The case for moving Landon Collins to WLB signing another SS

[turtle28]

 

[MKnight82]

The case is that he’s terrible in coverage and overpaid as a safety.

[Doc Draper]

[MikeT14]

Wow, pay a guy a lot of money and it works out so well that we have to move positions for him. 

[MikeT14]

Perfect example of that quote we saw on Bruce Allen signing players he wanted with no regard to whether they actually fit the systems or not. 

[turtle28]

Collins is best around the line of scrimmage right? So why not make him a WLB? 

I guess you can view it as he didn't work out at S so we have to move him, but that's not how I view it. Landon was fine at safety, he had a pro bowl caliber year at S (he was better for the Redskins in 2019 then he was for the Giants in 2018).

Yes, of course he could’ve been better at times in coverage and he missed some tackles but he was good overall, it's not like his signing was even close to being a bust after one season.

I view it as putting a player in the best position to succeed bc he’s an elite player around the line of scrimmage and he's not as good when he has to play deep coverage. He's great against the run, great at shedding blocks and getting in the backfield to make plays. Because of that, just make him a weakside linebacker and sign Reshad Jones, Eric Reid, Tony Jefferson or Tavon Wilson to play SS or draft a S like JR Reid from Georgia with our 4th round pick.

Edited April 3, 2020 by turtle28

[naptownskinsfan]

10 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

The case is that he’s terrible in coverage and overpaid as a safety.

Exactly.  With how the safety position evolved, we set a record for spending for a guy who can't cover.  Indefensible.  If we do move him, I can't blame Rivera though, for trying to make the best out of a bad situation that he inherited.  

[turtle28]

We can do back and forth all day on how good or bad Collins is in coverage, the truth to me seems to be that it's somewhere between ”he's terrible at coverage, ” and he’s good in coverage. 

The point of this post was to see if people agreed with me that moving Collins to weakside linebacker was the best idea for him and this defense. It's something I've been pushing for since we hired Rivera and we all knew that we’d likely be moving back to the 4-3.

I thank @naptownskinsfan for at least addressing the actual post and question I had in his second sentence in his post.

[e16bball]

I think Reuben Foster and Cole Holcomb both settle in at WLB in this defense, so I think looking to move Collins from a position where we have no one to a position where we have two potentially promising options is a weird roster strategy choice. 

Moreover, I think he’s a good SS. I think it’s weird that I have to defend a 25-year-old guy who is a three-time Pro Bowler and former 1st team All Pro at this position, and who was pretty clearly the best and most impactful player on our defense last year. Easily top two, with Ioannidis potentially thrown in there if you’re a big fan of his. Everyone is so quick to write him off as “bad in coverage,” and it’s clearly not his strength, but I think it’s way overblown. Guy gave up 7.0 yards/target, who besides the truly elite cover safeties is doing much better than that? And how many of them can match what Collins can do in the box? 

I would like them to add another FS, long before I would want them to add another SS. I don’t trust Sean Davis to be the answer there (sue me), and even if he is, I would like to see more coverage ability on the field. It doesn’t make much sense to me to add in another guy who is good in the box but not much of a cover guy. Just use Collins at SS and an actual LB at WLB if that’s what you want. 

What they should be looking to do, if they’re worried about Collins holding up in coverage, is utilizing two FS types in passing situations and kicking Collins down closer to the line of scrimmage. If they sign Damarious Randall, which I think they should, they could utilize a nice 3 safety package where he and Davis play deeper halves/thirds and you can use Collins and Fuller in the middle of the field. I think they’re going to pass on Randall and just use Fuller over the top as the second deep safety type, but I think you’re wasting Fuller’s talents closer to the LOS by doing that. 

[naptownskinsfan]

Another great post @e16bball but you may want to replace Randall with someone else.  He just signed with someone late last night, the Raiders.  Otherwise, I agree with most of what you are saying except his pass coverage.  He ranked 106 in pass coverage for safeties per PFF with 61.1 coverage.  In 2018, he had a 68 coverage score.  In 2017, he was actually really good per PFF with 81.6.  

What's clear is that there is a decline happening with a three year average.  Even if people don't like PFF, there is something to see when looking at trends, especially over three years.  That's also what I tell people to look at with advanced MLB defensive stats, because they tend to go the same way as PFF grades from time to time.  Also, the eye test to me indicates that he's not good at all covering deep, nor in man to man situations, especially against TE's or RB's.  He's got to be played near the line of scrimmage and in zone situations.  

A good player, yes, absolutely.  I don't disagree with that.  But we gave him a top contract for a defensive back, and he's just not worth it.   

[offbyone]

I think the logic is sound, but we paid him too big of a contract to experiment with him changing positions.  

[turtle28]

I agree with @e16bball’s post like usual, it makes sense.

I agree that Holcolmb, Foster, KPL, SDH & even JHC will be the ones that will truly be competing for the starting WLB spot.

Foster, it all depends on health. My thinking unless he's truly 100% when the season starts is that he should he put on PUP and come back midseason.

