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Draft Busts


HeydudemanG

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4 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

 The knee injuries are a real concern and i can't blame people for thinking that way.  Peria Jerry who showed extremely well for the Falcons his 1st year or so went down quick bc of knee injuries and never was the same and had to retire early in his career.

 

1 hour ago, minutemancl said:

Oh man, I remember this forum going nuts for Peria Jerry back in the day.

Wow that is a guy I had completely forgotten about 

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4 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

I think Wirfs floor is Robert Gallery.  If all else fails, he's likely at least a solid guard.

Wirfs Michigan tape is terrifying, but I agree. I have him as my 4th OT simply because I don't trust his transition to the blindside and he has a number of bad habits. 

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6 hours ago, minutemancl said:

Oh man, I remember this forum going nuts for Peria Jerry back in the day.

For good reason i loved the guy coming out and actually had him in my mock draft to the Falcons i was super hype for that pick.   He was really impressive his 1st year here and the Fans were excited for his future.   Thats the 1 thing i never really blame on the GM's when i do hit or misses is the injury thing because you just can't control it really. 

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5 hours ago, Counselor said:

 

Wow that is a guy I had completely forgotten about 

Most people have which is sad because he had alot of potential and was starting to reach it before the knees got him.    I know i want Kinlaw as a talent and player but that does giv me some pause.   I wonder how GM's are feeling about it and if he takes a tumble in the draft bc of it instead of being a top 16 lock like most thought he was.

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TE - Wilcox. Otherwise so difficult to find someone who isnt middle of the road. Liking Asiasi to go top 100.

DE - Okwara if he can't get off blocks. I love his athleticism though. Epenesa could have issues if he's asked to be a non 5'T. Otherwise Garvin.

S - Delpit early...Floyd Carter Mayden and Dorn late.

CB - Igbigonhene if he doesn't learn to turn around to the ball on deep plays.

WR - Reagor. Drops and fumbles are concerning even with poor QB play. Otherwise the obvious  - Jennings, C Johnson, Gandy-Golden

RB - MacFarland, Gibson, Leake if they dont pass protect on their 3rd down opportunities.

DT - Leki Fotu looks really big but really non athletic on tape.

LB - Not sure I have one, maybe Anfernee Jennings. If Simmons asked to do too much cover go and back-pedal I can see this becoming an issue.

QB - Jalen Hurts if he's asked to work in a high powered offense to make all the NFL throws

OT - Wirfs might struggle initially, but won't bust, as an early draftee. Frantz and McKivitz late.

OG - Netane Muti just looks like he lacks the movement skills to successful

C - Biadasz if his medical proves to be an issue

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On 4/16/2020 at 3:56 PM, m haynes said:

Never mind.

A few negative notes. Not saying "busts" but am saying red flags or unlikely to match projected draft status - and by "projected" I mean what the media sez, not the teams.

Burrow - incredibly accurate and smart, so he will be okay, but closer to Colt McCoy than Aaron Rodgers. Between the genius play schemes, limitless talent at his targets, and a good OL, he threw against air a lot, even in the SEC. Very good at throwing against air, but I don't think he makes all those throws in the NFL with a limited arm strength and a Bengal OL that still needs to improve. Love a lot of his game, like his competitiveness, which is why he is going #1, but he's not my #1.

Tua - I think he has some pocket awareness issues, which contribute to his injury issues. If I saw one without the other, I would pull the trigger, but not with both. I saw some plays with Tua as far away from the blindside rusher as I am to this monitor without showing any movement or rush to throw. So he either has incredible confidence in Wills or is just not aware, which helps explain why they never moved Wills to the left side.

Chase Young - Does one thing better than anyone else on the planet, and that one thing will make him a top of money. What else does he do? I want someone more interested in the other stuff, like setting edges and hustling every play and stuff like that. Like Burrow, his supporting cast helped cover his flaws.

Odukah - was ripped by Chris Simms as not being special, and while I'm not ready to embrace that position I can't argue against it. I love his intangibles, but not sure I would not rather have Henderson.

Kinlaw - I have flags, but a lot of it may just be injuries. Shouldn't punish people for playing through pain, but it is hard to know from the outside which is which.

Brown - merge him with Chase Young and I'd give up 3 first rounders for him. Think he is going to be good not Top 5 good.

Becton - will throw people around, which is nice, but does not know the game

Wirfs - needs some pass pro coaching but comes from Iowa? Seriously?

