Baltimore Ravens 2020 NFL Draft Thread

[Danand]

39 minutes ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

Did you watch his runs in the second half of the Wisconsin game, he was making cuts in the middle of the handoff because backside was over pursuing. They were really selling out to stop him.

I can't find the play you are talking about in the clip above. I like his play at the 5. minute mark and at 7.14. Those are really good plays.

[diamondbull424]

8 hours ago, Danand said:

I don't want to be overly negative, but that Wisconsin game didn't convince me, that we got a differencemaker which we didn't have already. There are a couple of nice runs, where he makes people miss, but he mostly exploits outside runs for bigger gains.

He was a huge liability in pass pro in this game

Pass blocking is a note weakness for him, but really it’s not a big deal, pass blocking was a huge weakness for Ray Rice as well... but it doesn’t matter because of how dangerous a) Jackson is if you blitz him and miss (unlike Flacco) and b) JKD similar to Rice was an underutilized weapon as a receiver out of the backfield... I’ve seen him consistently shred LBs in space running routes. Ray Rice wasn’t so dangerous because he was an awesome pass blocker... he was so dangerous because he was so good as an outlet, that you didn’t even want him truly pass blocking... just working as a decoy... JKD is the same.

4 hours ago, Danand said:

I don't see that great vision to be honest. Obviously I haven't seen too much on him, but in that Wisconsin game - either due to lack of vision or patience, he ran into traffic when the outside/inside lane was open. 

I see a one cut runner who can get up field quick and has that slash n' dash ability while still being physical enough to break arm tackles

Wisconsin was top 10 in run defense in the nation. They were run blitzing the entire game. They averaged 3.5 ypc for their run defense last season. Which is impressive considering JK Dobbins played them twice and went for:

1st game:
20 carries, 163 yds rushing, 8.2 ypc, 2 TDs

2nd game (championship): 
33 carries, 172 yds rushing, 5.2 ypc, 1 TD

Overall:
53 carries, 335 yds rushing, 6.3 ypc, 3 TDs

So all in all JKD nearly doubles their seasonal defensive YPC average... and if we remove the Ohio State games from the equation, I’m sure he more than doubles it.

JKD also went for 18 carries, 174 yds rushing, 9.7 ypc, 1 TD against Clemsons top 10 ranked rushing defense as well.

Notice how Ohio State was losing against Wisconsin until they started to feed Dobbins more and he got them back in the game. Notice how when JKD was healthy Ohio State was on pace to destroy Clemson... they had no answer for his acceleration.

Lastly, vision is a definite strength. I mean the first two runs of the Wisconsin game I posted are high level runs.

Look at him as he follows his correct hole and then cuts it inside the defender in short space to get the first down... a back without vision (such as Justice Hill) would’ve cut that to the outside where the defender had proper leverage and likely gotten tackled two yards short of the first down or ridden out of bounds just behind the line.

Second run. Look at Dobbins facing a stacked LOS and when he initially hasn’t a hole so in limited space he fakes uses the stutter step to quickly open up the defender and allow his pulling blocker to capitalize on the defenders loss in leverage and he clears himself a crease to sliver through that gets him an additional 3 yards off that run. A back with terrible patience and vision would’ve run into the back of his pulling guard and gotten stuffed for a two yard gain.

And again Dobbins isn’t a good pass blocker, but Justin Fields has terrible pocket presence. He doesn’t feel the pressure coming until the last second in too many cases. There was a play where Dobbins releases out of the backfield and Fields is seeing obvious pressure, holds onto the ball, when he could’ve rolled left, and hit Dobbins as an outlet, but because he felt the pressure late he panics and tries to catch the first down on the ground when he’s not fast enough. So while Dobbins isn’t good, Fields terrible pocket presence enhances the problem on that front.

[Danand]

I don't see the same in those two examples on the first runs in the Wisconsin game. He runs through the right hole indeed and goes for 5 yards untouched and then cuts inside and gets additional 5-6 yards. Nothing wrong with that. What Hill or another RB would have done and their limitations are just speculation. Gus Edwards or Ingram would have used those 5-6 yards to run over the poor DB for similar gain perhaps.

I might read it wrong, but in the second run, I can't see him wait for his puller. I see him immediately go up field and the puller from the left crosses his face and Dobbins go up behind the center.

Nevertheless, I don't doubt Dobbins has some talent, but in relation to his draft position, I can't see how we got a lot of value in the 2. round compared to what we got.

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, Danand said:

I can't find the play you are talking about in the clip above. I like his play at the 5. minute mark and at 7.14. Those are really good plays.

