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Draft Busts

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1 minute ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Barrow and Tau...you been on the VBs this evening haven't you ;)

Not just this evening pretty much the whole month not a lot to do in self isolation 😛

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Herbert - Completely agree with the Trubisky 2.0 take.  He's a guy that lacks "it"

Love - Shouldn't be a 1st rd pick, but some team will be desperate for a QB

Wills - I just don't see an elite

Ruggs - An overwhelming amount of his production was against smaller schools in games that didn't matter.  Look at Bama's biggest games and he's got pedestrian stats

Tua - Love love love the talent, but man I do not trust his injury history.  Both ankles, a freaking major hip injury and an unreported broken wrist. Yikes.  Not a bust per se, I just don't see him staying healthy

Austin Jackson - Doesn't have the dog in him.  Relies on athleticism which will get you burned in the NFL on the oline.

Murray - Despite his size/athleticism, his run grades were fairly pedestrian, and why would Oklahoma ask an athlete like that to never drop into coverage?  Big red flags to me.

Delpit - Injuries slowed him down in 2019, but I also saw a lot of bad angles and bad tackling.  Wasn't even one of the 5 best LSU defenders in the playoff.

AJ Terrell - I think he plays stiffer than he tests, lacks instincts.

I actually think this Edge group is under rated.  Maybe not a PoY guy, but I think Chaisson, YGM, and Epenesa are all solid pros.  I'm a believer in Baun, diluted sample or not (since when does the NFL really care anyway)

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21 minutes ago, Aussie9er said:

Busts for me

1. Barrow i just don't see bengals putting right players around him to succeed long term. 

Back to back 1000 yard WR in Tyler Boyd, AJ Green is supposedly 100% after sitting out all of last year, Joe Mixon is a top 10 RB in the NFL right now, they drafted a LT rd 1 last year who is back healthy, and there is a good chance of adding another weapon (Reagor, Mims) or more protection (Jones, Wilson, Ruiz) at 33 in this draft.  The Bengals have always surrounded their new QBs with talent.  Carson Palmer had Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Chris Henry and a very good oline after a couple years (Levi Jones, Eric Steinbach, Willie Anderson, Bobby Williams).  Andy Dalton had AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Mo Sanu, Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard and had a very good oline his first 5 years (Whitworth, Zeitler, Boling, Smith).  Saying they can't/won't put players around Burrow is the laziest of lazy takes.  The 1990's are 3 decades ago.

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TBH, I don't know if Burrow will ever be "elite", but he may be as safe of a QB prospect as I've seen in a while. Worst case scenario, I see Cousins 2.0. He's got elite accuracy/anticipation, and that means "solid" in the NFL.

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26 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

TBH, I don't know if Burrow will ever be "elite", but he may be as safe of a QB prospect as I've seen in a while. Worst case scenario, I see Cousins 2.0. He's got elite accuracy/anticipation, and that means "solid" in the NFL.

I certainly like Burrow's upside more than I did Andy Dalton in 2011

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1 hour ago, Aussie9er said:

Busts for me

1. Barrow i just don't see bengals putting right players around him to succeed long term. 

How do you figure that?

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13 hours ago, VanS said:

QB Joe Burrow (LSU)

DE Chase Young (Ohio St.)

WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)

WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)

WR Henry Ruggs III (Alabama)

QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)

QB Jordan Love (Utah St.)

CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson)

 

As you can see I don't think much of this draft class at the top of the 1st round.

 

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8 hours ago, VanS said:

End of the 1st round/2nd round is essentially the same.  My point is that the only WR I'm taking high is one that checks all the boxes like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, etc.

You should know by now I don't care for stats.  Especially passing/receiving stats in the new pass happy NFL.  I view the WR position as a dependant position so I don't give much stock to their statistical production anyways.  I look instead for guys with game changing ability.  The type that take a short 5 yard pass 80 yards for a TD.  Or the type that will win 50/50 balls down the field for big plays.  A receiver like Michael Thomas for example who is just catching 10 yard routes doesn't impress me regardless of how much statistical production he accumulates.

How nice that you don't care about NFL production when it comes time for you to defend your method.

