User Name's Final "Stand-On-The-Table Guys" Cut-Down 2020 NFL Draft Big Board

[MWil23]

Guys I believe will be future Pro Bowl caliber players:

1. Chase Young

2. Jeff Okudah

3. J.K. Dobbins

4. Joe Burrow because he's an OSU alum

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

Guys I believe will be future Pro Bowl caliber players:

1. Chase Young

2. Jeff Okudah

3. J.K. Dobbins

4. Joe Burrow because he's an OSU alum

 

This is the way.

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

Guys I believe will be future Pro Bowl caliber players:

1. Chase Young

2. Jeff Okudah

3. J.K. Dobbins

4. Joe Burrow because he's an OSU alum

 

In all seriousness, I'll break it down by guys I think are going to have the highest floors, guys who have the most potential, and guys who I think are going to underperform their projection (by a lot)/bust.

Biggest Floors:

*Chase Young

*Jeff Okudah

*Wills (OT)

*Thomas (OT)

*Wirfs (Even if he "busts" at OT, he's going to be a Pro Bowl caliber OG IMO)

*JK Dobbins

*Swift

*Simmons

*Brown (DT)

*Jeudy

*Burrow: I'm not sold that he's a "STUD" QB, but I think worse case scenario, he's K. Cousins

Most Potential:

*CeeDee

*Ruggs

*Mims and Claypool (Height/explosiveness at the WR spots)

*TE from Notre Dame (frame concerns)

*CB Henderson from Florida

*Tua: Size/injury/athleticism concerns, as well as having elite weapons at Bama, combined with all else, that's a recipe for an overdraft, but he could legitimately be great too. I think that he's boom or bust

Major Bust Factor:

*Becton

*Herbert: I just don't see it. Lots of tools, I don't believe in his tape

*Love: I don't see it at all, but it's hard to say because his surrounding cast was awful

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

In all seriousness, I'll break it down by guys I think are going to have the highest floors, guys who have the most potential, and guys who I think are going to underperform their projection (by a lot)/bust.

Biggest Floors:

*Chase Young

*Jeff Okudah

*Wills (OT)

*Thomas (OT)

*Wirfs (Even if he "busts" at OT, he's going to be a Pro Bowl caliber OG IMO)

*JK Dobbins

*Swift

*Simmons

*Brown (DT)

*Jeudy

*Burrow: I'm not sold that he's a "STUD" QB, but I think worse case scenario, he's K. Cousins

Most Potential:

*CeeDee

*Ruggs

*Mims and Claypool (Height/explosiveness at the WR spots)

*TE from Notre Dame (frame concerns)

*CB Henderson from Florida

*Tua: Size/injury/athleticism concerns, as well as having elite weapons at Bama, combined with all else, that's a recipe for an overdraft, but he could legitimately be great too. I think that he's boom or bust

Major Bust Factor:

*Becton

*Herbert: I just don't see it. Lots of tools, I don't believe in his tape

*Love: I don't see it at all, but it's hard to say because his surrounding cast was awful

I like these breakdown categories a lot b/c they serve utilitarian value in predicting how many GMs see the draft in terms of their willingness to take a big swing for the fences vs. selecting a high floor, lower ceiling player.

A guy like Jeremy Chinn, for example, has a huge ceiling, but a lower floor than a high floor, much lower ceiling player in Xavier Mckinney. The interesting thing is figuring out which GMs are more likely to see the boom even if there's a higher probability of bust over a player with no real sizzle or boom at all.

That is essence the Okudah vs Henderson debate, Tua vs Herbert debate, Lamb vs. Jeud, AJ Epenesa vs K'Lavon Chaisson , etc etc etc.

I know I'd be the GM to seek out higher floor, lower ceiling players.

Now, it gets a lot harder as the rounds go on as in earlier rounds it can be in essence be deciding between two players a team feels really good about. In round 3, it becomes a lot harder as the projection of skills becomes less concrete and is more open to a wider range of interpretations.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

I like these breakdown categories a lot b/c they serve utilitarian value in predicting how many GMs see the draft in terms of their willingness to take a big swing for the fences vs. selecting a high floor, lower ceiling player.

A guy like Jeremy Chinn, for example, has a huge ceiling, but a lower floor than a high floor, much lower ceiling player in Xavier Mckinney. The interesting thing is figuring out which GMs are more likely to see the boom even if there's a higher probability of bust over a player with no real sizzle or boom at all.

 

Thanks! IMO, I'm a relatively risk averse person in the Top 10 and certainly Top 5, but would be much more willing to gamble outside of the Top 10. For example, I'm not taking South Carolina DT Kinlaw (SP?) Top 10, but I'd absolutely take him outside of the Top 15 and hope that his athleticism meets production in the NFL. I also think that it's valuable in determining depth value at positions in the draft.