Forget the second half... just 49 seconds into the game. Dobbins faces an inside run blitz that SHOULD have gone for a TFL, but after his guard gets destroyed his elite burst allows him to quickly engage the LOS and as the defender gets free he spins off his tackle and gets 2 1/2 yards on a play that was well contested. Vision and reaction time is superb.

Pass blocking look at JKD at 2.24 and how he fills on Orr and stops his initial momentum... that’s about as good a pass block you’ll see there, Fields responsibility is to get the football out in that situation l, he holds the ball and gets destroyed by Orr on a play that Dobbins actually did a quality job in pass protection. 2.36 talk about excellent vision and reaction time... two defenders meet him immediately in the backfield and a 3rd/4th are at the LOS after he receives the handoff, this should be a loss of 4 yards... Dobbins jukes the first guy, then spins past the second defender, and then gets back to the LOS where he’s met by two defenders... this is a play we saw ALL THE TIME from Saquan Barkley coming out of Penn State. How is this not ridiculous RB vision????? Thats legit A+ vision right there. You can’t do any better on such a play with what his OL handed him.

Next play we’ve got JKD in pass pro against Zack Baun.. once again the pressure is obvious and JKD fills and stops Baun’s momentum... it’s not a good block by any means but it was enough to provide Fields enough time to anticipate his receivers on their crossing pattern. Fields once again holds onto the ball and of course Baun gives JKD the work and sacks Fields. But that’s a play where Fields was provided enough time to find two of his receivers for short 5 yard gains on those crossers, he held onto the ball, terrible processing.

5:46 Dobbins is finally provided with a big crease by the OL but he doesn’t just get the yards they provide him, he should’ve gotten only 1 yard pass the first down if he had terrible vision... instead he jukes two defenders to add an additional 12 yards to the play. Great vision.

The very next play we see Wisconsin TOTALLY selling out to stop him like noted above from @Boodgyman5220, multiple run blitzes, and that Ohio State OL is completely overwhelmed. No matter check out the play at 6:00, this is INSANE VISION. Run blitz as well, Wisconsin is selling out defensive left, the run is designed to go in that direction... Dobbins sees the the overpursuit... waits for his pulling guard to displace Zack Baun in the backfield, then he jukes left for the lane... then he executes a backwards jump stop on a dime to displace his defender in space, then another juke to the left to pick up another two yards on his defender... if not for the other defender coming into play so aggressively that’s a first down run.

The play at 6:43 where the production team screws up and doesn’t get back to the play in time, we see him juke another defender in the backfield and jump over him. This is another would be TFL or 1 yard gain that Dobbins turns into a 7 yard gain with superb vision and reaction quickness.

The play at 7:14 where JKD is definitely gassed (as well as the defense) we see him jump cut to the left and then carries like 3-4 tired defenders some 6-7 yards for a first down. The vision on this play is apparent.

All this adds up to a RB who has great to elite running instincts. I mean his RB vision is a definite strength and is top 3 in this RB class quite easily and honestly it just might be the best, but I would have to rewatch a few more backs again before making that claim.

[SalvadorsDeli]

25 minutes ago, Danand said:

I don't see the same in those two examples on the first runs in the Wisconsin game. He runs through the right hole indeed and goes for 5 yards untouched and then cuts inside and gets additional 5-6 yards. Nothing wrong with that. What Hill or another RB would have done and their limitations are just speculation. Gus Edwards or Ingram would have used those 5-6 yards to run over the poor DB for similar gain perhaps.

Maybe it just comes down to a difference in evaluation but I've never thought of Gus as being a particularly powerful back, and certainly can't really think of too many occasions where I've seen him really move the pile forward in a huge way the way you're describing here. To me he's a very limited back from a physical standpoint - he doesn't really possess eye popping speed, power, or athleticism attributes - who makes up for that with outstanding vision and patience as a runner. In Roman's system and particularly when Lamar is at QB, you know the holes are going to be there that vision/patience is particularly more useful than athleticism/wiggle/running talent on its own, which is why he was able to kick Alex Collins to the curb and keep Justice Hill off the field despite both of them having raw traits that would make them more dangerous runners. He's a runner who will give you exactly what the blocking sets him up to get and what the defense gives him. He won't make many guys miss or break a ton of tackles to pick up extra yardage, but he also isn't going to run down blind alleys or make bad situations worse trying to bounce things outside or otherwise try the ill-advised spectacular.  

