Lets talk about Alvin Kamara

[Canadian Saint]

So if you're any type of Saints fan, you know that we have a bunch of big contract decisions coming up next season. Among them is a new contract for Alvin Kamara.

Lets assume for a moment that next season (if and when it does happen), Kamara bounces back to a much better year than last season. So from there, a few questions come forward:

1.) What is Alvin Kamara worth if his production is closer to his first two seasons than last season?

2.) If you can't agree to a contract extension after the season, do you tag him? Where does he fall on the priority chart in terms of cap space next year?

3.) If a team this year at the draft offers you a late 2nd and 5th for Kamara, do you trade him?

Regarding the 2nd question, here is key players who will need new contracts next season: Lattimore, Ramcyzk, Demario Davis, Marcus Williams, Anzalone, Larry Warford, Jared Cook, Sheldon Rankins.

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Canadian Saint

[Raves]

1)  I value him about 6 mil/yr as a RB, 8 mil/yr as a WR, and about 1 mil/yr as a returner.  Combined that's about 15 mil/yr at the level/progression he showed in his 1st 2 years.

2)  You tag him and see where you are in cap space overall.  RBs are franchised are about 12 mil/yr on the tag which is still a good value since I value him at about 15 mil/yr.

3)  I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd and a 5th.  I would consider a deal similar to that of Cook to be the starting point for Kamara if we were to move him.

 

Bonus:  I think the largest contracts in that group are going to be Lattimore and Ramcyzk.  Lattimore will likely get 16 mil/yr and Ramcyzk will easily be at/higher than Peat's contract.  Davis I think we can keep at around the same price tag we've had him at, Williams I think can be between 6-12 mil depending on how this season plays out, Anzalone I expect about 2-3 mil due to injuries, Warford I think will end up being fairly reasonable at about 6 mil, Cook will be about 3-5 mil, and I think Rankins will get at most a contract similar to Onymeta unless he shows he's fully healthy and able to reproduce what he had going before injury.  At that point I could see him reaching upwords of 12 mil/yr.

[Dome]

On 4/14/2020 at 6:02 PM, Raves said:

1)  I value him about 6 mil/yr as a RB, 8 mil/yr as a WR, and about 1 mil/yr as a returner.  Combined that's about 15 mil/yr at the level/progression he showed in his 1st 2 years.

2)  You tag him and see where you are in cap space overall.  RBs are franchised are about 12 mil/yr on the tag which is still a good value since I value him at about 15 mil/yr.

3)  I wouldn't trade him for a late 2nd and a 5th.  I would consider a deal similar to that of Cook to be the starting point for Kamara if we were to move him.

Good stuff... to add to what you said:
 

1) I’d prefer we invest in a talented RB specifically so we can use Kamara more as a WR and rushing weapon and less like a receiving RB, more like we did his rookie year. I think he’s most valuable as a WR you sneak into the backfield for about 10 carries per game in key moments. I swear his hands are better when he’s lined up as a WR than they are when he’s catching out of the backfield. Plus it should do a lot to keep him fresh and healthy.

I’d be OK paying him $15m per year if the staff viewed him as an elite weapon, not a high end RB. We (hopefully) will be paying a rookie QB salary for 2022 and on, so we can (and should) spend big on weapons.

But we’ve invested so much in our OL (once we sign Ramy) we should be able to have great success with even average RBs and a good game plan. As talented as Kamara is, he’s a luxury.
 

2) It we didn’t view him as a WR like that I’d prefer we not sign him to a long term deal. Lots of teams have found success without paying for top tier RBs.

We could tag him twice, then let him walk after ~$30m and 6 years of use, or tag and play once then tag and trade and trade after the 2nd franchise tag. Sometimes tag and trades are more of a pipe dream than a reality.

3) I think we could get something similar to what we got for Cooks, maybe a bit better. I’d be OK moving him for something like that.

Saints could trade him for a first and established starter at LB, WR or S, or a 1st as the main piece in a package of picks 

[tyler735]

1) I think about 15 million is fair if he has a solid rebound season this year coming off the injuries last season.

