Hit/Miss Draft Study

[Matts4313]

Not mine, this is /u/JPAnalyst from Reddit:

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This is how I calculated career score which is used in the success rate %:

• 1 point for every season as the primary starter
• 1 point for every season they make the Pro Bowl
• 1 point for every 1st team All-Pro (the assumption is they were also a Pro Bowler, so they would accumulate 2 points)
• 1/3 point for any season as a non-starter

Very simple, and again…arbitrary. You might think my weights and scoring are wrong, and that’s ok, directionally the results would be similar using a number of different metrics and point values. I still consider this project a WIP and will likely tweak over time.

So, what determines if a pick is a hit or a miss? It depends on when they were drafted. I decided not to get too granular. I have three sets of thresholds.

• If a player is selected in the Top10, the threshold is 7.5 points
• Selected in Round 1, picks 11+, 5.5 points
• Selected in Round 2, 3.5 points

I wanted the thresholds to give me a relatively similar success rate on aggregate across the three draft ranges. The success rates across all positions for picks 1-10 with a 7.5 threshold was 56%, the rest of Round 1 at 5.5 was 54%, Round 2 with a 3.5 threshold was 57%.

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NFL Positional Success Rate

 

Picks 1-10

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	37	43%
WR	35	49%
RB	39	54%
TE	4	N/A
C	0	N/A
G	11	45%
T	38	66%
DT	24	71%
DE	41	46%
LB	37	59%
DB	42	69%
Total	308	56%

Round 1, Picks 11+

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	30	43%
WR	76	50%
RB	77	40%
TE	23	65%
C	12	92%
G	34	62%
T	59	58%
DT	52	50%
DE	84	54%
LB	64	55%
DB	99	58%
Total	615	54%

Round 2

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	35	46%
WR	127	47%
RB	98	45%
TE	51	53%
C	28	79%
G	53	66%
T	70	59%
DT	62	50%
DE	102	54%
LB	152	63%
DB	211	63%
Total	998	57%