Bears Covid Group Chat

[G08]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

They need to find a treatment that keeps people off of ventilators. 

If they can find something that keeps people out of the ICU like they do with the flu then we can go back to somewhat normal.

We will have to go back to a version of normal before the vaccine is ready.

Problem is that the virus attaches itself to receptors that are located in the lungs. It's incredibly clever, I'd call it beautiful if it wasn't such a God damned nuisance.

[beardown3231]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would be surprised if it was Covid back in February.

As I understand it the exponential growth [curve] is very rapid because of how communicable it it.

If a number of people in North America had it in February I think we would have seen the spoke in March instead of right now. Unless they were not reported as Covid cases a couple of months ago.

 

It seems to spread to quickly and exponentially for a February to now peaking.

She went back to the doctor a few weeks ago and that same doctor said to her "remember when you saw me in February? I'd bet almost anything it was CV."

We'll never know but I don't think it's as crazy as we may believe.

[Superman(DH23)]

18 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would be surprised if it was Covid back in February.

As I understand it the exponential growth [curve] is very rapid because of how communicable it it.

If a number of people in North America had it in February I think we would have seen the spoke in March instead of right now. Unless they were not reported as Covid cases a couple of months ago.

 

It seems to spread to quickly and exponentially for a February to now peaking.

Again several doctors I talked to said that ANY cold like illness in the past 3 months was likely covid-19.  This has been a thing since at least Nov, it was just kept under wraps in an inhumane way until Jan.  

[Superman(DH23)]

Btw, just so everybody is aware, the existing broadband infrastructure was not designed to have 90% of the population sitting at home watching netflix all day everyday, you are going to experience slow speeds.  Take it easy on your providers and know they are doing the best they can right now.  Yes it sucks to not get what you think you should based on what you pay for, but it's not bc you are being throttled or the provider isnt doing their part.  Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

[Superman(DH23)]

Also one other thing on the subject of covid, the mortality rate may not be very accurate.  Yes we are seeing people die after they have tested positive for covid-19, or in some cases, tested after death, however we are seeing a severe drop in deaths as a result of other causes such as heart disease and cancer.  There have been reports that alot of deaths supposedly from covid-19 could have been other things and they are just being reported as covid-19 bc of a positive test.  Remember that the risk groups include the elderly, people w/heart disease, and people w/cancer or undergoing treatment for cancer.  These are groups that already have high mortality rates.  I think we can only really know the true mortality rate by controlling for the normal number of deaths for natural causes and not.just assume if somebody has covid-19 and they die, they died bc of covid-19

[Heinz D.]

16 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Also one other thing on the subject of covid, the mortality rate may not be very accurate.  Yes we are seeing people die after they have tested positive for covid-19, or in some cases, tested after death, however we are seeing a severe drop in deaths as a result of other causes such as heart disease and cancer.  There have been reports that alot of deaths supposedly from covid-19 could have been other things and they are just being reported as covid-19 bc of a positive test.  Remember that the risk groups include the elderly, people w/heart disease, and people w/cancer or undergoing treatment for cancer.  These are groups that already have high mortality rates.  I think we can only really know the true mortality rate by controlling for the normal number of deaths for natural causes and not.just assume if somebody has covid-19 and they die, they died bc of covid-19

There's no way of knowing if those people with underlying conditions would have died had they not also contracted covid-19, though. I don't think there's ever going to be a way to get a totally clear picture of how bad the thing is, in that particular aspect anyway. 

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

There's no way of knowing if those people with underlying conditions would have died had they not also contracted covid-19, though. I don't think there's ever going to be a way to get a totally clear picture of how bad the thing is, in that particular aspect anyway. 

You're correct that we cant know for sure, but we know what the normal rates are and that is being grossly under reported.  I would argue that if you controlled for normal rates that it would be a much more accurate #.  

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

You're correct that we cant know for sure, but we know what the normal rates are and that is being grossly under reported.  I would argue that if you controlled for normal rates that it would be a much more accurate #.  

I'm confused as to why it matters so much. 

[dll2000]

13 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I'm confused as to why it matters so much. 

Because you are making very large decisions based on risk assessments Very large.  Everything In life contains a cost benefit analysis.  

At what point does an airplane go from Wright brothers construction to safe enough for commercial flight?  How much do you regulate cars while still keeping them affordable?  Do you allow drugs or alcohol to be legal?  Which ones?