For example, the S positions, I don't see any real difference in grabbing Winfield vs. McKinney, so why wouldn't I grab Winfield later? Also, while I absolutely LOATHE Delpit and think he's garbage (I forgot to put him in my bust column), I'd absolutely take him at 41 if Winfield and McKinney was gone, hoping that I just got "an extra 1st Rounder" this year.

2 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

That is essence the Okudah vs Henderson debate, Tua vs Herbert debate, Lamb vs. Jeud, AJ Epenesa vs K'Lavon Chaisson , etc etc etc.

I'll even take it a step further:

Would you rather take CeeDee at #10, with Josh Jones/Ezra Cleveland in the 2nd,

or:

Take Andrew Thomas/Tristen Wirfs/Wills in the 1st and Denzel Mims or Chase Claypool, or fill in whomever your favorite 2nd/3rd Round receiver is in this loaded class in Rounds 2/3?

To me, I'm taking the best OT/one of the best OT and then loading up on positional value elsewhere (WR, RB, R3/R4 EDGE) because I may be able to grab multiple starters and hit homeruns on impact areas of need that change the entire trajectory of the franchise.

2 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

I know I'd be the GM to seek out higher floor, lower ceiling players.

Now, it gets a lot harder as the rounds go on as in earlier rounds it can be in essence be deciding between two players a team feels really good about. In round 3, it becomes a lot harder as the projection of skills becomes less concrete and is more open to a wider range of interpretations.

What made this team so bad for so long was not only that we whiffed on players that were better, but so many of our busts were OUT OF THE LEAGUE within a couple of years. I mean, if you're the guy who takes Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers, you feel dumb, but at least Alex Smith is/was an above average to good QB in the NFL, or Hakeem Olajuwon over MJ (HOF over another HOF who was better), similar to us taking Myles over Mahomes. Now, imagine taking Jamarcus Russell over AD, Joe Thomas, and Calvin Johnson.

That's where you lose your job and hit the "reset" button on a franchise for 5 years.

[Mind Character]

10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'll even take it a step further:

Would you rather take CeeDee at #10, with Josh Jones/Ezra Cleveland in the 2nd,

or:

Take Andrew Thomas/Tristen Wirfs/Wills in the 1st and Denzel Mims or Chase Claypool, or fill in whomever your favorite 2nd/3rd Round receiver is in this loaded class in Rounds 2/3?

To me, I'm taking the best OT/one of the best OT and then loading up on positional value elsewhere (WR, RB, R3/R4 EDGE) because I may be able to grab multiple starters and hit homeruns on impact areas of need that change the entire trajectory of the franchise.

Now, this is the good stuff.

Adding in variables like positional value, the round of selection, and the depth of a particular position group when deciding between players at different position groups is the stuff that makes the draft one of the most compelling public spectacles of Analysis/Evaluation-Entertainment.

Looking at potential multi-round scenarios from a birds-eye view is the thing that keeps GMs up at night, especially thinking about potential outcomes from rounds 1, 2, and 3. Teams weighing Option 1: CeeDee Lamb in the 1st and a trade up from the 1st to 2nd for Austin Jackson VERSUS Option 2: Mekhi Becton in the 1st and Denzel Mims/HighQuality WR in the 2nd. Those are the types of scenarios and simulations where the best GMs make their mark. It takes not only good evaluation skills of the players, but also the ability to predict how the board will fall.

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

What made this team so bad for so long was not only that we whiffed on players that were better, but so many of our busts were OUT OF THE LEAGUE within a couple of years. I mean, if you're the guy who takes Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers, you feel dumb, but at least Alex Smith is/was an above average to good QB in the NFL, or Hakeem Olajuwon over MJ (HOF over another HOF who was better), similar to us taking Myles over Mahomes. Now, imagine taking Jamarcus Russell over AD, Joe Thomas, and Calvin Johnson.

That's where you lose your job and hit the "reset" button on a franchise for 5 years.

Indeed.

So many teams and maybe none more than the Browns have refused to build a team by standing at the plate and swinging for contact. That gets you on base, gets you doubles, and ultimately racks up runs and wins. Johnny Manziel, Barkevious Mingo, trading tons of picks for a player or higher picks instead of having more gambles/swings at the plate, so many things have been done all in the service of taking huge home run swings that have led to whiffs.

Let's hope Andrew Berry and co. take a more tactful approach. The strategically aggressive approach is one they seem to be implementing, and I thik it's going to pay off in the end. This draft is a big test though.

 

[BleedTheClock]

On 4/13/2020 at 11:46 AM, Mind Character said:

Not even close.

Hill has superior body control and contact balance from his time being a running back. He also is quicker, has freakier acceleration, and most importantly attacks the ball in the air and has combat catch ability.

Ruggs will be good, but he's more of a Santa Moss (who was a good player in his own right) than a Tyreek Hill.

Hill is a lot faster on the field, but Ruggs has a better catch radius and is rocked up in his own rite. I think Ruggs profiles similarly to Steve Smith (89). 

