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2018 College Prospect Thread

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We really need to make a blockbuster trade for a QB. Either for Luck in the offseason or for a QB in the draft. If we really think Rosen or Darnold can be franchise QBs, give up whatever we need to in order to get them. I don't think the Texans or Eagles are sweating the picks they had to give up for their QBs. That should be priority number 1.

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24 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

We really need to make a blockbuster trade for a QB. Either for Luck in the offseason or for a QB in the draft. If we really think Rosen or Darnold can be franchise QBs, give up whatever we need to in order to get them. I don't think the Texans or Eagles are sweating the picks they had to give up for their QBs. That should be priority number 1.

We can't even afford a Luck trade salary-wise (and we're not nearly complete enough to weaken our roster by making cuts).   

To trade up for Rosen/Darnold, we just don't have the ammo that other buyers have pick wise.    CLE has 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 3rds.   BUF has 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rds.  Jets will likely have a pick much higher than ours so the gap isn't so wide.   

I'd love to see us land 1 of the big 2, but realistically we're sorely outgunned. 

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19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

We can't even afford a Luck trade salary-wise (and we're not nearly complete enough to weaken our roster by making cuts).   

To trade up for Rosen/Darnold, we just don't have the ammo that other buyers have pick wise.    CLE has 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 3 3rds.   BUF has 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 2 3rds.  Jets will likely have a pick much higher than ours so the gap isn't so wide.   

I'd love to see us land 1 of the big 2, but realistically we're sorely outgunned. 

I think the Luck trade can be doable. We can restructure some contracts (or even Lucks, for injury protection) and fit him under the cap. It won't be easy, but it's possible. The draft trade-up might not be as feasible for the reasons you laid out but you never know. Cleveland may go after Cousins and Buffalo could keep Taylor.

Edited by BroncoSojia

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13 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

I think the Luck trade can be doable. We can restructure some contracts (or even Lucks, for injury protection) and fit him under the cap. It won't be easy, but it's possible. The draft trade-up might not be as feasible for the reasons you laid out but you never know. Cleveland may go after Cousins and Buffalo could keep Taylor.

Another GM restructuring totally do-able. Just that Elway never goes that route.   For something that would gut out future cap flexibility it goes against his first principle of not creating cap hell.

I would love to be wrong.   I’m just as tired as everyone else to see this QB gong show for the past 3 seasons (we won despite QB in 2015).   The #’s and Elway’s MO say we are stuck unless we go stopgap.  Or a huge break in the draft with a falling qb.  I really hope I’m wrong. 

Edited by Broncofan

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I think the Luck trade can be doable. We can restructure some contracts (or even Lucks, for injury protection) and fit him under the cap. It won't be easy, but it's possible.

I am hesitant to even entertain the idea of dealing for Luck. He has been so injury prone lately, and if he is available via trade around the draft its going to partially be because he missed this entire season.

And to roll the dice on a guy missing an entire season with a throwing arm injury we have the asking price of 3+ R1 picks to deal with. For a guy with a 9-12 TD/INT ratio in the playoffs and a 10-12 regular season record going back two years. And who has missed 17 games, going on 18, in the past 3 years. I would love to have him, despite these risks, but the cost may be prohibitive. Both contractually and draft pick wise.

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1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I am hesitant to even entertain the idea of dealing for Luck. He has been so injury prone lately, and if he is available via trade around the draft its going to partially be because he missed this entire season.

And to roll the dice on a guy missing an entire season with a throwing arm injury we have the asking price of 3+ R1 picks to deal with. For a guy with a 9-12 TD/INT ratio in the playoffs and a 10-12 regular season record going back two years. And who has missed 17 games, going on 18, in the past 3 years. I would love to have him, despite these risks, but the cost may be prohibitive. Both contractually and draft pick wise.

If you can have Andrew Luck for the next 10 years, what else matters? This would be the ultimate buy-low opportunity on a top-tier, generational talent entering his prime. 

 

I think Indianapolis would have to be clinically insane to part ways with him- but if there is ANY chance you can get him in orange and blue, you do it. 