Do you understand that millions of people are suffering financially as a result of shut downs and will face or are facing very hard life decisions?  These things result in depression and stress and on and on.   

There is no if it only saves one life it is worth it.  By that standard we would do nothing and have nothing.   There would be no football.  

[G08]

... What's the argument here? Accurate reporting of COVID-19 deaths? 

Are people arguing the number should be less and we're not in the midst of a pandemic the likes of which none of us have ever seen? 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

52 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Because you are making very large decisions based on risk assessments Very large.  Everything In life contains a cost benefit analysis.  

At what point does an airplane go from Wright brothers construction to safe enough for commercial flight?  How much do you regulate cars while still keeping them affordable?  Do you allow drugs or alcohol to be legal?  Which ones?

Do you understand that millions of people are suffering financially as a result of shut downs and will face or are facing very hard life decisions?  These things result in depression and stress and on and on.   

There is no if it only saves one life it is worth it.  By that standard we would do nothing and have nothing.   There would be no football.  

If we ignore, you know, all the people that would die,  do you think it's worth it if we overload the hospitals to the point where they plain don't work anymore? While we certainly spend a lot on healthcare, I don't think anyone would say it's a robust system.  The one country that is doing anything close to what you seem to be suggesting is Sweden, and they have roughly 9 times the death rate of neighboring Finland, and ~13 times the infection rate.  Show me one US hospital in an infected area that could handle 13 times the patients they have now. If you're suggesting that cities should ride it out and let rural areas get to work,  you might consider researching the capacity of your local hospital. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

6 minutes ago, G08 said:

... What's the argument here? Accurate reporting of COVID-19 deaths? 

Are people arguing the number should be less and we're not in the midst of a pandemic the likes of which none of us have ever seen? 

I think the argument is that the consequences wouldn't be as bad as people think, and that the harm to the economy is worse than letting the disease run it's course. 

[G08]

49 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I think the argument is that the consequences wouldn't be as bad as people think, and that the harm to the economy is worse than letting the disease run it's course. 

Oh man... I think death and loss of loved ones trumps (get it) terrible preparation for said pandemic and the resulting hit to the economy.

Then again, if we are being honest, these Republican tax cuts and mismanagement of funds always seems to end in a recession. But I digress.

[Superman(DH23)]

19 minutes ago, G08 said:

... What's the argument here? Accurate reporting of COVID-19 deaths? 

Are people arguing the number should be less and we're not in the midst of a pandemic the likes of which none of us have ever seen? 

First of all, the likes of which none of us have ever seen is totally false.  If you compare this to h1n1 its remarkably similar.  The difference has really been the reaction to it.  I'm not suggesting it not be taken seriously, bc it should.  But there is a A LOT of fear mongering happening that creates panic.  Panic is the last thing this pandemic needs.  We need real facts and real solutions and people need to understand why the economy needs to be a top concern.  They are talking about putting us in a recession worse than the great depression, which I will assure you will cause more deaths than this virus that the vast majority of the population will feel is nothing more than a really bad cold.  You know why hospitals will be overrun?  Bc of the panic that is being created.  People that would normally not seek treatment bc it would be just another cold are frequenting ERs and Urgent Care centers demanding to be tested.  I live in Iowa, a state of about 3.5M people with about 1200 cases last I heard and around 50 deaths.  And we are killing small businesses in this state over those 50 deaths.  In a state with one of the best educational systems in the country we froze it in place for a month, with kids just now starting online learning and that doesnt include the elementary students.  People who are in risk groups absolutely should take extra precautions.  I am trying to do everything I can for my elderly mother so she can avoid going out.  Keep in mind that this virus can be pretty much contained by people washing their hands regularly and avoiding touching their face.  While every death is tragic, and all lives are sacred, what does the cost/benefit analysis tell you is the right thing to do here?  We are talking about 40% unemployment, people losing their homes, kids missing out on education, long lasting impacts, over what is likely to be less than 400 deaths in this state when it's all said and done.  

[G08]

1 minute ago, Superman(DH23) said:

You know why hospitals will be overrun?  Bc of the panic that is being created. 

Not being rude but have you been inside these hospitals? I have. It's not panic, it's profound levels of death and suffering.