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Looking at WR Fits in the 2020 NFL Draft/Jonathan Wood


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Looking at WR Fits in the 2020 NFL Draft

5fb7dabcc9ddb6eb415d87bdfbe6736d?s=16&d= Johnathan Wood | April 7th, 2020

https://dabearsblog.com/2020/looking-at-wr-fits-in-the-2020-nfl-draft

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Last week I identified wide receiver as Chicago’s biggest roster need heading into the draft, so today I want to look at wide receivers in the draft and see which ones might be a fit for this offense. I’ve done previous work looking at wide receivers Andy Reid brought in to Kansas City, where he trained Matt Nagy. When examining their Combine performance, all typically excelled at three drills:

  • 40 yard dash: 4.51 seconds or better
  • Vertical jump: 35.5 inches or higher
  • Broad jump: 10 feet or longer

Receivers who were targeted for that offense usually hit at least 2 of those 3 thresholds, with many of them hitting all 3. And this seems to hold true in Chicago, at least in terms of the wide receivers in which the Bears have invested most. Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel all hit at least 2 of 3 thresholds. 2019 4th round pick Riley Ridley only hit 1/3, and 2018 7th round pick Javon Wims 0/3. (A day 3 pick is less of an investment.). Given that the Bears are likely considering WR in round 2 again this year, I think it’s worth looking at what players who might be good physical fits for this offense.

As always, these test results are not a way to say how good or bad a wide receiver will be, but simply if they match the physical characteristics of previous players who have excelled in this offense.


2+ Thresholds Hit

Unlike at tight end, this is a very athletic wide receiver class; 31 of the 45 WRs who did at least 2 of these 3 tests at the Combine hit at least 2 of the three thresholds. Their results are shown in the table below (missed thresholds are shown in red).

 

WR-2-3-thresholds.png?resize=912%2C1207

A few thoughts:

  • Not all misses are the same. Jumping 34.5″ isn’t that far off from the 35.5″ threshold, nor is 119″ that far from 120″. A 4.58, on the other hand, is appreciably slower than a 4.51. I had to set a threshold somewhere, so I set it as the historical Combine average at the position.
  • Given that I’ve already addressed Chicago’s need to add speed at the skill position spots this offseason, I’m particularly interested in players with a fast 40 yard dash time. There are plenty of options here who could be targets for them throughout the draft. Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk, or Jalen Reagor could fit the bill. Reagor didn’t run a great 40, but he was clocked at 22.6 mph in game last year, which would have been the fastest in the NFL. Aiyuk likewise didn’t run a great 40 but was clocked as one of the 10 fastest players in college football last year in terms of maximum speed reached in a game.
  • If the Bears trade back and are looking round 3 or 4, players like Chase Claypool and Devin Duvernay provide that speed element, and late round options like Quez Watkins, John Hightower, or Darnell Mooney could be options.

0-1 Threshold Hit

The following 24 players hit 0 or 1 thresholds at the Combine, though for many of them it was more about not doing drills than testing poorly. Again, missed thresholds are shown in red.

WR-0-1-thresholds.png?resize=912%2C964

A few thoughts:

  • Not all threshold misses are created the same. Antonio Gibson is an intriguing mid-round option who just missed both jump thresholds but is blazing fast. He fits the bill for what the Bears need from a physical perspective.
  • There are also several intriguing names who didn’t test, including Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, KJ Hamler, and Van Jefferson. Van Jefferson was timed as the fastest player at the Senior Bowl, and Hamler was recorded running 21.8 mph during a game at Penn State, which would have been among the 10 fastest speeds in the NFL last year.

The Bears need to add speed this offseason, and have a glaring need for a 3rd starting WR next to Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Luckily for them, this draft is full of fast receivers who could fit that bill.

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1 minute ago, WindyCity said:

Reagor can play on the outside which is nice.

Hamler has truly elite speed.

 

I would be fine with either.

KJ Hamler is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill in this draft (no I'm not saying he's Tyreek Hill).

Robinson

Miller

Hamler

Ridley

Wims

 

Graham

Burton

 

Montgomery

Cohen

 

Not awful.

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28 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

As you all know I love Hamler as he's a speed freak but he can also fill in at PR when Cohen's eventually gone.

