Draft Busts

[Hunter2_1]

16 hours ago, CaliforniaKid7 said:

Michael Pittman Jr?

I don’t think he’s even been labeled as a physical freak, at least by those who have watched him play. He had an amazing year this year but he’s put up good numbers since he was a sophomore in what’s always a fairy crowded USC pass catching field. 

If you think MPJ will bust that’s your opinion but it won’t be because he was a late bloomer or relied on his physical attributes. 

I think he meant breakout 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, YogiBiz said:

If he could run routes intermediate routes at decent level I would agree. You just really have to like this guys game. He just needs to be better running other routes besides a 9 or a slant, which would take him from a pretty good #2, to a dominant pass catcher. Although that 4.43 speed never shows up on tape, i believe he's a marginal athlete at best. For a jump ball guy, reportedly only hitting 31" on his vertical is bad.  

Some guys play more athletic than they test.  I think Tee Higgins is one of those guys.

[YogiBiz]

3 minutes ago, VanS said:

Some guys play more athletic than they test.  I think Tee Higgins is one of those guys.

Ehhh, he definitely doesn't look like a 4.43 guy on tape.

I definitely thought he would jump closer to 40" than 30". It could be he just has 34" arms and he knows how to not drop the ball. On tape Higgins looks pretty lackluster athletically, I always though he just had the ability to out jump people. His catch radius is the best (and really most appealing) part of his game, if his vertical is only average that takes a knock as well. 

[SaveOurSonics]

22 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

He was at like 48 last season so its been close. I am not arguing that those guys were not far better values (That draft produced some insane WR talent). But that he is a bust based on draft position rather than on field play. He shouldnt be in the same conversation as the other Mike Williams or Treadwell IMO. 

I didn't mention him with those guys. I just said relative to where he was drafted, he hasn't returned close to equal value yet. 

[jrry32]

6 hours ago, YogiBiz said:

Ehhh, he definitely doesn't look like a 4.43 guy on tape.

I definitely thought he would jump closer to 40" than 30". It could be he just has 34" arms and he knows how to not drop the ball. On tape Higgins looks pretty lackluster athletically, I always though he just had the ability to out jump people. His catch radius is the best (and really most appealing) part of his game, if his vertical is only average that takes a knock as well. 

Vertical isn't important. Length, body control, timing, hand strength/technique, physicality, and ball-tracking ability are what makes or breaks a contested-catch WR. It's not about out-jumping people. It's about playing the ball in the air. And you're also almost never going to be standing still (NFL verticals aren't measured on the run in game-like conditions).

[jrry32]

11 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

I think with Higgins, he needs to land with a team that can play to his skill-set. He's not quick or explosive, but he can separate late vertically and does have a big catching radius. So ideally he lands somewhere where they can make use of his vertical long speed and/or with a quarterback who is happy to throw it up where the window might be a little tighter. Kind of reminds me of those long striding receivers who used to thrive with Rivers and Norv in San Diego, (Jackson, Floyd etc). 

He's quick for his size. It shows up in his YAC.

8 hours ago, jebrick said:

I loved Higgins up until he got shut down in CFP.  Jamming him on the line just took him out of the game.  Sure, an OC can scheme him so he can't be jammed but that is not a 1st round pick.

You can teach releases. A guy who is 6'4" with 34+ inch arms, quick feet (for his size), and physicality can get it down if he's willing to work and is coachable.

[FalconFan13]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:48 AM, FalconFan13 said:

I'll go with

YGM
Henderson
Okawara
Fulton
Aiyuk
Love
Davis

And i honestly don't think any of them will be straight garbage but those are the guys im lowest on right now that has a chance to go late 1st to early 2nd.

I would like to make a change to this list and say after watching 3 full days of Henderson video and reviews for my peoples Concealer and Jrry  That i will not call Henderson a bust UNLESS he lands on a Zone scheme team.   If he lands on a man to man  press scheme he might end up being the best CB in this draft.  But if he lands on a Zone scheme ran team i think he will struggle quite a bit. 

This is also why i never could understand why i didn't like him for the Falcons for the longest of times until it dawned on me that when we swapped to Morris as DC last year and went away from Quinn.  We went from a man to man scheme under Quinn and getting destroyed to a Cover2 / Cover3 Zone team that played to our strengths and it changed night and day. 

The Falcons’ identity last season was one of Jekyll and Hyde. Over the first eight games, they were abysmal. Over the last eight games, with Morris in charge, they were a top-10 elite unit in several key categories.

