soulman Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Where Does the Bears Roster Stand Today? Johnathan Wood | April 1st, 2020 https://dabearsblog.com/2020/taking-stock-of-the-bears-current-roster The free agency dust has mostly settled, so let’s take a minute before attention shifts to the draft to evaluate where the Bears’ roster currently stands. Taking stock of who they have will help identify the largest remaining needs for the draft (and small free agent moves that can still be made). The Roster The table below is my best guess at Chicago’s depth chart right now. A few quick notes: Don’t worry too much about who’s listed as starter/2nd string (especially Foles/Trubisky and Burton/Graham). That’s just my best guess at who I think is better if everybody is healthy. I included players who have not officially been announced, and there’s always a slim chance something could fall through with one of them. This includes Isaiah Irving, and Robert Quinn (and honestly maybe more that I didn’t realize). The Financial Situation We don’t actually know Chicago’s exact cap situation right now because of Nick Foles. Adam Schefter reported the Bears and Foles agreed to a restructured contract, but nobody has seen details yet (update: details are starting to come out, and it looks like Foles has an $8M cap hit for 2020, which would give the Bears about $8-9M in cap space before the Ifedi signing). We also don’t know exactly what the cap hit for Germain Ifedi will be. Spotrac and Over The Cap, the two main NFL cap sites, are both operating under the assumption that Foles’ Jacksonville contract transferred over, and they both list the Bears with under $2 million in cap space right now. Restructuring Foles could clear up to $10 million, and there are other moves the Bears could do to push cap money to the future, but Ryan Pace has already aggressively moved money to the future this off-season. So the Bears still have a little bit of wiggle room, but probably aren’t handing out any big free agency contracts at this point. One other thing to keep in mind: only the top 51 cap hits count against the cap in the off-season, and the Bears currently have more than 51 players under contract. So if they sign a free agent for a minimum-level deal (somewhere around $1 million cap hit if you include a small signing bonus), it only adds about $300,000 to their cap, because it displaces somebody already counting as $675,000 from the top 51. Needs OK, let’s look at what the Bears’ biggest immediate needs for 2020 are based on the depth chart above. These are the spots Chicago should probably focus most of their attention on with small free agent moves and the two meaningful draft picks they have. Wide receiver: Everybody talks about how bad Chicago’s tight ends were last year, and with good reason, but Javon Wims quietly produced at a similarly terrible efficiency. I bring this up because Wims is currently slotted as a starter, which is less than ideal. Maybe Riley Ridley pushes him from that spot, but he did nothing as a rookie last year, and the Bears desperately need a WR with speed after cutting Taylor Gabriel. In what is supposed to be a loaded draft class, this feels like a spot that probably gets addressed in the draft, but a cheap veteran addition wouldn’t be a bad idea either. (Side note: Cordarrelle Patterson is not the answer. He’s never produced like a starting WR with 4 different NFL teams, including with Bill Belichick in New England. He’s a bit player, so please stop talking about him as their answer at WR2 in the comments). Offensive line: Germain Ifedi has a lot of starting experience, but nobody actually thinks he played well in Seattle (though at least one Seattle writer thinks he could be better in a new setting). Chicago’s depth on the OL is also incredibly shaky right now. Only Rashaad Coward has any experience, and he was bad last year. I can only assume Ifedi would be the swing tackle if Leno or Massie went down. They should honestly look to add a cheap veteran tackle still in free agency and spend a 2nd round pick on an offensive lineman. Cornerback: Artie Burns has some starting experience, but I can’t find anybody from Pittsburgh who thinks he’s anything but terrible. He’s competing for a starting spot opposite Kyle Fuller with Kevin Toliver and Tre Roberson, and maybe Duke Shelley gets in the mix too. This feels like a spot where a 2nd round pick could enter the fray and have a decent chance to play early. Safety: Deon Bush and Jordan Lucas are currently battling for a starting spot. Both have some playing experience, but neither has been particularly great. I don’t expect another veteran to be signed, but a 2nd round pick (or maybe even a 5th rounder) could be added to the mix. Edge Rusher: Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn might be the best starting duo of edge rushers in the NFL. Their