(Polls) Wrecks, Lies, & Videotape -- The Riskiest, Illusion Prospects

[Mind Character]

List/Characterize some of the Riskiest Gambles, Alluring Illusion, Boom or Bust, and/or Just Plain Cheeks Prospects in the Draft?

----------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------

Teams fall for them every single year.

Every Single Year the 2nd Round and especially the top of the 2nd Round is filled with Alluring replacement level players (i.e., players thought to provide eventual quality starter impact when selected to only soon after perform in such a way that GM and Coaches are looking for an immediate longterm better replacement).

The top of the 2nd is about adding an additional starter but there are often alluring illusion prospects that teams select that are clearly boom/bust, amazing athletes but poor instinct football players, injury risk, or players with reputations that far exceed the quality of their play.

The Alluring Illusion Football Prospect Categories include but are not limited to the following:

1. The Illusion of the All-World Athlete With No Quality Starter Instincts/Feel for the Game
   1. Tristan Wirfs at Tackle
   2. Ezra Cleveland,
   3. Jeremy Chinn,
   4. Neville Gallimore
   5. Ashtyn Davis (Davis has intangibles that you want to bet on though)
2. The Illusion of the Injury Prone Uber Talented Player Being Healthy in the Pros
   1. Lucas Niang
   2. Netane Muti
3. The Illusion of the Off-the-Field Concern Risk Uber Talented Player Being Reliable, Available, & Dependable in the Pros
   1. Antonio Callaway,
4. The Illusion of the Buzzy-Named "But he was Top 10 in Mocks the Year Before" All-Americans with Serious Play Deficiencies Across the Board
   1. The Great Delpin aka Grant Delpit
   2. K'Lavon Chaisson
5. The Illusion of the Uber Production Player Against Also Ran Competition without Traits that Project to the Next Level
   1. Curtis Weaver
6. The Illusion of the Uber Talented Inconsistent Motor or Focus Player Being All-In Once He Gets to the Pros
   1. Laviska Shenault
7. The Illusion of the Gritty, Tough as Nails Player With No Functional Athleticism Performing at a High Level in the Pros
   1. Austin Corbett

---------------------------------------

The All-Risky Gambles 1st Team, Look for Better Alternatives in the 1st/2nd Round, Probably Fool's Gold Prospects:

Grant Delpit, SS LSU - Reputation more a function of the greatness of Jamal Adams and the desire for teams to find an Adams clone. Has plus leadership skills and plays with competitive fires. He's an urgent and fluid mover and has a high degree of mental toughness. He's a player with a big name but a small game in terms of projection at the next level.Won the Thorpe Award off of pedigree and reputation in a year that saw his actual on the field performance take a significant decline. A lot has been attributed to injury in terms of the decline, but scouts with good eyes know that Delpit was more phantom and myth than ever the true great player he was made out to be. Has bad instincts and feel for range playmaking as a Free Safety but lacks the ability to get guys down and be a force in the run at Strong Safety or the change of direction functional athleticism to cover the Slot effectively.

Jeremy Chinn, FS/LB Southern Illinois - Another tremendous underwear Olympian with a very elementary feel for the game and poor instincts. Has to be spoon fed a path to make the play before he mentally triggers onto playmaking. Is a short-stepper who takes a wait and see approach that didn't hurt him against his level of competition. Not an urgent athlete and doesn't play with competitive fire. Doesn't possess instincts and recognition skills to be an quality impact Free Safety nor possesses the quick recognition, quick trigger, and/or physicality to have quality impact as a Strong Safety. There's a lot of Obi Melifonwu in this game in that there's a lack of toughness and more finesse to his play traits.

Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State - Elite Underwear Olympic athlete with limited functional football specific athleticism in his lateral agility, start-stop movement, and hip flexibiity and anchor. There's a lot of tools to develop from, but he also doesn't have the functional strength or play with the length required to be an immediate quality starter. Gets exposed when he faces players that aren't also rans.

Neville Gallimore, DT South Carolina - Explosive raw athleticism with poor football specific biomechanical movement coordination and even worse feel for the game and instincts.

Lavisk Shenault, WR Colorado - A lot of issues regarding his mental toughness from people inside the program. Body toughness/injuries are a concern but not as much as is waning focus when his truly bad QB plays poorily. Unbelievable athletic skill and also displays perfect route running and elite high point and combat catch ability that disappears for more reasons than just poor QB play.

