Final Mock - All Angles

[Joe]

I decided to take an all-around approach to this mock. For each selection within the first 5 rounds I will include 4 picks. The first will be what will happen, the second will be what I'd like to see happen, the third is what could happen, and the last is what we do NOT want to happen. From round 6 on, I will provide a list of players that will probably be taken and players I would like to see taken. This covers any trades that will undoubtedly happen, which you can't predict most of the time I'm not going to play games with FA as I don't think there are any players available at the moment that are of help or use to us, especially given our current cap situation; especially because I don't think we cut Lane Taylor. I apologize in advance for the length of each pick here. 

1(30):

What will happen: Josh Jones, OT, Houston - Look, the guy's a physical specimen with some fixable issues as an OL. Wagner is a guy that's a stop-gap player who, when healthy, plays to the level we've expected from Bulaga. It's no secret that Detroit doesn't know what they're doing as an organization so they give up on a guy who had one bad year due to injury when he's in the prime of his career. I wasn't a fan of the signing originally, but doing my research and comparing PFF scores, he can cover the time it takes for Jones to get up to speed; barring injury of course. 

What I'd like to see happen: We trade back and draft Jalen Reagor or draft him straight up at 30. Reagor is the opposite of every single receiver we have in that he's smaller, shiftier, speedier in pads, and tougher than one would imagine(not to say our WR's aren't tough). While his combine numbers were horrible, he redeemed himself on his pro day shaving his 3-cone drill time from 7.31 all the way down to 6.75 in particular. His QB play was horrendous this past year and his stock would be much higher had he played on a team with a real QB like Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, or Ohio St; not the rotation TCU seemed to have, primarily due to nagging injuries and inexperience.

What could happen: We may trade up for Patrick Queen or Justin Jefferson. A lot of people equate Gutey for trading up due to the fact that he's had the ammo to trade up the past two years. Does he do it this year? Doubt it; we just don't have the kind of draft capital that we've had in years past and for a team with significant depth issues in both the secondary and along the DL, he'll more than likely keep those picks to draft a couple impact players, then draft for depth. Personally, if we go an odd route, I'd rather see Kristian Fulton or Jeff Gladney taken in the event King doesn't come back after this year.

What we DON'T want to happen: Kenneth Murray. He won't be there because New Orleans or Baltimore will take him, but the guy's got Stephone Anthony written all over him due to his poor decision making skills. People are enamored with his athleticism as they are with his one-year wonder teammate Neville Gallimore, but Oklahoma won games because of their offense, not because they had a great defense. Anytime Murray's been legitimately challenged, he's often times found on the sidelines shaken up or rooted out of the play by a decent block like we saw against Baylor and LSU in particular. Also, bear in mind that Brock Purdy went into Norman last year and racked up 41 points on that defense. Can you name a WR on that ISU roster or ISU's starting RB? Neither can I...

2(62):

What will happen: Jordan Elliott, IDL, Mizzou: This may be a reach to some, but he's scheme adverse, his ceiling is on the rise, his strength is NFL-ready shown in his bull-rush, and with an NFL training program he can unlock more of his natural athletic ability and refine his technique. Elliott was constantly double-teamed at Mizzou and still found a way to produce with very little EDGE talent around him. In the tape I saw, he was far better lined up at the 3-tech than as a NT, which showed up in the Tennessee game. Still, the core fundamentals are there despite them being a bit inconsistent and as a rotational player, we don't have to worry about his motor cooling anytime soon.

What I'd like to see happen: I want to trade up here and grab a guy like Trevon Diggs or another DB who's falling. King has been injury-prone and we really don't know what we have out of many of our DB's behind him; Tramon is still a FA as well FWIW. We may need to trade up for the WR we want if we pass on Reagor initially or if we like another WR that may go between picks 40-55. 

What could happen: We stay put and pick JK Dobbins. While Packer nation would collectively lose its mind, Dobbins is a great all-around back with the production and physicality you want out of a RB; scouts have compared him to Emmitt Smith FWIW.

