Which teams will be the biggest risers and fallers in 2020?

[Jakuvious]

I post about this just about every year. Last year the Bears were by far the most likely team to regress. A couple stats point really solidly towards regression or progression to the mean, as they tend to be either uncontrollable by the team, or virtually random year to year (those things being strength of schedule, expected W/L versus actual W/L, and record in close games.) Looking purely at those things...

The Patriots and Cowboys had the weakest schedules in the league, with the Eagles and Bills not too far behind. The Texans (7.8 expected wins), Seahawks (8.2), and Packers (9.7) had the highest positive variances in W/L versus expected W/L. The Texans went 8-3 in one score games, Seattle went 10-2 (absolutely absurd), and the Packers went 8-1.

With that, your most likely teams to fall are probably the Pats, Seahawks, Packers, and Texans.

On the flipside, the toughest strength of schedules were all NFC West teams. So while that's normally predictive of a rise, the whole division can't get better, and they're still all stuck playing against each other, so yeah. The Browns have the next toughest after the NFC West. The Chargers had an almost identical point differential to the Texans, but lost 5 more games, mostly because they went 2-9 in close games. I would say that can't continue, but the Chargers seem to live in weird places in that regard. They buck so many of these trends year to year. Cowboys had a huge point differential, and way underperformed their expected win/loss, going 1-6 in close games, but given their strength of schedule, it's tough to weigh them being unlucky in close games with them really just having beaten up on trash all year. The Bucs only slightly underperformed their expected W/L, but a positive point differential and 2-6 record in close games points to improvement. The Lions are an interesting one as well, going 3-8-1 in close games, with a huge losing streak, but being in virtually all of their games throughout the season. Part of me thinks this is just crap coaching, but here you are.

So your most likely teams to rise would likely be the Chargers and the Buccaneers. Maybe the Lions.

The Cowboys are a weird one that could swing either way. They had a huge point differential so it looks like they underachieved, but they lost a lot of close games against good teams and beat up on bad competition. Might mean they trend up winning a more normal percentage of those close games, might mean they stay pat or even regress if they have less bad teams to beat up on throughout the year. We'll see.

Again, this is all just statistical trends. Not factoring in personnel changes, coaching changes, etc. Factoring in that, I think the Pats regressing and Bucs ascending seem doubly likely, given the QB change. The Packers overachieving matches what I think we saw on the field, so that lines up IMO. The Texans regressing certainly seems possible, but with that kind of QB you never want to bet on a large fall. Similar deal with Seattle, though dear god that close game record is absurd. Their win/loss differential was almost equal to their point differential. +6 wins, +7 points. The Chargers throw a bit of a wrench in things though, going from Rivers to...Taylor? I think they probably still improve, but not by leaps and bounds. Maybe just to 7-9 or something.

 

Trends obviously would also show top teams falling and bottom teams rising. But I'm not sure stating that Baltimore probably won't win 14 games and Cincy probably won't lose 14 is really meaningful. Baltimore will still probably be great. If they fall from 14 wins to 12 wins or something, I'm not sure I'd say that counts for the spirit of a thread like this.

[Shanedorf]

49 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Looking purely at those things...

thx for write up, greatly appreciated...
if I guessed the Packers O/U win total for 2020 will be 10 wins, do those things agree ?

[Jakuvious]

23 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

thx for write up, greatly appreciated...
if I guessed the Packers O/U win total for 2020 will be 10 wins, do those things agree ?

10 would be a reasonable estimate. Something like 9.5 or 10 from an O/U would reflect what the Packers most likely 2019 result would've been. 9.7 expected wins, a more reasonable 5-4 or so in close games would've put them at a 10-6 record. Their SoS leaned on the easier side, but nothing out of the norm, and predicting next year's SoS is foolish (though the first place ranking means it will likely be somewhat tougher than the third place ranking.)