current 3rd edge – Barkevious Mingo – has 5 sacks in the last 6 years. The 4th edge rusher is currently Isaiah Irving, who has 1 career sack in 3 seasons with the Bears. I don’t know if they have the resources to meaningfully upgrade here, but I won’t be upset if they spend a high pick on a pass rusher they like. There are obviously other needs (tight end is a huge one looming for the future, depth can be improved pretty much across the board), but those are the spots where I see the largest potential issues for the Bears in 2020 as of right now. Accordingly, most of my draft attention over the next month will be focused on these positions, and if you’re looking to use your stay-at-home time to read up on NFL draft prospects, I recommend focusing here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 1, 2020 Author Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) More current data on the Foles contract restructure is trickling out and if the $8 mil cap hit is accurate instead of the nearly $16 mil we were looking at then Pace does have some breathing space to add more vet help in FA. The question is who and at what position. So let's review Jonathan Woods analysis. WR: I'm willing to concede the need for a WR who has some ability to stretch a defense I'm just not sure where that guys falls into the scheme as far as at what point you draft one. In order to spend a 2nd round pick on one he'd need to be a well above average prospect who could contribute immediately. Jalen Reagor has been mentioned in mocks but from his scouting report I have to wonder if he's not more of a guy who would replace Tarik Cohen than one who would replace Taylor Gabriel. I don't how much we can expect from Javon Wims since he was a late 7th round pick so I would expect to see more from Ridley this year. He just wasn't used much in 2019. OL: I still believe this is a position we need to target in the 2nd round but I'm thinking it should be an OG/OC type looking to solidify the interior with young talent rather than an OT. I suppose Ifedi could move to RG but I still see him more as a RT/RG backup and while Bars is listed as a backup OC I'm thinking that he and Mustipher (who was a college OC) somehow got switched around. Bars could well become the LT/LG backup and then we add some OT prospects later in the draft or street FAs to add some competition. We should have a guy we're developing who we can stash on the PS for now and work from there. OT isn't our greatest need this year. CB: Pagano has been a secondary coach so I feel I have to defer to him on this. Does he like who he has as far as a replacement for Amukamara or are we in need of a better guy than those we have? I though Tolliver looked good in short stints last year, we added both Roberson and Burns, and although better as slot CBs both Skrine and Shelley have played on the outside. If DB is deemed to be a 2nd round need does Pagano want another CB or a SS prospect. We can't do both in round two and meet other objectives. SS: Personally I see a bigger need here than at CB because I don't fully trust Bush as a starter and I think Lucas is more of a spot player a well. I'd like to see what Stephen Denmark would look like as a SS but the draft also has a much higher rated "monster safety" prospect in Jeremy Chinn and the Bears have also shown an interest in him. Grant Delpit is another big Safety whose also been mocked to the Bears. I'd like to see us take one of these guys and move Jackson back to playing FS where he poses a much bigger threat to passing offenses. It's really the position he's built to play so a bigger "in the box" type SS with decent coverage skills would be good. OLB/Edge: Here's where I'd roll the dice on a kid who was a stud pass rusher in college but may not tick off all of the boxes otherwise as as far as size, coverage ability, etc. What we're looking for here is someone who can compete with and possibly take Irving's place as a backup. In fact I'd bring in several guys via the draft and UDFA and let them battle for that #4 OLB spot because the DE spots are pretty well covered with the guys we have now; RRH, Nichols, Hicks, and Urban. Edited April 2, 2020 by soulman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Our defensive starters are pretty darn good as a group, but our 2nd string is pretty awful as a group. We still have a pretty big question marks at CB2 and SS. I just don’t have much faith in Leno and Massie anymore. It seems their best is average and their worst is well below. I think Whitehair and Daniels will be okay as they have legit talent and I think winner of Coward, Ifedi, Levin or Bars can step in and be better than last year. It WAS Coward last year you say and you included him on list. Yeah, but he never played guard before. Theoretically he should be better at it this year if asked to do it again. Honestly, speaking of winner, I