101's Mock

[broncosfan_101]

Hey, I just ranted about team specific mocks and how inaccurate I find them to be, so why not do my own??

I've been playing around with PFF's new mock simulator. It's great, and I think extremely realistic. This is my best attempt, but honestly, it's very close to how it plays out most times. Full disclosure: the 'board' I used was 25% PFF, 75% public (which is taken from GrindingTheMocks, the fantastic rankings aggregator.) Draft for needs was set at 'a little', consider positional value was 'yes', and randomness was 'less random'. I'll include the grade each pick was given, with 60.0 being an average pick.

1.15: Javon Kinlaw, DL South Carolina (65.6) - As with most simulations I ran, all 3 top WR's were off the board by 1.11. The choice was between Kinlaw, Henderson, and Becton (who PFF is very low on). I've got Kinlaw as clear BPA among those, and I don't love the 34DL class after the top 50ish. If I want one, why not take the best one in the draft? Incredible explosion. Would thrive as Fangio's new version of Akiem Hicks. I'm not sure why the grade on this pick is so low, guessing because DL isn't considered a primary need for us in 2020? But Kinlaw's a foundational building block on D. 

2.46: Michael Pittman Jr, WR USC (98.2) - The second tier of WR's flies off the board between our picks. Pittman's the 10th WR taken, the last of the expected difference makers. Pretty good athlete, excellent hands. Honestly reminds me of a slightly less slippery Courtland Sutton. 

3.77: Troy Pride Jr, CB Notre Dame (69.4) - Another pick where I'm right near the bottom of the positional tier at a primary need. This is a bet on athleticism, as I think he'll be a better press corner than a zone guy, but the most important part of playing corner is covering, and he's very good at it.

3.85: Lucas Niang, OT TCU (66.0) - I really like this value. I don't think he ever turns into an impact starter, but I don't think there's any reason he can't be an average one at any spot across the OL. If you're into the mantra of not wanting to notice your offensive linemen, for better or worse, Niang's your guy. 

3.95: Amik Robertson, CB Louisiana Tech (67.9) - Small, but super fierce. More comfortable playing in off coverage than press, and real eager to jump into the run game. He'd be a fixture as Fangio's slot CB for a long time. 

4.118: Logan Wilson, ILB Wyoming (64.9) - Really really good athlete, looks extremely natural in coverage. Great tackler. 

5.178: Jason Strowbridge, DL North Carolina (63.9) - Clearly BPA at this point, even though I don't think there's any more need for defensive linemen. Not sure he could carry the bulk to play 34DE, but again, it's a bet on talent. 

6.181: Lamical Perine, RB Florida (58.5) - My only below average pick! But I like what I've read about Perine in the passing game. Caught 40 passes last season, and a reliable blocker. Could make Melvin Gordon expendable after 2020. 

7.252: Kevin Davidson, QB Princeton (95.6)  - Don't pay attention to that grade, any QB in the late rounds gets a 95+. I know nothing about Davidson, but I've read he's good at reading defences, and he's an Ivy Leaguer. Could be groomed into a longtime backup who helps Lock in QB meetings?

7.254: Derrek Tuszka, EDGE North Dakota State (62.6) - I mentioned liking Tuszka in AAA's mock, as a hyper-productive player in the best FBS program. But he's an edge rusher whose arms would be average for a corner. That generally makes for a low ceiling, which isn't ideal in the late rounds. But sometimes you just bet on a football player. 

PFF gave me a 77.8 grade for this draft. I'd absolutely take that. My only regret is not finding a safety, but there's nowhere to grab a decent one, unless you trade down a few spots and grab McKinney. I'll keep Kinlaw and just give Simmons all the money. 

[Scoundrel]

Give me 85, 95, 118 all day.

If Kinlaw is BPA he is BPA. Pittman I would hope we could move down from 46 and get him. I’m not a Pride fan. 

[broncosfan_101]

12 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Give me 85, 95, 118 all day.

If Kinlaw is BPA he is BPA. Pittman I would hope we could move down from 46 and get him. I’m not a Pride fan. 

Personally I think Pittman fits very well in the mid-40's, but I also wouldn't be willing to lose out on him and be forced into the Hamler/Claypool/Jefferson tier. 

[Scoundrel]

2 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Personally I think Pittman fits very well in the mid-40's, but I also wouldn't be willing to lose out on him and be forced into the Hamler/Claypool/Jefferson tier. 