All of that lends itself to Gus being an effective runner in our system, but I do think there's a higher level that can be achieved if you marry Gus's intangibles - the vision, the patience, the intelligence - to someone with a more impressive athletic profile. That appears to be what they think Dobbins is. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[diamondbull424]

24 minutes ago, Danand said:

I don't see the same in those two examples on the first runs in the Wisconsin game. He runs through the right hole indeed and goes for 5 yards untouched and then cuts inside and gets additional 5-6 yards. Nothing wrong with that. What Hill or another RB would have done and their limitations are just speculation. Gus Edwards or Ingram would have used those 5-6 yards to run over the poor DB for similar gain perhaps.

I might read it wrong, but in the second run, I can't see him wait for his puller. I see him immediately go up field and the puller from the left crosses his face and Dobbins go up behind the center.

Nevertheless, I don't doubt Dobbins has some talent, but in relation to his draft position, I can't see how we got a lot of value in the 2. round compared to what we got.

It’s not speculation, I’ve poured over plenty enough of Justice Hills gametape from when he was leaving OKSU to know that’s exactly how he would run it. I’ve seen it time and again. He’s then taken that same weakness to the NFL level with multiple runs of similar nature where he gets tackled. Is there any wonder why he was the only one of our RBs to average under 5 YPC (3.9 YPC). His terrible vision isn’t “speculation” it’s a reality. Not even the Lamar effect has helped him because of that limitation.

In terms of how you view those plays... I don’t know how to help. I’ll just post this and be done with it.

Ray Rice was doing the same things as JK Dobbins (only this is a highlight video and not gametape so naturally it’s going to find only his best plays... I can’t find the tape of his from back then.)

When he gets blocked to the second level he’s creating additional yards. Both can use some leg drive to move guys, but weren’t the best in short yardage situations as runners. That’s where Ingram and Gus Edwards would come in handy as Willis McGahhe and LeRon McClain came in handy for Ray Rice.

The other major difference is that Rice has similar speed to D’Andre Swift, enough speed to generally challenge the second level but when given a hole he can accelerate past second level defenders, but not separate from third layer defenders... Dobbins has that speed to do that. Had he been at the combine he runs probably a 4.38s forty. He has the speed to house it when given a legit crease.

Edited May 1, 2020 by diamondbull424

[diamondbull424]

I will say this, just like I did with Ray Rice when he had his second round detractors... I’m willing to guarantee that JK Dobbins ends up with at least 1500 YFS by the end of his second year in the league (outside of a serious injury that can’t be predicted)... otherwise I will quit the forum... and I won’t come back until he does provide such a season.

This notion that he’s either nothing special or doesn’t have good vision I find to be pretty crazy, thus I’d rather just guarantee what I see. Within five years he’s got the potential to execute multiple 2000 YFS seasons. That I won’t guarantee (as a lot has to go right for that and we may try and protect him from that many touches to extend his career). JKD is the truth.

Edited May 1, 2020 by diamondbull424

[Ray Reed]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

I will say this, just like I did with Ray Rice when he had his second round detractors... I’m willing to guarantee that JK Dobbins ends up with at least 1500 YFS by the end of his second year in the league (outside of a serious injury that can’t be predicted)... otherwise I will quit the forum... and I won’t come back until he does provide such a season.

This notion that he’s either nothing special or doesn’t have good vision I find to be pretty crazy, thus I’d rather just guarantee what I see. Within five years he’s got the potential to execute multiple 2000 YFS seasons. That I won’t guarantee (as a lot has to go right for that and we may try and protect him from that many touches to extend his career). JKD is the truth.

Well let’s all hope your bullishness about JK comes to fruition better than your bullishness on JJ Arćega Whiteside from last year 😝 for the team’s sake 

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Well let’s all hope your bullishness about JK comes to fruition better than your bullishness on JJ Arćega Whiteside from last year 😝 for the team’s sake 

True. But this time last season (well probably more like June/July but still) I also mentioned that I thought Lamar Jackson would be in the MVP conversation and that was touted as an incredibly bold take... while it was, he ended up in the conversation, and eventually became the second ever unanimous MVP.

That said there’s no hiding from the JJAW failure. In my defense even the best WR evaluators are probably only 50% right. So I’ll take failing at what’s been my most difficult position to evaluate. Plus two different QBs and offenses. Receivers are a very capricious position. One could succeed in one place and be bad elsewhere.

RB however, I feel is my strongest position for sure. I like the top 5 backs in this class. CEH, Swift, Taylor, Moss, and JKD. I see Swift as the one that I think will be best for a longer period of time, while Taylor and JKD have the highest potential output... both are capable of 2k YFS seasons... which is why guaranteeing 1500 YFS doesn’t feel like a big risk. He’s got two years to accomplish the feat. The only slight risk is this season being shortened leading to him likely seeing less carries to start. But by the end of the season his talent will shine through. If Ingram can get 1265 YFS... no way JK Dobbins can’t get in additional 235 yds from taking a few more runs the distance over the course of a 16/17 game season.

