB to Burnett beyond 2019.

We haven't seen Jones perform yet, just a little uneasy about dumping Burnett before GB is sure they've got a viable replacement on the roster

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Good work @ChaRisMa.  Was wondering when we'd get our first mock.

I still think Davon House re-signing seems likely.  Something in terms of a 3 year deal makes sense for both sides.  And not sure they want to go into the 2018 season with question marks at corner, unless Randall/Rollins/King really turn it around.

Honestly haven't looked too much into prospects.

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2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Excellent as always ChaRisMa

I have a question about Burnett - many here have commented on the rarity of a 3rd deal from Thompson. And he's 29

But does the equation change IF you look at Burnett not as a Safety, but rather as an ILB ? He's the QB of the defense and neither Jones, nor Brice, nor Evans have the experience to handle that role just yet. With the Packers subbing other guys at ILB, you kind of need one player to wear the green dot and be on the field most of the time. GB is loaded at Safety, ILB is a different story. Just wondering if the position switch changes anybody's opinion about giving Burnett another contract. Lots of ways to structure it so he gets another bite at the apple before he retires-  and doesn't commit GB to Burnett beyond 2019.

We haven't seen Jones perform yet, just a little uneasy about dumping Burnett before GB is sure they've got a viable replacement on the roster

Few reasons for moving on from Burnett. First, every year it seems like the coaches feel better about replacing an important piece of the puzzle than we do. So while I'm not confident in Jones yet, drafting him was a pretty big indicator that could be happening. Second, I'm not sure we aren't giving Burnett more credit than he deserves for being the communicator and therefore a leader. He doesn't appear to get others fired up around him and to be quite frank, he's been in charge of communicating and leading some lousy freaking defenses. My final reason is related to those lousy defenses; at some point we have to try different players than what we've had since 2010. Do I blame the loss of Nick Collins for setting the defense back for 4-5 years? Yeah, I do. But we still have to look at the pieces we have had for all of the time since we lost Collins and ask ourselves if replacing them is a chance we wanna take because the only two players who we haven't replaced while trying to fix the defense are Burnett and Matthews. At some point, you replace a part you thought was good and it makes everything else run perfectly fine.

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2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I have a question about Burnett - many here have commented on the rarity of a 3rd deal from Thompson. And he's 29

But does the equation change IF you look at Burnett not as a Safety, but rather as an ILB ? He's the QB of the defense and neither Jones, nor Brice, nor Evans have the experience to handle that role just yet. With the Packers subbing other guys at ILB, you kind of need one player to wear the green dot and be on the field most of the time. GB is loaded at Safety, ILB is a different story. Just wondering if the position switch changes anybody's opinion about giving Burnett another contract. Lots of ways to structure it so he gets another bite at the apple before he retires-  and doesn't commit GB to Burnett beyond 2019.

We haven't seen Jones perform yet, just a little uneasy about dumping Burnett before GB is sure they've got a viable replacement on the roster

For me, it really doesn't change anything.  You're still looking at a player who will be getting their 3rd contract.  And as I've mentioned, the list of players who have gotten 3rd contracts is pretty short.  Now, if he's interested in a 3 year deal maybe that changes things.  Given that Micah Hyde managed to land a 5 year, $30.5M deal from the Bills, if his agent can't get him a deal north of that then he needs to fire his agent.  At the very least, I'd anticipate a 4 year, $32M deal minimum coming Burnett's way and quite frankly that's too much for Ted's willingness to do IMO.

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2 hours ago, cannondale said:

Philosophically speaking I really hope we don't have to go CB again. I think this team has fallen behind the chains so to speak with some weaker draft classes lately. DL has eaten up a lot of picks as well. For years it seemed like we had some very smooth transitions with guys waiting in the wings. I think we really need TT to nail a draft soon. 

Until we have a Collins/Woodson/Tramon/Shields caliber set I'm going back to that well. The Defenses that dominate have strong fronts, pass rush, and back ends. We are average in all those areas. I think Daniels/Clark/Adams can get there. I don't see anyone other than Haha, Perry, possibly King, possibly Randall, and possibly a very tail end of his career Matthews being on a Defense that shuts a high powered Offense like Atlanta down.

