2018 College Prospect Thread

[Scoundrel]

This debate is pointless though when Elway ends up drafting Josh Allen...

[DiehardBronxFan]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

People overblow Mayfield’s off the field issues.   I do worry he can be rattled easily on the field - college D are so easy to mask flaws that NFL D’s will expose, it matters little in college.   To me the Q is more on the other QB skills - QB college success rarely predicts NFL franchise QB play - the number of college - to - NFL duds is staggering nowadays with the move to more spread O’s.

FWIW, some of the qualifiers that make a prospect elite that reassure me:

1.  Elite physical tools - in terms of QB size makes it easier - but in the case of Wilson he had elite agility / speed and huge hands and a cannon arm.    Brees had the hands and arm and also had insane non-physical skills.  Size isn’t a necessity if you have the rest in spades.   Darnold might have the whole set (unless hands are small).   Does Mayfield have the rest of the needed skills besides size?   Remember you can be the hardest worker and smartest guy and if you don’t have those Pro-level skills you will still fail (where you can still fail if you don’t have the work ethic / smarts but you need the skill starter step first).

2.  Success at a young age - this mitigates the variance you see  with bad/great teammates or bad/great opposition.   Success in your freshman / sophomore year really stands out.   That’s where Darnold & even Rosen to a lesser extent reassure.  Wilson took over as a freshman starter,  Brees in his sophomore year.  Which impresses even more with...

3.  Success against elite competition / with a pro system - nothing against Mayfield but this is a huge unknown. The O style where he mimics running in his first 2 steps from spread / shotgun to force the D to commit then throws doesn’t work as the base in the NFL.    Like Lynch’s Memphis system had huge  Q’s here.  Now you can debate PAC-12 level of competition as no better than Big 12 that’s fair but both systems in USC and UCLA are far more pro-level in QB requirements than OKL’s is.   Wilson & Brees success is even more impressive realizing they faced the best Big 10 D’s year in and year out. 

Darnold and Rosen check the boxes in 1,2,3 (unless Darnold has small hands then legit issue).  Note that #1 & #3 aren’t fixed that Mayfield doesn’t have - it’s why the BCS Senior Bowl and Combine will help add a lot more crucial info.   I still won’t be as reassured but the gap could be closed.   But right now assuming he doesn’t have the Wilson level elusiveness or Brees/Wilson cannon and hands that’s a huge diff.  

Now for QB you want to see the following non-physical skills: 

4.   D recognition and read progresssion   

5.   Anticipation and accuracy in tight windows. 

6.   Pocket awareness and eyes up with pressure. 

Oklahoma’s O and the quality of the Big 12 D’s don’t create a lot of chances to evaluate #4-#6 properly.   BCS and Senior Bowl will be massive here if OKL gets to play 2 games to add more legit D film that could show more here.   

And to be clear the price matters - if we are talking Day 2 you can take more risk and accept more flaws.   But at 1.6 - 1.10 you shouldn’t have flags across the board #1 most of all (and #2 I’m a huge fan of, which he won’t have).  But at least it’s still an unknown in #1 that Combine and Senior Bowl will answer, and we we’ll see #3 - #6 dealt with way more info in the BCS and Senior Bowl. 

Best case for us is that he struggles in the BCS and shows non elite traits.  That will drop his stock even more than so called character issues (which I don’t worry about except on how it affects his emotions on field).  That then allows a move from 2.x to late 1st as reasonable.   If we have to pick him at 1.6 - 1.10 no thanks if he’s still not checking the #1 box (and doesn’t have the #2 box). 

 

Not sure how anyone questions Bakers physical tools (arm, mobility).  Size, yes.  Hand size, don't know. But the others have been demonstrated in spades.

not sure how how you can question "box 2".  Do you know his background?  Dude came in as a non-scholarship walk-on ( due to size) and took the job away from Knight!  

The one thing nobody talks about in term of success is competitiveness.  What made Brady great? Intelligence and competitiveness.  What made Peyton great? Intelligence and competitiveness.  What makes Wilson great? Physical tools and competiveness. Rivers, Elway, Rodgers, Bradshaw, Aikman, Unitas.  

Its not about where you come from, which college you played at or against (Wentz...), what style of offense you played, how tall you are, how fast you are. Those are reasons to draft Mark Sanchez.  

