Joe Mixon contract

[sparky151]

Mixon should get something that's a bit less than Cook.  As a RB, this is the time for him to demand a new contract. But teams have regretted extending RBs. Bengals will probably offer 8 and he'll ask for 12. They'll probably settle for 9. maybe 10 mil. He's never been paid before and that's lifechanging money so he's probably not going to hold out into the season. 

[THE DUKE]

15 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Mixon should get something that's a bit less than Cook.  As a RB, this is the time for him to demand a new contract. But teams have regretted extending RBs. Bengals will probably offer 8 and he'll ask for 12. They'll probably settle for 9. maybe 10 mil. He's never been paid before and that's lifechanging money so he's probably not going to hold out into the season. 

That sounds reasonable.  We'll see how reasonable Joe is.

[sparky151]

3 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

That sounds reasonable.  We'll see how reasonable Joe is.

He's scheduled to get 1.2 mil for the 4th year of his rookie deal. If he averages 9 mil on a new 4 year deal and gets a 10 mil signing bonus, he'd take home 11.2 mil this year even if his base pay is unchanged. Having 10 mil in the bank is lifechanging for a player at a position with short careers. Holding out all year brings him nothing and tolls his contract. The new CBA punishes holdouts even more than the last one. So a week or two of training camp, sure I could see that. But even missing preseason games would be costly for Mixon since he's under contract. 

[INbengalfan]

CMC isn't really making 16 per either.  It's a four year extension that adds 64 mill.  But he has two years remaining on his rookie deal (year 4, plus they already triggered 5th year option).  Year 4, he was scheduled to make $2.5 mill.  I am assuming the fifth year option was for slightly over $10 mill, so I'm using a flat 10 as the figure.

 

Those two years alone are 12.5/2 years.  When added to the 64 (with 4 years added)  he's really making $76.5 mill.  Then divided equally over 6 years, is 12.75 mill or so, off the top of my head.

 

When those numbers are taken into context, Joe's demands should settle in between $9-10 mill

[theJ]

1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

When those numbers are taken into context, Joe's demands should settle in between $9-10 mill

Good stuff.  

Any way you cut this, he absolutely needs to be more involved as a pass catcher going forward.  I don't care that Gio is the better pass blocker.  A player of Mixon's abilities should more than 108 catches over 3 years.

[INbengalfan]

As for Joe, he makes $1.2 this year (Spotrack). Say they sign him to an extension (not a completely new deal, same as CMC), for 4/$44. That’s really 5/45. They will dump a bunch of the signing bonus into this year, but that’s all about the cap. And that is what I always focus on. Say the signing bonus is roughly 12 mill. That means his future salaries are in the neighborhood of $7 mill per, because of the up front money, no matter what else is guaranteed money in future years. So the team guarantees about $20 mill of it and everyone is happy. The money is spread out evenly over the last 4 years, reducing the chance he gets cut, and ends up seeing every penny of the deal, which, historically, is what the team has been known for.

Meanwhile, his agent gets to say it’s a 4/44 extension that at first glance looks like he got $11 per

[THE DUKE]

12 minutes ago, INbengalfan said:

As for Joe, he makes $1.2 this year (Spotrack). Say they sign him to an extension (not a completely new deal, same as CMC), for 4/$44. That’s really 5/45. They will dump a bunch of the signing bonus into this year, but that’s all about the cap. And that is what I always focus on. Say the signing bonus is roughly 12 mill. That means his future salaries are in the neighborhood of $7 mill per, because of the up front money, no matter what else is guaranteed money in future years. So the team guarantees about $20 mill of it and everyone is happy. The money is spread out evenly over the last 4 years, reducing the chance he gets cut, and ends up seeing every penny of the deal, which, historically, is what the team has been known for.

Meanwhile, his agent gets to say it’s a 4/44 extension that at first glance looks like he got $11 per

Sounds good to me, but we still don't know the question of what Mixon expects.

[theJ]

So, given the information that has come out regarding Dalvin Cook and his lack of holdout leverage (he loses an accrued season and becomes an RFA next year if he doesn't report), does that change Mixon's leverage as well?  There were reports out there suggesting he might hold out this year.  But i kind of doubt any RB would be crazy enough to play that game of chicken and play another year on a cheap deal like that.

Thoughts?

[THE DUKE]

55 minutes ago, theJ said:

So, given the information that has come out regarding Dalvin Cook and his lack of holdout leverage (he loses an accrued season and becomes an RFA next year if he doesn't report), does that change Mixon's leverage as well?  There were reports out there suggesting he might hold out this year.  But i kind of doubt any RB would be crazy enough to play that game of chicken and play another year on a cheap deal like that.

Thoughts?

No chance it happens, the new leverage of them not getting a full year of service time has really eliminated hold outs until it is changed by a new CBA.  So as a fan, I love it, but we'll see if that gets fought for the next time a CBA comes around.

[sparky151]

The increased penalties for holding out are part of the new CBA that was approved earlier this year. It runs for 10 years. 

[THE DUKE]

54 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

The increased penalties for holding out are part of the new CBA that was approved earlier this year. It runs for 10 years. 

Ooof, no real point in holding out in the short term, all you are going to do is piss off fans and alienate yourself from the team.  Work behind closed doors with teams for deals and not through the media is probably the way to go now.  To Mixon's credit, I haven't heard anything from him about it, and i'm sure he's angling for an extension.

[theJ]

I think i'm starting to lean more toward the camp of not giving Joe the extension.  I'd say i'd be ok with it at a big discount, but i'm not sure there's really a number that justifies his worth.  From a clubhouse perspective he's worth something, but we know that RB's just aren't worth jack in general.

Plus i don't think he's going to take a discount.

I'd take that money and use it get AJ back.

[THE DUKE]

Anything $10 mil a year or over and i'd say pass.  4 years, $32-$36 million?  That's about as high as i'd go and we could offload his contract when we have to pay Burrow his big money.

[theJ]

6 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Anything $10 mil a year or over and i'd say pass.  4 years, $32-$36 million?  That's about as high as i'd go and we could offload his contract when we have to pay Burrow his big money.

I'd rather give that to AJ. I know there's a risk there due to injury and age, but he's most likely to make the biggest difference on the field. 

Doesn't look likely to happen, but I'd pay the guy. 

[THE DUKE]

9 hours ago, theJ said:

I'd rather give that to AJ. I know there's a risk there due to injury and age, but he's most likely to make the biggest difference on the field. 

Doesn't look likely to happen, but I'd pay the guy. 

Problem is I don't think AJ takes anything under $15 mil per year.  If we can get AJ Green at under $10 million?  That's a no brainer, even with age/injury, but I don't think he would.