1.22 - MIN: Justin Jefferson WR/LSU (Jersey #18)

[PrplChilPill]

2 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

If pick 25 was used on Jefferson, I’m sure there would be much less concern. Because the narrative is they used the pick for Diggs to get another WR “who will never be as good as Diggs.”

Not for me. This is not a passing team, and the OL is bleh, as is the DL right now. They have had good luck taking WR later.......they need DBs. 

[Uncle Buck]

15 hours ago, Heimdallr said:

and the other player could end up busting out of the league and being as productive as Treadwell.

I'd say that there are VERY few people who see that happening for Jefferson. 

[vikingsrule]

8 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

Not for me. This is not a passing team, and the OL is bleh, as is the DL right now. They have had good luck taking WR later.......they need DBs. 

There are other positions I would have gone over a WR. However, you still have to have two good starting WRs. Given the number of picks in rounds two and three and the fact we had two first round picks, I’m not overly concerned about using a first on a WR. If they feel Jefferson can contribute right away and isn’t a project, it will probably be a good pick. Of resources were more limited, I’d be in more agreement. Based on value, I didn’t necessarily see it with the available OL. Might have been a bit soon for some of the DTs. Obviously they weren’t super high at DE at 22 or 31, after Chaisson was selected. I would have been more pleased with Gross Matos there but I can’t criticize going WR there.

[whitehops]

in laquon treadwell's 53-game career, he has 65 receptions,  701 yards and 2 touchdowns. what are the odds jefferson beats all those numbers in his rookie season alone?

[vikingsrule]

5 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I'd say that there are VERY few people who see that happening for Jefferson. 

Jefferson is a much better athlete than Treadwell ever was. Treadwell bullied college DBs and that didn’t translate to the NFL. 

[Uncle Buck]

As someone who was on the Denzel Mims train, I would like to just go on record right here and say that I am very content with the selection of Justin Jefferson, and I think he is going to have a very good career with the Vikings.  He will have a better career than Stefon Diggs had for our team. 

[battle2heaven]

Nice video on how nuanced Jefferson is with his route running:

 

 

[Cearbhall]

15 minutes ago, whitehops said:

in laquon treadwell's 53-game career, he has 65 receptions,  701 yards and 2 touchdowns. what are the odds jefferson beats all those numbers in his rookie season alone?

I wouldn't give him good odds of beating that in his rookie season, but just the fact that it isn't completely implausible says something about the (lack of) value the Vikings got out of the Treadwell selection.

It is also not implausible that the Vikings get less out of Jefferson than they got out of Treadwell. Again, that is pretty thin odds.

[PrplChilPill]

23 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

There are other positions I would have gone over a WR. However, you still have to have two good starting WRs. Given the number of picks in rounds two and three and the fact we had two first round picks, I’m not overly concerned about using a first on a WR. If they feel Jefferson can contribute right away and isn’t a project, it will probably be a good pick. Of resources were more limited, I’d be in more agreement. Based on value, I didn’t necessarily see it with the available OL. Might have been a bit soon for some of the DTs. Obviously they weren’t super high at DE at 22 or 31, after Chaisson was selected. I would have been more pleased with Gross Matos there but I can’t criticize going WR there.

Completely fair. We just don't agree, that's all.

[Sir Fobos]

Jefferson is a good fit and a good value, but I was REALLY hoping a good OL/DL would slip to #22. Rick made the most out of a less-than-stellar situation.

[dc_vikingfan]

I was on the wait and draft a WR in round 2 or 3. It's a deep draft why the rush. However, while not a huge Jefferson fan his style of play. Those players usually at worst becomes solid WR3 options as potential careers.  He could be a star and this team needed a WR. Kirk loves route runners and expect Kirk to give him plenty of chances

Edited April 24, 2020 by dc_vikingfan

[Krauser]

3 hours ago, battle2heaven said:

Nice video on how nuanced Jefferson is with his route running:

 

That's really good. 

The Keenan Allen comparison makes a lot of sense -- he does that fast-slow-fast thing, makes him very hard to cover. 

Arif's analytics article on the Athletic is very encouraging: 

Quote

 

His college profile in that regard actually looks more diverse than one might expect after glancing at his biggest criticisms. His senior season saw slot usage of 81.1 percent, per Sports Info Solutions, and an average depth of target (ADOT) of 8.7 yards — a remarkably low depth of target. That’s still just a stylistic question instead of a talent one, however. There are some encouraging comparables from the 2019 NFL season based on that.

