BDL 2017 Week 3: Portland Horned Owls @ Oklahoma City Rogues

[TedLavie]

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (GTD) are game-time decisions.

[TedLavie]

Portland

 

QB1: Derek Carr
RB1: LeSean McCoy
WR1: Sammy Watkins
WR2: Davante Adams
WR3: Jermaine Kearse
TE1: Charles Clay
LT:  Alejandro Villanueva 
LG: Anthony Castanzo
C:  Ben Jones
RG: J.C Tretter
RT: Jared VeldHeer

Reserves:

QB2: Tyrod Taylor
RB2: Jordan Howard -(Q)
RB3: Ameer Abdullah
FB:  Kyle Juzsczyk 
WR4: Seth Roberts
TE2: Austin Hooper
OL6: Luke Joekel
OL7: Ryan Jensen
 

Portland's Defense:

RDE: Robert Quinn
3T:  Kawann Short
DT:  Timmy Jernigan
LDE: Emmanual Ogbah
WLB: Telvin Smith
MLB: Dont'a Hightower -(GTD)
CB1: Jimmy Smith
CB2: Sean Smith
SCB: Jason McCourtey
FS: Glover Quin
SS: Malcolm Jenkins

Reserves:

SLB: Bruce Irvin
RLB: Zach Brown
CB4: Bashaud Breeland
CB5: P.J Williams
S3:  Daniel Sorenson
DE3: Charles Johnson
DE4: Shaq Barret
DT3: Michael Pierce

 

OKC

 

QB: Cam Newton

RB: Jonathan Stewart

WR: Jeremy Maclin

WR: Adam Thielen

TE: Jordan Reed

TE: Jared Cook

LT: Jack Conklin

LG: Richie Incognito

C: Weston Richburg

RG: T.J. Lang

RT: Morgan Moses

 

RB: Joe Mixon

RB: LeGarrette Blount

RB: Latavius Murray

WR: Allen Hurns

WR: Nelson Agholor

WR: Mike Wallace

WR: Taywan Taylor

TE: Clive Walford

 

ROLB: Ryan Kerrigan

RE: Cameron Heyward

NT: Star Lotulelei

LE: Eddie Goldman

LOLB: Von Miller

WLB: Kendell Beckwith

MLB: Eric Kendricks

CB: Patrick Peterson

CB: Eli Apple

CB: Brent Grimes

FS: Jordan Poyer

 

DL: Montravius Adams

DL: Carl Davis

DL: Ahtyba Rubin

OLB: Connor Barwin

LB: Darron Lee

CB: Trevor Williams

CB: Morris Claiborne

S: Malik Hooker

[TedLavie]

Portland

 

Portland Offensive Gameplan:

This is a must win game for us to avoid going 0-3. OKC is coming off a brutal divisonal game with Wichita who is their most hated rival and they'll be exhausted coming into this game, they'll probably be looking ahead and that will allow us to get an advantage over them and eventually the win. 

The Passing Game: This week we take on OKC and their elite defense, Sammy Watkins will be our no.1 WR and we'll use slants and bubble screens to get him touches but since he'll be be covered by Patrick Peterson for the most part we'll avoid throwing at Peterson for the most part but we'll try and get Sammy involved by using him on reverses and taking a few deep shots his way off play action. Davante Adams will most likely get matched up with Brent Grimes who is still playing on a decent level, but he gets beat deep by elite route runners like Davante Adams we'll mostly attack Apple and Grimes since they're not BDL startable CBs. OKC's Safety duo isn't awful but starting a rookie Safety next to a medicore starter in Poyer isn't going to help their CBs all that much. We'll be using a quick short passing game to get the ball out quick to counter OKC's fierce pass rush, We'll leave a RB or TE to help block or chip when going out for the ball to keep Von Miller from getting to Carr. Carr deals extremely well with pressure so even when Miller or Kerrigan gets to him, he'll get rid of the ball or use his legs to extend the play. We'll also move the pocket quite a bit on Rollouts and bootlegs to keep them from getting a straight shot at the QB. LeSean McCoy will be heavily featured as a pass catcher out of the backfield, Charles Clay will be our no.1 TE and get a few Red Zone looks. Our blocking isn't the best in BDL but with these scheme adjustments I feel like we'll be able to keep Carr's pocket clean so he can beat OKC's soft secondary. Their ILBs are also pretty awful and can't cover at all, Especially Kendricks. We're going to commit to running the ball to keep their defense on edge and use play action once we get the running game goming. I expect they'll mostly be playing Man Coverage to try and force my WRs to beat them one on one, which is exactly what I want since my wRs are more than capable of it. 

