Why is Jordan Love a potential first rounder?

[BobbyPhil1781]

9 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

There’s a difference between saying 2019>2018 and saying 2018 doesn’t matter, which is 100% the sentiment. I don’t like Love either but pretending like performances from just over a year ago, don’t matter? That’s dumb, especially if you contextualize how much he lost. Darnold had the same problem when he lost players on his offense. 

I'm not aware of anyone saying '18 doesn't matter. I specifically said '19 >> '18 bc it is. More recent data is better data. And, again, he lost one damn NFL player lol. Let's not pretend the '18 team was full of studs. You're overrating people here. Yes, he lost coaches that went to TT and had no success but those coaches aren't the reason he threw directly at defenders all the damn time this past season. Pee-wee QBs know you're not supposed to throw it directly at the defense. Darnold was playing against better competition also and not the whack MWC. It's relevant whether those want to believe it or not.

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

I'm not aware of anyone saying '18 doesn't matter. 

It's on the very first page... it was specifically stated "who cares how he played in 2018". That's ostensibly saying 2018 doesn't matter. Maybe you view it differently, clearly others don't. 

5 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

And, again, he lost one damn NFL player lol. Let's not pretend the '18 team was full of studs.You're overrating people here.

Meh. This is an opinion thing. It's not always about whether or not they got drafted. Anyone who watched Josh Allen in his draft -1 year and draft year who can't tell what a difference Tanner Gentry made for Josh Allen isn't being honest. Tanner Gentry wasn't drafted, but he was a huge loss for that Wyoming team. The surrounding cast in 2018 was better than it was this last year for Love. Was it full of studs? No, but it's Utah State...how many NFL players are they getting? So I get what you're saying, but I also think it's unfair to just write it off. So many quarterbacks are their situation, even in the NFL. So I do think that it's worth giving thought to, but however much emphasis anyone wants to give it is completely fair whether its a lot or a little. 

11 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

but those coaches aren't the reason he threw directly at defenders all the damn time this past season

Well this is just truth. If you watch him last year, its very clearly he has a bit of Winston disease going on and can't spot defenders underneath to save his life. He also has a tendency to be lackadaisical on his throws, particularly on throws you can't be (Outs). This is a problem and one that he will have to correct if he wants to make it in the NFL. But we have seen in the past that these type of flaws don't necessarily preclude you from being a first round pick (and a high one at that) provided you have the tools. 

[Soko]

19 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

I'm not aware of anyone saying '18 doesn't matter.

You must not be keeping up.

13 hours ago, Elky said:

Who cares how he played in 2018?

 

13 hours ago, Elky said:

"LUK HOW AWESUM HE WAZ 50 YEARS AGO!!!"

 

Quote

And, again, he lost one damn NFL player lol. Let's not pretend the '18 team was full of studs. You're overrating people here. Yes, he lost coaches that went to TT and had no success but those coaches aren't the reason he threw directly at defenders all the damn time this past season. Pee-wee QBs know you're not supposed to throw it directly at the defense. Darnold was playing against better competition also and not the whack MWC. It's relevant whether those want to believe it or not.

Okay? I’m not overrating anyone. He lost a bunch of starters - that’s a fact. Never said they were college superstars or NFL bound.

[BobbyPhil1781]

28 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's on the very first page... it was specifically stated "who cares how he played in 2018". That's ostensibly saying 2018 doesn't matter. Maybe you view it differently, clearly others don't. 

Meh. This is an opinion thing. It's not always about whether or not they got drafted. Anyone who watched Josh Allen in his draft -1 year and draft year who can't tell what a difference Tanner Gentry made for Josh Allen isn't being honest. Tanner Gentry wasn't drafted, but he was a huge loss for that Wyoming team. The surrounding cast in 2018 was better than it was this last year for Love. Was it full of studs? No, but it's Utah State...how many NFL players are they getting? So I get what you're saying, but I also think it's unfair to just write it off. So many quarterbacks are their situation, even in the NFL. So I do think that it's worth giving thought to, but however much emphasis anyone wants to give it is completely fair whether its a lot or a little. 

Well this is just truth. If you watch him last year, its very clearly he has a bit of Winston disease going on and can't spot defenders underneath to save his life. He also has a tendency to be lackadaisical on his throws, particularly on throws you can't be (Outs). This is a problem and one that he will have to correct if he wants to make it in the NFL. But we have seen in the past that these type of flaws don't necessarily preclude you from being a first round pick (and a high one at that) provided you have the tools. 