What we DON'T want to happen: Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman has the RAS score you like as well as some other nice tools, but you look at his tape and nothing really stands out. He's basically a bigger, slower Denzel Mims who struggles with separation and doesn't have the on-field burner speed this team sorely lacks.

3(94):

What will happen: Malik Harrison, ILB, OSU: There's a good chance we could trade up for Harrison here and maybe even select him at 62 if we don't like the board. Harrison has a lot of athletic ability to cover sideline to sideline posting an impressive 6.83 in the 3-cone drill despite literally being the size of Derrick Henry. However, his value is more or less sniffing out run plays and bringing the pop. He's Blake Martinez with athleticism, but slides to the 3rd given that he can be tricked by play-action-pass and other misdirection play-calls. That said, he's an excellent compliment to Christian Kirksey.

What I'd like to see happen: I'd rather take Jordan Elliott here, but I don't seem him available past the mid-80's. Raekwon Davis will fall down the boards given his questionable performance over the last 2 years and questions about his maturity. He's just not the guy he was in 2017, but that doesn't mean he can't get back to that level. If he's falling into the third, we should trade up and at least take a chance on him because he's not going to be the every down linemen he was at Alabama and that's not what we would be expecting from him as a 3-tech. At worst, he's Jerell Worthy without the injury issue, but again, he may be worth the risk at this point in the draft. If he isn't there we should trade back into the early 4th and maybe move up in the 5th if we negotiate with the right team. Each year, the players you want in the 3rd round are typically are gone within the first 15-20 picks and we've had HORRIBLE luck in the 3rd over the past 10 years. It seems as if there's a major value gap between about pick 83 and pick 97 every year. I'd love to trade up for an Adam Trautman or an Akeem Davis-Gaither if need be, but if we get a knot of ILB's or TE's at that point in the draft, we may not see the need to trade up and could select one at that spot.

What could happen: Saadiq Charles, OL, LSU. Charles offers great value here as a developmental prospect that could flip inside to Guard given his ability to pull and work in space downfield. He's a bit heavier than we would like, but those things can always be corrected during TC. Billy Turner is not the long-term solution at RG and has an out after this current year while Lane Taylor's contract expires after this coming year; which is why Taylor probably won't get cut as we would all like to see. However, if Charles is a guy that could slide inside, that takes care of a future need as Turner could hold onto the position at RG until Charles would be ready. If Charles is better on the left side, Jenkins has shown the versatility to move to the right side.

What we DON'T want to happen: We stay put and/or reach on someone(see both 2014 3rd rounders). Again, the 3rd round has been by far our worst round over the last 10 years. Let's take a look at who we've taken in that span:
2010: Morgan Burnett: Pretty high pick in the 3rd round at 71 and proved to be one of those 2nd round calibur players who gets snapped up in the first 10-15 picks in the 3rd. Definitely a hit.
2011: Alex Green: Sorry AG20, but this guy was 10-ply. Afraid to make contact and couldn't show off the wheels we saw on tape at Hawaii. Definitely a whiff.
2014a: Khyri Thornton: Couldn't stay on the field and was literally only selected because we heard Belicheck would've taken him 3 picks later...allegedly. Thornton is the face of Dom's DL Duds.
2014b: Richard Rodgers: Rodgers got selected during a run on TE's where a lot of teams reached on TE's with 6th and 7th round grades who never panned out. Unfortunately, we were one of them...
2015: Ty Montgomery: Need I say more...
2016: Kyler Fackrell: He had one good year, but we remember him looking clueless a lot of the time, sadly.
2017: Montravious Adams: *see Monty
2018: Oren Burks: We traded up on a gamble that just hasn't paid off.

4(136):

What will happen: K'Von Wallace, DB, Clemson: He may be a bit of a reach here, but he's got an RAS score of 9.43 and traits that Pettine looks for in zone coverage. Wallace isn't afraid to mix it up either. He's not going to be starting material, but his presence will be felt on ST's and he should be able to carve out a nice niche as an inexpensive role player.

