Cam Newton

[footbull3196]

2 hours ago, Synopsis said:

Very few quarterbacks have approached Cam's 2015 season.

There have been plenty of passing seasons that have been statistically superior to Newton's 2015 season from this past decade alone that don't get the same recognition because they didnt get to win MVP in a weak field of candidates.  If you want to include his rushing totals towards part of that campaign then fine, but it's not like his passing totals were on another level historically that season, they were just well above the league average and not all that impressive when you consider his completion % was below 60 and his YPA was only very good and not great at 7.75

Edited September 23, 2019 by footbull3196

[iknowcool]

1 hour ago, footbull3196 said:

 If you want to include his rushing totals towards part of that campaign then fine,

Give me one argument why you would not include his rushing totals.  I'm not even sure why this is something you would have to say.  Of course his rushing totals will be included towards his campaign.

Also...

Quote

Cam hitting 67% completion is less indicative of him progressing as a passer and more indicative of how easy it is to complete passes in today’s nfl.  Eli Manning completed 66% of his passes last season and literally nobody thought it made him good.  Dak prescott has the highest completion % by a quarterback in his first 3 seasons, but is anyone stupid enough to buy into that and think that it makes him a great quarterback?  I would hope not, especially based off 3 games against 3 of the worst 5 teams in the league

Good job moving the goal-posts.  Newton's CMP% matters in his 2015 season, but somehow it doesn't matter in his 2018 season?  Which one is it dude?  Does CMP% matter or does it not matter?

You can't make an argument that CMP% is a misleading stat (which I agree with - I have argued this for YEARS and somehow people are just now realizing this) and then act like it matters whenever it supports your agenda.

Edited September 24, 2019 by iknowcool

[footbull3196]

1 minute ago, iknowcool said:

Give me one argument why you would not include his rushing totals.

It would be absolutely moronic not to.

Youre right and that's kinda why I threw that clause in there.  Honestly, I was more making the point that his 2015 passing stats weren't all that impressive in a vacuum, but combined with his legs it made it a great season

[footbull3196]

6 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Good job moving the goal-posts.  Newton's CMP% matters in his 2015 season, but somehow it doesn't matter in his 2018 season?  Which one is it dude?  Does CMP% matter or does it not matter?

You can't make an argument that CMP% is a misleading stat (which I agree with - I have argued this for YEARS and somehow people are just now realizing this) and then act like it matters whenever it supports your agenda.

I didnt really move the goal posts though lol.  I said that Newton hitting a high mark is more indicative of the current day NFL being a league where it's relatively easy to complete passes at a high clip, not that completion percentage doesnt matter.  I was saying don't read into his "improvement" in that area that much.  As for not hitting 60% of his passes during the 2015 season, it's ok to read into that because he wasnt even hitting the benchmark for the average quarterback during that time

[Synopsis]

16 minutes ago, footbull3196 said:

Youre right and that's kinda why I threw that clause in there.  Honestly, I was more making the point that his 2015 passing stats weren't all that impressive in a vacuum, but combined with his legs it made it a great season

It's quarterback not passingback.

[footbull3196]

1 minute ago, Synopsis said:

It's quarterback not passingback.

Oh wow you really got me on that one.  What's next, it's football not throwball?

[Synopsis]

13 minutes ago, footbull3196 said:

I didnt really move the goal posts though lol.  I said that Newton hitting a high mark is more indicative of the current day NFL being a league where it's relatively easy to complete passes at a high clip, not that completion percentage doesnt matter.  I was saying don't read into his "improvement" in that area that much.  As for not hitting 60% of his passes during the 2015 season, it's ok to read into that because he wasnt even hitting the benchmark for the average quarterback during that time

You're one of those people who look at box scores instead of watching games. No one will have a high percentage with Ted Ginn and Philly Brown as your starting wide receivers.

[footbull3196]

Just now, Synopsis said:

You're one of those people who look at box scores instead of watching games. No one will have a high percentage with Ted Ginn and Philly Brown as your starting wide receivers.

