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CWood21

1.26 - Jordan Love [QB; Utah State]

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I mean, yeah if you think Rodgers has 2-3 years left, what are the odds of a QB you had a high grade on falling into your lap in those next couple years?  I admit I haven't done much advance look at the QB crop for 2022 but the people who have work in football.

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

The hubris in suggesting draft grades you saw in a global pandemic year is the same draft grade NFL teams had on players is ****ing astounding.  
 

Edit: Oops.  Thought I was in Josiah D. Thread.  Too lazy to change it.

It's ok, we all know who you're talking about.

Edited by MaximusGluteus

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On 5/12/2020 at 3:34 PM, {Family Ghost} said:

I don't see it (Packers dealing Rodgers after 2020 season) unless 2020 is a bust and Love shows so much talent that the team has to act.  Still, I would think the Packers would want a nice draft pick or two back as compensation from someone.  It might be hard for them to get it since others will probably know the various scenarios the Packers are faced with.  If the Packers are a strong playoff team in 2020 it will be very hard to justify dealing Rodgers.

The whole timing of the Love pick has never made a lot of sense to me .. I like the player, but think the timing is off by two years or so.  If this kid sits for three or four years the Packers will never realize the huge benefit of having a cheap starting QB.  

Agreed.  You're essentially saving a year of Love's rookie contract.  Is it worth giving up a top 10 QB for that?  No.  And it'd make more sense to try and tear down the books, which would mean massive dead cap by releasing guys like Adrian Amos, Preston Smith, etc.  Take a year of massive dead cap hits, and then have pretty much completely clean books.  The whole 2 year timeline seems the most realistic IMO.  You get two cheap years out of Love before extending him.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/12/2020 at 4:11 PM, Shanedorf said:

Yes
And a part of the calculation by the Packers front office was that they wouldn't often get a shot at a girl this hot because they'd be drafting so late over the next few seasons. All of those top OTs and top WRs pushed Love into their grasp - whereas they couldn't count on that happening over the next 1- 2 drafts.
It might have worked out to wait, but the odds were against it - so they seized the moment for a girl they wanted

NoteGirl.gif

Love wasn't pushed to the end of the first.  Other teams ahead of them just wanted contributors instead of developmental QBs with their 1st round pick and there were many teams who viewed him as a mid-round prospect.  There will be plenty of flawed traits-based QB available within reach after this year.

Edited by Patriotplayer90

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3 hours ago, Patriotplayer90 said:

Love wasn't pushed to the end of the first.  Other teams ahead of them just wanted contributors instead of developmental QBs with their 1st round pick and there were many teams who viewed him as a mid-round prospect.  There will be plenty of flawed traits-based QB available within reach after this year.

Good. NE will be in the market for one of them.

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10 hours ago, Patriotplayer90 said:

Love wasn't pushed to the end of the first.  Other teams ahead of them just wanted contributors instead of developmental QBs with their 1st round pick and there were many teams who viewed him as a mid-round prospect.  There will be plenty of flawed traits-based QB available within reach after this year.

That would literally be definition be pushed down.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

That would literally be definition be pushed down.

Not if you think he's the guy. Not saying I do but if ("IF, giant uppercase letters) they do the it makes all the sense in the world. Strike when the iron is hot. If you have a chance to grab your guy.  Get him. It's the most important position in all of sports. Take the chance.  

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On 12/05/2020 at 9:34 PM, {Family Ghost} said:

I don't see it (Packers dealing Rodgers after 2020 season) unless 2020 is a bust and Love shows so much talent that the team has to act.  Still, I would think the Packers would want a nice draft pick or two back as compensation from someone.  It might be hard for them to get it since others will probably know the various scenarios the Packers are faced with.  If the Packers are a strong playoff team in 2020 it will be very hard to justify dealing Rodgers.

The whole timing of the Love pick has never made a lot of sense to me .. I like the player, but think the timing is off by two years or so.  If this kid sits for three or four years the Packers will never realize the huge benefit of having a cheap starting QB.  

 

It depends on what grade the front office had on Love.

If they had him down as the 4th best QB of the class with a mid-to-late first round grade on him then completely agree, the timing of the pick doesn't make any sense whatsoever. There will be other Love type prospects in the next few years when the timing works far better.

If they truly believe in him and think he is a genuine elite prospect who should be going near the top of the 1st round then it absolutely makes sense as there is no guarantee we will get another shot at a top QB prospect for some time. Whilst I don't like the pick, if this is their belief then they have to back their own judgement and make the move.

By moving up to 26 and taking him when we had serious needs elsewhere, you have to believe its the latter. The concern in that case is why our evaluation is so out of sync with teams that need a QB. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

If they truly believe in him and think he is a genuine elite prospect who should be going near the top of the 1st round then it absolutely makes sense as there is no guarantee we will get another shot at a top QB prospect for some time. Whilst I don't like the pick, if this is their belief then they have to back their own judgement and make the move.

By moving up to 26 and taking him when we had serious needs elsewhere, you have to believe its the latter. The concern in that case is why our evaluation is so out of sync with teams that need a QB. 