What I'd like to see happen: Darrynton Evans, RB, App. St: He's an immediate upgrade over Jamaal Williams and would most certainly push Dexter Williams off the roster. He can tote the rock with little fall off from Aaron Jones in the event we want to limit Jones' reps. AJ Dillon from Boston College is another player I'd love here. He can both tote the rock and function as an H-back given his size.

What could happen: Reggie Robinson, CB, Tulsa: Robinson would be a great role player who has a big frame and incredible athleticism including a high RAS score. 

What we DON'T want to happen: we blow this pick on a TE. It's no secret this year's class is horrible because there are essentially two kinds of TE's that will be available here: athletic TE's who can't catch a cold, and blocking TE's that can probably be had in UDFA.

5(175):

What will happen: James Morgan: Now would be the time to pick him and I think he'd be an upgrade over Boyle and Wilkins.

What I want to see happen: We find a way to move further up in the 5th. We need impact players that are both starters and depth. Just don't think we can get either kind of player at 175 given our needs this year.

What could happen: This pick could be used in a package to trade up in the 2nd or 3rd.

What we DON'T want to happen: what terrible thing could possibly go wrong at this point?

 

Players we may target in the last two rounds(categorized by position):
RB:
Jet Anderson
Michael Warren II
James Robinson
 

WR:
Quartney Davis(I think he falls)
Dezmon Patmon(high RAS)
Lynn Bowden

OL: 
Jake Hanson(potential C prospect)
Jon Runyan
Charlie Heck(4 year starter who has been solid unleashing heck, pun intended)
Calvin Throckmorton

DL:
Darrion Daniels
Tyler Clark
McTelvin Agim

DB:
Tanner Muse
Stanford Samuels
Nevelle Clarke

Players I'd like to see us target:
Cole McDonald - QB - Hawaii(tools are there and could use a better environment)
Shea Patterson - QB - Michigan(thought he got a raw deal with Harbaugh)
John Hightower - WR - BSU(burner)
Malcolm Perry - WR/RB - Navy(gadget player)
Joey Magnifico - TE - Memphis
Charlie Taumoepeau - TE - Portland St.(multi-purpose player)
Scott Frantz - OL - K-State
Zach Shackelford - OL/C - Texas
Ray Lima - IDL - Iowa St.(the stats aren't there, but he apparently clogs the middle and can collapse the pocket due to incredible leverage creating opportunities for teammates)
Josiah Coatney - IDL - Ole Miss
Derrek Tuszka - EDGE - NDSU(excellent athlete, incredible production)
 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Joe

[Packerraymond]

I see no chance we don't have a WR within the first 3 picks, that would be a colossal fail with this class being what it is. 

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I see no chance we don't have a WR within the first 3 picks, that would be a colossal fail with this class being what it is. 

Agreed. The question is "who?" Shenault's too early at 30 given his injury history and may not be there at 62, Jefferson's probably off the board at 30, we all think Reagor is a reach there, Mims' play speed doesn't match his 40 time, then who ya got? Personally, I want Reagor because he's so much different than everyone else we got.

[Packerraymond]

6 minutes ago, Joe said:

Agreed. The question is "who?" Shenault's too early at 30 given his injury history and may not be there at 62, Jefferson's probably off the board at 30, we all think Reagor is a reach there, Mims' play speed doesn't match his 40 time, then who ya got? Personally, I want Reagor because he's so much different than everyone else we got.

Well I completely disagree with your Pittman take, I'd be a big fan of his at 62.Same with Claypool, DPJ and Bryan Edwards. 

We all saw DK Metcalf and AJ Brown fall out of the top 50 last year, in a weaker class at that. I would be shocked if one of Shenault, Higgins, Aiyuk, Raegor, Mims isn't there at 62. 

[Joe]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Well I completely disagree with your Pittman take, I'd be a big fan of his at 62.Same with Claypool, DPJ and Bryan Edwards. 

We all saw DK Metcalf and AJ Brown fall out of the top 50 last year, in a weaker class at that. I would be shocked if one of Shenault, Higgins, Aiyuk, Raegor, Mims isn't there at 62. 