[ditchdigger]

On 4/13/2020 at 12:09 PM, DaWg_LB. said:

I would bet my Truck on it.

I might want in on this. What kind of truck?

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Hill is a lot faster on the field, but Ruggs has a better catch radius and is rocked up in his own rite. I think Ruggs profiles similarly to Steve Smith (89). 

In theory, Ruggs has a wider/better catch radius, but I haven't seen him high point, dig out the dirt, or extend away from his frame to a high level as consistently as Hill did coming out of college and in the pros thus far. Physically speaking, you're right though in terms of the potential for Ruggs as he's strong.

Steve Smith played with the dog in 'em from Sun up to Sun Down. His routes were physical, twitchy and explosive. He also made spectacular catches away from his frame with insane contortionist body control as a quality high point hands catcher. Ruggs isn't that.

Ruggs is impressive in terms of his build and people inside the program say that he was the Alpha in the room of DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy and led in terms of approach and work ethic.

He's an impressive athlete, but he's more of a smooth, less physical, body catcher rather than a guy you stick out there and he can go get 90 plus catches for 1300+ via verticl routes or combat catches which is absolutely fine. Ruggs is going to be a very good player at the next level most likely but these Tyreek Hill and Steve Smith references are a stone's throw too far.

Santana Moss was a beast who was screwed over mostly by poor QB play and a declining health accurate, but noodle armed Chad Pennington followed by foolery in Washington. Moss took the top off and was a constant vertical threat from the slot or boundary. He struggled at times making catches away from his frame and with combat catching. Ruggs is a stronger more rugged version of Santana Moss imo who with better QB play would've went off more consistently.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Mind Character

[candyman93]

I’m biased, so I won’t mention OSU players.

 

If I had to pick 1 guy in this draft I 100% believe will be a stud it’s Cam Akers from FSU. He’s my Deebo Samuel / Nick Chubb  / Saquon BARKLEY category.

 

I feel REALLY good about CeeDee Lamb. He’s a straight dawg.

Edited April 14, 2020 by candyman93

[Mega Ron]

4 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Would you rather take CeeDee at #10, with Josh Jones/Ezra Cleveland in the 2nd,

I'd do this just to have Lamb, as well as having a jersey with Cleveland on it.

[BleedTheClock]

52 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

In theory, Ruggs has a wider/better catch radius, but I haven't seen him high point, dig out the dirt, or extend away from his frame to a high level as consistently as Hill did coming out of college and in the pros thus far. Physically speaking, you're right though in terms of the potential for Ruggs as he's strong.

Steve Smith played with the dog in 'em from Sun up to Sun Down. His routes were physical, twitchy and explosive. He also made spectacular catches away from his frame with insane contortionist body control as a quality high point hands catcher. Ruggs isn't that.

Ruggs is impressive in terms of his build and people inside the program say that he was the Alpha in the room of DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy and led in terms of approach and work ethic.

He's an impressive athlete, but he's more of a smooth, less physical, body catcher rather than a guy you stick out there and he can go get 90 plus catches for 1300+ via verticl routes or combat catches which is absolutely fine. Ruggs is going to be a very good player at the next level most likely but these Tyreek Hill and Steve Smith references are a stone's throw too far.

Santana Moss was a beast who was screwed over mostly by poor QB play and a declining health accurate, but noodle armed Chad Pennington followed by foolery in Washington. Moss took the top off and was a constant vertical threat from the slot or boundary. He struggled at times making catches away from his frame and with combat catching. Ruggs is a stronger more rugged version of Santana Moss imo who with better QB play would've went off more consistently.

I have seen Ruggs climb the ladder snd ****** the football in traffic a ton. And I admittedly haven’t even watched a lot of him. He’s very good at playing possession WR. Surprisingly good. I was not expecting to see that out of him based on my bias of labeling him a small speedster, but he exceeded expectations and then some. 

[BleedTheClock]

41 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

I’m biased, so I won’t mention OSU players.

 

If I had to pick 1 guy in this draft I 100% believe will be a stud it’s Cam Akers from FSU. He’s my Deebo Samuel / Nick Chubb  / Saquon BARKLEY category.

 

I feel REALLY good about CeeDee Lamb. He’s a straight dawg.

JK Dobbins blows Akers out of the water though. I think Dobbins is going to be special. 

[ditchdigger]

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

JK Dobbins blows Akers out of the water though. I think Dobbins is going to be special. 

Balance power vision acceleration similar to Nick Chubb. 

[BleedTheClock]

8 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Balance power vision acceleration similar to Nick Chubb. 

Chubb is probably better in all of those areas, IMO.  But they’re both top notch at all of it. Might even give Dobbins the vision advantage. Dobbins receiving advantage. Everyone saw his dropped pass against Clemson and decided Dobbins can’t catch for some reason. He is excellent out of the backfield.