You are putting too much weight on the shoulders of Love and those who were instrumental in drafting him, it's unrealistic. What you say makes sense only if you want to use Love this season, but the Packers don't need that - they don't even need him to play next season.

With that in mind, they are almost certainly NOT looking  at him as "a genuine elite prospect who should be going at the top of the 1st".

How they WILL be looking at him, is as a guy who has the tools and mind to develop into The Guy, a couple of years from now. He will have time to learn the playbook and experience the difference between college and NFL QBs. The high first round picks you describe should be more pro-ready than love is. Later first rounders are where the not-yet-NFL-ready, high-upside QBs tend to sit.

If he looks to them like the best developmental QB  among this and the next year's candidates, (counting those that are realistic targets), then they should have taken him and they did. Another way of saying that, is that they believed in him enough to not wait a year, not draft a current position of real need (like DL, RT, WR), and even to trade up for him when they thought he might be stolen by another team moving up. They must get the successor to AR, because like @wgbeethree said, having  a functional QB1 (and especially if he is a long-term answer) is more important than any other position. 

It's pretty obvious he is their guy of the future, if he develops. If not, in two years the Packers try again, but by then they might be wanting an instant starter, and getting that with a later 1st is unlikely. So, in that scenario they either keep Rodgers through 2022 (probably the best option) or they suck for a year starting a QB who just isn't ready yet.

As for your assertion: "The whole timing of the Love pick has never made a lot of sense to me .. I like the player, but think the timing is off by two years or so.  If this kid sits for three or four years the Packers will never realize the huge benefit of having a cheap starting QB." 

Well QBs you like don't come around to order, so you might not get a QB you like in the perfect year to acquire him. The timing is actually pretty good if you want to move on from Rodgers in two years (if Love turns out well) or three years (if Love fails and the Packers try again most likely with another QB who is also not ready straight away).  The sheer difficulty of getting a good QB argues for an approach that does not demand instant results and still has an 'out' of sorts if this pick fails. You are right about the Packers losing money because Love may not play until his third year, but a solid long-term plan is just as important, and losing some cheap rookie years is the price you pay for getting a QB who doesn't start out of the box.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That would literally be definition be pushed down.

Unfortunately, being a very flawed prospect and  being passed over by many teams for that reason doesn't count as being pushed down.  I guess Deguara was pushed down as well, even though he was viewed as a 6th round prospect.

Edited by Patriotplayer90

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18 minutes ago, Patriotplayer90 said:

Unfortunately, being a very flawed prospect and  being passed over by many teams for that reason doesn't count as being pushed down.  I guess Deguara was pushed down as well, even though he was viewed as a 6th round prospect.

It’s so sad that you post more in the GB forum than in your own forum. I know it’s dead and uneventful but it’s just getting pathetic now. 
 

Live look in @Patriotplayer90 in the Pats forum

giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f298ce110fe04aeb268d2

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28 minutes ago, Patriotplayer90 said:

Unfortunately, being a very flawed prospect and  being passed over by many teams for that reason doesn't count as being pushed down.  I guess Deguara was pushed down as well, even though he was viewed as a 6th round prospect.

Seems to like like a couple of teams were actively trying to trade up for Love, which means he was held in a higher regard as a first round pick.

Not sure if he was pushed down, or just a very good value for that draft slot.

Either way?  It doesn't matter.  He is ours now, and we must develop him.  And he has the ideal situation for that to happen.  I've got no issues with GB taking this route.  It isn't what I would have done, but I do understand it and I can get excited about the future.

I'd much rather have Love where we got him and in our situation than be the Jets when they got Darnold.  Guess I feel like if you want a young QB to succeed, let him ride pine and learn, then put him out there.  That seems to be the better route than drafting one high and putting him out there day one to fend for himself.  

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1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

Seems to like like a couple of teams were actively trying to trade up for Love, which means he was held in a higher regard as a first round pick.

Not sure if he was pushed down, or just a very good value for that draft slot.  

I think it was all of those things. If you're talking about him being pushed down, you would have to look at the teams ahead of us that you thought may have taken a QB(Car., Jax, possibly LV) if they had not already and none of them did. We've pretty much concluded that if we didn't trade up from 30, Indy may have leapfrogged us plus you consider who was behind us that had the draft capital to possibly move up and draft their potential QBOTF if they felt they saw the value sitting there at picks 27-29. Again, we think Indy would have done it and then Detroit and New England would be potential teams that could have moved up under those circumstances, especially New England with all the draft capital they had in this year's draft and the fact that they picked up draft capital by trading down and the fact that Belichick made multiple trades on Day 2.

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Posted (edited)

Man I bet the Colts are pissed at us, too.  They lose Luck, hope to get Love and then the Packers of all teams trade up and take him first.

Love would have been perfect for them.  

Edited by Outpost31

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I mean, the thing about Love is that the upside is phenomenal, but he's going to take some work and some time.  So he made the most sense for a team that had a guy in place who can sustain you until Love is ready.  I don't think you can make the pick if you're pitting Gardner Minshew against Jordan Love, since that's going to hurt both of those guys.

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