First Round Scenarios

[Brit Pack]

This is the first time I don’t really like our options of where we stand at 30^th pick. Here are the main scenarios I see playing out.

The following 20 players will almost definitely be gone:
QBs: Borrow, Tua, Herbert (3)
WRs: Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson (4)
OTs: Wirf, Thomas, Becton, Wills (4)
DTs: Brown, Kinlaw (2)
DEs: Young, K’Lavon (2)
LBs: Simmons, Murray, Queen (3)
CBs: Okudah, Henderson (2)

Scenario 1, the trade up. If certain players fell to the 23^rd pick I think a trade with the Pas could be on the cards, if we like someone enough, our 1^st and 3^rd for their pick seems about right and they are always up for a deal.

The players I could see us trading up for who I personally like are the LSU boys Queen or Jefferson. I’m sure others have their favourites they might do that deal for.

Scenario 2, players that might drop a little. If there are players that could drop to our spot at 30 then these 4 players would fall into that category

OTs: Jones, Jackson (2)
DEs: Gross Matos, Epensa (2)

I would be happy to take Jones at 30, less so the others.

Scenario 3, the likely suspects. So the most likely players we are picking from would be the following:
QB: Love (1)
RB: Swift (1)
WRs: Higgins, Mims, Reagor, Shenault, Aiyuk (5)
DL: Blacklock (1)
LB: Baun (1)
CBs: Terrell, Diggs, Fulton (3)
S: McKinney, Delpit (2)

I’m not a fan of any of the defence backs here. You would hope that Love and Swift are taken before our pick, that would help a lot in pushing down talent.

The players I would take at 30 would be Higgins (a big fan), Mims and less of a fan Blacklock.

Scenario 4, the trade back. Reality a trade back would be a good idea. The reality of players that we would be targeting and available at 30 is relatively small. Lots of the tier 2 WR talent will be there with a trade back and then the second tier of OTs open up as well in terms of value at the top of the 2^nd round: Cleveland, Wilson, Peart, Prince and Niang. I would be more comfortable taking one of those DBs then also.

[AlexGreen#20]

We're not trading up for an ILB unless Simmons is plausibly accused of a heinous crime and we're the only team that knows he has an alibi that clears him because he was meeting with us at the time of the accusation. Considering the talent in the second tier, I hesitate to even consider that we might trade up for a WR unless Lamb or Jeudy start to fall to like 17 or something.

I think it's crazy to list Jones and Jackson of having a chance to fall without having Queen or Murray on that list also. It's distinctly possible we see 6 OTs go in the top 15 picks and 8 go in the first round. 

If those are the options, you almost have to take one of the DBs or Blacklock. We still don't have a dime DB, and that's if you REALLY like Sullivan as the nickel or think Tramon coming back is a lock. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

The OTs don't excite me this year (they do sometimes, just not this year).

I also don't expect an ILB in rounds1-2, though I DO expect it to be addressed, maybe in round three and definitely by the end of round four.

DB has, in recent history, been such a popular early pick, I'd rather see another position addressed with the early picks, this year.

TE is not an early pick this year, imo.

QB is a wild card - it's entirely down to whether the GM/HC love a specific guy. If they do, go get them wherever they are.

Now we are down to my two most favoured early pick positions, DL and WR. I change by the day which way round they should be taken. At the moment I'd go WR then DL but that could all change tomorrow. It's like in the 2018 draft when I had a terrible time deciding who was better between Harold Landry (the bendy speedy edge guy) and Marcus Davenport (more of a power guy). In the end I went with power over bendiness and speed with that choice, but you get the idea.

I'm fine with a trade back, but it's more difficult to guess who might want to spend picks to move up to that spot, so my guess is that we stay put this year in round one.

I do understand that NOT getting an OT early makes it very difficult to field a good O line, I wish I could love them more. Maybe the Packers get lucky there in round three ?