would like to see guys win their jobs for once rather than just having it handed to them. Long should never have started last year. He was given job after being worst player in camp. Bars and Ifedi should be given legit shots to win an OT job. Levin should be given a legit shot to win a starting position inside. I am guess Daniels and Whitehair are penciled in. Leno and Massie probably are too, but they shouldn’t be IMO. I think if we just eliminate all the mistakes from last year things would be quite a bit better. But our top OL signee biggest fault is mistakes. That is concerning. With a possibly bad o line and still a lack of explosive playmakers with true speed this could be a tough year offensively yet again. Though I don’t see how it could be worse than last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) Is this an Angelo team? Defense looks good but thin, offense is a mess. Draft the best available OL, WR, or CB. Edited April 2, 2020 by abstract_thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, dll2000 said: Our defensive starters are pretty darn good as a group, but our 2nd string is pretty awful as a group. We still have a pretty big question marks at CB2 and SS. I just don’t have much faith in Leno and Massie anymore. It seems their best is average and their worst is well below. I think Whitehair and Daniels will be okay as they have legit talent and I think winner of Coward, Ifedi, Levin or Bars can step in and be better than last year. It WAS Coward last year you say and you included him on list. Yeah, but he never played guard before. Theoretically he should be better at it this year if asked to do it again. Honestly, speaking of winner, I would like to see guys win their jobs for once rather than just having it handed to them. Long should never have started last year. He was given job after being worst player in camp. Bars and Ifedi should be given legit shots to win an OT job. Levin should be given a legit shot to win a starting position inside. I am guess Daniels and Whitehair are penciled in. Leno and Massie probably are too, but they shouldn’t be IMO. I think if we just eliminate all the mistakes from last year things would be quite a bit better. But our top OL signee biggest fault is mistakes. That is concerning. With a possibly bad o line and still a lack of explosive playmakers with true speed this could be a tough year offensively yet again. Though I don’t see how it could be worse than last year. But does any team actually have great depth? And when you look at the cap we have tied up in the DL and OLB spots plus Jackson and Fuller it's pretty easy to see that any depth has to be cheap depth which is one reason I would probably favor drafting a SS as opposed to spending more on a FA like Tony Jefferson. He'd be a nice addition but at what price? I'll hold off on any judgements of Leno and Massie until after this season. I'd love to see a better pair of OTs too but that's not gonna happen now so they key is to make them better. The entire OL seemed to lack any leadership and cohesion last year which is what cost HH his job. Let's see what Castillo can do with the same bunch. Can't get any worse. I didn't like Coward at OG at all. But considering he was a DL being converted to an OL and we've moved him from RT to RG maybe I'm being premature. I'm thinking we'd be better off drafting an OG who can start as Whitehair and Daniels did, use Ifedi as a right side backup and move Coward to the PS if possible and continue to develop him there. But all of this could shake out very differently under Castillo this summer so who knows who the best 5 will be. As for the rest we really don't know right now what changes Nagy and his new offensive crew might be planning but clearly even without explosive speed if this offense can generate at least 24-27 points per game we're gonna win far more than we lose. It makes little difference how it gets done only that it does get done. The days of averaging 16-17 points per game need to end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbo Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 5 hours ago, soulman said: I didn't like Coward at OG at all. But considering he was a DL being converted to an OL and we've moved him from RT to RG maybe I'm being premature. I'm thinking we'd be better off drafting an OG who can start as Whitehair and Daniels did, use Ifedi as a right side backup and move Coward to the PS if possible and continue to develop him there. Leno, Daniels, Whitehair, Massie are all locked in due to contract/draft status for Daniels. Ifedi and Bars are currently #2 across the entire line, with Daniels moving to C for Whitehair if needed. I don't think either should be viewed as a starter at this point, though Bars still has some potential to unlock and could surprise. Draft: #1 RG, #2 LT 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 