Yeah I wasn't reading too much to what OP was saying, you're right. Those are certainly his opinions that I do not share although I've stated, with reason, why they're less relevant than those of 2019.

While losing people is important, yes, it's not like he had a rapport with these guys only playing with them for 1.5 years. Yes I'm aware he was a starter for 3 years but he barely was asked to do anything his freshman year. Too many times everyone says he sucked last year bc his team left when it could be the exact opposite. Maybe coaches realized his tendencies and took advantage of them? It's much easier to succeed when everyone knows nothing about you. The challenge is maintaining success after everyone does know a lot about you which is why we see so many people falter in their second years. 

I can't call last year a Winston thing either, at least not every time. Love was robotic and people seemingly understood that and jumped on it. Winston just dgaf and throws it downfield and doesn't care lol. Love did do that at times but IIRC, it was the minority of his INTs. Overall though, we are certainly on the same page as far as that goes. "Lackadaisical" is a word I've used a lot to describe his throws and it will absolutely have to be something he can correct. Will he be able to? I'd hate you waste a first round pick to find out unless you're a QB away from competing for a championship. 

Yes, he lost some guys that are high school coaches now from his '18 team but that doesn't make up for his awful decision making, lazy throwing, and overall pitiful performance last year against one of the weakest conferences in the country. He should've stayed another year, without question. That, IMO, is another knock to his decision making.

[Awsi Dooger]

I like to devalue subjectivity and use simple criteria. Here are the 2018 leaders in points per game:

1) Oklahoma (Kyler Murray) 48.4

2) Utah State (Jordan Love) 47.5

3) Alabama (Tua Tagovailoa) 45.6

4) Clemson (Trevor Lawrence) 44.3

Many quarterbacks have been shoved up the drafts boards despite flunking basic measures like whether or not they influence the scoreboard. Mitch Trubisky was one of them, drafted second despite 44th in the nation during his one season as starter. Jacob Eason has flunked that category in two seasons as starter in two different high level programs, 102nd with Georgia in 2016 and 41st with Washington in 2019. Eason lost 3 games last season while favored by 13.5 points or more. Washington scored a combined 48 points less than projected in those three games.

Again, it all comes down to what do you prioritize? Obviously there are tons of ways to look at this. My belief is always to look for hidden value in guys who were once great, and nothing like injuries or off field problems prevents greatness long term, but now for whatever reason they are frowned upon and held at a reputation far below their true ability. Jordan Love is steadily qualifying for that. Kind of remarkable that almost everyone prefers to take the low end on him. It reminds me of being at a race track and nobody wants a specific horse because his recent efforts were lousy. But then you look back in the Daily Racing Form to his chart from 6 months or a year earlier. Those were great outings. Those were wins or near wins. And many of the circumstances from those races are now present again, like the distance of the race and return to the specific track and jockey who guided him to the earlier success.

I can't count how many times I've cashed on that type of thing. Fellow patrons are flabbergasted after the result. Yeah pal, you looked at the 9th place and 12th place from the two most recent efforts. You didn't bother to go back and check that 4 length victory from 11 months ago, when all the variables were almost identical to today. Thank you very much.

When I loved to Las Vegas to bet sports I immediately noticed that everybody was doing exactly the same thing. They were watching every game and forming one subjective opinion after another. Every opinion was subject to immediate revision based on the next game or even the next play. All of their wagers were totally dependent on their subjective opinions, and those opinions were heavily influenced by the most recent thing they saw.

And almost everybody was complaining and losing. Guys I didn't even know were asking me if they could borrow money.

Okay, this is not complicated. That approach is the one thing I am not going to do. It has to be more of an automated approach, something that devalues subjectivity and has a numerical long term foundation. Every game is merely an example within a subset. 

That is not as easy to apply to the NFL Draft but I believe it is the correct approach. I always laugh when people brag about tape. Tape has an absolutely miserable record. It shouldn't be possible to have such a high first round bust rate, given so many direct parallels between the college and pro game. In any other endeavor that type of bust rate among the top 32 recruits would never be tolerated. It is only tolerated in football because the scouting system is so primitive and flawed, with absurd dependence on tape and subjectivity. Thankfully we are at the early stages of analytics and more advanced and sensible ways to evaluate each position. 

Sorry for the detour. I occasionally like to mention broad scope theory instead of sticking solely to the player at hand. I stumbled upon this site in the first place years ago when I saw Waldo's remarkable twitch formula regarding edge rushers. That is where we are headed and frankly where we should have been decades ago. It is simply too much of a burden to evaluate player after player using opinion alone. 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Awsi Dooger