But assuming a relatively similar quality of roster and individual performance, yeah, somewhere in that area would be right. Would be reasonable to lean on the higher side due to QB play, too. One thing that can buck some of these things is quality of QB play. Sometimes teams win a lot of close games not out of luck, but because 9 times out of 10 they have the better or "more clutch" QB.

[Jakuvious]

One bit I did fail to mention in my (somewhat long) post was injury luck. There aren't any really standout outliers there, this year, as there sometimes are. 2018 Bears and Bills were crazy healthy, 2018 Redskins were insanely unlucky, nothing on that level from 2019. But the Vikings did, by a decent margin, have the fewest games lost to injury last year. About a dozen teams were clumped together at the top though, so near clear teams that should benefit from the likelihood of better health next year. Buffalo and Arizona got a bit lucky in a lack of high value injuries, but overall health for each was close enough to middle of the league.

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

The Texans went 8-3 in one score games

great post. I am surprised it took 4 pages for anyone to even mention the Texans. They are going to have a rocky year. 

Watson single handily won them 5-6 games last year. I really believe that Bill is going to lose the locker room this year. Even before the Hopkins trade, I think he was starting to lose Watson. I mean, BOB wanted to punt down 17 in a playoff game very late in the third quarter, after going for it on 4th and 5 on their own side of the field up 17 in the first quarter. Watson had to burn a TO to not punt on the KC 40ish down 17 in a playoff game, and was pissed doing it. You could tell he wasn't happy with BOB. Then BOB traded away their second best offensive player for peanuts. 

Their defense is trending downward fast. None of the players they had from a few years ago are still there or are the same caliber. Their secondary has been bad/not good for a few years now. I think when the team starts to quit on BOB there will be some really ugly losses and it will spiral fast. Especially because the fans HATE bob right now and are going to turn on him really quick on the first sign of trouble. 

Texans have continued to somehow find their way into the playoffs year after year despite BOBs moronic game management, because Watson is THAT DUDE. Feels unlikely to continue. 

 

Teams I think will improve:

- Cardinals - murray was as advertised last year. they need to improve their secondary/defense, but they will be able to play with anyteam and keep any game close

- Colts - Young defense, added a top player in Deforest Buckner. Really good OL should do wonders for rivers. They were a bad football team for long stretches last year because brisset was mediocre and they had a lot of injuries. Just a funky year for them with Luck retiring right before the season (feels like a lifetime ago). I think they are more talented/better coached than they showed last year

- Raiders - They were finally not mediocre in 2019. Seems like gruden has done a good job of changing the culture in the building. I expect them to add a lot to their defense in this draft again. I don't think they will have a huge jump up in win total this year just because I think their record last yearwas better than it should have been. They were not mediocre but they were still bad in a lot of ways in a few different games. I think they will be a much better team overall but may finish 8-8 or thereabouts (7-9 last year)

- the broncos wont get so unlucky again next year, will they? the first few weeks for them were brutal. Fangio should have that defense playing lights out in year 2

[notthatbluestuff]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

great post. I am surprised it took 4 pages for anyone to even mention the Texans.

I listed the Texans in the first post of this thread. 

[N4L]

3 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

I listed the Texans in the first post of this thread. 

But you also listed the 49ers so your list was instantly invalidated 

[notthatbluestuff]

1 minute ago, N4L said:

But you also listed the 49ers so your list was instantly invalidated 

Touché. 

[Hunter2_1]

Statistical feats like the Seahawks being 10-2 in one-score games require further extrapolation. I.e when you have certain players, like Russ Wilson, you can see a clearer picture. For that reason I dont expect SEA to regress, maybe one game either way. Could probably say the same for Houston with Watson.

 

I think PIT might rise actually...

Edited April 13, 2020 by Hunter2_1

[Pugger]

23 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

GB had an expected win score of just under 10-6, and went 9-1 in one-score games (for my purposes, an 8 pt margin). Usually an expected win score is more indicative of how good a team is than W-L record, and usually one-score games are a 50/50 proposition. So both of those indicate that, all things being equal, GB was 3-4 games above where they "should" have finished. 

