2018 College Prospect Thread

[champ11]

Cannot trade a future first round pick with where this franchise is at, IMO. That could be top 10 again next year 

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Cannot trade a future first round pick with where this franchise is at, IMO. That could be top 10 again next year 

Yes, we could be - and that's the other reason why the only deal with a future 1st involves moving from 1.x to 1.1/1.2.    

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

It's not an exact bible, but the trade value chart that most teams follow, it costs a top 15 pick to move up from 1.5/1.6 to 1.1/1.2.   The presumption is that you are getting the top difference maker instead of the next tier of very good but not-elite difference maker.   Then you add in the discount in value that other teams give future picks (they are never valued the same way as the above chart shows, that's for current year picks - ppl don't know where they will end up, and they delay getting help to the team by another year).   

HOU & KC had to pay a future 1st because they were moving from late 20's to early teen's - but they were also teams that felt they were literally a QB away.  As we've all discussed, we need QB 1st...but we need so much more, a rookie like Mayfield isn't getting us to the playoffs on his own - and so that future 1st is insanely valuable - better to spend it to move up to a true elite-tier pick, and not mess around.   As we can see with KC, if they make the playoffs, it's a 20's pick - if they miss, it's a late teens pick.    Which if Mahomes is the guy, is OK.   Watson has worked out better than anyone could have hoped, but the flip side is that HOU has given up a potential top 5 pick - which is exactly what we are facing.    Given Mayfield has Q marks and we need so much more than QB to address our team's needs to be legit contenders, can't see this as a good move.   I'd rather we invest in the QB we are sure on, if you are going to go that hard - otherwise, that 2019 1st could be the 2nd Von we need, or the next elite WR/LT we can use to upgrade our O (and move Bolles to RT and have 2 T's long-term, etc).   It's fine if we are certain on our guy - but the fact Mayfield is a mid-teens guy at best, that's already a huge flag that he's far from certain.   

It's worth noting that when we traded with SEA to get Lynch, we went pretty much off the trade value chart above, give or take about 20 points.   And most deals that involve moving up have worked with this framework...except for the RGIII deal, or the Ricky Williams/Herschel Walker deal.  So the above chart helps gauge likely value trades, realizing that future picks have less trade value in obtaining return than present-year.

Add it up, I do not seeing us deal a 1st unless Elway has to have Darnold/Rosen.    Trading our current year 2018th early 4th to move into late Rd 1 from 2.x, while I'm not crazy about in general given the other talent at QB that will likely be there, I could see as being something Elway would consider.    That would be to get the 5th year option for whichever QB we are targeting, FWIW (although if Mayfield plays well at the BCS and tests well at the Combine, agreed we can forget about late 1st as his landing spot - I'm hoping he tests out just "OK" and Georgia's SEC-tested D shows flaws that helps him fall, because trading into mid-1st is just too pricey - our future 2nds don't have enough value, and a future 1st should NOT be dealt away unless you are moving way up to the elite top-of-the-draft pick, if at all).

[jsthomp2007]

I don't even know if Rosen or Darnold have declared, or going to declare...if they don't that puts Allen and Mayfield at the top of the QB world.  

[iLikeDefense]

12 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I don't even know if Rosen or Darnold have declared, or going to declare...if they don't that puts Allen and Mayfield at the top of the QB world.  

I believe Darnold will make his announcement after his bowl game, not sure on Rosen.

[jsthomp2007]

2 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

I believe Darnold will make his announcement after his bowl game, not sure on Rosen.

We will see.  Kind of puts the Broncos in a bind if that happens.  I would suspect if they both stay another year in college, the Broncos will have to go after a veteran.  Maybe even a trade...straight up DT for Andrew Luck and a 5th round pick  (that is if Luck has a better than average chance of returning from his injury).  

[bMiller031]

3 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

We will see.  Kind of puts the Broncos in a bind if that happens.  I would suspect if they both stay another year in college, the Broncos will have to go after a veteran.  Maybe even a trade...straight up DT for Andrew Luck and a 5th round pick  (that is if Luck has a better than average chance of returning from his injury).  

Wtf trade of the year. 

[jsthomp2007]

17 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Wtf trade of the year. 

It would be awesome! Right? 

[Broncofan]

Josh Rosen went out with the Seniors on Senior Day for UCLA.  He’s all but declared.  

[Scoundrel]

Speculation is Darnold will declare also. 

[Scoundrel]

We aren't getting Rosen or Darnold. Browns and Giants end up with 1 and 2 and aren't moving away from QB. We should set our hopes and sights in my opinion on the 8 following players:

Saquon Barkley: Elite talent at a position where we have already passable players. Could transform an offense.

Bradley Chubb: Best pass rusher in the draft all around defender against the run and pass. Where does he play in a 3-4 though? And what would that say about Demarcus Walker? (Shouldn't stop us cus BPA is BPA)

Quenton Nelson: Another elite talent at a high position of need but what some could argue could be filled later in the draft. Although that player likely wouldn't be this good. 

Minkah Fitzpatrick: All around DB, Talib's days are numbered and Denver needs to stay three CB strong. Could also play in the box and cover those TE's and RB's we have been struggling against. 