Ashtyn Davis, FS/CB Cal - Unbelievable track athlete. Unbelievably thin and frail body type for a Safety and has no length. Tremendous fluidity and dynamic movement skills, but lacks mental recognition and instinctual feel for the game. Known as having a tremendous amount of character and is driven to be an elite worker. For all the great intangibles and athleticism, he doesn't feel or process routes or possess the physicality to be a force in the passing game or the run game as a Safety. He has a lot of ability and should be considered a CB-convert.

Low Ceiling, Middling Floor Limitations as a Starter

Xavier McKinney, FS/S Alabama - Elite Leader and Elite in Preparation according to teammates and coaches. He's just doesn't possess the fluidity and/or play speed to range play-make at a high level in the NFL. Has a hard time disrupting the pass and covering the deep half and deep third. Start-Stop quickness and horizontal coverage are less than desired.

------------------------------------------

It's about opportunity cost.

There are going to be better gambles on players at various other positions in the 1st and 2nd Round (and beyond). Instead the fool's gold players, teams should turn their attention instead to the following quality prospects that likely go between 18 and 64th.

 

The Better Alternatives/Gambles in the 2nd or in Some Cases Late 1st:

Antoine Winfield, SS Minnesota

Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State

Denzel Mims, WR Baylor

Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC

Austin Jackson, LT USC

Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma

Robert Hunt, OG/OT Louisiana-Lafayette

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU

Logan Wilson, LB Wyoming

Antonio GIbson, RB/WR Memphis

KJ Hamler, Slot-WR Penn State

Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

Jack Driscoll, OG/OT Auburn

Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Mind Character

[FGK]

The bust rate even in the first round is usually somewhere around 50%, so absolutely, at some point in the draft we will take a guy who turns out to have been an empty suit. Nobody hits 100% of the time, heck, the greats barely pull off 60%.

[Reginaldm9]

This is one of those threads where you've convinced yourself that your opinions on prospects are the gospel. I'm at least glad that you've found a healthy outlet during the quarantine. 

[Mind Character]

5 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

The bust rate even in the first round is usually somewhere around 50%, so absolutely, at some point in the draft we will take a guy who turns out to have been an empty suit. Nobody hits 100% of the time, heck, the greats barely pull off 60%.

Absolutely and totally agree. The very nature of the draft is such that with each subsequent pick the probability of the gamble's positive payoff dwindles.

As such, I didn't mean to formulate a question the way I did which very much read like, "Will the Browns lose out on a gamble somewhere in the draft," as the answer to that is a certainty not only for the Browns but for every team in the draft.

I meant to specify and formulate a question more to the idea of, "Will the Browns Select a more illusion than substance player due to their misevaluation in the 1st or 2nd Round?," as in will their pick lack the proper analysis and weighing of information.

Your comment made me go back and read the gobbledygook I originally had and as a result I changed it to a more precise/meaningful question.

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, Reginaldm9 said:

This is one of those threads where you've convinced yourself that your opinions on prospects are the gospel. I'm at least glad that you've found a healthy outlet during the quarantine. 

What are we doing on this thing called the Internet on this Forum in this thing Called Life in the first place?

Some of us participate in internet-entertainment by typing out strong subjective evidenced-based opinions about prospects ...

,,, others of us entertain ourselves by calling out how someone posting on an internet discussion board convinced their self that their opinions on prospects are gospel. Then, make a zingy, tongue-in-cheek comment about how we're glad that person has a "healthy" outlet during the quarantine. 

It's all part of the gray amorphous blob that is contemporary human escapist-entertainment known as sports fandom.

What a time...

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

 

[candyman93]

Mind is not handling the lockdown well.

 

He’s posted the same thread 16 times already

[MWil23]

@Mind Character I think that you can break these guys into tiers (again) for things. For instance, while I wouldn't touch Delpit at all in the 1st, I'd definitely roll the dice on him in the 2nd (assuming Winfield is gone) because of the talent/upside/athleticism, hoping that I can sand off some of those flaws/smooth out the edges.

The same goes for a guy like Shenault. If he's brought into the right locker room/situation with the right QB, I would bet on him excelling. Pair him with Mahomes, Rodgers, Brees, etc., and he probably fits well, gaining confidence early, trusting a surefire HOF QB, and put into a system where he's going to get high volume targets.

Personally, I'd throw Kinlaw's name into the mix as well. I don't see a Top 15 player at all on the tape. The upside and potential are undeniable, but the production doesn't warrant a 1st Round pick. Now, if I'm a team like KC that needs a DL and he happens to fall to 32, I'm obviously taking him, but I'm not taking him until the late first.

Boom/Bust players have their place, just not at the top of the 1st Round.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

30 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Mind is not handling the lockdown well.

 

He’s posted the same thread 16 times already

Lol right?  