I am a GB fan, but last year the Packers definitely had a horseshoe up their butt. Their expected regression is more like they go from 13-3 with a first round bye to being a 10-6/11-5 team. So yes, it's a regression, but not a falling off the earth. If they repeat a 13-3 season, I'll be thrilled. 

Last year with a first year HC and a suspect WR corps we had a really nice year.  If that WR corps is upgraded and Rodgers is more comfortable in this offense we may regress with fewer wins but the overall team might be better.

[ET80]

7 hours ago, N4L said:

Watson single handily won them 5-6 games last year. I really believe that Bill is going to lose the locker room this year. Even before the Hopkins trade, I think he was starting to lose Watson. I mean, BOB wanted to punt down 17 in a playoff game very late in the third quarter, after going for it on 4th and 5 on their own side of the field up 17 in the first quarter. Watson had to burn a TO to not punt on the KC 40ish down 17 in a playoff game, and was pissed doing it. You could tell he wasn't happy with BOB. Then BOB traded away their second best offensive player for peanuts. 

Their defense is trending downward fast. None of the players they had from a few years ago are still there or are the same caliber. Their secondary has been bad/not good for a few years now. I think when the team starts to quit on BOB there will be some really ugly losses and it will spiral fast. Especially because the fans HATE bob right now and are going to turn on him really quick on the first sign of trouble. 

Texans have continued to somehow find their way into the playoffs year after year despite BOBs moronic game management, because Watson is THAT DUDE. Feels unlikely to continue. 

This is all pretty much spot on. Lost in this offensive dismantle is that the defense is still going to be "take us as far as JJ Watt can carry us" and Watt can't carry a roster like he used to.

I'm sure there's a move or two to bring in and edge rusher opposite Whitney Mercilius (ideally to replace him because Mercilius is really falling off) and the Texans need to find a replacement for DJ Reader - and you don't find Reader replacements easily. Zach Cunningham will probably assume the role of best front seven guy, but he's a coverage ILB - you're not turning a defense around based on the quality of one ILB (Berdnardrick McKinney is immensely overrated, BTW - if you should have traded anyone, it's him). You're returning a secondary that was shredded to pieces by guys like Jacoby Brissett and Drew Lock, so don't get too excited.

The draft could yield some promise, but the unit as a whole is a disaster.

[MikeT14]

Risers: Bucs & Cardinals

Fallers: Pats & 49ers

[Trentwannabe]

My risers and fallers are teams I see being at least 3 games better or worse this season.

Risers: Miami, Tampa Bay , Arizona

Fallers: Houston, New England 

[mission27]

On 4/11/2020 at 10:49 AM, notthatbluestuff said:

Belichick is great but the roster is worse even disregarding the loss of Brady. When you factor the QB situation in, it's even worse. By no means are the Pats done forever but I think it'll be a down year. 

I agree.  They'll probably go 11-5 and first round exit

Doesn't bother me tho since I'm a Bucs fan now

[mission27]

On 4/11/2020 at 11:21 PM, Uncle Buck said:

You had Moss and Welker in those games though.  Who do you have at the receiver position now that is comparable to take up the slack?

BB is the GOAT, no doubt about it, but as others have said, I think it will take a year or two to reload.  It wouldn't surprise me if he made me look foolish for saying it.  You would think I'd know better after all these years. 

Yeah but the defense was kind of shaky and they didnt have a run game that year tbf

Realistically I think the defense will be top tier even with a few departures (secondary is still one of the GOAT), special teams will be very strong, and the offense will be garbage.  Which is sort of what the team was last year and even when they wont the SB a couple years ago, except they wont have Brady to bail them out in the big spots.  Bill probably finds a way to win a bunch of low scoring games in that division and make the playoffs but if he makes a real run that would really be his greatest accomplishment.  More likely its a couple of years of retooling where they're still competitive but not a real threat