Edited April 12, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive

[Brit Pack]

16 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think it's crazy to list Jones and Jackson of having a chance to fall without having Queen or Murray on that list also. It's distinctly possible we see 6 OTs go in the top 15 picks and 8 go in the first round. 

Crazy a bit of an overstatement! Regardless, I doubt any of those 4 players being there at 30. It is just a personal thing I like Queen, not saying that the Packers would trade up for him.

16 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

If those are the options, you almost have to take one of the DBs or Blacklock. We still don't have a dime DB, and that's if you REALLY like Sullivan as the nickel or think Tramon coming back is a lock. 

I just think you are over drafting the CBs at 30 and there is still some decent FAs out there including Tramon that fill that role if required and I like the 3rd/4th tier of CBs better in this draft, there is some real nice SPARQ guys there. Overall that is why I prefer the trade back more because there is such a lack of options.

[Mazrimiv]

How mad will GB fans be if Swift or Dobbins is the pick at 30?  I would be surprised, but I wouldn't totally hate it.  Instant impact, and would presumably take a big 2nd contract for Jones off the table.

Going with Swift/Dobbins in RD1, then WR (Aiyuk?) in RD2 would not bother me at all.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Mazrimiv

[AlexGreen#20]

16 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

How mad will GB fans be if Swift or Dobbins is the pick at 30?  I would be surprised, but I wouldn't totally hate it.  Instant impact, and would presumably take a big 2nd contract for Jones off the table.

Going with Swift/Dobbins in RD1, then WR (Aiyuk?) in RD2 would not bother me at all.

Furious. Would murder.

There's no instant impact. They wouldn't be better than Aaron Jones. There isn't a big table for Aaron Jones on the table.

[Mazrimiv]

Heck, now I actually want to see it happen.

[CWood21]

22 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

How mad will GB fans be if Swift or Dobbins is the pick at 30?  I would be surprised, but I wouldn't totally hate it.  Instant impact, and would presumably take a big 2nd contract for Jones off the table.

Going with Swift/Dobbins in RD1, then WR (Aiyuk?) in RD2 would not bother me at all.

They won't.  There's a better chance of us going with an ILB that early.

[packfanfb]

Just take Reagor at 30 and thank me later.

[Mazrimiv]

In the given scenario, Murray and Queen are both gone.  Is there an ILB past them that seems likely at 30?

[Golfman]

I think Love is going to go before either Tua or Hebert and maybe both. Rumors of Miami falling hard for this kid, one could even say it's Love! Still concerns about Tua's hip. They might grab Love at 5. I see no chance there aren't 4 QB gone b4 we pick. 

If 8 OT's are gone b4 us and we can get the same sort of qualify or close in mid round 2 at WR or DT as we can at 30, trade down. Somebody is going to want to get back in round 1 about our spot. Let it be us in any of those scenarios. 

[Golfman]

5 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

In the given scenario, Murray and Queen are both gone.  Is there an ILB past them that seems likely at 30?

Oh gawd no! The last thing you do is reach for an ILB. Also, I see Baun going b4 Murray honestly. 

[Brit Pack]

5 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

In the given scenario, Murray and Queen are both gone.  Is there an ILB past them that seems likely at 30?

Baun

[Mazrimiv]

Just now, Brit Pack said:

Baun

I think I'd rather go with the RB

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Golfman said:

I think Love is going to go before either Tua or Hebert and maybe both. Rumors of Miami falling hard for this kid, one could even say it's Love! Still concerns about Tua's hip. They might grab Love at 5. I see no chance there aren't 4 QB gone b4 we pick. 

If 8 OT's are gone b4 us and we can get the same sort of qualify or close in mid round 2 at WR or DT as we can at 30, trade down. Somebody is going to want to get back in round 1 about our spot. Let it be us in any of those scenarios. 

Herbert seems to be the guy that Miami likes.  I'm not sure I've seen anyone linking Love-to-Miami.  As for the 8 OTs, I don't see that many OT's going off the board.  The last time we saw 8 OTs go off the board in the first round, you'd have to go back to 2008 when 8 OTs went in the first round.