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BullsandBroncos

2020 Broncos Forum NFL Draft Thread

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2 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

To go to 10 will cost us at least 2 of the R3 picks - to go to 8 will cost the R2+ pick or all three R3 picks

 

Not quite. On the TVC model, 15, one R3 pick and our R4 pick gets us to 10. 15+46 alone would get us to 8.

 

Plus there's a chance we can get up cheaply. It's all supply and demand.

 

I'd rather stay at 15. I think Ruggs or Jeudy will be there.

 

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Yup - people are underestimating how much draft capital it will take to move up, and how many holes we still have on this roster.  We have little to no DL depth, especially after this year.  We have no back up or future tackle, with huge uncertainty their this year and beyond.  We have no safety depth and questions at starter there by next year. We have no coverage linebacker. We need 2 wide receivers. And yes, we need a center (or guard, if you put Glasgow there, but doesn’t really change the point).  And to move up to 8, we will almost certainly pay a premium (we’re the ones wanting to move up), especially if Tua is still on the board, which is starting to get rumored.  No way you move to 8 with only 1 of your 3rds.  Likely 2.  At least a 3rd and 4th.  But sure, all we need to get to the Super Bowl this year is a WR. The (non QB) single position with the highest round 1 bust rate in the deepest WR draft in years with round 1 talent at WR well into the 2nd, where what we are looking for is a WR 2 to complement Sutton.  Brilliant draft strategy🙄

Everybody  who want to trade up should take an oath not to complain about this teams many holes and lack of depth for the next 2 years😜

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One thing that sticks out to me is how much Elway seems to value the front 7.

 

Von and Irving (2011), Wolfe (2012), Sylvester Williams (2013), Shane Ray (2015), Adam Gotsis (2016), Demarcus Walker (2017), Dre'Mont Jones (2019).

 

Only twice has he not spent a top-100 pick on a front 7 guy.

 

I wonder if that streak continues.

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1 hour ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Yup - people are underestimating how much draft capital it will take to move up, and how many holes we still have on this roster.  We have little to no DL depth, especially after this year.  We have no back up or future tackle, with huge uncertainty their this year and beyond.  We have no safety depth and questions at starter there by next year. We have no coverage linebacker. We need 2 wide receivers. And yes, we need a center (or guard, if you put Glasgow there, but doesn’t really change the point).  And to move up to 8, we will almost certainly pay a premium (we’re the ones wanting to move up), especially if Tua is still on the board, which is starting to get rumored.  No way you move to 8 with only 1 of your 3rds.  Likely 2.  At least a 3rd and 4th.  But sure, all we need to get to the Super Bowl this year is a WR. The (non QB) single position with the highest round 1 bust rate in the deepest WR draft in years with round 1 talent at WR well into the 2nd, where what we are looking for is a WR 2 to complement Sutton.  Brilliant draft strategy🙄

Everybody  who want to trade up should take an oath not to complain about this teams many holes and lack of depth for the next 2 years😜

Trading two picks (most likely) to move up is not going to deplete the team of it's depth for two years. That's complete nonsense. If we were trading the entire draft away to move up, I might agree with you. 

I think you're overreacting way too much to potentially trade one (1) third rounder to move up and grab someone. Jeudy, by the way, is arguably the best WR prospect coming into the draft in the last 5-6 years. And at worst, he's Top 3. 

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2 hours ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Yup - people are underestimating how much draft capital it will take to move up, and how many holes we still have on this roster.  We have little to no DL depth, especially after this year.  We have no back up or future tackle, with huge uncertainty their this year and beyond.  We have no safety depth and questions at starter there by next year. We have no coverage linebacker. We need 2 wide receivers. And yes, we need a center (or guard, if you put Glasgow there, but doesn’t really change the point).  And to move up to 8, we will almost certainly pay a premium (we’re the ones wanting to move up), especially if Tua is still on the board, which is starting to get rumored.  No way you move to 8 with only 1 of your 3rds.  Likely 2.  At least a 3rd and 4th.  But sure, all we need to get to the Super Bowl this year is a WR. The (non QB) single position with the highest round 1 bust rate in the deepest WR draft in years with round 1 talent at WR well into the 2nd, where what we are looking for is a WR 2 to complement Sutton.  Brilliant draft strategy🙄

Everybody  who want to trade up should take an oath not to complain about this teams many holes and lack of depth for the next 2 years😜

I am good with the trade up.  

