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First Round QBs

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Adam Schefter tweeted out a graphic earlier today about how there’s been only 1 Super Bowl winning QB taken at #1 overall since 1999. That got me thinking and I did a thing..

QBs Taken in the First Round (2000-2017)

 

First Overall

Been to a SB: 3/11

Won a SB: 1/11

Bust: 3/11     Bust rate: 27%

 

Picks 2-5

Been to a SB: 1/10

Won a SB: 0/10

Bust: 7/10     Bust rate: 70%

 

Picks 6-15

Been to a SB: 2/9

Won a SB: 2/9

Bust: 5/9     Bust rate: 56%

 

Picks 16-Rest of the First Round

Been to a SB: 3/15

Won a SB: 2/15

Bust: 11/15     Bust rate: 73% 

 

Total First Round

Been to a SB: 9/45

Won a SB: 5/45

Bust: 21/45     Bust rate: 47%

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13 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said:

It’s all a crapshoot. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take Burrow

I feel like the data is saying that if there is a QB worthy of the top pick, you should take him because that’s where the best success rate is

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Oh I’ve seen some people saying that because only 1 QB had won a super bowl taken 1st overall that it’s not worth taking a QB that high, which is ridiculous. 

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1 hour ago, BengalsBite said:

I feel like the data is saying that if there is a QB worthy of the top pick, you should take him because that’s where the best success rate is

Throw in the hidden fact that teams drafting #1 generally really suck.  They pick first for a reason.  They have a much longer road to plow.  I don't think our situation is as good as Indy's was (roster wise) when they took Luck, but we are in better shape than many others.  And if it weren't for Brady/Belichick being so dominant over that same span, maybe more different teams make the Super Bowl

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1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

And if it weren't for Brady/Belichick being so dominant over that same span, maybe more different teams make the Super Bowl

I kinda looked this up too and, since 2000, 1st overall QBs made an appearance in the SB 17.5% of the time. Brady himself was 22.5% of appearances lol. If you take out Brady, 1st overall picks have made it 22.5% of the time. The same as Brady. 
 

So basically add the 17.5% SB appearance rate to the 73% chance of him not being a bust and it’s the highest percentage chance of making a SB that you can get in a single draft pick. Then add on an extra 5% or so because this is Burrow we’re talking about, not your average first overall QB. 

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2 hours ago, johndeere1707 said:

Oh I’ve seen some people saying that because only 1 QB had won a super bowl taken 1st overall that it’s not worth taking a QB that high, which is ridiculous. 

There's lies, damn lies, and then statistics.  You can make the same data fit a lot of different narratives.

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1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

There's lies, damn lies, and then statistics.

Hey!! Don’t bash my beloved statistics!! Lol

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15 hours ago, BengalsBite said:

Adam Schefter tweeted out a graphic earlier today about how there’s been only 1 Super Bowl winning QB taken at #1 overall since 1999. That got me thinking and I did a thing..

 

Adam schefter might be a tad bored and making one last push for us to consider the mother trade

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He also showed that the #1 pick had by far the lowest bust rate.  Using Super Bowl wins is a false narrative because of Brady.  But thia logic, no one should draft a QB until round 6.  You can make data say whatever you want it too if you dig deep enough. 

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I think the take away is that while you don't need to get your qb at one to be successful, it's your best bet for a good one.

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