[Boodgyman5220]

13 hours ago, Danand said:

I can't find the play you are talking about in the clip above. I like his play at the 5. minute mark and at 7.14. Those are really good plays.

Yes. 7.14 is the play I’m talking about. Maybe an over exaggeration of at the handoff, but a great early cut seeing the over pursuit to pick up 9 yards! I think this play alone shows his vision!

[Danand]

Ofc, dobbins can reach 1500 yards on a season, but on how many Carries receptions? 

 

If gus Edwards suddenly isn't a physical and powerful runner, then I don't know what to say 

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, Danand said:

Ofc, dobbins can reach 1500 yards on a season, but on how many Carries receptions? 

 

If gus Edwards suddenly isn't a physical and powerful runner, then I don't know what to say 

The only thing that makes this a tougher ask is because 1.) greater output equals less efficiency and 2.) his running mate.

1.) What I mean is if JK Dobbins hits say 2000 YFS in year two, but does it with 350 touches for a 5.8 YPT average... and I promise 1500+ YFS on a 6.0 YPT average... that would technically be a failed promise. However if he’s right at that 1500 YFS mark due to a strong RB rotation, then I would certainly feel comfortable with saying he would do it on roughly 250 touches, which equates to a 6.0 YPT, similar YPT numbers as we’ve seen with some of the most efficient runners that also have explosive ability.

2.) While I’m confident JKD will be a beast regardless I have no idea what his running mate situation might be a year from now. Mark Ingram could conceivably, like so many other RBs, experience a serious decline this season to the point where his 2021 season with the team is in doubt... or maybe because he’s been protected by being in RB rotations... he doesn’t experience that decline until the following season. We also don’t know if Gus Edwards gets traded to another team this season. So without knowing that it’s harder to predict efficiency. Will the defense be more worn out when he gets his touches?

So I would feel comfortable guaranteeing his YPT would likely be above 5.5 YPT or higher. With about 0.5 being something I could see going in either direction. Which said another way I think in such a season he could finish anywhere between 5.5 to 6.5 YPT on the year.

Which is to say I believe that if JK Dobbins gets the same number of touches as Mark Ingram got in 2019 (230 touches) than as opposed to finishing at 1265 yards, I see Dobbins right at or on the cusp of 1500 YFS. Anywhere between 230-250 touches should get him there IMO.

[diamondbull424]

On 5/2/2020 at 8:55 AM, Danand said:

Ofc, dobbins can reach 1500 yards on a season, but on how many Carries receptions? 

 

If gus Edwards suddenly isn't a physical and powerful runner, then I don't know what to say 

He definitely always finishes forward. But I think there’s something to what @BaltimoreTerp is arguing. Gus Edwards isn’t called “Gus the Bus” for no reason, but in short yardage situations because of how high he runs and his lack of top notch burst, he’s not an elite bruising back like a Nick Chubb or Ricky Williams or Ezekiel Elliot (from 2018). Like if I needed to convert 4th and 1, he’s certainly not my first choice of backs I would go to). I would actually take Ingram over him if the goal is 4th and 1 because he’s got better leverage and body lean.

I mean as effective as Edwards has been for us during His tenure here, his career high in TDs scored in a season is 2. If he were an elite or even a great power back, I’m sure he would be our primary TD vulture stealing scores from our other runners left and right. Either he’s great and the coaches just see fit to not utilize him in that role... or similar to when he’s gotten stuffed in short yardage situations in key downs... he just hasn’t produced (in practice).

While I don’t think Dobbins is as powerful as Gus to carry dudes, I think his explosion makes him similarly effective in short yardage situations. That said, again I would trust Ingram more. So while I think by the end of 2020, JKD may have stolen the stronger portions of touches from Ingram, I see Ingram as the obvious TD vulture.

Edited May 4, 2020 by diamondbull424
Fixing the autocorrect from my phone

[diamondbull424]

On 5/1/2020 at 3:29 PM, Ray Reed said:

Well let’s all hope your bullishness about JK comes to fruition better than your bullishness on JJ Arćega Whiteside from last year 😝 for the team’s sake 

Just throwing this out there... his site is my go-to analytics site. So yeah... I’m not off the bandwagon yet. But his rookie season certainly didn’t help the confidence in him.

[baltimoreRebel]

Let's go!