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1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Trading two picks (most likely) to move up is not going to deplete the team of it's depth for two years. That's complete nonsense. If we were trading the entire draft away to move up, I might agree with you. 

I think you're overreacting way too much to potentially trade one (1) third rounder to move up and grab someone. Jeudy, by the way, is arguably the best WR prospect coming into the draft in the last 5-6 years. And at worst, he's Top 3. 

Again, there is no way you trade up to 8th with only 1 3rd rounder.  That is an absolute pipe dream.  Second, every premium (day 1/2) pick you give away depletes the team of depth, to a certain degree.  3rd, Jeudy isn’t even the consensus #1 receiver in THIS year’s draft.  
 

I get it.  This offense has been SO bad, for SO long, that everyone is desperate for something respectable from the O.  We want to score points.  We NEED to score points to keep up with KC.  I get it.  Just to have an offense that isnt putrid may well be worth it as a fan.  But there will ALWAYS be sexy WR’s to go get.  Next years draft is expected to be EVEN BETTER!  This isn’t the NBA where it’s all about individuals.  It’s about numbers and minimizing you weaknesses while creating one area of dominance.  Play the numbers game.  Keep the extra 2 picks.  Keep your eyes on the prize - team building for a SB run, not points this year to try to be a wild card team. 

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13 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Again, there is no way you trade up to 8th with only 1 3rd rounder.  That is an absolute pipe dream.  Second, every premium (day 1/2) pick you give away depletes the team of depth, to a certain degree.  3rd, Jeudy isn’t even the consensus #1 receiver in THIS year’s draft.  
 

I get it.  This offense has been SO bad, for SO long, that everyone is desperate for something respectable from the O.  We want to score points.  We NEED to score points to keep up with KC.  I get it.  Just to have an offense that isnt putrid may well be worth it as a fan.  But there will ALWAYS be sexy WR’s to go get.  Next years draft is expected to be EVEN BETTER!  This isn’t the NBA where it’s all about individuals.  It’s about numbers and minimizing you weaknesses while creating one area of dominance.  Play the numbers game.  Keep the extra 2 picks.  Keep your eyes on the prize - team building for a SB run, not points this year to try to be a wild card team. 

I gotta agree with you on this.  Staying put at 15 and grabbing BPA and letting the draft come to us will allow us to stack this roster with a few more starters and some much needed depth!  We've been depleted on overall roster talent for way too long and this year will allow us to fill spots of need and build up a few key backups, next year we go hard after the missing pieces because lets face it we aren't a Super Bowl contender this year.  

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27 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Again, there is no way you trade up to 8th with only 1 3rd rounder.  That is an absolute pipe dream.  Second, every premium (day 1/2) pick you give away depletes the team of depth, to a certain degree.  3rd, Jeudy isn’t even the consensus #1 receiver in THIS year’s draft.  
 

I get it.  This offense has been SO bad, for SO long, that everyone is desperate for something respectable from the O.  We want to score points.  We NEED to score points to keep up with KC.  I get it.  Just to have an offense that isnt putrid may well be worth it as a fan.  But there will ALWAYS be sexy WR’s to go get.  Next years draft is expected to be EVEN BETTER!  This isn’t the NBA where it’s all about individuals.  It’s about numbers and minimizing you weaknesses while creating one area of dominance.  Play the numbers game.  Keep the extra 2 picks.  Keep your eyes on the prize - team building for a SB run, not points this year to try to be a wild card team. 

Denver needs to be competitive in the next 3 years because they have Lock on the rookie contract. Right, wrong, or other, the way to get where you want to go is to try and win with a young, underpaid QB. I'm not suggesting we can get to 8 with a 3rd. I am suggesting we can get to 10 with a 3rd and a 5th? It's not impossible.

