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First Round Scenarios


Brit Pack

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3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It's been a while and I'm not saying it's likely, I think it will be 7, but when was the last time there was this little talent on the DL, and really in the secondary also?

A lot of the teams that heavily value the premiums aren't going to have much choice.

I mean, I think we're going to see guys who aren't necessarily viewed as consensus FRPs, but will end up being FRPs.  On average, we've seen 5.8 DBs taken on Day 1.  Last year, we saw 3 go in the first round.  It's nearly another full DB if you exclude last year.  I think at a minimum you're going to see Jeffery Okudah, C.J. Henderson, Kristian Fulton, and Xavier McKinney go in the first round.  I'd imagine you'll see another few DBs taken.

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29 minutes ago, spilltray said:

The media is always way off base on a few guys. With more people isolated I think there will be more diverse boards than usual with the media not having the amount of information they usually do on who is thinking what. There are always a few of those guys out of nowhere that blow up the predictions. I have a feeling that is going to be higher than usual.

Guess I didn’t think of it like that, makes a lot of sense. 

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Another point to think is that the 24 or so already mentioned in the OP that most likely will be gone a further 5 from this bunch will be gone:
QB: Love (1)
RB: Swift (1)
WRs: Higgins, Mims, Reagor, Shenault, Aiyuk (5)
DL: Blacklock (1)
LB: Baun (1)
CBs: Terrell, Diggs, Fulton (3)
S: McKinney, Delpit (2)

Imagine if Mims, Reagor, Higgins are one of those 5?!!

Very slim pickings in terms of value at 30!

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3 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Very slim pickings in terms of value at 30!

Except year after year, we see shocking picks.  Last year, we saw Chris Lindstrom, Tytus Howard, Johnathan Abram, L.J. Collier, and Kaleb McGary go in the first round.  In 2018, Frank Ragnow, Isaiah Wynn, Rashad Penny, Taven Bryan, and Sony Michel go in the first round.  In 2017, John Ross, Adoree' Jackson, and Taco Charlton all go in the first round.

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except year after year, we see shocking picks.  Last year, we saw Chris Lindstrom, Tytus Howard, Johnathan Abram, L.J. Collier, and Kaleb McGary go in the first round.  In 2018, Frank Ragnow, Isaiah Wynn, Rashad Penny, Taven Bryan, and Sony Michel go in the first round.  In 2017, John Ross, Adoree' Jackson, and Taco Charlton all go in the first round.

You left out Savage who most experts did not see as a first round pick. 

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10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except year after year, we see shocking picks.  Last year, we saw Chris Lindstrom, Tytus Howard, Johnathan Abram, L.J. Collier, and Kaleb McGary go in the first round.  In 2018, Frank Ragnow, Isaiah Wynn, Rashad Penny, Taven Bryan, and Sony Michel go in the first round.  In 2017, John Ross, Adoree' Jackson, and Taco Charlton all go in the first round.

Even if you account for let say 5 players that are projected by the draft community as 2nd rounders who go in the first, we pretty much still have the choices we are talking about give or take. Apart from the WRs I don't see much value at 30. It just seems to me unless someone drops the best option  is trade back.

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25 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Even if you account for let say 5 players that are projected by the draft community as 2nd rounders who go in the first, we pretty much still have the choices we are talking about give or take. Apart from the WRs I don't see much value at 30. It just seems to me unless someone drops the best option  is trade back.

When was the last time you saw the Packers pick come up and the board just obliterated?  Last year, I wasn't a huge fan of the Rashan Gary pick but I had Brian Burns, Andre Dillard, and Montez Sweat being of value.  In 2018, I had first round grades on Calvin Ridley and Harold Landry with first round grades.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

When was the last time you saw the Packers pick come up and the board just obliterated?  Last year, I wasn't a huge fan of the Rashan Gary pick but I had Brian Burns, Andre Dillard, and Montez Sweat being of value.  In 2018, I had first round grades on Calvin Ridley and Harold Landry with first round grades.

That's the problem I have with this year that there are so few options that I feel fit or worth the 30th pick. I don't see many directions to go unless we go WR or over draft a CB. Or take a potential DL guy. I'm hoping an OT drops. 

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17 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

That's the problem I have with this year that there are so few options that I feel fit or worth the 30th pick. I don't see many directions to go unless we go WR or over draft a CB. Or take a potential DL guy. I'm hoping an OT drops. 

Somebody the Packers are highly interested in will fall to them this year.  The circumstances of this very unusual draft will throw a lot of curves that hasn't happened in past years.  No pro workouts, face to face contact, etc ... GMs/teams will have to fly by the seat of their pants this year and there will be some real surprises who is picked how high and where.  Going to be a fascinating draft to watch!!

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7 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Somebody the Packers are highly interested in will fall to them this year.  The circumstances of this very unusual draft will throw a lot of curves that hasn't happened in past years.  No pro workouts, face to face contact, etc ... GMs/teams will have to fly by the seat of their pants this year and there will be some real surprises who is picked how high and where.  Going to be a fascinating draft to watch!!

The lack of pro days etc will impact more mid to later round prospects. There will be certainly a lot more variance there especially guys coming off injuries. My feeling is that the first round will pan out like most years, a few surprises but typically the names you expect will go where you expect them to, but who knows...

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20 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, I think we're going to see guys who aren't necessarily viewed as consensus FRPs, but will end up being FRPs.  On average, we've seen 5.8 DBs taken on Day 1.  Last year, we saw 3 go in the first round.  It's nearly another full DB if you exclude last year.  I think at a minimum you're going to see Jeffery Okudah, C.J. Henderson, Kristian Fulton, and Xavier McKinney go in the first round.  I'd imagine you'll see another few DBs taken.

I enjoy reading threads like this but rarely add much due to the fact I don't know enough about these kids to make educated guesses but every year a couple of teams surprise everyone taking a player that wasn't on anyone's radar in the first.  With the way things are this year I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen more than a couple of times so we might be able to get a real gem this year at 30 that we wouldn't normally.

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If Tee Higgins is there at 30 I would be a happy man. When the off season started he was considered to be the 3rd WR of this draft class. He is down now to about the 5th or 6th. Having said that Bryan Edwards if the WR I really love and think he can be had in the 3rd. If not him in the 3rd there is plenty of good WRs, so if the opportunity to take a player other than a WR  in the first or a trade down I would favour it strongly.

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