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Packfanfb's "Final - Follow Me To The Super Bowl" Mock


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Last Mock before we hit the draft on April 23. Saved this one for last because it's my realistic "dream" draft, not necessarily one I think the Packers will or would go for, at least some of the players. It's definitely a "win now" mock with a focus on adding offensive weapons early. Probably won't be for everyone, but if you want to win the Super Bowl, you should approve ;). 

FA moves before draft next week = none. Packers roster is what it is going into the draft at this point. Packers sitting at about $11 million in cap space. 

DRAFT

Round 1 (Pick 30) -- TRADE

Packers like the board enough at 30 that they are comfortable trading back and the Chargers, who passed on a QB in round 1, light up because Jordan Love has fallen and is still there at 30. They want Love and the 5th year option, so the Packers strike the following deal: 

Packers give pick 30 (620 points + premium of 5th year option) to Chargers in exchange for Desmond King, pick 37 (520 points) and pick 115 (29.8 points).

LA Chargers: Making the case for a Desmond King-Trent Williams ...

Chargers should take this deal because they win on the points 620 > 550, leaving about a 70 point spread, equal to roughly a high 4th round pick for Desmond King, better than the Chargers would get if they kept King and let him go via FA in 2021. For the Packers it makes sense, drop back just 7 picks, pick up an extra high 5th rounder and get a premium nickel-CB where we currently have a hole. King only costs $2.2m on the cap this year. He's a FA after this year, but even if choose not to resign him and he's a one-year rental, we let him go for probably a 5th-6th round compensatory pick in 2021. If GB gets this type of offer, it's a no-brainer. 

Round 2 (37) - Jalen Reagor (WR) – TCU – 5’11”, 200 lbs; RAS = 5.98

Buffalo Bills 2020 NFL Draft: Seven wide receiver options

Reagor is my guy. His RAS was F'ed up by his agility scores, which simply do not match his play on tape - not even close (most suspect he bulked up too much for the combine). He's Mr. Explosive, with or without the ball in his hands. Our WR core needs a point guard, that's Reagor. Moreover, despite his size, Reagor isn't just a slot guy. Played outside a lot at TCU and has the release package already to do it in the NFL. He is precisely what this offense needs to take off and complete our WR core.

 Round 2 (62) – Cole Kmet (TE) – Notre Dame – 6’5”, 262 lbs; RAS = 8.9

2020 NFL Draft: 5 tight ends Bears could pick, from Cole Kmet to ...

That's right, another receiving weapon. Back-to-back in the 2nd round. There was talk all off-season that the Packers were "in" on Austin Hooper. Well, we wisely chose not to pay Hooper $11m AAV, and instead, we can just draft Hooper. That's Kmet. Similar skills meaning he's not going to take the top off down the seam or run like Waller out there, but he's a smart player who's good at finding open zones and is a big target. Willing in-line blocker who will continue to improve there. He's a perfect compliment-type player to Sternberger. Packers will love his RAS. 

Round 3 (94) – Logan Wilson (ILB) – Wyoming – 6’2”, 240 lbs; RAS = 8.85

Logan Wilson Selected as Semifinalist for Butkus Award

Wilson has grown on me throughout this process. He's basically a souped-up version of Martinez meaning he's a tackling machine, but can run and cover better (and might have better instincts coming out as well). Posted an very high RAS, but isn't just an athlete, he can play, and can play right now. Should instantly start next to Kirksey and allow the Packers to play more 2-ILB sets if Pettine wants to go that route. 

Round 4 (136) – Jack Driscoll (OT) – Auburn – 6’4”, 306 lbs; RAS = 8.87

NFL Offensive Line Prospects Driscoll, Bartch Devour Disgusting ...

Waited until Day 3 to pick my first "big man" but Driscoll is a solid RT prospect. He may not be ready to start right away, but we don't need that. Driscoll has the athletic profile the Packers covet at the position, he merely needs to get stronger, which will happen. Packers have a history of hitting on OL early on Day 3 and Driscoll is "hopefully" added to that tradition. 