If you can land a prospect that is one of the best at their position in the last 5-6 years, you do it. Plain and simple. Again, I'm not suggesting Denver mortgage the future, but trading a 3rd and 5th, or just a 3rd, or whatever, is not nearly as big a deal as it's made out to be.

After all this, Denver is just gonna end up trading down anyway lol.

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5 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

To go to 10 will cost us at least 2 of the R3 picks - to go to 8 will cost the R2+ pick or all three R3 picks

The more modern TVC from Rich Hill has 1.10 worth 369 points, 1.15 worth 315, and 3.83 worth 52. In 2018, ARI paid the QB premium to move up from exactly 1.15 to exactly 1.10, and it only cost them 3.79 and 5.152. 

3.83 plus a future 4th should do it. 

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13 hours ago, BullsandBroncos said:

I'm going to add to this thread periodically this week. Although I will add the crazy nut Woody Paige has said that from inside sources, he has heard that Elway wants to trade of for Jerry Jeudy which would be so stupid I cannot even fathom it.

put some respect on a legend's name please

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3rd round picks....especially in the Elway regime (!!!!) are far from a guarantee of even being an NFL player let alone a starter. If they love a WR I'm fine with burning some capital to go get him. End of the day I agree with the mindset that we have major holes and we are not quite in position to get away from adding as much talent as we can and just taking BPA. But I'm also fine with a trade up when we've done a good job accumulating picks.

I think a starting caliber WR is essential. It's a HUGE need. I love the idea of getting one of these top 3 guys. Ideally one falls to 15 but we'll see.

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25 minutes ago, champ11 said:

3rd round picks....especially in the Elway regime (!!!!) are far from a guarantee of even being an NFL player let alone a starter. If they love a WR I'm fine with burning some capital to go get him. End of the day I agree with the mindset that we have major holes and we are not quite in position to get away from adding as much talent as we can and just taking BPA. But I'm also fine with a trade up when we've done a good job accumulating picks.

I think a starting caliber WR is essential. It's a HUGE need. I love the idea of getting one of these top 3 guys. Ideally one falls to 15 but we'll see.

Especially in a league that is more and more of a passing league. Denver may not be one WR away, but they are one impact WR away from having a loaded set of skill position players who are all fairly young. That's a dream for a young QB, and QBs win SBs. DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick are great depth to have, but they are not starting caliber for a team that wants to go to the next level.

I get it, by the way, Denver has some serious holes to fill. OL, DL, S, CB among them. But the reality is, if you trust some of your scouts in those mid rounds, you can find contributors. We'll see what happens. This is the least sure I've been about the Broncos approach in many years. It's been well telegraphed in the past.

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I should qualify my willingness to trade up with this: only if Herbert/Becton are falling down the board. If those guys go top 10, one of Thomas or the WR’s is falling to us, and then we should stay put. But worse case scenario is staying at 1.15 and having the top 4 BPA be Henderson, Becton, Herbert, and Chaisson. Then you’re desperate for a trade down. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I should qualify my willingness to trade up with this: only if Herbert/Becton are falling down the board. If those guys go top 10, one of Thomas or the WR’s is falling to us, and then we should stay put. But worse case scenario is staying at 1.15 and having the top 4 BPA be Henderson, Becton, Herbert, and Chaisson. Then you’re desperate for a trade down. 

Yeah Herbert and Becton (and just personal opinion Derrick Brown) are off the board by 1.10 then it’s a can't lose IMO.   If they are falling then trading up is entirely justifiable.   Or trading back.  

If we lose to Gruden week 17 we don’t have to worry about it.  But it is what it is.  

Edited by Broncofan

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10 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

I should qualify my willingness to trade up with this: only if Herbert/Becton are falling down the board. If those guys go top 10, one of Thomas or the WR’s is falling to us, and then we should stay put. But worse case scenario is staying at 1.15 and having the top 4 BPA be Henderson, Becton, Herbert, and Chaisson. Then you’re desperate for a trade down. 

 

Henderson would be an alright pick in that scenario I reckon.

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