The Running Game: LeSean will get most of the touches but Howard will mix in for about 40% of the carries while LeSean is used as a pass catcher, Abdullah will also get a few touches. While OKC does have some elite front seven defenders, their D-line for the most part is underwhelming, Goldman is an injury prone player who struggles to get a pass rush and stop the run, Loutelei is nothing more than an average NT who offers nothing as a pass rusher. Cameron Heyward is quite a good all around DE but after him their d-line depth gets quite bad, Carl Davis is the ravens 5th D-lineman in their rotation. Kerrigan+Miller are an excellent duo of pass rushers but Kerrigan isn't the greatest run defender. Plus OKC's LBs outside of those two are pretty awful against the run, which is why we'll commit to running the ball on at least 45% of the plays to keep them from focusing on the passing game too much. My O-line has some very good Run Blockers up front and we'll open decent holes for LeSean and Howard. We'll Use Juyzcyck a decent amount as a FB/TE hybrid to pass protect/open holes for our RBs.

The Blocking: Castanzo is a very good run blocker but he isn't the best pass blocker so he's being moved to LG, A position he played in the past. Villanueva is an underrated LT who specializes in pass protection, he'll take over Carr's blindside and should keep it Clean. Ben Jones is a very good C and is a big part of why the Titans run the ball so well, Tretter is a very good C/G and Veldheer is a mauling run blocker. With this line we'll keep Carr protected well and open holes for our RBs, since we'll be getting the ball out quicker to counter their pass rush 

TDLR; Keep Carr Protected, Target their weaknesses, Run the ball.

Portland Defensive Gameplan: 

Pass Defense: Cam Newton is far from 100% and is very inaccurate right now, Our main Goal will be taking away Jordan Reed who is also not 100% healthy, we'll take him out of the game by putting Malcolm Jenkins on him. Jenkins was able to erase Reed when he covered him in week 1, He won't cover him for every single snap but he will spend the majority of his time covering Reed. Jimmy Smith will cover Jeremy Maclin, Sean Smith will cover their no.2 WR, and the slot CB will cover their no.3 WR. Newton's Weapons aren't the most imposing WRs in the world but they're pretty solid. We'll also use more 3 safety looks with Daniel Sorenson this week to confuse Newton who has trouble reading defenses, we'll use a mix of Zone and Man to give him a lot of different coverage looks. OKC's o-line is far from 100% healthy right now and I expect my pass rush will be able to put tons of pressure on Newton. If we get Dont'a Hightower back this week, he'll be tasked with spying Newton on a few snaps to keep him from running too much. If not we'll still have a QB spy but they won't focus on him as much. Telvin Smith is very good in coverage as well, If Dont'a Hightower can't go Zach Brown will take on the MLB role and Telvin Smith will be the QB of our defense. We'll rotate our DBs,LBs as needed and play dime packages when they spread out etc. 

Run Defense: OKC's Best RB is Cam Newton and while he's a big running threat he's shied away from that to begin this season as for their other RBs. Blount is 32 and struggles to get to the second level since he lost his burst. Mixon is a rookie who can't pass protect and Terrance West is nothing more than a plodding runner who lost his job to Buck Allen. Stewart is 30+ at this point and is averaging under 3.5 YPC the first two weeks of the season. We'll mostly focus on taking away their passing game and daring them to run it on us, I doubt they'll be able to have much success in the running game with my front seven putting tons of pressure on Newton and shutting down their medicore RBs and their issues at the OT position. Plus my LBs are great at defending the run and will keep their RBs from getting more than 3+ yards.

The Pass Rush: Quinn+Short+Jernigan+Ogbah is a fierce D-line that has no weaknesses, Ogbah is playing on a very high level as a 2nd year player. Quinn is back to his old self and Short is the best D-lineman in the NFL not named J.J watt or Aaron Donald. Jernigan is a solid pass rusher and is playing well for the eagles, We'll rotate them with their backups to keep them fresh and we'll move Bruce Irvin around as a pass rushing Chess piece to find matchups to get to Newton. Pierce will rotate with Jernigan on running downs/Goaline situations and we'll play goaline when needed.  OKC's line is struggling right now with Conklin struggling the first two weeks of the season and Richburg struggling to keep Eli's pocket clean, plus Bahktiari potentially being out again this week leaves Newtons Blindside open to Blitzes which we'll take advantage of. We'll put tons of pressure on Newton this week and force them into abandoning the running game early to try and keep up with our offense who will score quite a bit. We'll also Blitz Newton a bit to force him into getting rid of the ball more often or forcing him out of the pocket. Johnson will rotate in with Ogbah+Quinn to get him some pass rushing oppurtunities. 

TDLR; Stop the run, shut down the pass, Hit Newton.

 

OKC

 

After back-to-back road games to open the season, we finally get to come and play in our new home in Oklahoma City. We Oklahomans are absolutely crazy about our sports, and it's undeniable that this game would have been sold out for months. We bring crowds that were good enough to make the NBA want to come here, and we will bring that same energy and enthusiasm to this one, giving us a nice homefield advantage. In this game we take on the Portland Horned Owls, who come in as a dangerous 0-2 team. They do, however, have a big weakness along their disorganized offensive line, and we believe we can take enough advantage of that to get a win.

