1.22 - MIN: Justin Jefferson WR/LSU (Jersey #18)

[Heimdallr]

NFL.com listed his comparison as Greg Jennings. Reggie Wayne fits too

[battle2heaven]

Are we not going to mention what  a big game stud he is also?

 

7/115/1td vs Georgia

14/227/4tds vs Oklahoma

9/106 vs Clemson

[Krauser]

Brett Kollman’s mock draft video (which later on here correctly predicts Gladney to the Vikings, much as he predicted the Hughes pick in 2018) had Jefferson going to the Eagles at 21.

It’s worth watching, his bourbon-soaked reasoning for the Eagles picking Jefferson also applies to the Vikings offense:

that should start at the right time, but if not, it’s at 1:20:04.

His point idea is that a receiver like Jefferson makes it easy to stay in 2 WR sets, because he can line up anywhere from the backfield (H-back) to the slot to outside.

Like the Eagles, the Vikings mostly use 2 WR sets, either 12 personnel or 21 personnel (2 TEs or 2 RB/FB). Having both Thielen and Jefferson be one-on-one matchup challenges from the slot makes it that much harder for the teams to defend that scheme, especially if they have to account for RPOs or play action from an effective run game. And that’s especially true if both WRs good blockers (more true for Thielen than the Eagles receivers), and if the TE/FB options are all good receivers (which is why I wanted Blasingame over Ham last year).

So the Vikings might be able to make very good use of Jefferson and Irv Smith in somewhat similar roles, lining up inside and outside, presnap motion setting up blocking in the run game, creating one-on-one matchups against shorter DBs or slower footed LBs, and giving Kirk some reliable short to medium options to keep the chains moving.

 

[Dolmonite26]

@Krauser that helps settle my biggest concern about Jefferson, which is that him and Thielen are potentially redundant and the offese still lacks a boundary threat.

I think the last part is still true in that none of the players on the roster resemble the skill set that Diggs represented as an explosive down field threat. Obviously we shouldn't expect anyone to match his overall skill set, but I'd like to see the team double dip fairly early and get a guy who can fill that role (KJ Hamler perhaps). Honestly anybody who get Sharpe off the roster is a plus imo

[PrplChilPill]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Who says Jefferson has the character problems Diggs does?  With Jefferson they get a Diggs clone potentially without the attitude and behavior problems.  Do people forget how big of a pain in the butt Diggs was in terms of his outbursts on the sidelines and odd damn social media personality.  I seriously doubt Jefferson will post stuff on social media when he does not get the football enough.  Oh and Jefferson is cheaper than Diggs as well.  Could the void have been filled 2nd or 3rd round?  Maybe but that is a big *** maybe.

 

Only OL there worth while was Josh Jones and clearly he dropped for a reason, maybe he could play OG in this system maybe not.  And maybe they are working on a trade for Trent Williams who knows.  Either way Jefferson fills a massive need and so does Gladney, so onto the next need and they have multiple shots at filling them with a ton of draft picks coming up.

 

Clearly the Vikings like Samia a lot more than most realize.  And again who at OG would have been picked there?  All of these guards are still on the board and one could easily be around for the Vikings in round 2 or 3.  Could argue no pure OG was picked in the first round honestly, so they are all still there in the 2nd, Ruiz maybe could play OG but I think he ends up as a C in the NFL.

 

Jonah Jackson Ohio State GS
Netane Muti Fresno State RS JR
John Simpson Clemson
Lloyd Cushenberry LSU JR
Jack Driscoll Auburn
Shane Lemieux Oregon RS
Logan Stenberg Kentucky RS
Damien Lewis LSU
Ben Bredeson Michigan

Why didn't Samia play last year if they like him so much?

[SemperFeist]

11 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

Why didn't Samia play last year if they like him so much?

He may not have been ready. Was there a reason to bench Josh Kline?

Why didn’t Mahomes play in 2017 if the Chiefs liked him so much?

These guys are 20-23 years old. They’re growing, they’re developing, they’re learning. These things don’t need to be rushed, and these players aren’t always drafted for immediate return. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by SemperFeist

[Ozzy]

8 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

Why didn't Samia play last year if they like him so much?

Do I work for the Minnesota Vikings?  I do not, and I do not know why, maybe because they signed Kline to that crazy high priced contract.  All I know is that there has been talk that they really like him and must expect him to start next season and be capable at it, why else would they cut Kline like they did?  

[Krauser]

10 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

@Krauser that helps settle my biggest concern about Jefferson, which is that him and Thielen are potentially redundant and the offese still lacks a boundary threat.

I think the last part is still true in that none of the players on the roster resemble the skill set that Diggs represented as an explosive down field threat. Obviously we shouldn't expect anyone to match his overall skill set, but I'd like to see the team double dip fairly early and get a guy who can fill that role (KJ Hamler perhaps). Honestly anybody who get Sharpe off the roster is a plus imo

Thielen is really good outside and does threaten deep.