First of all, go look at Pittman's numbers and compare that to everyone else we have on the roster. He's Lazard from a better program.

I'm banking on Shenault being there at 62 if we don't select a WR first. Out of the second list you provided, Shenault and Higgins would be the two to be there while all three of your first list would be there. Out of those five, I'd rather roll with Claypool, he has no serious injury history, the big body you get with Higgins, the measured speed you get from Reagor and Mims, the vision you could get with Aiyuk, and the physicality you'll get with Edwards.  

[festiveonion]

Love the analysis. Love the effort. 

Maybe Wagner gets to average Bulaga at Wagners best. Maybe. Agree that he's a stopgap tho.
Personally don't see Jones being available at 30. Wont be upset with the pick. Wont be stoked. As is the life of the OL. Someone between Ezra, Niang, Jackson, Jones or Wilson will be available. Don't think they go that route in the first if I'm being honest. Just my thing this year tho.

Love Elliott. No problems there.  
Don't want Harrison. Know the Packers are doing their diligence bringing all types in at that ILB position for interviews. Don't want a limited guy at all in this draft much less top 3 picks. 
Think thats a totally fair analysis tho. Charles is a perfect prospect for us for a lot of reasons. Don't think the Packers want him high with those character issues. Again, fair. 
(nitpicking here but Green is a stud and perfect for that team.. pre-injury) Agree with the 3rd round being our oof round. 

If we get Wallace at our 4th I'll be ecstatic. Think he'll surprise with how high he goes. I'll fight you on TE being a bad pick in the 4th. Class is meh. Value is where it needs to be there tho. 
Think you meant James Morgan in the 5th. Like that pick if so. 

Last two round comments:

No way Bowden makes it to the 6th. 
Don't like Heck.



All in all, excellent analysis. Almost every guy the Packers will probably have on their board.. and at the place you mocked them. Dig it.
Can tomorrow happen already?

[jleisher]

Nice job!

 

[Joe]

2 hours ago, festiveonion said:

Love the analysis. Love the effort. 

Maybe Wagner gets to average Bulaga at Wagners best. Maybe. Agree that he's a stopgap tho.
Personally don't see Jones being available at 30. Wont be upset with the pick. Wont be stoked. As is the life of the OL. Someone between Ezra, Niang, Jackson, Jones or Wilson will be available. Don't think they go that route in the first if I'm being honest. Just my thing this year tho.

Love Elliott. No problems there.  
Don't want Harrison. Know the Packers are doing their diligence bringing all types in at that ILB position for interviews. Don't want a limited guy at all in this draft much less top 3 picks. 
Think thats a totally fair analysis tho. Charles is a perfect prospect for us for a lot of reasons. Don't think the Packers want him high with those character issues. Again, fair. 
(nitpicking here but Green is a stud and perfect for that team.. pre-injury) Agree with the 3rd round being our oof round. 

If we get Wallace at our 4th I'll be ecstatic. Think he'll surprise with how high he goes. I'll fight you on TE being a bad pick in the 4th. Class is meh. Value is where it needs to be there tho. 
Think you meant James Morgan in the 5th. Like that pick if so. 

Last two round comments:

No way Bowden makes it to the 6th. 
Don't like Heck.



All in all, excellent analysis. Almost every guy the Packers will probably have on their board.. and at the place you mocked them. Dig it.
Can tomorrow happen already?

If Jones isn't on the board, I bet we go Reagor or Blacklock at 30 even though I hate Blacklock and think Elliott's the better prospect long-term because of his versatility. I almost went Wallace at 94 TBH but some of the negatives make me think he'll fall. Wouldn't hate him at 94 though. Can't help but think Bowden falls given the depth of the draft class and the fact that he didn't play WR last year; not to mention the fact that guys at other positions with 2nd and 3rd round grades will fall to the 4th given the depth of the WR class as well as the value at the top vs. the OL, EDGE, and DB classes. 

[thrILL!]