 

Offense:

Our offense this week will be a fast-paced run heavy offense with a good mix of read-option. We will look to attack the edges, because Emmanuel Ogbah and Robert Quinn both struggle quite a bit against the run. The interior of Portland's defensive line is significantly stronger, but Portland only suited up 3 interior defenders last week, and our fast-paced attack should wear them down.

Jonathan Stewart will get the start again and be the primary option in the running game, but Joe Mixon will get a fair share of carries also. LeGarrette Blount will be used situationally as a power back. Our read-option packages will also get Cam Newton involved in the running game and continue to abuse the weak run defense on the edge.

Naturally, we will use some play action to take some shots deep. With Jeremy Maclin, Jared Cook, Allen Hurns, and Mike Wallace, we have a lot of speed to get deep, and we will rotate in all of our pass catchers to try and find a matchup that we like. Even though he struggled with Case Keenum throwing to him, Adam Thielen is an emerging star, and we like him one on one against any of the Portland CBs. He will be our primary target when we throw changeups with the intermediate passing game.

With David Bakhtiari out, Jack Conklin draws the start on the left side. We think that this change will affect little in the run game, as Conklin should still be able to overpower Quinn at the point of attack. When passing, we will provide help to Conklin on nearly all plays. Either the running back will be left in to block, or we will roll Newton towards the right side. We will also line our TE up on the left side often to provide additional help.

 

Defense:

We are going to use a defensive strategy similar to Singapore's 5-2 from last week. Star Lotulelei will line up over the center and command double teams. Cameron Heyward and Eddie Goldman will line up over the tackles and play two gaps. Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan on the edge will crash into the pocket and pressure Derek Carr, only occasionally dropping into coverage. With the Portland offensive line still in disarray after the trade of Kevin Zeitler, we think we will dominate the line of scrimmage with this look similar to how Singapore did.

Kendell Beckwith had a strong debut, and he will draw the start over a struggling Darron Lee. He will be assigned to LeSean McCoy in both the run and pass game. We trust Eric Kendricks more in coverage, and he will draw Charles Clay. With our defensive line controlling the line of scrimmage, these two linebackers ought to be able to contain the Portland running game.

Portland has one true receiving threat in Sammy Watkins, and he will draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson. With Peterson taking away Watkins and our defensive line getting quick pressure on Carr, we have little worry of deep passing from Portland. Because of this, we will utilize a lot of single safety looks with Jordan Poyer, who will mainly play a deep Cover-1 zone. This frees us up to bring a third corner onto the field to match up with Portland's 3-WR looks. Eli Apple will cover Davante Adams, and Brent Grimes will cover Jermaine Kearse.

When Portland comes out with a second TE or FB, we will take Brent Grimes off the field in favor of Malik Hooker. Hooker will then play the Cover-1 free safety and Poyer will rotate into the box and cover Charles Clay, moving Kendricks to the TE or FB. When Portland goes four wide, Lotulelei and Beckwith will come off the field for Hooker and Trevor Williams. In this case, Hooker will once again take the free safety role, Trevor Williams will cover the fourth WR, and Poyer will play a robber role with the option to blitz.

[Xmad]

With Reed out, we'd put that attention on their receivers and keep the same game plan for the most part and focus on shutting down their passing game and forcing them to try and run it.

[Jlash]

10 minutes ago, OleXmad said:

With Reed out, we'd put that attention on their receivers and keep the same game plan for the most part and focus on shutting down their passing game and forcing them to try and run it.

Don't try to alter game plans after injuries dumb dumb, just let it be. 

[Hockey5djh]

On 9/24/2017 at 12:27 PM, TedLavie said:

TDLR; Keep Carr Protected, Target their weaknesses, Run the ball.

 

On 9/24/2017 at 12:27 PM, TedLavie said:

TDLR; Stop the run, shut down the pass, Hit Newton.

@OleXmad...please read those outside of context and chuckle with me.

[Hockey5djh]

This one is pretty one sided for me. I really think OKC missed big by not taking out Portlands RBs in space. I don't think their WRs are a big threat with that pass rush but using Kendricks on Charles Clay and Beckwith on McCoy was a mistake, I don't think anyone is really scared of Clay taking over a game like McCoy or Howard could.

[Whicker]

2 hours ago, Hockey5djh said:

This one is pretty one sided for me. I really think OKC missed big by not taking out Portlands RBs in space. I don't think their WRs are a big threat with that pass rush but using Kendricks on Charles Clay and Beckwith on McCoy was a mistake, I don't think anyone is really scared of Clay taking over a game like McCoy or Howard could.

We get it. You don't like my team and will never vote for it. 