5 hours ago, jumbo said: Leno, Daniels, Whitehair, Massie are all locked in due to contract/draft status for Daniels. Ifedi and Bars are currently #2 across the entire line, with Daniels moving to C for Whitehair if needed. I don't think either should be viewed as a starter at this point, though Bars still has some potential to unlock and could surprise. Draft: #1 RG, #2 LT We're on somewhat the same page. I can see using Ifedi as the OT/OG backup on the right side and Bars the same on the left side. In an emergency he could probably play some LT but hopefully he won't have to. Leno has always been able to remain healthy so let's hope that continues. I'd spend one of those 2nd round picks on a top OG/OC prospect with both Ruiz and Cushenberry as guys who tend to be ranked in the range of our 2nd round picks. Then we'd have 3 somewhat interchangeable parts playing as interior OL and if someone can handle OC better than Whitehair he can very easily be shifted to OG. A LT prospect will probably have to wait 'til day three but it's not impossible to draft a guy with LT type skills that late. Leno was a 7th round pick. But it will almost certainly be a guy who'll need a year or two of grooming before he's game ready. Actually we should probably be spending more picks on OTs than we have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 11 hours ago, soulman said: I'll hold off on any judgements of Leno and Massie until after this season. I think we have a pretty good idea of who Leno and Massie are at this point. They are capable of being average which is what you hope you get from them. But all of this could shake out very differently under Castillo this summer so who knows who the best 5 will be. My hope is they make tough decisions based on who is actually performing the best in practice rather than the name on their jersey. I doubt it though based on past experience with this staff and GM. Strangely enough, most high school and college coaches will take this approach and most NFL coaches will not. Contracts, lack of trust in young players, draft position and existence of GM's pride and ego being the difference. As for the rest we really don't know right now what changes Nagy and his new offensive crew might be planning but clearly even without explosive speed if this offense can generate at least 24-27 points per game we're gonna win far more than we lose. It makes little difference how it gets done only that it does get done. The days of averaging 16-17 points per game need to end. Like the Spartan's said: IF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, dll2000 said: Yep, to all. We can win with Leno and Massie provided they make a comeback from that clusterfork we saw last year. Economics do play a very real role in who starts and who doesn't but less so because of the money than due to making a GM look bad and risking his job if the guy he paid big bucks to is sitting on the bench. I have never been convinced that all game day player personnel decision have always been the purview of a HC with no input whatsoever from his GM. IMHO that would be a fantasy belief. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 4 hours ago, soulman said: Yep, to all. We can win with Leno and Massie provided they make a comeback from that clusterfork we saw last year. Wait, I thought you said the analytics said Massie wasn't bad? Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 2, 2020 Author Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Sugashane said: Wait, I thought you said the analytics said Massie wasn't bad? Lol. I'm talking about the offense in general not anyone specific. The OL was part of that mess but from my point of view it looked to me like they simply weren't grasping the run blocking scheme and their assignments. Pass blocking was not as bad and maybe even slightly above average based on those analytics. He also missed 6 games last year due to injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Why the **** is Wims "slotted as a starter"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Heinz D. said: Why the **** is Wims "slotted as a starter"? As opposed to who else? Robinson, Miller and then _____? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: As opposed to who else? Robinson, Miller and then _____? Cohen should be the slot guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: As opposed to who else? Robinson, Miller and then _____? I don't know why they'd have three wideouts as "starters" in the first place, as the Bears deploy so many different looks. But jeez...could be Wims, could be Ridley, could be someone not on the team yet. A "?" would be as accurate as Wims...and don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Wims supporter, and hope he works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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