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Those are the players I see not living up to their draft status (probably all 1st round picks or high 2nd rounders): 
Herbert 
CeeDee Lamb (still think he's going to be an average WR, just not one worthy of a top-15 selection)
Becton 
Chaisson (his pass win % is sooo low and the tape is very underwhelming for a top-20 selection) 
K. Fulton 
AJ Terrell 
McKinney 


 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Your delusion knows no bounds. You anointed Josh Allen the next Dan Marino and said he was the best player in the draft, not Lamar Jackson. And taking Lamar Jackson #1 isn’t going to be a long-term good take. 
 

And do we really need to dig up your epic failures to prove to you that you’re not the Nostradamus of the draft? Telling people about the 1-2 wild predictions you had coming true doesn’t mean anyone here respects your “analysis.”  Have fun on your island. 

You might want to do a simple search of this forum.  Here's the thread I am talking about:  

 

My argument was simple.  If you want the most immediate impact with the 1st overall pick in the 2018 draft then select Lamar Jackson.  His athleticism will overwhelm the league early on.  By year 2 he was the unanimous MVP of the league so I would say that take turned out to be right.  FTR I still think Josh Allen will be the better player long term.  So I'm not backing off that take.  But in terms of early impact I was 100% right about Lamar Jackson being a phenomenon when most thought he would struggle in transitioning to the NFL.

FYI before you jump on the part in that post where I say I don't have Lamar as a top 10 overall prospect like @jrry32 did a few months ago just know I amended that take two months later before the draft.  I ended up rating Lamar my 5th rated overall prospect ahead of the 2018 draft.  Here's the thread on that take:

 

Edited by VanS

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

How nice that you don't care about NFL production when it comes time for you to defend your method.

You can't tell the difference between a receiver like Michael Thomas and Julio Jones?  

Gimme Julio Jones anyday of the week.  I don't care what numbers a guy like Michael Thomas puts up.  He will never impact the game the way an athlete of Julio's caliber impacts the game.

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29 minutes ago, VanS said:

You can't tell the difference between a receiver like Michael Thomas and Julio Jones?  

Gimme Julio Jones anyday of the week.  I don't care what numbers a guy like Michael Thomas puts up.  He will never impact the game the way an athlete of Julio's caliber impacts the game.

1. Refusing to draft any WR in the first round who isn't Julio Jones is a silly argument. A WR can be first round caliber without being Julio Jones.

2. The differences between Thomas and Jones don't ultimately matter if Thomas does more for the team.

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

1. Refusing to draft any WR in the first round who isn't Julio Jones is a silly argument. A WR can be first round caliber without being Julio Jones.

2. The differences between Thomas and Jones don't ultimately matter if Thomas does more for the team.

Thomas doesn't do more for the team.  Its the team that schemes him more opportunities.  Put a superior athlete like Julio in his place and Julio does more.

With regard to the draft, my philosophy is simple.  Why take a player in the 1st round if a similar talent can be found later in the draft?  Guys like Julio are rare that is why they warrant high 1st round status.  Guys like Michael Thomas are common and can be found every year in the middle rounds.  I would rather use my 1st round pick on rare traits than common ones.

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9 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Taking Lamar Jackson #1 isn’t going to be a long-term good take. 

While I certainly can't say I agree with everything VanS says, how would Lamar not be a good "long term take" coming off an MVP season? I'd gladly take 5-10 years of what Lamar Jackson has to offer over a QB that may have better longevity, but less of an impact overall on their team like the current number 1 pick in that draft Baker Mayfield.

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Just now, VanS said:

Thomas doesn't do more for the team.  Its the team that schemes him more opportunities.  Put a superior athlete like Julio in his place and Julio does more.

You sure? Julio has had a good QB his entire career. Yes, Brees is better, but Thomas better fits Brees's skill-set at this point in his career. Brees isn't a great vertical passer anymore. 

Quote

With regard to the draft, my philosophy is simple.  Why take a player in the 1st round if a similar talent can be found later in the draft?  Guys like Julio are rare that is why they warrant high 1st round status.  Guys like Michael Thomas are common and can be found every year in the middle rounds.  I would rather use my 1st round pick on rare traits than common ones.

Guys like Michael Thomas are not common and cannot be found every year in the middle rounds. Your philosophy is a bad one. You totally discount skill and football IQ as if every player can and will develop them. 

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