Hamler might end up the better prospect 

[BroncoBruin]

I think Pittman is the surest thing of the Day 2 receivers, he just doesn’t give you the dynamic athleticism that some of the others do. But I think the floor is very high.

Kinlaw in that spot is fine. It’s not my favorite scenario but he has the ceiling that can make dropping to 15 feel pretty stupid in a couple years. 

I think the Broncos will have to consider moving up into the 2nd if they want a CB who can get on the field early. Love Robertson though.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by BroncoBruin

[broncos67]

6 hours ago, Counselor said:

Hamler might end up the better prospect 

I am not a Hamler fan (and it has nothing to do with my hatred of PSU). He's blazing fast, yes, but he's also very limited in what/where he can line up, and I have definite questions about his hands.

[broncos67]

I could live with this draft. The Rounds 2-3-4 picks especially are excellent in my mind. Good value and seemingly a lot of early-on contributors.

[germ-x]

I could live with it.  I like both Kinlaw and Pittman.  However, I think this draft outlines the fact that things could fall where Denver is missing out on better players that are BPAs at positions of need.  #15, #46, and #77 especially seem like fringe spots where you’re crossing your fingers a guy you want is there or going with plan B when they aren’t.

[broncosfan_101]

7 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

I think Pittman is the surest thing of the Day 2 receivers, he just doesn’t give you the dynamic athleticism that some of the others do. But I think the floor is very high.

Kinlaw in that spot is fine. It’s not my favorite scenario but he has the ceiling that can make dropping to 15 feel pretty stupid in a couple years. 

I think the Broncos will have to consider moving up into the 2nd if they want a CB who can get on the field early. Love Robertson though.

 

I ran another simulation after this where I traded down a bit for McKinney, and used the extra ammo to move up into the 50’s for Arnette. The rest turned out basically the same, except taking Raekwon Davis instead of Robertson in the 3rd, and my grade came out even higher (81ish). I just don’t love any scenario where I’m using my first pick on a 3rd safety in his first year. 

[BroncosFan2010]

I actually really like this draft. I have warmed on Pittman, he may not be dynamic but he can move the chains, has a great catch radius (A young QB's dream), blocks extremely well and, fitting with our past few drafts, is super competitive and high character. 

Don't love Pride, but can live with it. Dont see the RB making this team, but if its BPA then its BPA. Otherwise, its a lot of guys that I really like. 

[BroncoBruin]

4 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I ran another simulation after this where I traded down a bit for McKinney, and used the extra ammo to move up into the 50’s for Arnette. The rest turned out basically the same, except taking Raekwon Davis instead of Robertson in the 3rd, and my grade came out even higher (81ish). I just don’t love any scenario where I’m using my first pick on a 3rd safety in his first year. 

I like that draft better tbh, you’d feel great about the future of the secondary. I’d imagine McKinney fills the Parks role from last year  as a hybrid nickel and plays a lot. He’s my favorite trade down target. Saban had a lot of trust in him and he showed the ability to take on any responsibility. Not a booming hitter or a freak athlete but he’s going to be a solid player for a long time. 

[Broncofan]

I won't say no to Kinlaw in that scenario, but it's the most meh of the BPA scenarios (any other T than Becton and I jump there).   Still, I'm a BPA purist for Rd1, and that group, I can't argue it, Kinlaw's the best of the guys remaining, and IMO it's not that close.

Pittman's a good choice but I do wonder if there's more value to be mined than 46.  The class is that deep.   Niang, Robertson & Wilson are all great value picks.

Love Perine at Rd6.  That's the kind of pick we need to make, no way we want to be forced to pay MG3 next year if we don't have to.   Keep our options open, most likely a 3rd down back, but stranger things have happened.

[broncosfan_101]

53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I won't say no to Kinlaw in that scenario, but it's the most meh of the BPA scenarios (any other T than Becton and I jump there).   Still, I'm a BPA purist for Rd1, and that group, I can't argue it, Kinlaw's the best of the guys remaining, and IMO it's not that close.

Pittman's a good choice but I do wonder if there's more value to be mined than 46.  The class is that deep.   Niang, Robertson & Wilson are all great value picks.

Love Perine at Rd6.  That's the kind of pick we need to make, no way we want to be forced to pay MG3 next year if we don't have to.   Keep our options open, most likely a 3rd down back, but stranger things have happened.