I think Holcolmb actually fits better at MLB or SLB bc he's not as strong in coverage as all of these other LBs and he's a beast vs the run.

I give KPL the inside shot to be our starting WLB but I could see any of these guys winning the job - my favorite LB on our team is SDH - I'd love to see him start. I think he's just the best all-around LB we have. He’s a leader, he's smart, he's solid against the run and good in pass coverage.

It's a crying shame that SDH didn't start last year over Holcolmb or Bostic or at least be our nickel LB over Holcomb last year bc he's our best coverage LB and I think JHC is also better then Holcomb in coverage but bc JHC has played so little on D it's hard to know that for sure, he is a converted college SS after all who when he was coming out in the draft he was the size of Cam Chancellor and now he's 15 pounds heavier then even Cam was as a SS in the league. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by turtle28

[HTTRDynasty]

I expect Landon Collins to be used similarly to the way JDR used TJ Ward in Denver.  He'll play the vast majority of his snaps near the LOS, whether at SS or LB.  We'll be in mostly Cover 1 or Cover 3 coverages anyway, so it doesn't really matter either way.  He'll be defending short zones near the LOS or TEs in man coverage.

Collins' best seasons - 2016 (82.4 PFF grade and All Pro) and 2017 (82.3 PFF grade and Pro Bowl) - were not coincidently the seasons he was playing behind a very good DL.  2016 was the season the Giants went wild in FA and signed Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins.  Playing behind Vernon, Harrison, Hankins and JPP allowed Collins to shine and be the playmaker he was born to be around the LOS.  I think playing behind our 2020 DL rotation, in addition to far better coaching, will allow him to be the same.

[naptownskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I expect Landon Collins to be used similarly to the way JDR used TJ Ward in Denver.  He'll play the vast majority of his snaps near the LOS, whether at SS or LB.  We'll be in mostly Cover 1 or Cover 3 coverages anyway, so it doesn't really matter either way.  He'll be defending short zones near the LOS or TEs in man coverage.

Collins' best seasons - 2016 (82.4 PFF grade and All Pro) and 2017 (82.3 PFF grade and Pro Bowl) - were not coincidently the seasons he was playing behind a very good DL.  2016 was the season the Giants went wild in FA and signed Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins.  Playing behind Vernon, Harrison, Hankins and JPP allowed Collins to shine and be the playmaker he was born to be around the LOS.  I think playing behind our 2020 DL rotation, in addition to far better coaching, will allow him to be the same.

All that sounds mostly great, except him in man coverage against TE's by design is going to go bad for us.  Playing behind a defensive line that can push forward like ours will likely be able to will absolutely free him up to make plays.  

[e16bball]

31 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Another great post @e16bball but you may want to replace Randall with someone else.  He just signed with someone late last night, the Raiders.  Otherwise, I agree with most of what you are saying except his pass coverage.  He ranked 106 in pass coverage for safeties per PFF with 61.1 coverage.  In 2018, he had a 68 coverage score.  In 2017, he was actually really good per PFF with 81.6.  

What's clear is that there is a decline happening with a three year average.  Even if people don't like PFF, there is something to see when looking at trends, especially over three years.  That's also what I tell people to look at with advanced MLB defensive stats, because they tend to go the same way as PFF grades from time to time.  Also, the eye test to me indicates that he's not good at all covering deep, nor in man to man situations, especially against TE's or RB's.  He's got to be played near the line of scrimmage and in zone situations.  

A good player, yes, absolutely.  I don't disagree with that.  But we gave him a top contract for a defensive back, and he's just not worth it.   

Good catch on Randall. Super lame of him to do that to me.

I consider pass coverage to be both highly subjective (I don’t believe PFF accurately assigns coverage grades in many circumstances) and highly variable. Even they acknowledge that their scores for secondary players fluctuate dramatically from year to year. I think more than any other position aside from perhaps RB production, pass coverage is extremely dependent on other variables. Scheme, quality of pass-rush, ability to trust other players around you. A player’s outcomes in pass coverage are not just representative of his own ability — the same player may have better or worse outcomes depending entirely on variables beyond his control.

I agree with you that the eye test suggests that Collins is limited in coverage. I think as the safety closer to the LOS, he draws assignments that most safeties struggle with, in terms of man coverage against RBs, slot receivers, and receiving TEs. Not many safeties hold up well consistently in matchups like that. But he does have his limitations, and I agree he’s at his worst in deep halves or thirds. 
 

And for the record, I agree that we overpaid Collins. Just as I believe that we’ll soon see that we overpaid Fuller, as well. But you don’t win games by accumulating the highest “bang for your buck” score. Cap space doesn’t put points on the board — you need players. We have tons of the former, and precious few of the latter. If we’re paying some of our good players a couple/few million AAV more than we probably should, I’m at peace with that. And he is a good player. A very good one, though admittedly not a truly elite one as the contract suggests. We’re years away from any sort of cap crunch with this team, so the real-life opportunity cost of overpaying some guys for the next couple seasons is extremely low in my view.

Which, incidentally, is why I would have been fine with paying Cooper and/or Hooper what they wanted as well.