In an endless sea of mock drafts, your format made this one much more unique and enjoyable. 

[mikemike778]

14 hours ago, Joe said:

Agreed. The question is "who?" Shenault's too early at 30 given his injury history and may not be there at 62, Jefferson's probably off the board at 30, we all think Reagor is a reach there, Mims' play speed doesn't match his 40 time, then who ya got? Personally, I want Reagor because he's so much different than everyone else we got.

 

Very interesting .. good read thanks.

Agree with paclerraymond though. All the indications are that Gute has WR as a position that needs serious attention this off-season and so far when he has prioritised a position he has hit it hard - this is a year where need should match the draft. Your 'what will happen' has us not draft a receiver in the first five rounds. I think that is extremely unlikely and if it does happen then it probably means that the draft has gone wrong. If anything its more likely he will draft multiple guys there (although Funchess signing changes that chance a bit).

As for the who - it obviously depends who Gute likes. He has shown in the past that he will move around as required so would expect there are receivers he wants and will have a plan to move (up or down) to the right place to get them. Obviously this isn't guaranteed and could go wrong if players are taken away from where you expect but if we walk away without a receiver relatively early on then that's probably what has happened (the plan has gone wrong).

Agree though that the 'who' should definitely be someone with a different skillset to what we have got now.

[wgbeethree]

F+

Misleading title.

I don't know if I'm I right or am I being purposely obtuse but literally none of the guys in this mock are named Angle?

I hate myself for that and I'll see myself out. 

[pgwingman]

18 hours ago, Joe said:

 

What we DON'T want to happen: We stay put and/or reach on someone(see both 2014 3rd rounders). Again, the 3rd round has been by far our worst round over the last 10 years. Let's take a look at who we've taken in that span:
2010: Morgan Burnett: Pretty high pick in the 3rd round at 71 and proved to be one of those 2nd round calibur players who gets snapped up in the first 10-15 picks in the 3rd. Definitely a hit.
2011: Alex Green: Sorry AG20, but this guy was 10-ply. Afraid to make contact and couldn't show off the wheels we saw on tape at Hawaii. Definitely a whiff.
2014a: Khyri Thornton: Couldn't stay on the field and was literally only selected because we heard Belicheck would've taken him 3 picks later...allegedly. Thornton is the face of Dom's DL Duds.
2014b: Richard Rodgers: Rodgers got selected during a run on TE's where a lot of teams reached on TE's with 6th and 7th round grades who never panned out. Unfortunately, we were one of them...
2015: Ty Montgomery: Need I say more...
2016: Kyler Fackrell: He had one good year, but we remember him looking clueless a lot of the time, sadly.
2017: Montravious Adams: *see Monty
2018: Oren Burks: We traded up on a gamble that just hasn't paid off.

 

Ugh. Why would you kill my mood with this. I remember scratching my head after every one of those picks, thinking we reached on a player who most of the media had graded a few rounds lower. Turns out the media got it right almost every time.

[Joe]

3 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Ugh. Why would you kill my mood with this. I remember scratching my head after every one of those picks, thinking we reached on a player who most of the media had graded a few rounds lower. Turns out the media got it right almost every time.

2014 was the worst. I was furious when we selected Thornton who had a 6th round grade on him because I wanted Josh Huff or Terrence West at that spot and then almost had a complete and utter emotional breakdown when we selected Rodgers. I can honestly say that if I were in my 60's, I would have had a heart attack that year. 

[Dubz41]

3 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Ugh. Why would you kill my mood with this. I remember scratching my head after every one of those picks, thinking we reached on a player who most of the media had graded a few rounds lower. Turns out the media got it right almost every time.

Don't despair.  The third round used to be our friend especially in 1995.  In fact it played a huge part in our Superb Owl win over the Pats:

65  Darius Holland  DT  Colorado

66  William Henderson  RB  North Carolina

73  Brian Williams  LB   Southern California

90  Antonio Freeman  WR  Virginia Tech

 

We're due to strike it again. Accumulate all the third round picks we can!

Edited April 23, 2020 by Dubz41