BengalsBite Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Adam Schefter tweeted out a graphic earlier today about how there’s been only 1 Super Bowl winning QB taken at #1 overall since 1999. That got me thinking and I did a thing.. QBs Taken in the First Round (2000-2017) First Overall Been to a SB: 3/11 Won a SB: 1/11 Bust: 3/11 Bust rate: 27% Picks 2-5 Been to a SB: 1/10 Won a SB: 0/10 Bust: 7/10 Bust rate: 70% Picks 6-15 Been to a SB: 2/9 Won a SB: 2/9 Bust: 5/9 Bust rate: 56% Picks 16-Rest of the First Round Been to a SB: 3/15 Won a SB: 2/15 Bust: 11/15 Bust rate: 73% Total First Round Been to a SB: 9/45 Won a SB: 5/45 Bust: 21/45 Bust rate: 47% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Nix Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 It’s all a crapshoot. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take Burrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalsBite Posted April 6, 2020 Author Share Posted April 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said: It’s all a crapshoot. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take Burrow I feel like the data is saying that if there is a QB worthy of the top pick, you should take him because that’s where the best success rate is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Nix Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Oh I’ve seen some people saying that because only 1 QB had won a super bowl taken 1st overall that it’s not worth taking a QB that high, which is ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INbengalfan Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 hour ago, BengalsBite said: I feel like the data is saying that if there is a QB worthy of the top pick, you should take him because that’s where the best success rate is Throw in the hidden fact that teams drafting #1 generally really suck. They pick first for a reason. They have a much longer road to plow. I don't think our situation is as good as Indy's was (roster wise) when they took Luck, but we are in better shape than many others. And if it weren't for Brady/Belichick being so dominant over that same span, maybe more different teams make the Super Bowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalsBite Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 hour ago, INbengalfan said: And if it weren't for Brady/Belichick being so dominant over that same span, maybe more different teams make the Super Bowl I kinda looked this up too and, since 2000, 1st overall QBs made an appearance in the SB 17.5% of the time. Brady himself was 22.5% of appearances lol. If you take out Brady, 1st overall picks have made it 22.5% of the time. The same as Brady. So basically add the 17.5% SB appearance rate to the 73% chance of him not being a bust and it’s the highest percentage chance of making a SB that you can get in a single draft pick. Then add on an extra 5% or so because this is Burrow we’re talking about, not your average first overall QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 2 hours ago, johndeere1707 said: Oh I’ve seen some people saying that because only 1 QB had won a super bowl taken 1st overall that it’s not worth taking a QB that high, which is ridiculous. There's lies, damn lies, and then statistics. You can make the same data fit a lot of different narratives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalsBite Posted April 7, 2020 Author Share Posted April 7, 2020 1 hour ago, THE DUKE said: There's lies, damn lies, and then statistics. Hey!! Don’t bash my beloved statistics!! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INbengalfan Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 15 hours ago, BengalsBite said: Adam Schefter tweeted out a graphic earlier today about how there’s been only 1 Super Bowl winning QB taken at #1 overall since 1999. That got me thinking and I did a thing.. Adam schefter might be a tad bored and making one last push for us to consider the mother trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 He also showed that the #1 pick had by far the lowest bust rate. Using Super Bowl wins is a false narrative because of Brady. But thia logic, no one should draft a QB until round 6. You can make data say whatever you want it too if you dig deep enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 I think the take away is that while you don't need to get your qb at one to be successful, it's your best bet for a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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