2) Unless he is asking to be the highest paid RB in the NFL, I would imagine we reach a deal with him, but if for some reason we don't, I'd certainly put the franchise tag on him. I rank him pretty high on the priority chart. He isn't a typical plug and play RB given his versatility. His skillset isn't easy to find and replace. When healthy he has a huge effect on how defenses play us given his versatility to line up all over the place. There are several articles out there highlighting the effect he has on opposing defenses.

3) No way! Draft picks are already such a gamble, and the odds of a 2nd round pick being anywhere near as good as Kamara are slim. I think Kamara playing much of the season hobbled last year has clouded some peoples memory of just how stinking good the guy is for us. I'm not too worried about the cap as we always seem to find a way to get things done, and on top of that I'm pretty convinced this will be Brees's last season for us, which likely means we are paying substantially less at QB going forward. As we groom in a new QB having guys like Kamara and Thomas would go a long way in making that transition easier. 

[Dome]

4 hours ago, tyler735 said:

1) I think about 15 million is fair if he has a solid rebound season this year coming off the injuries last season.

There are lots of rumors swirling that Kamara won’t play in 2020 without a contract.

 

He may force our hand in two days. 

I almost think the lack of talk about his contract points to Payton readying to deal him 

[tyler735]

10 minutes ago, Dome said:

There are lots of rumors swirling that Kamara won’t play in 2020 without a contract.

 

He may force our hand in two days. 

I almost think the lack of talk about his contract points to Payton readying to deal him 

Hmmm....Has Kamara made any indication that he plans to hold out? Or what rumors are you referring to?

This is the only thing I recall seeing from Kamara in regards to a contract recently:

"During the stream, Kamara was asked to share his thoughts on what McCaffrey’s new contract and what that meant for his own future with the Saints. Kamara is set to make $2.1 million this season in New Orleans and is set to be a free agent in 2021.

“Hey man, look, I don’t even,” Kamara laughed, “I just play football. I’m just a football guy. I don’t worry with all these contracts and all these things, all this money.”"

https://247sports.com/Article/Alvin-Kamara-reacts-to-Christian-McCaffrey-contract-extension-146030779/

[Dome]

On 4/21/2020 at 12:59 PM, tyler735 said:

Hmmm....Has Kamara made any indication that he plans to hold out? Or what rumors are you referring to?

This is the only thing I recall seeing from Kamara in regards to a contract recently:

"During the stream, Kamara was asked to share his thoughts on what McCaffrey’s new contract and what that meant for his own future with the Saints. Kamara is set to make $2.1 million this season in New Orleans and is set to be a free agent in 2021.

“Hey man, look, I don’t even,” Kamara laughed, “I just play football. I’m just a football guy. I don’t worry with all these contracts and all these things, all this money.”"

https://247sports.com/Article/Alvin-Kamara-reacts-to-Christian-McCaffrey-contract-extension-146030779/

Just speculation given what we know and the short shelf life that comes along with being a RB.

Kamara has made it very clear he wants a new deal before the season starts. If he feels the team isn’t taking him seriously he will absolutely hold out, he’s got a ton of leverage with the Saints in “win now” mode and knows this. I don’t think he said he wants to be paid now if he was OK waiting a year.
 

Im sure there have been SOME discussions so the Saints know whether or not they’re in the same ballpark. If they aren’t in the same ballpark he could force their hand, and it would benefit him to do just that.

 

To be honest the smart thing for Kamara to do is hold out for a payday, right now. I wouldn’t blame him one bit if he did. If he doesn’t it will speak a lot to the type of character he’s made of.

[saintsfan]

I would be happy to give Kamara a large 2-3 year deal. I hope its not a 4 or 5 year deal that bites us in the *** down the road

[Dome]

3 minutes ago, saintsfan said:

I would be happy to give Kamara a large 2-3 year deal. I hope its not a 4 or 5 year deal that bites us in the *** down the road

That would put him at 28-29 when his deal ended... he’s probably gonna shoot for a 4 year deal like CMC got 

[Mid Iowa]

Do the Saints have any "counter" leverage due to the fact Kamara had a down year. I know none of us are Doctors, but his play off compared to the prior 2 seasons. Of course his numbers weren't horrible, so maybe we've just gotten used to him being so good.

I'd like to see the kid get paid, and I'd like to see his style get back to the way it was the first 2 seasons.