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If you can have Andrew Luck for the next 10 years, what else matters? This would be the ultimate buy-low opportunity on a top-tier, generational talent entering his prime. 

Luck is already 28, he entered his prime 2 years ago right when he got hurt.

I am not saying I would not do it, just saying that there is a decent chance he doesn't pan out due to injury. And if that's the case, giving up 3 R1 picks would set this franchise back half a decade. Its likely a risk worth taking, but we would have to prepare the distinct possibility that Luck goes the Sam Bradford way, just slowly breaking down.

People minimize the issue. He sustained an injury to his throwing shoulder in 2015. He is still hurting from that, and just two days ago reports indicated that he still feels pain when throwing in practice.

Luck isn't the sure fire guy that people seem to still think. Trading a ransom for him would be a considerable risk at this point.

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I just dont get how we wont be in position for a qb in the draft. The niners trading for jimmy g is so critical. The Browns being a dumpster fire is also huge I think qbs may force trades or go back to school. Giants are a threat to land one. 

Alex Smith will be our next qb he will take less to wanna beat the Chiefs 2 times a year book it. Even if im not thrilled with it.

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8 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I just dont get how we wont be in position for a qb in the draft. The niners trading for jimmy g is so critical. The Browns being a dumpster fire is also huge I think qbs may force trades or go back to school. Giants are a threat to land one. 

Alex Smith will be our next qb he will take less to wanna beat the Chiefs 2 times a year book it. Even if im not thrilled with it.

I get the need for hope but if QB’s go back to school we don’t get more elite ceiling  QB to pick from at our spot.  If there’s a trade 3 or more teams have way more ammunition than we do.  Bills, Giants and Jets are all in play for QB early and have either multiple first round picks (Buf) or will in all likelihood pick well ahead of us so moving up not nearly as difficult for them.   And that’s without counting CLE.  

As far as FA are concerned teams like JAX have a lot more cap space than us.  Unlike us they really are just only a QB away.  Alex Smith won’t need to take less $ to go to a SB contender.  NO finally has the room to keep Brees.   WAS will have a ton of cap space and  will need a QB.  

We have a bottom 5 OL and still can’t cover RB or TE.  And our WR depth sucks after our top 2.  No FA QB who is valuable to a lot of teams is taking a big discount to come to play for us.   Market value sure. But we aren’t a prime destination that merits a big pay cut for top FA anymore. 

Given where our D is a FA QB ready to help makes the most sense.  But counting on a discount is a pipe dream IMO. 

Edited by Broncofan

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I think Elway will go out and get a marquee QB next year.  Not sure how.  But, I don't think the Broncos excel without a top 5 QB.  I think he makes a push for Luck, or Alex Smith.  I am not sure if Cousins is a marquee guy.  

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I don't think its unreasonable for KC to stick with Alex Smith another few years given the way he has played this season. Especially if they go deep in the playoffs. Hell, they may be SB favorites at this point. How do you walk away from a QB who gave you a top 5-8 season and brought the team to the Super Bowl? You don't.

Brees has a void clause in his deal this summer. He loves NO, and means so much to that city, but Elway seems to have great rapport with the HOF QB's of this league and I expect a full court press to convince him that Denver is the best spot for him. And it would be. He is far and away the best option if we remain in win-now mode. We would have to make some cuts or restructures but if we want another trophy, we need to target Brees. We would likely need to cut CJ (+4.5M), Watson (+4.8M), Lynch (+2.6M) and request a restructure from Von (Lets say +2M). That adds  13.9M to our current 11M in cap. If there is a slight cap increase, lets say 3M, then our total cap space would be 27.9M. Brees will demand 25M per season. So even with the above we would be in a tough spot. Maybe we could back load Roby's contract to get his deal down from the 8M cap hold to 4M.

The good part is we can make the above cuts without having to sign other high price FA's. Booker / Henderson and maybe a cheaply re-signed Jamaal can take over for CJ. A R1 pick can take over for Watson (If we sign Brees, we need to reach for a RT to ensure him protection, its on of the few scenarios where I would be OK with reaching for need. Protect the old man).

So, ya, its doable but would be quite difficult and signing him could result in a loss of talent greater than the talent he would bring. But if we want to win another trophy, its Brees all the way.