 

Put on the tape, watch him play, see what he does on the field - changing plays, looking defenders off, making throws all over the field - and most importantly, leading and playing his best IN THE CLUTCH.  Learn about how he got to where he is - and then tell me he isn't going to be a starter in the NFL.  

[DiehardBronxFan]

17 minutes ago, Counselor said:

This debate is pointless though when Elway ends up drafting Josh Allen...

He has to have learned something from the Oz and Lynch failures, one would think?  I could see Elway of 2 years ago taking Allen.  Maybe even last year. But I think (I hope?), he's been humbled a bit this year.

if I had to put money, at this point, on what Elway will do is go get a vet and roll the dice on Kelly long term.  FA is what Elway does well, I think he probably know that, and he knows that drafting a QB is a crap shoot, and that if he blows it yet again, he and the team are in big trouble.

so, get yourselves ready for Cousins or Eli or Alex or Tyrod or Keenan or  McCarron or......

[Scoundrel]

3 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

He has to have learned something from the Oz and Lynch failures, one would think?  I could see Elway of 2 years ago taking Allen.  Maybe even last year. But I think (I hope?), he's been humbled a bit this year.

if I had to put money, at this point, on what Elway will do is go get a vet and roll the dice on Kelly long term.  FA is what Elway does well, I think he probably know that, and he knows that drafting a QB is a crap shoot, and that if he blows it yet again, he and the team are in big trouble.

so, get yourselves ready for Cousins or Eli or Alex or Tyrod or Keenan or  McCarron or......

I sure hope he has learned. If he shows he hasn't and takes Allen my fear is he never will.

[thebestever6]

34 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

To me, these are all pretty minor characteristics to worry about when it comes to QB evaluation, except for size.  He ran a pro-style offense?  Ok, may accelerate the learning curve somewhat.  Who cares? It's. 12-15 year investment. 21 years old?  Who cares? Brock and Lynch were young.  Counted for squat- in fact it was a detriment to being able to come in and "be a professional".

What's important is ability to make all the throws, quick release, accuracy, ability to read defenses, high football IQ, pocket awareness/mobility, and leadership and temperament, along with "adequate" size. 

With the possible exception of size, and "temperament", I'll take Baker over the two West Coast hype machine QB's. if you think he's too short, fine (but please don't say that's why McCoy or Manzel failed, because it isn't). If you're worried about his temperament, fine.  But if Elway can get comfortable with those 2 items, then Baker is you're guy, imho.  But what do I know?

Running a pro style offense also helps the evaluation process in college he's in a pro offense, he's making pro reads. This is more important than just a quicker transition. 

And why did Colt McCoy fail I mean the guy had a better college career than Vince Young.

[thebestever6]

20 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Not sure how anyone questions Bakers physical tools (arm, mobility).  Size, yes.  Hand size, don't know. But the others have been demonstrated in spades.

not sure how how you can question "box 2".  Do you know his background?  Dude came in as a non-scholarship walk-on ( due to size) and took the job away from Knight!  

The one thing nobody talks about in term of success is competitiveness.  What made Brady great? Intelligence and competitiveness.  What made Peyton great? Intelligence and competitiveness.  What makes Wilson great? Physical tools and competiveness. Rivers, Elway, Rodgers, Bradshaw, Aikman, Unitas.  

Its not about where you come from, which college you played at or against (Wentz...), what style of offense you played, how tall you are, how fast you are. Those are reasons to draft Mark Sanchez.  

 

Put on the tape, watch him play, see what he does on the field - changing plays, looking defenders off, making throws all over the field - and most importantly, leading and playing his best IN THE CLUTCH.  Learn about how he got to where he is - and then tell me he isn't going to be a starter in the NFL.  

What defenses has Baker played this year? Okay he's done all that but I wanna see him perform on the biggest stage when the lights are the brightest before I go cooku for cocoa puffs and hop on this Band wagon. Will this elevate his draft stock sure but it will also ease my comfort level in drafting him in the top 10.

[thebestever6]

14 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

He has to have learned something from the Oz and Lynch failures, one would think?  I could see Elway of 2 years ago taking Allen.  Maybe even last year. But I think (I hope?), he's been humbled a bit this year.

if I had to put money, at this point, on what Elway will do is go get a vet and roll the dice on Kelly long term.  FA is what Elway does well, I think he probably know that, and he knows that drafting a QB is a crap shoot, and that if he blows it yet again, he and the team are in big trouble.

so, get yourselves ready for Cousins or Eli or Alex or Tyrod or Keenan or  McCarron or......