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19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Good work @ChaRisMa.  Was wondering when we'd get our first mock.

I still think Davon House re-signing seems likely.  Something in terms of a 3 year deal makes sense for both sides.  And not sure they want to go into the 2018 season with question marks at corner, unless Randall/Rollins/King really turn it around.

Honestly haven't looked too much into prospects.

House is still a huge Wildcard for me. I think he has brought stability to a young, unstable group. But then I also see him lose contain on that long run by Coleman and I wonder if we are wasting reps on a guy that will occasionally blow it for us.

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16 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Until we have a Collins/Woodson/Tramon/Shields caliber set I'm going back to that well. The Defenses that dominate have strong fronts, pass rush, and back ends. We are average in all those areas. I think Daniels/Clark/Adams can get there. I don't see anyone other than Haha, Perry, possibly King, possibly Randall, and possibly a very tail end of his career Matthews being on a Defense that shuts a high powered Offense like Atlanta down.

I can't argue that, but that doesn't mean I like it. LIS falling behind the chains will sooner or later make you pay.

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3 hours ago, cannondale said:

Philosophically speaking I really hope we don't have to go CB again. I think this team has fallen behind the chains so to speak with some weaker draft classes lately. DL has eaten up a lot of picks as well. For years it seemed like we had some very smooth transitions with guys waiting in the wings. I think we really need TT to nail a draft soon. 

Honestly, there's enough draft history that indicates that there is a VERY high chance the Packers are drafting a defensive player with their first pick.  With the exception of Aaron Rodgers (which QB value trumps all), Ted Thompson has only drafted one offensive position in the first round, which was offensive tackle when he took Bryan Bulaga in 2010 and Derek Sherrod in 2011.  At this point, we have our bookend tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga and depth with Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy.  Offense is almost certainly an unlikely way the Packers to go in the first round.

Given how much the Packers haven't invested in their ILB position, it's probably unlikely they go that way in 2018.  They've gone DL several times.  And with their signing of Ahmad Brooks after the struggles of Kyler Fackrell in camp/pre-season, you'd have to imagine that they're aware of their issues there.  CB/EDGE seems to be the two most likely positions, but you can't rule out DL.  Probably comes down to how Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry play this season. 

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3 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

House is still a huge Wildcard for me. I think he has brought stability to a young, unstable group. But then I also see him lose contain on that long run by Coleman and I wonder if we are wasting reps on a guy that will occasionally blow it for us.

I can't speak for the long run by Coleman, but he's our best corner right now.  Will that change by the end of the season?  Possibly, but right now the thought of going into the 2018 season with King/Alexander/Rollins/Randall does't really inspire any confidence or even any level of comfort.

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6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I can't speak for the long run by Coleman, but he's our best corner right now.  Will that change by the end of the season?  Possibly, but right now the thought of going into the 2018 season with King/Alexander/Rollins/Randall does't really inspire any confidence or even any level of comfort.

Man this new forum is sweet. Love that I can pop this up like this. Not a good look for House here. But it's one play, and we're only two weeks in. Just an example of the things that make me question him long term. I don't want to waste another year of reps on 29 year old Davon House if he's topped out and we see more of this. Rather get Alexander, who is Pro Ready, even if it requires trading up to do so, and watch him grow.

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@ChaRisMa Thanks for putting this together.   Hit on the 2 likely top areas in CB and Edge.  Dealing Hundley necessitates the back up QB selection.  

Back portion is depth and competition with the hope you hit on a starter in a few years.

 

Know very little about any of the 2018 prospects currently.

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I very much think that Hundley to Arizona is in the cards.  (Get that pun?)  :)

Love the mock off-season.  I too think Burnett is gone.  Expensive.

I think the club re-signs House, though.  And I think that they do draft a corner high.  Also guessing that they re-up Brooks and end up drafting a WR higher than you have here.

But, great work up, and a very enjoyable read!

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