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1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I don't think its unreasonable for KC to stick with Alex Smith another few years given the way he has played this season. Especially if they go deep in the playoffs. Hell, they may be SB favorites at this point. How do you walk away from a QB who gave you a top 5-8 season and brought the team to the Super Bowl? You don't.

Brees has a void clause in his deal this summer. He loves NO, and means so much to that city, but Elway seems to have great rapport with the HOF QB's of this league and I expect a full court press to convince him that Denver is the best spot for him. And it would be. He is far and away the best option if we remain in win-now mode. We would have to make some cuts or restructures but if we want another trophy, we need to target Brees. We would likely need to cut CJ (+4.5M), Watson (+4.8M), Lynch (+2.6M) and request a restructure from Von (Lets say +2M). That adds  13.9M to our current 11M in cap. If there is a slight cap increase, lets say 3M, then our total cap space would be 27.9M. Brees will demand 25M per season. So even with the above we would be in a tough spot. Maybe we could back load Roby's contract to get his deal down from the 8M cap hold to 4M.

The good part is we can make the above cuts without having to sign other high price FA's. Booker / Henderson and maybe a cheaply re-signed Jamaal can take over for CJ. A R1 pick can take over for Watson (If we sign Brees, we need to reach for a RT to ensure him protection, its on of the few scenarios where I would be OK with reaching for need. Protect the old man).

So, ya, its doable but would be quite difficult and signing him could result in a loss of talent greater than the talent he would bring. But if we want to win another trophy, its Brees all the way.

The fly in the ointment with a Brees scenario - NO is a legit playoff contender, and a top 10 OL with Ramczyk / Armstead at T and Unger C and Warford at G.   Elite WR in Mike Thomas, and deadly RB duo in Ingram-Kamara.   And the big secret yet to come out - their D is now legit.   Pushing top 10 status in DVOA (overall 15, but with arrow pointing up).   Cameron Jordan is a terror on the DL, Sheldon Rankins is a great run stuffing DT with inside push, and Kenny Vaccaro is becoming a Pro Bowl S.   The huge weakness they used to have is now becoming a strength - Marshawn Lattimore is a true, shutdown, 2-3 catch/20 yard day CB1, and their other CB's (Crawley, Von Bell & PJ Williams) are serviceable - they are actually 4th in DVOA vs. the pass.  Their only weakness is vs. the run, as they need another D-lineman, and more ILB depth - but getting Gerald Hodges off waivers was huge for them, and their 2nd year guy Kikaha is progressing.   Frankly, NO is my favorite to win the NFC South this year - they win first with the run, and can lean on Brees/Thomas when they need to, and this team absolutely suffocates the pass.   They are actually closer to be "1-guy away" than we are - it just so happens their 1-2 guys are on DL and ILB for run support - which is a lot easier to find than QB (DL/DT for pass rush, different story).   

And NO is out of cap hell for 2018, with a projected cap # of 35M.  Identical to our $.    Again, when you look at the NO team and take away the labels...they're a legit playoff team, and it's been his home.  I don't see Brees going anywhere.  If NO still sucked, totally different story.  When you look at the fact NO has the $, they are a better team than us roster-wise...man, I don't see it.  Elway would be convincing Brees to leave the team he's stuck it out with just when their window to contend is re-opening to a worse team, with a lot worse OL protection.  Just don't see it at all.

And FTR as to how NO has suddenly gone from perennial sad sack to now-true-legit-contender - it's no coincidence NO's resurgence is all draft related - Rankins/Cameron Jordan on DL, Lattimore at CB, their entire starting secondary all drafted/UDFA - only Jordan is expensive, and worth every penny.   Mike Thomas last year, Ramczyk & Kamara this year - all huge difference makers this year, and all cheap on O.    The KEY?  NO drafted best overall talent - and NOT by pure need over best overall talent.  Do that for 2-3 years, and the pieces all end up fitting.   And it's no coincidence when you look at NO's roster, there are 6 starters/heavy rotation guys from Rd 2-3 taken in 2016-17 (RB Alvin Kamara & Pro Bowl WR Mike Thomas on O, Von Bell nickel CB, Trey Hendrickson 3rd DE, Marcus Williams starting safety on D), and all first rounders that NO accumulated by standing pat or even trading back have all hit big-time - Rankins Rd 1 2016, Ramczyk & Lattimore Rd 1 2017.   All 3 starting and playing big roles.   That's how you get better quickly, and how you get out of cap hell.  Their GM gets major kudos.   Same deal is happening in LAC, it's why their team suddenly looks a lot more complete than ours.  