However Chase Claypool isn't as fast as Hamler or Raegor, but man, considering he's 6'4 and 245 pounds and still ran a 4.42, I'm good with him at 43. 

I like him a lot as a replacement for Burton...

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53 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

However Chase Claypool isn't as fast as Hamler or Raegor, but man, considering he's 6'4 and 245 pounds and still ran a 4.42, I'm good with him at 43. 

I like Claypool a lot. I think if had a little better quarterback play, you'd hear his name more often.

24 minutes ago, G08 said:

I like him a lot as a replacement for Burton...

Yeah, but if you keep him as a WR he's such a size mismatch...

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28 minutes ago, G08 said:

I like him a lot as a replacement for Burton...

I think with a guy like Claypool, you can do whatever you want with him. Pining him as a TE or WR isn't the best use of his talent level. I think he can be really special and you can use him as a complete mismatch wherever you want- X, Y, U, etc.

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I'm VERY opposed getting Hamler...

No tangible metrics for his speed because he sat out the combine, he looked concussed after taking hits in college via his tiny size and he body catches.  I'd add that his speed isn't there on tape... If he was a deep burner, he wouldn't be getting repeatedly caught on otherwise breakaway plays. He's winning via acceleration, NOT top speed.. and I'm not remotely interested in a dude that small unless he's actually got above and beyond elite level speed.

 

Reagor I'm also lower on than most...... hearing he had the fastest speed on field helps squash those concerns, however, and explains how, even with a poor 40, he was hitting break away plays into points more effectively.  I'm not sure he's going to actually be there, when we draft however.... and he has drop concerns like the guy I actually want.

Mims is the guy I'd want, and actually be wiling to move up for.... but I also can't see any scenario where we lose even more draft capital moving up in the draft. Like Reagor he has some drop concerns, but this kid absolutely crushed the senior bowl and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ends up the best WR out of this class. Elite size, speed, agility, body control, and potential. Put him with Robinson for a few years to learn NFL route running tricks and this kid could end up being a top 5 NFL talent.

My dream draft would be getting Mims in mid 1, then trading back into the draft for Claypool as a "move TE", and Antonio Gibson as a RB 2/3.....  That'd be 3 people over 6ft tall, all of whom are sub 4.4 (or in Claypool's case just above but at TE size)..... The downside is I can't figure out how to move up for Mims without spending both of our 2nds, and I think we NEED at least one OL out of those two picks.

Edited by Epyon
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2 hours ago, G08 said:

KJ Hamler is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill in this draft (no I'm not saying he's Tyreek Hill).

He is also the closest thing to Tavon Austin we have seen in a while too...and again I am not saying he is going to be that guy but given his size I really worry that if your one trick doesn't work in the NFL what else can you do?

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Van Jefferson is my guy at WR this year...doesn't have the numbers from the combine but was clocked with a higher top speed than Mims at the senior bowl...add that speed to his route running which is so advanced at this point and he can double move his way to being a quality deep threat even if his Florida numbers don't represent that...I've said it before but there is a little bit of OBJ in his game...given the depth at WR this season he could be there late 3rd...it's an awesome class.

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12 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

Van Jefferson is my guy at WR this year...doesn't have the numbers from the combine but was clocked with a higher top speed than Mims at the senior bowl...add that speed to his route running which is so advanced at this point and he can double move his way to being a quality deep threat even if his Florida numbers don't represent that...I've said it before but there is a little bit of OBJ in his game...given the depth at WR this season he could be there late 3rd...it's an awesome class.

More of a Van Morrison guy myself

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

He is also the closest thing to Tavon Austin we have seen in a while too...and again I am not saying he is going to be that guy but given his size I really worry that if your one trick doesn't work in the NFL what else can you do?

I think he could be Hollywood Brown type of player. He worked more in the slot, but he runs real routes and makes plays downfield.

If I remember Austin was more bubble screens and jets sweeps in that WV offense.

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Van Jefferson is my guy at WR this year...doesn't have the numbers from the combine but was clocked with a higher top speed than Mims at the senior bowl...add that speed to his route running which is so advanced at this point and he can double move his way to being a quality deep threat even if his Florida numbers don't represent that...I've said it before but there is a little bit of OBJ in his game...given the depth at WR this season he could be there late 3rd...it's an awesome class.

Jefferson was a good player at UF but he reminds me of a faster Riley Ridley coming out.

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