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

 

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Boom/Bust players have their place, just not at the top of the 1st Round.

for me those guys are not top 75 players on my “board”.  
 

At the top you need to be bringing in guys who you feel, at a minimum, can be an adequate starter. If they’re not stars but are decent, earn a second contract, etc., you can live with that. Do that for the most part every year and you’ll have a good roster.

Investing draft capital is no different imo than investing money.  Your largest investments don’t need to make you rich, but they have to be solid as they’re the foundation of your portfolio.  If you have a couple extra bucks and want to swing for the fences, great, you’re not mortgaging your future on the success of that investment.

[MWil23]

12 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

for me those guys are not top 75 players on my “board”.  
 

At the top you need to be bringing in guys who you feel, at a minimum, can be an adequate starter. If they’re not stars but are decent, earn a second contract, etc., you can live with that. Do that for the most part every year and you’ll have a good roster.

Investing draft capital is no different imo than investing money.  Your largest investments don’t need to make you rich, but they have to be solid as they’re the foundation of your portfolio.  If you have a couple extra bucks and want to swing for the fences, great, you’re not mortgaging your future on the success of that investment.

I understand that logic for sure. I don't inherently disagree with it, but I think it depends on why that guy is labeled a potential bust.

1. Is it work ethic? If so, not Top 75

2. Is it medical? To what degree? If so, I'd roll the dice in the 2nd/early 3rd depending on the position and player.

3. Is it substance/off the field? If so, not Top 75 (Callaway, Randy Gregory, Rueben Foster)

4. Is it lack of quality tape/production? If so, to what degree? Are there simply flaws while having major flashes, or is the sum of the parts alarming and the guy blew the doors off of the testing at the combine? If you can get a flawed prospect and hope that you can iron out those deficiencies while having the upside, you pull the trigger in the late 1st/early 2nd (See: Greedy Williams and tackling Anquan Boldin running a 4.7 40, etc.)

IMO not all "boom or bust" guys are equal and not all of those factors (and more) the same to vault them/move them way down my draft board.

[DawgX]

1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

Mind is not handling the lockdown well.

 

He’s posted the same thread 16 times already

I mean, he pretty much does that even when we're not under lockdown.

[pnies20]

Simmons matches the thread title. 

 

[Mind Character]

36 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Boom/Bust players have their place, just not at the top of the 1st Round.

36 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

For instance, while I wouldn't touch Delpit at all in the 1st, I'd definitely roll the dice on him in the 2nd (assuming Winfield is gone) because of the talent/upside/athleticism, hoping that I can sand off some of those flaws/smooth out the edges.

This is where we disagree.  To me, Boom or Bust players have their place in the 3rd or 4th round not the 1st and not the 2nd. And that was my point prior.

There's nothing wrong with swinging for contact and to get on base with an easy swing in the 1st and 2nd round. That often leads to Doubles and gets runs scored. There's no reason to swing for the fences when runners are in scoring position as we just need a few more solid starers to get this team to a place of real winning.

The Traps that teams continue to fall into over and over again is thinking that it's okay to take swings on Boom-Bust players who are inherently risky players at the top of the 2nd and in the 1st..

For me, the 2nd round (especially the top of the 2nd) is no place for guys that aren't solid probability quality starters by year 2. 1st round is for immediate quality starters of higher quality.

Grant Delpit has deficiencies in run support and deficiencies in range playmaking in pass coverage. He has raw athletic tools and intangibles to make him a boom-or-bust prospect. That's a waste of a swing and too risky in the 2nd round. In the 3rd, fine.

 

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, Mind Character said:

This is where we disagree.  To me, Boom or Bust players have their place in the 3rd or 4th round not the 1st and not the 2nd. And that was my point prior.

There's nothing wrong with swinging for contact and to get on base with an easy swing in the 1st and 2nd round. That often leads to Doubles and gets runs scored. There's no reason to swing for the fences when runners are in scoring position as we just need a few more solid starers to get this team to a place of real winning.

The Traps that teams continue to fall into over and over again is thinking that it's okay to take swings on Boom-Bust players who are inherently risky players at the top of the 2nd and in the 1st..

For me, the 2nd round (especially the top of the 2nd) is no place for guys that aren't solid probability quality starters by year 2. 1st round is for immediate quality starters of higher quality.

Grant Delpit has deficiencies in run support and deficiencies in range playmaking in pass coverage. He has raw athletic tools and intangibles to make him a boom-or-bust prospect. That's a waste of a swing and too risky in the 2nd round. In the 3rd, fine.

 

Rumor has it the Jets are shopping Jamal Adams. What's a realistic asking price/landing price with that severed relationship?