Connor Williams: Coming off injury but has shown he has regained form. Arguably the top LT in the draft (some may like Orlando Brown more). Fills a position of need at RT or LT and we can be set for a long time with he and Bolles.

Baker Mayfield: There would be a lot of criticism taking him this early but if he is your guy you go get him. Good arm, accuracy, passionate leader. All the tools to succeed. Would be breaking the mold of a QB top ten due to size. 

Lamar Jackson: Has improved as a passer and is dynamite as a runner. Does he have the ability to keep progressing and translate to the pro game? Deshaun Watson comps says yes, RG3 comps say no. 

Roquan Smith: Super talented all around linebacker and a stand up leader at a position many will say Elway doesn't value as much as most (although rumors were he was targeting Shazier and Mosley in that draft). Would fill a position of need for years however.

[paul-mac]

I don't think we're going to pick in the top 5 anymore. I think yesterday's win will give us confidence to go an beat Indianapolis on Thursday, we're a better team than them, we just haven't played well lately. Then we get the Redskins on the road coming off a long week. Difficult road trip but I think we probably go 1-1 over the last two games, Washington away and the fading Chiefs at home. That would put us at 6-10 and probably picking 7th or 8th and Vance Joseph keeps his job.

 

I haven't started watching anyone yet but I'll say this, if Lamar Jackson and/or Baker Mayfield are there and Elway sees them as the guy, then don't be afraid to pull the trigger. Do we try and move up for Darnold or Rosen? Probably the asking price would be too steep, but then the Eagles certainly don't regret giving heaven and earth to get Carson Wentz. One thing that could make life interesting if if the Giants get a win and either SF or Indy ends up picking 2nd. Both of those teams already have their QB so it becomes open season for someone to move up and land whoever the Browns pass on. Also wouldn't be shocked if the Browns take Barkley at 1 and then try to use the Texans pick to get one of the two QBs, especially if they like them both equally and are willing to trade up a spot or two from the Texans pick.

[Scoundrel]

3 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

I don't think we're going to pick in the top 5 anymore. I think yesterday's win will give us confidence to go an beat Indianapolis on Thursday, we're a better team than them, we just haven't played well lately. Then we get the Redskins on the road coming off a long week. Difficult road trip but I think we probably go 1-1 over the last two games, Washington away and the fading Chiefs at home. That would put us at 6-10 and probably picking 7th or 8th and Vance Joseph keeps his job.

 

I haven't started watching anyone yet but I'll say this, if Lamar Jackson and/or Baker Mayfield are there and Elway sees them as the guy, then don't be afraid to pull the trigger. Do we try and move up for Darnold or Rosen? Probably the asking price would be too steep, but then the Eagles certainly don't regret giving heaven and earth to get Carson Wentz. One thing that could make life interesting if if the Giants get a win and either SF or Indy ends up picking 2nd. Both of those teams already have their QB so it becomes open season for someone to move up and land whoever the Browns pass on. Also wouldn't be shocked if the Browns take Barkley at 1 and then try to use the Texans pick to get one of the two QBs, especially if they like them both equally and are willing to trade up a spot or two from the Texans pick.

Eagles also were able to recoup the first they gave away by trading Bradford (doubt they knew they would get that when they made the trade up for Wentz, so in theory they were willing to do it regardless). But I don't see us going up to get Darnold or Rosen.

[paul-mac]

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

Eagles also were able to recoup the first they gave away by trading Bradford (doubt they knew they would get that when they made the trade up for Wentz, so in theory they were willing to do it regardless). But I don't see us going up to get Darnold or Rosen.

 

How much would it cost us to go from 8 up to 2? That's the exact same move the Eagles made, and it cost their 1st, 3rd and 4th rounders, next year's 1st and the following year's 2nd. People will point to Philadelphia hitting on Wentz, but then that only works because they've got a talented roster around him and he's played well. The Redskins pulled a similar move and it killed their franchise for half a decade.

 

I still kinda think that a veteran QB is the way to go for this team for now. Eli Manning would look good in orange, and even if Kirk Cousins is too expensive at $30m/year, Tyrod Taylor would make a good addition. Either of these guys should be paired with a 2nd/3rd round pick.

[broncofan48]

The one thing that is going to affect the top of the draft more than anything is Cousins IMO.  I really haven't heard/read anything that mentions what his intentions are.  I personally think he stays in Washington.  IF, and its a big if, Hue is still in Cleveland and wanting to win to keep his job Cousins could be in play which would shake the whole top of the draft up.

 

Anyone have any insights into Kirk's thought process and Washington's going into this next offseason?

[BroncosFan2010]

Connor Williams is starting to grow on me. Not quite the talent as Quenton Nelson, but at a FAR greater position of need. McGovern has shown a bit the past few games, but our OT position is still a giant hindrance. I would rank our needs as:

1. QB

 

2. OT

 

3. Everything else

Connor has near elite talent. Great body, long, athletic, good technician, great mirror. Not a bull in the run game but plays hard enough. I think Connor at LT allows Bolles to play his natural position of RT where run blocking is slightly more important than pass pro, and that's his game.