And I will admit that one of the things that Cam has never really had going for him has been his lack of a true #1 receiver.  Steve Smith was it for 1-2 seasons but was already 32 when Cam entered the league.  Kelvin Benjamin wasnt it, Devin Funchess wasnt it, and DJ Moore wasnt it.  So I will give you that, but this doesn't excuse Cam consistently missing passes and overthrowing receivers for his whole career.  There's not a lot of receivers that can make their quarterback look good with some of the ducks that Cam has thrown

[iknowcool]

28 minutes ago, footbull3196 said:

I didnt really move the goal posts though lol.  I said that Newton hitting a high mark is more indicative of the current day NFL being a league where it's relatively easy to complete passes at a high clip, not that completion percentage doesnt matter.  I was saying don't read into his "improvement" in that area that much.  As for not hitting 60% of his passes during the 2015 season, it's ok to read into that because he wasnt even hitting the benchmark for the average quarterback during that time

My point is you can't be willing to apply context to his completion percentage in 2018 and not do the same for 2015.  His top WR was Ted Ginn.  There was nobody on the team, outside of Olsen, who could consistently get open underneath.  Of course he isn't going to be completing a high percentage of his passes, especially in a system that was A) dependent on downfield throwing with subpar receivers and B) that lacked the easy throws other QBs had.  The difference between 2018 and 2015 isn't the league somehow getting easier, it was a system change + Christian McCaffrey.  I mean Newton's accuracy didn't look good in Week 1 either and he still completed 65% of his passes.

Ginn had 10 drops in 2015 (maybe even more - that's just what I got off a quick Google search).  The difference between Newton hitting 59 and 61 percent was 10 completions.  Are we really going to act like it's a big deal he wasn't hitting 60% because of 10 incompletions?    

Completion percentage is a garbage stat.  Nobody would argue Luck is inaccurate and look at his completion percentage his first 4 years.  Newton didn't magically get more efficient from 2016 to 2017 - it was the elimination of Shula and addition of Turner, who isn't the best OC but he's a far bigger improvement over Shula when it comes to modern offenses.  And the thing is, what happened is exactly what I said would happen.  Nobody would have been efficient in Shula's offense because it wasn't an offense meant to be efficient, and unless you have a QB like Mahomes (which Newton obviously isn't), that kind of system won't fly. 

If you believe CMP% isn't a fair and reflective statistic because of outside factors, that is fair.  But it doesn't make sense to then hold it against someone, especially when the difference over a season is like 10 completions.  That isn't even a completion a game.

Edited September 24, 2019 by iknowcool

[iknowcool]

I understand that Newton isn't the best passer and sure, I'm a Cam homer.  So I'm sure I've overrated him plenty on this forum before.  But he gets such a bad rep by people who seem to only look at the numbers.  It's crazy, especially because I remember when most people on this site agreed stats weren't the be all, end all.

Anyone who looks at Newton's 2015 season and thinks he was only good for that 8 or 9 game stretch is completely off-base.  For example, the Colts game he finished with a 45 CMP% and 76 QB rating but he was phenomenal that game.  Ginn dropped multiple passes, including this inexplicable one on a PERFECT Newton deep ball:
 

Ginn dropped 3 or 4 touchdowns in the same fashion that season.  Ginn's never even come close to the 10 TDs he had that season.

But very few people seem willing to actually take a step back and look at the factors that were surrounding him.  And even at the time, people acknowledged how well he was playing despite the lack of numbers.  The idea that Newton got into the MVP race out of nowhere is simply revisionist history - the only thing that happened was the production finally began to match how well he was playing.  

It was one of the most impressive displays of a QB putting an offense on his back.  Has Newton had a season that good again?  Well, no, but that doesn't seem fair to hold against him - Marino (at least statistically) never came close to his 1984 and 1986 seasons again and nobody holds that against him.  But Newton's been a good QB.  Maybe he hasn't been top ten, whatever.  But he has been a game changer.  He is the #1 reason why the Panthers have consistently been competitive with him, even in seasons where we missed the playoffs.  He's been a touchdown machine.  He's flawed, but I think people focus far too much on his flaws and completely ignore the strengths he has brought to the table.  

2017 doesn't have the #s that 2015 did, but I genuinely think it was just as good.  Shula was still OC, McCaffrey wasn't our full-time back yet, Stewart was washed, and his best receivers were absolutely terrible (Benjamin and Funchess - IIRC, both were in the bottom five in separation yards per route).  And yet despite that, Newton weathered the storm despite shoulder surgery in the offseason and had the Panthers as one of the best teams in the league again.  And in one of his best games to this date, he had the Panthers so close to beating the Saints in the playoffs despite clearly being the inferior team.