PLAYER	SLOT%	ADOT	YPRR	DROP RATE	CONTESTED CATCH%	YAC/CATCH
Justin Jefferson	81	8.7	2.64	5.8	92.3	6.4
Anthony Miller	77.7	10.2	1.4	7.1	44.4	4.3
Jamison Crowder	76.4	8.1	1.58	9.3	38.5	4.7
DeDe Westbrook	83.5	7.2	1.2	5.7	22.2	4.7
Cole Beasley	74.8	8.1	1.64	8.2	50	5.1
Albert Wilson	79.7	5.4	1.13	10.4	50	4.2
Stefon Diggs (2018)	22	9.8	1.72	1	64	4.3
Danny Amendola	77.3	8.8	1.51	7.5	0	3.6
Michael Thomas	29.9	8.2	2.88	3.9	63.6	3.9
Jarvis Landry	22.6	10.5	2.04	5.7	48.3	5.2
Jarius Wright	81.1	10.8	0.58	20	0	3.2

This gives us a model to see how 2019 Justin Jefferson looks like as an NFL player. There’s no true comparison to his usage value, because slot-dependent receivers rarely win contested catches as often as he did nor produce the kind of yards after the catch, but the idea is there if you combine these receivers together. Particularly interesting is Diggs, who was relegated to an underneath role with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo in 2018. The worst statistical year Diggs put together from an efficiency perspective, it wasn’t evidence that Diggs himself regressed — simply that the role depressed his numbers in a way somewhat reminiscent of Jefferson.

While the LSU receiver seems to primarily profile as an intermediate slot receiver who takes advantage of space — see his class-leading 91.3 PFF grade on receptions between 10 and 15 yards downfield — he’s performed a variety of roles in his career and performed them well.

His 2018 season saw him moving much further downfield while playing on the outside — he earned his breakout season at age 19 with a much deeper average depth of target of 13.6 yards downfield, playing primarily on the outside and earning just as many yards per route run. His 30 percent receiving share wasn’t an accident, nor was his ability to score 24 touchdowns over two years. There might be an explosive versatile receiver there that the Joe Brady system didn’t fully need to utilize.

The Vikings seemed to have grabbed a very talented receiver that was pigeonholed for the sake of the offense — good for LSU, but restricting for Jefferson. With the Vikings, he could do something else.

 

The bolded section there suggests Jefferson's production might have been held back by the slot-heavy role he was used in (in terms of efficiency like yards per route run -- obviously his total yards/TDs benefited from playing with Burrow in a pass-heavy scheme).

Like Diggs in 2018, Jefferson's statistical profile might have been misleading -- he was used a particular way because the offensive scheme required it, not because he couldn't do other things. Once Diggs' role was expanded in 2019, his production shot up (he was the highest YPRR in the league for most of the year, with historically high numbers, before tailing off in December).

The Vikings do have a previous example of success from drafting a young, athletic prospect from LSU whose college production was limited by his role. Danielle Hunter was statistically a poor pass rusher in college, only put up a handful of sacks. But he was mostly being asked to "mush rush", not reacting to the snap and 2-gapping the tackle more like a 3-4 DE. The Vikings put him in a true edge position, and he was extremely productive. 

I wonder if Jefferson might similarly have the ability to produce more downfield as a flanker / deep threat, despite not being asked to play that role in a college scheme that asked him mostly to run short crosses, option routes and slants off RPOs.

[Illadelegend215]

We were able to get who I feel the best oLineman in the draft is for us. Picking up some corners that could actually impact day one as well. With the way the draft played out, I feel a lot better about this pick tbh. 

[SemperFeist]

I’ve been watching some highlights of our draft picks and with Jefferson the power and elusiveness that he runs with after the catch is extremely impressive. 

Get him to work with Theilen and improve his route running and hands even more, and Jefferson is going to be an extremely dangerous receiver. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by SemperFeist

[Rockwall]

Reading though these posts I'm amazed of out of all the people that say they were "not thrilled" with this pick, and a  common reason being that  they didn't want a WR in the first round?

With all due respect, not the way to look at it fellas.  They drafted the BPA at a position of need.  Now if your complaint that you wished there had been an elite corner or elite defensive tackle there,  I hear ya, but that wasn't the case and we knew that going in. 

I think after AJ Terrell there was a drop off to the next tier of corners and honestly I thought Gladney was lumped in with several corners of equal rating, one being  Fulton who I barely had a 2nd round grade on.  In some ways it made no sense to take a corner in the first round unless you got Terrell.  Glad they traded back once at least, and I bet we could have traded down again if we were okay with getting either him or Jaylon Johnson. 

As for the Jefferson pick.  If we needed a slot receiver there would be a lot more people happy.  I was hoping Irv Smith make a big jump in year two.  He plays some slot.  Now we have him, Thielen and Jefferson as our three most dynamic receiving threats all as traditional slots?  Why not draft Aiyuk for his outside capabilities?  Shanahan thinks he's the next Isaac Bruce so surely it wasn't an ability thing.  Spielman always talks about scheme fit with every other draft choice.  Does Kubiac's offense need anything besides slot receivers? ?

So happy to land Cleveland.  If he makes the transition look as easy as O'Neil, we are looking great at the tackle spot for the next decade.