Elway, please take a page from this...like you used to do.  

Edited by Broncofan

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I don't think this is the best situation for Brees in any way shape or form. He's performed worse outside a dome environment, I have doubts that playing almost every game outdoors, sometimes in cold weather, would yield anywhere near the same types of numbers he can rack up in 10 dome games every year. It's worth considering. Denver has a poor cap situation, I have no idea how they will address the QB position this offseason.

I could see them going after McCarron given he is clearly available (not at current price tag). I don't think we can afford some of the big ticket guys. We have too much money tied up everywhere else.

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One key point we keep pointing to in trades or FA - that QB's will see us as the #1 place to land.  Frankly, with our awful OL, and our clear deficiencies in WR, and our inability to stop TE's/RB's, there's no way a vet QB will think we are just 1 QB away.   

It's crazy to say it - but if you looked at teams that are doing well but with meh QB's (JAX) or teams whose QB's might leave soon (NO, WAS, BUF if they part ways), if you really take a hard, honest look at the talent on those teams - and more importantly, the quality of their OL, we are so far behind in terms of actual O talent, we are kidding ourselves if we think we are the #1 destination.

NO has Mike Thomas and an elite run game/top 5-10 OL (top 5 by PFF standards) and as covered in another thread has a D that is actually legit, and young/cheap - so could be top 10 by year's end, actually now #15 so no longer bad (and getting better).  BUF has a top 10-12 OL and a great top 5 D as well.  JAX is by far and away the most complete dominant D, and they have Allen Robinson, Leonard Fournette for 2018 - and $ to spend on upgrading the OL more and QB, with literally no other holes to fill.   

We'll still be a place FA QB's will put on their top 5 destinations for sure.  But we are no longer the #1 destination.  And for a QB, surrounding O talent is a huge factor - and there, we suffer badly...even behind BUF - they have Lesean McCoy, and added Kelvin Benjamin (who's not elite, not even at DT's level IMO, but he's far better than what they have now), and Charles Clay returning as a top 6-8 TE....and of course, a much better OL.   NO, JAX, even WAS (with that OL, those TE's and young WR's), are going to look more attractive in terms of overall team talent, and much better O talent.   

If we didn't have DT, Sanders, and Paradis - we'd be called a sad sack O talent-wise (RB is easy to replace, unless you are a top 5 back like Fournette), and for a QB, we suck compared to the other OL's on those teams.  

@AnAngryAmerican pointed this out in the offseason, and while I didn't think it was to the extreme he went on about at the time, the reality is his take on how other teams probably view us talent-wise (as just middle of the pack) is spot on now.   We still have a great GM in Elway (just please stop drafting to win-now, 1-guy-away, need-now-over-best-overall-talent, please), and he's changed styles when what he's done stopped working.  His post SB-style clearly isn't working, so time for him to see that and then change back into the 2011-13 build-best-overall-talent-team approach.     Part of that also means that we're not going to be able to draw a QB by telling them we are just 1-QB away - they can see we need a lot more help on OL and 3rd WR on O alone (let alone our ILB for run support/pass coverage) before we're truly 1 guy away.

Edited by Broncofan

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On 10/31/2017 at 2:23 PM, BroncoSojia said:

We really need to make a blockbuster trade for a QB. Either for Luck in the offseason or for a QB in the draft. If we really think Rosen or Darnold can be franchise QBs, give up whatever we need to in order to get them. I don't think the Texans or Eagles are sweating the picks they had to give up for their QBs. That should be priority number 1.

If they can swing it for Luck, I would trade for and shelve him till next season...let him get healthy and ready to rock 2018. 

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