Round 5 (151) – McTelvin Agim (IDL) – Arkansas – 6’3”, 309 lbs; RAS = 8.54

McTelvin Agim on Twitter: "and so it goes✌🏾onward and upward ...

Agim fits into those "late day 2-early day 3" prospects that frankly may end up being just as good as the late day 1 IDL prospects. Not much separating these guys. Unlike some of his peers, Agim's strength is not run defense (struggles to anchor), but his pass rush. His first step is impressive (Mike Daniels-like) and he should fit in immediately as a sub-IDL rusher, something we don't currently have on the roster other than Clark and Z when he slides inside. Simply put, Agim adds juice to our DL squad which desperately needs some since the loss of Daniels. 

Round 5 (175) – Jonathan Garvin (EDGE) – Miami – 6’4”, 263 lbs; RAS = 8.98

Jonathan Garvin – The Miami Hurricane

I've had him in every mock and I'm sticking to it. Garvin fits the athletic "big" profile we covet at the EDGE position. We have a hole at the No. 4 spot after Gary with only guys like Ramsey and Greg Roberts currently on the roster. If he hits at all, Garvin has a chance to play a role in 2020. 

Round 5 (178 – Trade 192 and 209) – Reggie Robinson (CB) – Tulsa – 6’1”, 205; RAS = 9.63

Cleburne's Reggie Robinson II working towards NFL future ...

Gutey is bored after not making a deal since Round 1 and he spots Reggie Robinson still on the board so he calls Denver at pick 178 (19 points) in the 5th round and gives up picks 192 (13.4 points) and 209 (6.6 points) to move up and nab him. Robinson has good size and good speed, with an outstanding, elite RAS score -- all favorites for Gute. 

Round 6 (208) – Josiah Deguara (FB/TE) – Cincinnati – 6’2”, 242 lbs; RAS = 8.47

Cincinnati Bearcats Football Returning Player Refresher: Josiah ...

With pick 208, the Packers nab Deguara (who we actually just hosted a virtual interview with BTW). Deguara fits the H-back role perfectly for Green Bay. With Vitale gone, and given the way the Packers used Sternberger down the stretch last year, I think we might do away with a traditional FB (Vitale never carried the ball anyways), and instead, go with a true H-back. Deguara is that type of player. Again, high RAS score, fitting the Gutey profile. 

Round 7 (236) – Tanner Muse (SS/ILB) – Clemson – 6’2”, 227 lbs; RAS = 9.94

Tanner Muse 2020 NFL Draft Profile - Last Word on Pro Football

Muse could go a little higher than this give his combine performance, but appears to be a late day 3 prospect either way given his "tweener" fit on most teams. The Packers happen to like tweeners for their dime-ILB fits and Muse has a chance to fit in at that role as well as potentially making the team as a ST ace. Elite RAS score and captain of a good Clemson defense the last few years. May start as a PS candidate. 

Round 7 (242) – Jon Runyan, Jr. (OG/OT) – Michigan – 6’4”, 306 lbs; RAS = 8.46

2020 Ravens Draft Watch: Jon Runyan Jr. - PressBoxOnline.com

Fits the Packers' profile for another possible college OT that can slide inside to OG and/or be a swing OT in the future. Probably a practice squad candidate to start off his career but has the bloodlines and athletic traits to make it, at least as a dependable back-up player. 

Post-Draft FA Moves

Snacks Harrison (IDL) – 1 year, $4.5m ($2.5m base + incentives) (Cap Hit: $2.75m)

Damon Harrison staying away from Lions workouts - ProFootballTalk

After the draft, the clear hole to fill for the Packers will still be a run-stuffing IDL player and Snacks is still out there. He'd be a perfect fit next to Clark and instantly give us a more formidable front. Not only is Snacks still a top-end run defender, but he's also had 5.5 sacks in the last two years for Detroit. Last year, our IDL guys, not named Clark, combined for a whopping 1 sack. Harrison should be a no-brainer add. 