It hasn't always been pretty with Newton and he isn't that kind of QB, but man this site seriously underrates him when they start getting obsessed with statistics.  There is a reason why teams with "equal" QBs ie. Lions haven't even come close to our kind of highs - Newton offers a peak that not many other QBs have.  Sure, his lows can be really low, but he made up for it when he was on point.  It's similar to Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook isn't the best, most efficient basketball player, and he has flaws that make you question his game.  But when he's on, holy crap he's on.  Sometimes there is more to the game than being efficient.

Edited September 24, 2019 by iknowcool

[footbull3196]

5 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

My point is you can't be willing to apply context to his completion percentage in 2018 and not do the same for 2015.  His top WR was Ted Ginn.  There was nobody on the team, outside of Olsen, who could consistently get open underneath.  Of course he isn't going to be completing a high percentage of his passes, especially in a system that was A) dependent on downfield throwing with subpar receivers and B) that lacked the easy throws other QBs had.  The difference between 2018 and 2015 isn't the league somehow getting easier, it was a system change + Christian McCaffrey.  I mean Newton's accuracy didn't look good in Week 1 either and he still completed 65% of his passes.

Ginn had 10 drops in 2015 (maybe even more - that's just what I got off a quick Google search).  The difference between Newton hitting 59 and 61 percent was 10 completions.  Are we really going to act like it's a big deal he wasn't hitting 60% because of 10 incompletions?    

Completion percentage is a garbage stat.  Nobody would argue Luck is inaccurate and look at his completion percentage his first 4 years.  Newton didn't magically get more efficient from 2016 to 2017 - it was the elimination of Shula and addition of Turner, who isn't the best OC but he's a far bigger improvement over Shula when it comes to modern offenses.  And the thing is, what happened is exactly what I said would happen.  Nobody would have been efficient in Shula's offense because it wasn't an offense meant to be efficient.

If you believe CMP% isn't a fair and reflective statistic because of outside factors, that is fair.  But it doesn't make sense to then hold it against someone, especially when the difference over a season is like 10 completions.  That isn't even a completion a game.

True, I was kinda nitpicky because it was 59.8% instead of 60%.  Though I still maintain that part of the difference in Cam's completion percentage was due to the fact that it's become significantly easier to complete passes in today's NFL.  But I will admit it obviously helps not having Shula call plays lol.  I remember how annoying that 2016 season was for most Panthers fans.  And yes Ginn as their best receiver didnt help either

I was one of the people in 2018 who had Cam as a weak MVP candidate after the first half of the season, because to be totally honest he was playing as well as he played in his MVP season.  Then he fell off overnight due to the beating he took that year and he hasn't looked the same since

The things I've always been most critical of regarding his MVP season were the strength of schedule and the defensive support he received, and while I do get your point about needing to apply context to this 2015 season, I think it needs to go both ways as well.  I cant say anything about how he performed in the playoffs that season and won't hold his goose egg in the Super Bowl against him because he played a historically great defense, but the cupcake schedule he skated through in the regular season can't be totally ignored here

[iknowcool]

1 minute ago, footbull3196 said:

 I cant say anything about how he performed in the playoffs that season and won't hold his goose egg in the Super Bowl against him because he played a historically great defense, but the cupcake schedule he skated through in the regular season can't be totally ignored here

You're definitely right, context goes both ways and I agree that relative to other MVP campaigns, it's probably on the weaker side.  But overall, I'd still say it was one of the best quarterback-ed seasons of the decade.  Newton delivered every time we needed him until the Super Bowl, sadly.  That Broncos defense was one of the best I have ever seen though, I think you could argue it was the best one of the 2010s.  I hated when they beat the Patriots because I thought we matched up far better with them.

[footbull3196]

1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

You're definitely right, context goes both ways and I agree that relative to other MVP campaigns, it's probably on the weaker side.  But overall, I'd still say it was one of the best quarterback-ed seasons of the decade.  Newton delivered every time we needed him until the Super Bowl, sadly.  That Broncos defense was one of the best I have ever seen though, I think you could argue it was the best one of the 2010s.  I hated when they beat the Patriots because I thought we matched up far better with them.

Honestly I’d argue that broncos D as one of the best ever given the lack of support from their QBs that season.  And I agree the panthers would have played a better game against the Pats and had a case for a top 15-20 team of all time if they had won the super bowl against either of those teams