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Would you consider trading our 2021 1st on draft day?


Would you consider trading our 2021 1st on draft day?  

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  1. 1. See thread title

    • Yes
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    • No
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So it’s a simple question. Basically what I’m wondering is, do you think we’re far enough along in the rebuild to consider moving next year’s first, if a great opportunity is available? For instance, I was thinking about how crazy it would be to watch Andrew Thomas fall into the 20’s, and how disappointing it would be for him to go elsewhere, even if we landed Ruggs or Kinlaw at 15. 

Obviously it would take a perfect situation. A team willing to move. The right player falling far enough. Teams matching up on future pick value (I’ve heard of future picks being valued anywhere in the top 10 of the current year’s next round. So a 2021 1st would be worth anywhere from this year’s picks 33-42. That’s a pretty decent gap to bridge.) I know it was a long time ago, but we traded a future 1st for pick 37 (let’s not think about it too much), and we moved down from 25 to 75ish for a future 1st (when WSH picked Campbell). 

But anyways. Are we good enough to take a major swing like that? 

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3rd party observer, but no way. Contending teams with established quarterbacks can make that kind of move, but teams that have the potential to pick top 8 or worse should not. When the Texans traded up for Watson, I said that pick could be higher than they think. it ended up at 4. Obviously Watson is a stud, do they don't regret it, but that wasn't something they anticipated. 

These kind of trades are especially tricky with young, rookie quarterbacks. I get that Drew is technically second year, but obviously a very limited starting sample. I think Denver will be solid this year, but certainly not out of the realm for any team with a young quarterback to completely crap the bed. It happens. 

If you had a more established qb, is maybe be amenable to it, but young quarterbacks struggle. 

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Hard pass. There are three scenarios where IMO you consider trading away a future first

 

1) Moving up to get an elite franchise QB prospect

 

2) When you have a QB and are going all in to win a ring

 

3) If the draft is significantly better than the next year

 

I expect a high bust rate on this year’s draft because of the lack of due diligence available.

 

If anything I would like to try and trade 46 away for next year’s first 

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Hard pass.

Ppl like to think about best case, but I think best-case, worst-case, most likely....

Best case - you are looking for an elite guy in the 20's?   Man, that's an iffy scenario.  I do hear it's for a guy who's falling.

Worst case - Lock isn't ready for prime time, D's have examined film...or worse, he gets hurt.    Then we are literally back to the same O issues as last year.   A 4-9 team before Lock took over.   That's a top 5 - 10 pick.    And if we get any other key injuries early.......well, you know how that could work out for 2021.

Most likely - We are still a ways from being a legit contender without obvious holes on both sides of the ball (T, C, WR2, no TE depth behind Fant, who also has same issues as Lock progression wise; on D ILB, CB and DT depth).    KC still the class, and pretty easy argument LAC is well ahead, and the stopgap QB tier still left is miles ahead of us having to rely on Joe freaking Flacco with draft capital AND 8-figure $.   Guessing they are thinking Tua as plan A (move up), then will go vet & Tyrod as plan B.      Either way - the odds we contend legitimately still against us, even with a 7th playoff spot.

 

When you add the 3 together, I don't even think about trading the 2021 1st.   Not even close.    I like to look at HOU doing a very similar thing to get Watson - only for Watson to go down...and then trading away the 1.4 pick.  That's the worst-case.    The most-likely is that it's not enough to cement us a legit contender now - which is where you also guarantee next year's pick is in the mid-20's.   That's not the case here.    The best-case seems like a fairy tale odds-wise.

Edited by Broncofan
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I wouldn't do it this year. If Lock takes another step + the right talent is drafted this year to supplement what we already have, I would probably consider it next year, but I think it's one year too early to consider it.

As UK mentioned, we have enough ammo from Rounds 2/3 to move up into the late first if we really wanted to without mortgaging next year's first. I'm of the personal opinion you should only be trading 1st rounders for established veterans with good contracts or a rookie QB. Anything else I don't think is worth the risk

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