Even though we play lots of 2-DL sets, that unit’s outlook is pretty scary after this season. Shelby and Purcell are both UFA’s, and Jurrell’s gonna be 31 making almost $13M, with no guarantee. Those could easily be the 3 guys who play the most snaps in 2020, and they could easily all be gone in 2021. Rebuilding a DL with DeMarcus Walker and Dre’Mont Jones as the anchors is not appealing at all, so grabbing a foundational piece like Kinlaw would be exciting. Obviously there are other potential options who could provide more value in 2020 (thinking mostly of Thomas/Wirfs/Wills, but also the WR’s), but if the window really is 2021 and beyond, Kinlaw’s as impactful as anyone else that could be available. 

As for Pittman, I know he’s not the most exciting, but after him, there’s no one left with his combination of ceiling+floor. Hamler, Claypool, Bowden could be better! But I don’t think any of them has anything close to the floor that Pittman does. 

[DiehardBronxFan]

12 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Even though we play lots of 2-DL sets, that unit’s outlook is pretty scary after this season. Shelby and Purcell are both UFA’s, and Jurrell’s gonna be 31 making almost $13M, with no guarantee. Those could easily be the 3 guys who play the most snaps in 2020, and they could easily all be gone in 2021. Rebuilding a DL with DeMarcus Walker and Dre’Mont Jones as the anchors is not appealing at all, so grabbing a foundational piece like Kinlaw would be exciting. Obviously there are other potential options who could provide more value in 2020 (thinking mostly of Thomas/Wirfs/Wills, but also the WR’s), but if the window really is 2021 and beyond, Kinlaw’s as impactful as anyone else that could be available. 

As for Pittman, I know he’s not the most exciting, but after him, there’s no one left with his combination of ceiling+floor. Hamler, Claypool, Bowden could be better! But I don’t think any of them has anything close to the floor that Pittman does. 

I read a great article recently on analytics a positional draft value that argues pretty strongly that, of our potential areas of need, DL is clearly the best positional value in round 1 - by a pretty good margin.  Primarily because the bust rate is low, and the drop off to rounds 2+ plus is (typically) relatively high.  This jives with my gut as well.  I’m actually kind of hoping the Broncos get “forced” into Kinlaw.  Not the sexy pick of one of the 3 premier WR. But when considering the depth of this draft in WR, The bust rate or RD 1 WR, and the high frequency of top WR’s coming from lower in the draft, I just think going after one of the top WR at 15 (and heaven forbid trading UP for one of them), is a poor use of draft capital.  
 

the biggest problem is that by not picking up a viable WR2 in Free agency, Elway has boxed himself in.  He almost HAS to take a WR in Rd 1 or 2.  And if he passes in round one, he’s locked into one for round 2. And at 46, the way the majority of T2 receivers seem to be going between 16 and 45 in mock draft, he could be picking the “bottom of the T2 barrel”.

its a real conundrum, which is why I think they are talking about trading up for another pick between 15 and 46.  But ultimately, I don’t think Elway will go Kinlaw.  He wants WR, CB, OT with his first 3 picks (in whatever order), and that’s what he will do, regardless of BPA (unfortunately).

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Even though we play lots of 2-DL sets, that unit’s outlook is pretty scary after this season. Shelby and Purcell are both UFA’s, and Jurrell’s gonna be 31 making almost $13M, with no guarantee. Those could easily be the 3 guys who play the most snaps in 2020, and they could easily all be gone in 2021. Rebuilding a DL with DeMarcus Walker and Dre’Mont Jones as the anchors is not appealing at all, so grabbing a foundational piece like Kinlaw would be exciting. Obviously there are other potential options who could provide more value in 2020 (thinking mostly of Thomas/Wirfs/Wills, but also the WR’s), but if the window really is 2021 and beyond, Kinlaw’s as impactful as anyone else that could be available. 

As for Pittman, I know he’s not the most exciting, but after him, there’s no one left with his combination of ceiling+floor. Hamler, Claypool, Bowden could be better! But I don’t think any of them has anything close to the floor that Pittman does. 

That’s fair.  I’m a huge fan of ceiling but I don’t want the zero floor guys Elway fell for in 2013-7.   Bowden though is a guy I absolutely see with a higher floor, but I hear you (and no way I go Bowden Rd2 too soon). 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Broncofan