NFL Draft Prop Bets

[SmittyBacall]

Finally, a betting event is finally upon us. And it just so happens to be our specialty. Has anyone been eying any prop bets worth making?  I usually do pretty well on these from following the draft so intently, so I plan on partaking again this year. 

Here are some betting lines to consider (according to one site in particular I cannot name):

First WR drafted: Jerry Jeudy (-110), Ceedee Lamb (+135), Henry Ruggs (+300).

QBs drafted 1st round (O/U 4.5): O +300, U -450.

WRs drafted 1st round (O/U 5.5): O +162, U -225.

OL drafted 1st round (O/U 6.5): O -110, U-125. 
 

Draft position:

Andrew Thomas (O/U 11.5): O -120, U -110.

CJ Henderson (O/U 14.5): O +105, U -135.

Ceedee Lamb (O/U 12.5): O -120, U -110.

Derrick Brown (O/U 7.5): O -125, U -105.

Henry Ruggs (O/U 13.5): O -120, U -110.

Isaiah Simmons (O/U 6.5): O +110, U -140.

Javon Kinlaw (O/U 13.5): O -125, U -105.

Jedrick Wills (O/U 8.5): O -140, U +110.

Jeff Okudah (O/U 4.5): O -140, U +110. 

Jerry Jeudy (O/U 12.5): O +120, U -150.

Jordan Love (O/U 19.5): O -125, U -105.

Justin Herbert (O/U 5.5): O -160, U +130.

K’Lavon Chiasson (O/U 16.5): O -130, U +100.

Meckhi Becton (O/U 8.5): O -135, U +105.

Tristian Wirfs (O/U 8.5): O +100, U -130. 

Tua Tagovailoa (O/U 3.5): O -260, U +210.

My favourite picks:

Andrew Thomas (O/U 11.5): U -110. Why? He seems to have become the forgotten man of the big 4 tackles, but has been gaining a bit of traction recently. Has everything you look for in a tackle prospect besides elite testing - great tape, extremely high character. Possibly viewed as the best rookie LT who can be relied on from day 1. Ceiling 4th overall to Giants, floor 10th overall to Browns. 

CJ Henderson (O/U 14.5): U -135. Why? Gaining a ton of interest as of late, rumoured more than once to go higher than initially thought. Not great value - betting wise - but plays a premium position that should shoot him up draft boards. I think a he could be a target of a team looking to move up into the tail end of the top 10, or could be taken outright by Jacksonville at 9.

Javon Kinlaw (O/U 13.5): U -105. Why? Premium prospect and a pass rusher, a combination that will rank precedence on draft day. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him go before Derrick Brown. I could see him go as high as Carolina at 6, and can’t see him getting past the Niners at 13.

Tristian Wirfs (O/U 8.5): U -130. Why? I think there is a really good chance the Giants take him at 4 if they bypass Simmons. He’s got the elite athleticism Gettleman will drool over and better tape than Becton. If not there, it’s tough to see him getting past Arizona at 8.

Tua Tagovailoa (O/U 3.5): U +210. This one is a bit more risky. You’re essentially banking on a team trading up to 3, which I think is very possible. For a few reasons, namely, the vast majority of first round QBs are traded up for, and Miami has plenty of ammo to move up two spots.  Pick 3 looks likeliest as that is when the draft really opens up, and teams have been negotiating with Detroit for (likely) months after Burrow and Young inevitably go 1 and 2. The medicals are concerning, as we really don’t know the leagues opinion on him (Could it be worse than we think? Is he off some teams boards? Who knows). But I feel pretty comfortable taking the risk here that Miami makes the jump. I don’t believe the Herbert to MIA hype. Smells like smoke to me.

[MikeT14]

Best I can do on Ruggs as 1st WR is +180

Andrew Thomas is at 10.5 otherwise I'd bite.

[LeotheLion]

I like Love under 19.5. 

[BStanRamFan]

I got Javon Kinlaw in the top 10 for +250. I think ATL move up from 16 to top 10 to grab him or someone else will like Jax or Carolina.

[MikeT14]

13 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

I like Love under 19.5. 

I think I have him at 18.5 at +120

[LeotheLion]

1 minute ago, MikeT14 said:

I think I have him at 18.5 at +120

For the under? I have him at 19.5 under. Feel good about it. I think a team trades up for him as a QB of the future. 

[MikeT14]

18 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

For the under? I have him at 19.5 under. Feel good about it. I think a team trades up for him as a QB of the future. 

Yes, under. And it was +105. Oops.

[SmittyBacall]

Offensive lineman taken in 1st round (O/U 6.5): O -110

This has to be a lock, right? The first four tackles are certain to go within the first 15 picks. Josh Jones is a lock. Then two of the following should round out the first: Ezra Cleveland, Isiah Wilson, Cesar Ruiz, Austin Jackson. 

[SmittyBacall]

Ceedee Lamb as the first WR taken just went from +135 to -110.

[Da_Ducktator]

Prop bets like this are most important to get before lines move. The value on them vanishes fairly quickly.

Example; I took Ruggs First WR Drafted at +700. I still think Lamb goes in front of him (kind of doubting Jeudy does though I love him), but the value was way too good when it opened.

Now the three are basically neck-and-neck to be first off the board.

 

A couple others I got that moved a lot:

• 1st Round OL O5.5 -260 (now -500)
• Javon Kinlaw U15.5 -155 (now -300)
• Denzel Mims 1st Round +150 (now -180)

 

I also bet Zack Baun not to go 1st round the other day after the water weight incident at -140 before they took it off the board entirely.

[SmittyBacall]

1 minute ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Now the three are basically neck-and-neck to be first off the board.

That’s a bit of an overstatement, at least odds-wise. Lamb and Jeudy are -110, Ruggs is +400. +700 is really good value though that you might as well stick out and hope you get lucky.

3 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

A couple others I got that moved a lot:

• 1st Round OL O5.5 -260 (now -500)
• Javon Kinlaw U15.5 -155 (now -300)
• Denzel Mims 1st Round +150 (now -180)

Lock. Lock. Lock.

3 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

I also bet Zack Baun not to go 1st round the other day after the water weight incident at -140 before they took it off the board entirely.

I’m not sure the diluted sample moves the needle much, but I agree. I don’t really see him as a first round prospect anyway. 

[Da_Ducktator]

12 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

That’s a bit of an overstatement, at least odds-wise. Lamb and Jeudy are -110, Ruggs is +400. +700 is really good value though that you might as well stick out and hope you get lucky.

Lock. Lock. Lock.

I’m not sure the diluted sample moves the needle much, but I agree. I don’t really see him as a first round prospect anyway. 

BetOnline currently has Lamb & Jeudy +115, and Ruggs +300.

 

I didn't think Baun was a 1st either, but then the fact he needed to add water weight just to get to 238... teams can't be that dumb to draft a conversion off-ball LB who is likely playing in the 220's in the top 32. -140 was too good of value right after the news hit (I bet it literally 3 minutes after that. I found another book had it still on the board, but listed at -200).