[Xmad]

5 hours ago, Hockey5djh said:

 

@OleXmad...please read those outside of context and chuckle with me.

Now I'm questiong what Carr and Newton did after the game... 

[DingoLadd]

Losing Jordan Reed is a massive loss for OKC honestly I think OKC wins this matchup 6/10 times but outside of Peterson limiting Watkins their secondary is gonna struggle. I think Portland is able to do enough with a strong RB duo and Carr can squeak out a last minute win against a vulnerable secondary. 17-14 in an ugly slugfest.

[TedLavie]

There's too much shuffling in Portland OL tbh and Veldheer looked atrocious last night. Carr will be pressured all night long. Quick passing game is nice, but I'm not sure their wideouts get quickly open consistently enough to sustain long drives. That being said, I can see some big run and catch play with OKC single high safety look. I like that Portland stays committed to the run though, it pays off down the road. On the other hand, I just don't think OKC has the personnel to run their gameplan. Their runners are meh, Newton looks hurt, Reed is injured and Conklin is in full sophomore slump (though he did look better in the 2nd half against Seattle). As for the deep passing part, I think Portland safety duo can shut this down.

Portland pulls away at the end of the game 19-10

[Hockey5djh]

17 hours ago, Whicker said:

We get it. You don't like my team and will never vote for it. 

Was it that bad from me last week too?

The fun part about doing these is I still can't associate teams with names and/or match-ups so I feel super unbiased doing them.

[Ragnarok]

Both offenses have some serious issues whether it be an OL in shambles or poor QB play or Reed being out.  

Both defenses look like they can dominate and make this a very low scoring affair.  I trust the RBs on Portland to do just enough on their own to give them the victory.

[Whicker]

With all the "gameplan matters" talk that has been thrown around the past couple weeks, the early voting in this game is really surprising to me. XMad made two of the biggest mistakes you can make in BDL game planning. He prepared for a pass heavy offense when the opponent was going run heavy and he made his main goal to shut down a player who not only didn't play, but he was purposefully left out of any important part of my gameplan. I really feel like I covered my weaknesses on offense here really well. Newton had shoulder surgery and is still rusty and inaccurate, but he can still use his legs to great effect. I can understand having my OT issues if I were passing the ball, but run blocking is a much easier process and can lessen the negative impact of a inexperienced tackle. I also am fairly certain I have the best guard pairing in BDL, if not then it's in the top 2. Incognito and Lang are both top 10 guards and have been playing at a high level for years. I have an average BDL starter in Richburg, giving me one of the best interior offensive lines in BDL. Even if they aren't the absolute best in talent, I have had the same six linemen (including Moses) since the beginning of last season. There's a lot of talk about O-line consistency in the Cuba gamethread and how it matters. I guess I should point this out in my game plan every week and resume fluffing my players. Jonathan Stewart is a bottom-end BDL starter but he's a BDL starter and he would have a good game behind my interior line. Mixon hasn't put up the big stats yet but even with Conklin at LT I've upgraded all of his O-line positions. This isn't like Compton last year where he was rolling out Kenneth Dixon and Dion Lewis as his RBs. I've got legitimate starters behind a great O-line against edge players who are bad against the run. Also Adam Thielen is great and soon you all will realize it. It wasn't just Stefon Diggs that made Keenum look good.

On defense I'm running the same setup as Singapore last week. SirA used one of his safeties as his slot CB last week so he also ran with a single high safety look. Our D-lines are very similar in talent. In terms of impact, we both have a super elite player in Donald/Miller, a very good interior player in Hankins/Heyward, a solid nose tackle in Joseph/Lotulelei, and an above average BDL edge rusher in Griffen/Kerrigan. SirA won last week based almost entirely on the strength of his defensive line against a porous and reshuffled offensive line. XMad once again reshuffled his line for this week and it still isn't all that great. There's also a huge talent difference between Singapore's secondary and mine. Patrick Peterson alone gives me a better secondary than Singapore. I get Apple isn't great and Grimes was out, but Poyer has played some of the best safety in the league through three games. He's also better than anyone in the Singapore secondary. Kendell Beckwith has played very well in every game he's played as a pro. He's not Lavonte David yet or anything and I know PFF isn't god but they have him graded as a top 10 LB. Is there really a better chance that he's a bad player having a super hot start than him just being a good player or better? I also don't think it's a mistake to put a better coverage LB on a TE instead of an RB. You want your better coverage guys on the better route runners.

[Jlash]

19 minutes ago, Whicker said:

With all the "gameplan matters" talk that has been thrown around the past couple weeks, the early voting in this game is really surprising to me

I think I'm the only one really harping on game plans, and I haven't voted yet. And I agree with you, lots of people citing votes against you for injuries to guys like Reed or Newtons early accuracy struggles when you're game plan is very run heavy is confusing.