At the same time we don't want him to be too conservative and take the chalk way out 

A window is about to open in the Afc for the whole conference big ben is in his final days, Brady despite what he and the organiztion say I think are in his final days. The pats got another year after this max with Brady at the helm.

You get ahead of the curve if you draft and season a franchise qb for a year. 

[DiehardBronxFan]

10 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

What defenses has Baker played this year? Okay he's done all that but I wanna see him perform on the biggest stage when the lights are the brightest before I go cooku for cocoa puffs and hop on this Band wagon. Will this elevate his draft stock sure but it will also ease my comfort level in drafting him in the top 10.

What defenses did Wentz play against?  Marriotta?  I agree that seeing them against great defenses makes the evaluation process easier, as does seeing them in pro-style offense.  But we need to be clear that that's all it does.  Doesn't mean they are a better or worse prospect, just means it's easier to evaluate.  Makes the job harder, and yes, somewhat riskier.  But it, in of itself, is not a "knock" on the prospect.

[DiehardBronxFan]

11 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

At the same time we don't want him to be too conservative and take the chalk way out 

A window is about to open in the Afc for the whole conference big ben is in his final days, Brady despite what he and the organiztion say I think are in his final days. The pats got another year after this max with Brady at the helm.

You get ahead of the curve if you draft and season a franchise qb for a year. 

Agree with this.  But we're not gonna get Darnold or Rosen.  So, you either get comfortable with one of the next group, or hope it's Kelly, or go with FA.  Cousins has a lot of years left on him....

[DiehardBronxFan]

7 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

What defenses did Wentz play against?  Marriotta?  I agree that seeing them against great defenses makes the evaluation process easier, as does seeing them in pro-style offense.  But we need to be clear that that's all it does.  Doesn't mean they are a better or worse prospect, just means it's easier to evaluate.  Makes the job harder, and yes, somewhat riskier.  But it, in of itself, is not a "knock" on the prospect.

By the way - did you Baker's game against Ohio State?

[thebestever6]

15 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

What defenses did Wentz play against?  Marriotta?  I agree that seeing them against great defenses makes the evaluation process easier, as does seeing them in pro-style offense.  But we need to be clear that that's all it does.  Doesn't mean they are a better or worse prospect, just means it's easier to evaluate.  Makes the job harder, and yes, somewhat riskier.  But it, in of itself, is not a "knock" on the prospect.

I agree with you they didn't play elite defenses but for my comfort to  draft him in the top 10 if a guy is short I'd like to see him run a pro style offense, or play against good defenses like in the Sec.

[thebestever6]

11 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

By the way - did you Baker's game against Ohio State?

I saw a quarter  and highlights. He looked pretty good but so did the Illinois qb. I just like a larger sample size.

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

To me, these are all pretty minor characteristics to worry about when it comes to QB evaluation, except for size.  He ran a pro-style offense?  Ok, may accelerate the learning curve somewhat.  Who cares? It's. 12-15 year investment. 21 years old?  Who cares? Brock and Lynch were young.  Counted for squat- in fact it was a detriment to being able to come in and "be a professional".

What's important is ability to make all the throws, quick release, accuracy, ability to read defenses, high football IQ, pocket awareness/mobility, and leadership and temperament, along with "adequate" size. 

With the possible exception of size, and "temperament", I'll take Baker over the two West Coast hype machine QB's. if you think he's too short, fine (but please don't say that's why McCoy or Manzel failed, because it isn't). If you're worried about his temperament, fine.  But if Elway can get comfortable with those 2 items, then Baker is you're guy, imho.  But what do I know?

See I'm not so sure. I look at Mayfield I see an under-sized QB from a gimmick offense in a conference that doesn't play defense and has attitude/character problems. All of those things are major red flags. But, also, what do I know 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

This debate is pointless though when Elway ends up drafting Josh Allen...

That has me concerned as well. 

[Scoundrel]

I mean what did Elway learn from Brock? Nothing. He tried to sign him to a long term deal. Then that fails and he goes and attempts to draft a more toolsy Brock. The evidence is he has not learned from mistakes.