Projected 53-man Depth Chart

Offense (25)

QB – Rodgers, Boyle

RB – Jones, J. Williams, D. Williams, Ervin

TE/HB – Sternberger, Lewis, Kmet (R), Deguara (R)

WR – Adams, Funchess, Reagor (R), Lazard, MVS, St. Brown

OL – Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Linsley, Turner, Wagner, Patrick, Taylor, Light, Driscoll (R)

Defense (25)

DL – Clark, Harrison, Lowry, Agim (R), Lancaster, Keke

EDGE – Z. Smith, P. Smith, Gary, Garvin (R)

ILB – Kirksey, Wilson (R), Burks, Summers

CB – K. King, Alexander, D. King, Sullivan, Jackson, Hollman, Robinson (R) 

S – Amos, Savage, Greene, Redmond

Special Teams (3)

Crosby (K), Scott (P), Bradley (LS)

  *Notable cuts: Montravius Adams and Robert Tonyan

  *Draft picks on PS: Tanner Muse and Jon Runyan

  *Lane Taylor sticks as the top back-up OG. Too valuable to cut for no reason and may be needed if we choose to slide Turner out to RT early in the season if Wagner is injured. 

 

Edited by packfanfb
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This is the best mock I've seen in awhile by far but I just can't get on board with Agim at all.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mctelvin-agim?id=32194147-4941-5291-22cd-e746827ff201
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/mctelvin-agim/ckarALEGlr

I think he's being overhyped due to his Senior Bowl performance. Both links essentially state the same things: lack of fundamentals despite being a former DE, poor functional strength, inability to anchor. He's another IDL that's best suited in a 4-3 front and even Zierlein projects him there without even suggesting that he could potentially land in an odd front. Play strength aside, this guy's got Khyri Thornton written all over him. I think we visited with him to see if he'd be a good FA pick up down the line.

I do, however, hope that Jordan Love falls to 30 and we take San Diego's offer to trade down to 37. The problem is that they're probably going to reach on him at 6 and stick him behind Taylor for a year while he develops. With that in mind, we still may be able to make a similar trade down if someone really wants Fromm, Hurts, or Eason and has a QB on the back 9 of their career who could develop said player. I could see a team like Indy doing this given that they've shown their hand regarding Brissett.  I'd still like to see an additional IDL drafted, but where do you put him in? I think I stay put at 192 and 209 and find another IDL at one of those two picks. I think you can still get Robinson at 192 if not a bit later.

Edited by Joe
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Why would you trade down 7 spots in the 1st round to acquire pick #115 if you didn't use it? :P

 

Edit: Probably your inner packfanfb realized that not even Bill O'Brien would make that trade, let alone the Chargers. :D Trading down 7 spots to get Desmond King would be an absolute steal, getting an extra 4th on top would not only be stealing an ice cream from a little kid, but stealing the whole ice cream factory. Not gonna happen :)

Edited by Gravedigger93
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13 hours ago, Gravedigger93 said:

Why would you trade down 7 spots in the 1st round to acquire pick #115 if you didn't use it? :P

 

Edit: Probably your inner packfanfb realized that not even Bill O'Brien would make that trade, let alone the Chargers. :D Trading down 7 spots to get Desmond King would be an absolute steal, getting an extra 4th on top would not only be stealing an ice cream from a little kid, but stealing the whole ice cream factory. Not gonna happen :)

Whoops, typo, should have 151, not 115.

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16 hours ago, JBURGE said:

Desmond King LOL that dude is one of the best slot corners in the NFL

Who is going to have a minimized role this year if he stays with the Chargers. Think more broadly. If King stays with the Chargers this year and see his snaps reduced by 50% (Harris is their slot guy now), what does that do to King's value in 2021? We already know slot CBs don't get paid like perimeter guys anyways so at best what is LA going to get when he leaves...maybe a 5th round compensatory pick? If he strikes gold, LA could get a 4th, but that's a stretch. The best value LA is going to get for him is trading him now and I doubt any team pays better than a 4th to get him, especially for a guy who may be a one-year rental. 

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