Jefferson does have the speed to run go routes and the ball skills to make plays downfield, does it a few times on his highlight reel.

I agree they could use a fast WR4 (assuming Bisi is WR3) to come in and run a handful of go routes per game, the way they tried to use Hollins at the end of last year. But their scheme is a 2 WR offense: WR1 and 2 are premium positions, everyone below them on the depth chart is more of a backup than a rotational player. So I don’t expect them to draft another receiver until day 3, for depth.

[whitehops]

18 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

@Krauser that helps settle my biggest concern about Jefferson, which is that him and Thielen are potentially redundant and the offese still lacks a boundary threat.

I think the last part is still true in that none of the players on the roster resemble the skill set that Diggs represented as an explosive down field threat. Obviously we shouldn't expect anyone to match his overall skill set, but I'd like to see the team double dip fairly early and get a guy who can fill that role (KJ Hamler perhaps). Honestly anybody who get Sharpe off the roster is a plus imo

both thielen and jefferson have enough speed to win deep (jefferson ran a faster 40 than diggs did at the combine). it's more just that jefferson as a boundary receiver is kind of a question mark, as he moved inside last season. 

 

i'm not worried about either of them tbh, they both have the athletic ability and technique to fill the deep threat role, and their versatility is a plus imo, instead of getting someone who specializes as a deep threat.

 

that said, i love KJ Hamler and would be awfully tempted for the vikings to take him at 58 even though they have more pressing needs now that they've taken jefferson and gladney. like krauser said, the WR3/4 won't see the field enough to warrant a second round pick on one, even if they have the talent Hamler does.

Edited April 24, 2020 by whitehops

[Dolmonite26]

Just to clear up my comment, I agree with both of you that Thielen can do what I'm asking and Jefferson profiles very similarly to Thielen.

I've been hoping for a complementary down field threat since last year, but the fact that they run mostly 2 wr sets abates that a little

[PrplChilPill]

I hope I was clear. This isn't about Jefferson being a good player or not for me. It's about what fits best on this roster, that is run first and defense based and under used Diggs last year.....WR in round 1 just seems like an odd choice given their strategy. If you have a strategy (say, KC saying "we are going to be the best offense ever"), you need to build your team that way. I just don't see how round 1 WR aligns with their strategy (or tactics even). 

[RpMc]

8 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

I hope I was clear. This isn't about Jefferson being a good player or not for me. It's about what fits best on this roster, that is run first and defense based and under used Diggs last year.....WR in round 1 just seems like an odd choice given their strategy. If you have a strategy (say, KC saying "we are going to be the best offense ever"), you need to build your team that way. I just don't see how round 1 WR aligns with their strategy (or tactics even). 

He is a fit schematically with a run first team with his ability to block in the box, be utilized on crossing routes out of play-action and work the short/intermediate areas and extend after the catch. 
 

He’s another threat to force teams out of base personnel and take a player out of the box which both help in the run game. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by RpMc

[Cearbhall]

1 hour ago, PrplChilPill said:

Why didn't Samia play last year if they like him so much?

That is a great question. It isn't like they would have had to bench the starter to get Samia in there. Kline, and Elflein for that matter, missed games with injuries. Instead, the team plugged in Dozier and still didn't even have Samia active as a backup iirc. This is the main reason why I have doubts that the Vikings are enamored with Samia.

The seemingly irrational hope for Samia being one of the starters reminds me of a couple years earlier when people had similar seemingly irrational hope for Danny Isidora. And for the seemingly irrational hope people clung to that Pat Elflein would suddenly not suck if he moved to guard. I mean, sure any of those things are possible; it is just that I find that to be a terrible way to plan. Hoping for the best is good to do while planning for something less than the best.

Maybe this is the year that the people hoping for all of the Vikings offensive line pieces to positively answer the question marks they have will be right. It has been going on for a long time. A stopped clock...

Justin Jefferson I do see as a good pick for the Vikings. He has as good a chance as anyone they picked there becoming an above average starter in the league. That is to say, he has about a 50% chance of being worth the first round pick. I sure hope the team realizes that and has a decent contingency plan in case Jefferson can't contribute much this year -- a very real possibility given the lack of offseason program. That same logic would be true with an offensive linemen, which is why I am a proponent not of drafting out of needs for this year but drafting out of a projection of what the team will need next year.

Jefferson can backup Sharpe until he proves to be the better option. Hopefully that doesn't take long.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Cearbhall

[Krauser]

9 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

It's about what fits best on this roster, that is run first and defense based and under used Diggs last year.

They didn’t underuse Diggs last year. He played all the time and had nearly half of the targets that went to WRs. He was the go-to option in most high leverage situations.

The offense was efficient but not prolific, so Diggs counting stats were only OK compared to WRs on teams that threw more. But he was still arguably the MVP on offense last year.

The scheme requires 2 good WRs. They only had one. It was a huge need. 

[y*so*blu]

So you think you can dance, Justin?

Good. Please help us.

Edited April 24, 2020 by y*so*blu