Baum - maybe I just saw the wrong plays in the wrong games....

Love - I want to believe he regressed cuz no talent around him, but I have not seen a qb regress and then move forward again. I really want to love Love.

YGM - Great edge-setting but not a pass rusher. At all. Don't care how he tests. He is not athletic. Probably does not process information quickly enough. I have a mid-round grade on him at best.

Eason - pushed out of UGa by a less talented qb for a reason. Great arm strength is a dangerous form of scout hypnosis.

 

ADD Austin Jackson - soft. Will draw a paycheck but will never earn it.

 

Edited by Techbert
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11 hours ago, dulatows said:

QB - Jalen Hurts if he's asked to work in a high powered offense to make all the NFL throws

If Hurts is asked to be accurate over 20 yard throws  there will be an issue.  I can't understand the love for this guy.  Has the arm strength but his accuracy is not good and his decision making is suspect.  I would rather have Fromm or Morgan than Hurts.

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I think there will be a few highly regarded WR's that don't pan out, or are at least overdrafted for their production output.

Some guys that will be drafted fairly early I think will bust/underperform include:

KJ Hamler- I've seen him compared to guys like Desean Jackson, but I think people are going to be very disappointed if they are expecting that at the next level. He strikes me as more Tavon Austin than Desean Jackson. He's undoubtedly very quick and explosive, but doesn't seem to have much of a catch radius, below average hands, and is a body catcher. 

Henry Ruggs- I liken him to Ted Ginn. He has better hands than Ginn, but he wasn't all that productive on a stacked Alabama team. I've seen some say he was the 3rd/4th best WR on the team. Didn't really establish himself as the deep threat you'd hope he would be with all the explosiveness he possesses. Production against quality opponents also wasn't that notable. I think he can develop into a good deep threat in the NFL, but I don't think he will develop into being worth a top 20 pick.

Jalen Reagor- If he goes in the 1st round, I think he will put up disappointing numbers relative to draft position, but if he makes it the 2nd round, I think he will perform a bit closer to expectations as to where he was drafted. He was undoubtedly dynamic in college, but he may not be able to get away with quite as much at the next level where defenses will be a touch faster. He reminds me a lot of a guy like Nelson Agholar who was electric in college, but didn't really have the top end explosiveness to replicate it in the NFL, and also has some drop issues much like Reagor. If Reagor can clean the drops up, I could see him panning out better than expected as I've seen TCU fans mention he has had some brutal QB play to work with that has limited him a bit, but at least at this point I'd be skeptical using a 1st on him.

Tee Higgins- I used to fall into this trap pretty often with WR's in the draft with the throw it up and they will out jump the defender to come down with it type WR. It's very fun to watch in college, but seems it often doesn't pan out in the NFL. I just see too much that reminds me of a Limas Sweed, Dwayne Jarrett, Jonathan Baldwin, etc type when it comes to Higgins. Isn't really a good route runner, doesn't have that great of athleticism. I saw someone mention Tyrell Williams as a comparison and I think that is a pretty realistic Higgins comparison if all goes right for him. 

 

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Outside of Higgins, which I helped fan the flame of debate here, I think I'm going to double down with my dislike of Murray and Baum.

Baum is a DE in a SS body and not a plus athlete. If his upside is Patriots Van Noy, thats just not good enough for a first round gamble (I always evaluate the spectrum of possibilities, not just floor and ceiling). Every profile marks athleticism as a bonus and while tape matters, I wonder how much of the discrepancy is that he is 40lbs lighter than the players around him and just looks relatively faster.

Murray. He reminds me of Taylor Mays and Jabrill Peppers (yes I know different positions) in that everything looks good on paper, he's a great kid/person but just lacks in instincts. In a very specific role, with other team mates to line him up in the right spots, he can be a useful piece to some extent. We talk about guys that keep offensive coordinators up at night. Murray is that type of player because of how many different ways OCs are going to attack and bait him out of position.

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23 minutes ago, viper952 said:

Dude, it's a morning measurement.

Most of the day he's maybe 6-3 1/4

If he was measured 6-3.75 you would have a point

Are you kidding me? He measured in at 6'3.625". You're honestly arguing that if he measured in 1/8th of an inch taller that he's really 6'4", but because he measured in at only 5/8ths instead of 6/8ths, he's actually 6'3"? Go waste somebody else's time with this nonsense.

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