They went from the bottom of the league to top ten in takeaways (32nd to tied for second), sacks (32nd to tied for 10th), passes defenses (31st to tied for fourth), opponent drive-scoring efficiency (32nd to ninth) and opponent red-zone efficiency (31st to sixth).   


So i still say i have no interest in Henderson to the Falcons based on i see him as a very very good man 2 man guy and in that system will be great.   But for our zone scheme under Morris i don't see him as a good fit nor want him as the choice still.

[Scoundrel]

46 minutes ago, FalconFan13 said:

I would like to make a change to this list and say after watching 3 full days of Henderson video and reviews for my peoples Concealer and Jrry  That i will not call Henderson a bust UNLESS he lands on a Zone scheme team.   If he lands on a man to man  press scheme he might end up being the best CB in this draft.  But if he lands on a Zone scheme ran team i think he will struggle quite a bit. 

This is also why i never could understand why i didn't like him for the Falcons for the longest of times until it dawned on me that when we swapped to Morris as DC last year and went away from Quinn.  We went from a man to man scheme under Quinn and getting destroyed to a Cover2 / Cover3 Zone team that played to our strengths and it changed night and day. 

The Falcons’ identity last season was one of Jekyll and Hyde. Over the first eight games, they were abysmal. Over the last eight games, with Morris in charge, they were a top-10 elite unit in several key categories.

They went from the bottom of the league to top ten in takeaways (32nd to tied for second), sacks (32nd to tied for 10th), passes defenses (31st to tied for fourth), opponent drive-scoring efficiency (32nd to ninth) and opponent red-zone efficiency (31st to sixth).   


So i still say i have no interest in Henderson to the Falcons based on i see him as a very very good man 2 man guy and in that system will be great.   But for our zone scheme under Morris i don't see him as a good fit nor want him as the choice still.

I’ve been called a lot of things but Concealer is a first... 

[Forge]

I really can't stop thinking that Kinlaw is going to bust hard. 

[Swift21]

Herbert, Ruggs and Wirfs would be in my top 3.

[Fullback]

Busts are the beauty of the draft. Some have Derrick Brown as a surefire stud DT. Others say his athleticism is subpar and that he will be a pure run clogger without pass rush upside. Some have Kinlaw as a wreaking machine, while others say he will bust. Same argument could be made for almost any consensual blue chip talent in this class.

I have to say this: Hardly ever scouts/GMs fail on the talent. Talent is visible on tape. Additionally you have athletic testing numbers and position specific drills as well. But what makes a player a bust are his heart and head. Those are the things you can't measure. Great personalities have failed, bad characters have succeeded. There isn't a formula that works generally. If you guess right about those invisible traits 60% of the time you are already a genius GM.

All players that get 1st round consideration hit the minimum bar on physical tools and game tape to warrant their status. Next thing is scheme fit. You can go across all positions - if you don't fit the scheme, you won't make a great impact at the highest level of pro football. Vice versa, if you are a below average talent with limited tools but play in the right scheme, you can be an above average player for a long time. Then finally as mentioned above, you can't measure the invisible traits. Lots of solid NFL vets who have long careers but never really dominate because they just don't have the fire and desire. And some even more talented guys flame out totally because the fire is gone once they get that 1st signing bonus.

Bottol line, in the 1st round you want a player with fire, passion and desire - along with the necessary physical tools and skills. The latter is easier to measure than the former. That's why most 1st round busts fail because of the person they are and not because of lacking skill. For my liking many scouts/GMs mistake being good or bad character with general football character. I don't need a saint but someone who leaves it all on the field and works hard to dominate.

[FalconFan13]

2 hours ago, Counselor said:

I’ve been called a lot of things but Concealer is a first... 

lol auto correct got me i guess i just had figured it was spelling it right since their were no red lines when it auto corrected it and didn't recheck it.   oh well im sure you are needing a touchup of something on that face of yours work with it Concealer

[FalconFan13]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

I really can't stop thinking that Kinlaw is going to bust hard. 

 The knee injuries are a real concern and i can't blame people for thinking that way.  Peria Jerry who showed extremely well for the Falcons his 1st year or so went down quick bc of knee injuries and never was the same and had to retire early in his career.

[THE DUKE]

2 hours ago, Swift21 said:

Herbert, Ruggs and Wirfs would be in my top 3.

I think Wirfs floor is Robert Gallery.  If all else fails, he's likely at least a solid guard.

[minutemancl]

2 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

 The knee injuries are a real concern and i can't blame people for thinking that way.  Peria Jerry who showed extremely well for the Falcons his 1st year or so went down quick bc of knee injuries and never was the same and had to retire early in his career.

Oh man, I remember this forum going nuts for Peria Jerry back in the day.